Academia.eduAcademia.edu
Chris Adolphus Esionwu Jnr. MEng in Aerospace Engineering and Astronautics, Kingston University London Chris.adolphus90@hotmail.co.uk https://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=250171770&trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile_pic 6. CUBESAT MARKET ANALYSIS 6.1.CubeSat Launch Frequency The 28 CubeSats constellation built by Planet Labs remains the largest number of CubeSats launched at a go, but the record breaking 33 CubeSats on board the ISS were the highest number to be deployed at the same time. A close study of the launch history of CubeSats in section four and Appendix A shows that there is no specified number of CubeSats that must be launched each year, this is because CubeSat launch depends on launch vehicle availability; a serious mission constraint which is discussed in section six. An institution might be lucky to find a free ride for their CubeSat, and that is how it goes on the record that one CubeSat was launched that day, five other institutions might find five spaces in a launch vehicle and then it goes on record too. Space companies such as NASA, ESA, and Aerospace Inc. etc. are the benefactors of CubeSat mission, and this is how it is currently. CubeSat launch has become frequent, but with different launch vehicles, therefore having an irregular schedule. This means that CubeSat owners have no say as to when their hardware leaves for space, for this reason ISIS and Newton Launch Systems are looking at ways to provide launch vehicles for CubeSats. Fig. 24 is a chart showing the number of CubeSats developed from 2003 to 2013, the current year (2014) was not included since the number is yet unknown, but according to this research 157 CubeSats has been developed as at the end of 2013, 19 were lost to three rocket failures, and about 11 failed in orbit, therefore a total of 127 missions were successful. The above statistics is 95% correct, the 5% gives way to one or two missions which may have been left out. 60 Number of CubeSats Developed Each Year 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YEAR Figure 1: Number of CubeSats Developed Each Year; 2013 holds the highest record, while 2005 has the lowest number. Fig. 25 shows the number of missions according to each application mentioned in this project, out of the 157 CubeSats developed at the end of 2013, 80 was on the original purpose of the CubeSat initiative (Education and Training). This number overlaps with the ones for Tech. Demo and COMs; this is because the mission goal for most of the education CubeSats was technology experiments and COMs. The chart explains more. 90 Number of CubeSats According to Applications 80 70 60 50 40 80 30 60 45 20 33 10 0 6 12 Figure 2: Number of CubeSats according to each Application 5 4 10 Fig. 26 is a graph explaining the Success and Failure rate of CubeSat Launch and Operations. The yellow line is the failure rate; the big spike above 2006 is the highest setback in CubeSat launch history, then there are the 2008 and 2011 all because of rocket failure. The blue line is the success rate; it started off low but has risen in the past decade. The trend is a gradual but continues to increase, and this indicates that this technology has come to stay. This is because interest in the technology has risen, and there is a better understanding of the underlining engineering process. 60 50 Success and Failure Rate of CubeSat Launch and Operations 40 30 Success Failure 20 10 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 TIME (YEARS) 2010 2012 2014 Figure 3: Success and Failure Rate of CubeSat Launch and Operations 6.2.Mission Drivers, Limitations and Possible Solutions The cost and size of a CubeSat and the problem of launch vehicle are the key areas discussed in this section. These were not just factors of discussion, but their likely solutions were also given. 6.2.1. Typical CubeSat Mission Breakdown The example given below is for a University Project. This is a quote from ISIS for a 1 unit CubeSat, figures are in pound sterling. Items Phase 1 Project Definition and Initiation Spacecraft Construction *Labour (Students) *System Engineer (Lecturer) Acquiring Components Cost (£) None None None Satellite Frame ACS Camera System Transmission System -4 tape spring antennas of 55 cm length Antenna System Solar Cells (1-30 W) Miscellaneous Minor Components Phase 1 Total Phase 2 Launch Preparation *Transport to Launch Site 3 unit P-POD = 25000 euros *1U CubeSat =25000/3 = 8333 euros Phase 2 Total Phase 3 Launch Cost *installation of P-POD on launch vehicle (at an hourly rate of £60) x 2 hours = £120 *For two workers Additional Fuel Cost 1kg POD + 1kg CubeSat = 2kg extra for fuel 1kg will add £80 fuel 2 x 80 = £160 Phase 3 Total SUM TOTAL 1909 1660 102 7055 2490 1660 3762 18638 3000 6917 9917 240 160 600 (estimate) £29217 ~ £30000 Table 1: Cost Estimate for a University CubeSat Mission Table 4 as we have seen is for educational purpose, what this means is that the launch cost is just £600 because it is a free ride from NASA, ESA, and Russian Space Agency etc. In a case of a commercial CubeSat, the launch cost is $40000 per 1 kg, i.e. £24000 for a single cube. 6.2.2. CubeSat Size and Launcher Availability The size constraint in CubeSat is the first factor to consider when deciding the goal for any mission, for instance, a mission for tech. demo would consider micro components for testing because of the limitation in volume, power, and data etc. Incorporating micro parts into CubeSat is a good method of managing the size problem as section 5.4 suggested filters, valves, cathodes, and tubes for propulsion experiments. How about rocket availability? -what if a launcher is developed just for CubeSats? -how many CubeSats can it accommodate and how much can be generated? The two staged Ariane 5 rocket take-off weight is 777000kg, and its launch cost is $120 million, but most CubeSat missions are to LEO, so a rocket of less size might be required. So if the size of Ariane 5 is reduced in size and called Ariane-CUBE and let us assume it is owned by Newton Launch Systems (NLS), the cost of designing such rocket will be about $50 million, but how many CubeSats can generate such amount of money. Willing customers could come from commercial, military or government establishment because they are the type of customers who can pay the $40000 launch cost per single cube. At a launch cost of that rate ($40000 per 1kg), 1250 1U CubeSats would be needed to generate $50 million for Ariane-CUBE. This means that NLS will have to gather 15 rich establishments who need to launch 84 1U CubeSats each at one go. In the case of all CubeSats designed to 3U, launch cost would be 3 x 40000 per 3U which equals $120000 this would then require 417 CubeSats to generate $50 million for ArianeCUBE, and NLS has to gather 10 rich companies that need 42 CubeSats each to make this happen. The second option is more achievable considering the recent launch of 28 CubeSats by Planet Labs, and the ongoing QB50 program (International Network of Double and Triple CubeSats). Education missions (student projects) should continue to lobby for free rides from NASA, ESA, JAXA, and Russian Space Agency etc. since they do not have the fund to pay for launch cost. The next section makes few suggestions on how students can raise money to pay Launch Service Providers such as ISS, if free rides are not available. 6.3.Mission Funding University students who are interested in launching a CubeSat can kick off fund raising by convincing their Local Council Chairman of how much experience space students would gain on satellite design and operation if they were funded for a CubeSat mission. When the Council Chairman has their attention, the MP’s become the next stop for raising money for the CubeSat mission; this becomes an opportunity to remind them of the lack of hands on experience on what students are taught in the lecture rooms. The MP’s should be informed on how this is ideal for testing new technologies, which are the bedrock of economic growth and human capital development. NGO’s and owners of private companies such as the Virgin Galactic can also be approached for help, Richard Branson could be reminded that satellite design experience for current space students would benefit him immensely, for an obvious reason which is that the upcoming satellite designers could become his future employees. Students can also collaborate with other local and international universities as seen in the ongoing QB50 CubeSat program. Ideas could be shared along with the money problem, the least wealthy universities contribute fewer funds, while the well to do ones contribute more