International Macroeconomics

Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar se a capacidade de resposta de política econômica foi fator relevante para minimizar a severidade da crise financeira de 2008, no primeiro ano do episódio. A hipótese é que países com mais espaço para políticas expansionistas registraram uma crise menos severa, tudo mais constante. Os resultados das regressões crosscountry corroboram com a hipótese em relação à política monetária. No que diz respeito à política fiscal, possivelmente, mesmo países com bons resultados fiscais podem ter limitações a estímulos keynesianos em função da tolerância ao seu nível de endividamento. Entretanto, a interação entre o resultado do governo central e a dívida bruta está em linha com a hipótese da pesquisa, uma vez que uma melhor gestão tanto do fluxo fiscal, quanto do estoque da dívida no ano anterior ao evento mostrou-se relevante. A adição da variável de investment grade às especificações ressaltou uma crise mais severa nas economias desenvolvidas. Palavras-Chave: Crise Financeira. Política Monetária. Política Fiscal. The financial crisis and the economic policy: could it have been different? Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse whether the economic policy response capability was a relevant factor for minimizing the 2008 financial crisis severity within its first year. The research hypothesis is that countries with a larger space for expansionary policies have registered a less severe crisis, holding everything else constant. The results from crosscountry regressions corroborate with the hypothesis for the monetary policy. In relation to the fiscal policy, the sign of the parameters was the opposite of what was expected, signaling that, even countries with good fiscal results can experience limitations to Keynesian stimulus due to debt intolerances. However, the interaction between central govern result and gross debt confirms the research hypothesis, whereas a better management of the fiscal flow and debt stock simultaneously seems to be relevant. Adding an investment grade variable to the specifications highlighted that the crisis was more severe within the developed economies.

The aim of this paper is to present an international finance view of the 2008 crisis. By relying on four traditional international finance classes of models (the intertemporal current account approach, two exchange rate risk premium models and open-economy economic policy models), we addresed, theoretically, the importance of macro-finance aspects of the episode such as portfolio reallocation and its aggregate effects, using data for supporting the claims. Moreover, by telling the story of the crisis, divided in three periods (Great Moderation, Great Recession and Euro Crisis) we provided an overview of the deployments as well as an understanding of the development from a slightly point of view.

Kata Kunci: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Penerimaan Pajak dalam Negeri, Pembentukan Modal Bruto, Inflasi
Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menguji dan menganalisis pengaruh penerimaan pajak dalam negeri, pembentukan modal bruto, dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Banyak teori mengatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi bergantung pada belanja pemerintah dari sisi fiskal, investasi untuk pembentukan modal bruto, dan inflasi dari sisi moneter. Akan tetapi belanja pemerintah sebagai stimulus sektor riil sangat bergantung pada penerimaan pajak sebagai sumber pembiayaan utama, terutama PPh dan PPN dimana kedua jenis pajak ini adalah penyumbang terbesar dalam penerimaan pajak dalam negeri. Sedangkan pembentukan modal bruto bisa menciptakan lapangan kerja dan penambahan produksi barang dan jasa. Inflasi bisa mengakibatkan menurunnya konsumsi masyarakat yang berimbas pada pengurangan produksi barang dan jasa

Si quieres saber cómo funcionará Argentina en poco tiempo
En el escenario positivo: solo tienes que estudiar qué llevo a que Roosevelt haga su New Deal y luego analizar en qué consistió.
En el escenario negativo analiza su historia y llegarás a esta conclusión: siempre que en un inicio de gobierno no se salió expandiendo, se terminó en alta o híper inflación y recesión.
No hay más escenarios posibles dada la deuda externa, las reservas, el desempleo de personas y la capacidad ociosa.

This paper examine the relation from remittances and trade to economic growth. Study applied time series econometric techniques; unit root, cointegration and error correction mechanism (ECM) to examine long-run and short-run association between dependent and independent variables during the period of 1976 to 2016. The results confirms a long-run relationship between remittance, trade and economic growth whereas no short-run causal relationship exists between remittances and economic growth, but trade shows significant influence even in the short run in GDP during the study period. It is expected that the findings would be useful to government and policy makers for internal policy formation in the area of utilization of remittance management of migration from Bangladesh.

Resumen Son numerosos los analistas, empresarios y demás agentes económi-cos que se cuestionan los efectos de los acuerdos de libre comercio so-bre la economía de sus países miembros. Tras diez años de la entrada en vigor del acuerdo de libre comercio entre los Estados Unidos, la República Dominicana y los países de Centroamérica (DR-CAFTA), los efectos del mismo todavía no son del todo concluyentes y ello es debido, principalmente, a la dificultad de aislar en el escenario inter-nacional los factores determinantes sobre la evolución del comercio y las estructuras productivas de las economías en general y, en particular , la de la República Dominicana. El análisis del comercio intrain-dustrial constituye una aproximación al estudio de dichos efectos. Los indicadores de comercio intraindustrial entre la República Dominica-na y los miembros del DR-CAFTA utilizados muestran que durante el período 2007-2013 dicho comercio es principalmente relevante en el intercambio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y, específicamente, en los sectores pertenecientes al régimen de las zonas francas, agrupados como manufactura industrial. Palabras clave: comercio intraindustrial; tratado de libre comercio.

Armenia has an open and small economy, which is exposed to effects of both direct and indirect effects of economic developments in the external world. This paper analyses the effects of two main shocks that can potentially occur and negatively effect Armenian economy. Those are external trade shock and external interest rate shock. To evaluate the size of the effects this paper uses Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), which is a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) made by IMF. The results of estimation show that both these shocks can have significant negative effects on macroeconomic indicators of national economy.

This paper aims to contribute to the current policy discussion on measures for achieving sustainable growth and the steady convergence of Western Balkan economies. A significant fall in demand and a strengthening of competitive pressures characterize the latest trends on the international markets. Western Balkan countries (WBC), whose economic growth models have been challenged in recent years, are faced with the challenge of more active inclusion in the international integration process, and one of the key factors in this path is the improvement in trade patterns and export competitiveness. The changes of export structure towards higher value added products are a precondition of a growth and export competitiveness. In this context, the ability of adjusting to new market circumstances and the development of economic cooperation are especially important for the achievement of continued growth in production and in exports. The paper attempts to identify factors that can contribute to these results, such as export performance, level of opening of the economies of these countries, foreign direct investment, domestic prices and costs and institutional and structural indicators. We conclude by summarizing measures and instruments for achieving export-driven economic development and by formulating policy recommendations such as: intensifying trade, greater focus on exports, focusing on FDI attraction policy, institution building and improvement of the overall business environment.

Research on the productivity effects of unionism over the last two decades has been lively, offering new insights to the theoretical and empirical relationship between these two labor market aggregates. Partly inspired by the controversial work of Freeman and Medoff (1979 and 1984), numerous empirical studies have examined the extent and direction of the union

Dans ce petit papier on va essayer d'émettre une critique sur l'étude de l'inflation dans la plupart des nos économies soit université • À propos de l'auteur MEDY NGOMA est économiste spécialiste de la monnaie , macroéconomie, inégalités, microéconomie , la redistribution informelle du revenu , le commerce international ,l'économie du développement ainsi que la psychologie économique. Chef de file de la psychologie économique au laboratoire mondiale sur la psychologie économique et et attaché au CRDD Auteur et essayiste.

ABSTRACT
Organic agricultural products still have a place for consumers, so that the organic rice has not
become a major food community. Heightened consumer awareness of the importance of
health and environmental protection so that the estimated demand for organic rice will
increase, but the available production has not been able to meet the needs of the market.
This study aimed to analyze the factors that influence the consumer's decision to buy organic
and non-organic rice. The study design filed 13 variables suspected to be the cause of
consumers buy organic and non-organic rice, using factor analysis. The questionnaire
addressed to 100 respondents, consisting of 50 respondents buyers of organic rice
and 50 non-organic rice buyer. Sampling was done by convenience sampling. The
results showed that formed three factors that influence the consumer's decision to buy
organic rice, namely 1) the factors of income and expenditure, 2) education and delivery
factors, and 3) the availability factor, vehicle ownership and external motivation. Based on the
factor scores, the highest is the education factor, the availability and delivery. The increasing
awareness of consumers to organic rice, and health is not determined the price, but rather the
availability and sustainability, followed by quality of service (service quality) in the form of
delivery
Keywords: Organic rice, Consumer decisions, Factor analysis, Availibity and
Sustainabality

In this work, the impact of oil price shocks on the stock exchanges of three countries in the Caspian Basin − Iran, Kazakhstan and Russia − was examined through a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. For the research, monthly data from the stock exchanges, the oil price, inflation, industrial production and exchange rates were collected between March 2005 and June 2018. According to the results of variance decomposition, in these three countries, the impact of negative oil price shocks on the stock exchanges was stronger than that of positive shocks, and constituted the largest source of changes in the three stock exchanges. In addition, according to the results of impulse response functions, the response of the stock exchanges in the three countries to negative oil shocks was highly significant. Consequently, these countries should avoid macroeconomic imbalances and falls in their stock exchanges due to the negative impact of the oil price, and should instead focus on industrial production that will contribute to exports. In this way, they can avoid the negative impact of oil price shocks on their stock exchanges.

Keywords: Caspian basin, Oil price shocks, Stock exchanges, Structural VAR
JEL classification: C5, G1, L5, Q4

The recent dynamics of the global, European and regional macro-financial indicators confirm the maturity of the post-crisis cycle. On the one hand, we point out that the escalation of the US–China trade tensions may precipitate the end of this cycle, as the downward trade for the global exports is already impacting the manufacturing sector (the engine of the economy) with unfavourable spill-over effect for the investment climate. On the other hand, the Digital Revolution has been gradually incorporated in both developed and developing countries, generating positive shocks in terms of total factor productivity. Overall, the expansionary policymix measures recently signalled across the main economies of the world (the USA, China, Euroland) express prospects for a normal end of the cycle. Looking at the European Union there can be noticed the performance of the Romanian economy during the post-crisis cycle, the country managed to double the nominal GDP from 2006 to 2018 and to increase the GDP/capita to above EUR 10,000 last year. In this paper, we implement standard econometric tools and use the Eurostat database in order to assess the recent developments and to identify the mid-run prospects for Romanian economy.

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A globális, európai és regionális makroszintű pénzügyi mutatók napjainkra tapasztalható dinamikája megerősíti azt a hipotézist, miszerint a növekedési ciklus elérte a csúcsát. Elemzésünkben egyrészt rámutatunk arra, hogy az Amerikai Egyesült Államok és Kína közötti feszültségek fokozódása e ciklus végét hozhatja el, mivel a globális export lefelé irányuló trendje már a gazdaság hajtóerejét, a feldolgozóipart befolyásolja kedvezőtlen irányba, ami hatással van a befektetési környezetre is. Másrészt a digitális forradalom fokozatosan teret hódít mind a fejlett, mind a fejlődő országokban, pozitív sokkokat generálva a teljes tényezőtermelékenység szempontjából. Összességében kijelenthető, hogy a világ legfontosabb gazdaságaiban (USA, Kína, euróövezet) bejelentett expanzív szakpolitikai intézkedések a ciklus nem sokkszerű végét sejtetik. Az Európai Unió szempontjából észrevehető teljesítményt ért el a román gazdaság a válság utáni növekedési ciklusban: az országnak 2006 és 2018 között sikerült megdupláznia a nominális GDP-jét, így az egy főre jutó bruttó hazai termék tavaly 10.000 euróra növekedett. Az elemzésben ökonometriai eszközöket használunk, az Eurostat adatbázisaira építve, hogy bemutassuk és elemezzük a legutóbbi időszak fejleményeit, és azonosítsuk a román gazdaság középtávú kilátásait.

In the practice of evaluation of investment projects, the technique of discounted cash flows applies on income with functions such as logistic or neoclassical functions, which tend to be adverse on remote-time flows. However, these functions are not necessarily representative of the long term pathway of projects which are part of portfolios closely related to innovation or events with long-run externalities, such as education or environment. This paper concludes that production functions with human capital and externalities may cause distant flows to take values other than zero and produce relevant alterations of investment decisions.

Since 2014, Portugal has experienced a phase of constant growth thanks to a series of policies that have improved both the domestic situation and the external position of the Portuguese economy. Yet, in doing so, Costa has repelled a "typical leftist" approach to economics that emphasizes growth and income distribution, deficit-financed and deliberately opposed to basic economic equilibria. Contrarily, he has sticked with a program of massive public finance overhaul and tax base broadening, in order to build a buffer against change in the business cycle and obtain more fiscal space to maneuver in the foreseeable future.

Back in 1991, India saw itself battling its most critical economic and currency crisis ever. The evidences indicate that current account deficits, investor confidence and some external factors played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. With the financial support of IMF and by carrying out economic reforms, India was able to tide over the crisis. This paper analyses Indian economy during the crisis period.