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Ageing and Depopulation in Japan: Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century

East Asia in 2013: A Region in Transition, 2014
Peter  Matanle
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Ageing and Depopulation in Japan: Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century

Ageing and Depopulation in Japan: Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century

    Peter  Matanle
Ageing and Depopulation in Japan Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century By Peter Matanle School of East Asian Studies, University of Sheffield p.matanle@sheffield.ac.uk The final definitive version of this article has been published in: H. Dobson (ed.) East Asia in 2013: A Region in Transition (2014) White Rose East Asia Centre and Foreign and Commonwealth Office Briefing Papers, Sheffield: WREAC: 30-35. By the White Rose East Asia Centre. Suggested Citation Matanle, P. (2014) Ageing and Depopulation in Japan Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century. In H. Dobson (ed.) East Asia in 2013: A Region in Transi- tion, White Rose East Asia Centre and Foreign and Commonwealth Office Briefing Papers, Shef- field: WREAC: 30-35. This article is the final version prior to publisher proofing. Readers are advised to refer to the published article for accurate citation and referencing. If you are unable to access the published version, then please contact the author at: p.matanle@sheffield.ac.uk. Ageing and Depopulation in Japan: Understanding the Consequences for East and Southeast Asia in the 21st Century Peter Matanle Introduction In this briefing paper I will outline the Japan is one of the most rapidly ageing and ways in which Japan’s demography has been depopulating countries in the world. Govern- changing and make comparisons with China ment projections indicate that Japan may and South Korea. I will then describe some of shrink 32 per cent from the high of 128 million the impacts in Japan’s non-metropolitan re- in 2008 to approximately 87 million by 2060, gions, focusing on the issue of over-capacity. I due to a sustained fall in rates of human re- will conclude by looking to the future. production. Whereas in 1947 each woman expected to give birth in her lifetime to 4.54 Japan’s Changing Age-Structure children, this had dropped below the popula- Japan is in the midst of a dramatic century- tion replacement rate of 2.1 children per long shift in the age structure of the popula- woman by 1974, and remained at below re- tion, from being a young country in 1960 to an placement to stand at 1.39 children in 2010 old one in 2060 (Figure 1). Demographers (Figure 1). have come to call these circumstances either a ‘demographic dividend’, due to the potential Figure 1. Actual (1960-2010) and Projected for a young population to deliver rapid eco- (2020+) Population of Japan (left hand scale, nomic expansion, or a ‘demographic burden’, millions) and by Age Group (right hand scale, because of the high economic costs of main- %). (Source: Japanese government websites). taining a hyper-aged society. Japan, moreo- ver, is in a particularly difficult position, given 0-14 15-64 that national debt in 2013 stands at approxi- 65+ Actual Pop. mately 240 per cent of GDP, with debt servic- 150 100% ing swallowing around a quarter of the nation- 5.7 7.1 9.1 12.0 17.3 23.1 29.1 31.6 36.1 38.8 39.9 128 80% al budget, and an annual budget deficit of 94 around 6 per cent. 100 87 64.1 68.9 67.3 60% When we compare demographic 69.5 67.9 63.7 change in Japan with that of other countries in 59.2 58.1 40% 50 53.9 51.5 50.9 Asia such as China and South Korea, UN 20% Population Division data, which are more con- 30.2 24.0 23.5 18.2 14.6 13.2 11.7 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.1 servative than the Japanese government’s, 0 0% show Japan growing by 82 per cent in the 75 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 year period up to its population peak in 2010, and project a 26 per cent shrinkage by 2085. The UN forecasts similar paths through for Overall, population reduction is proba- South Korea and China. South Korea is pro- bly good news for Japan, and possibly other jected to grow and shrink 138 per cent and 26 countries too, in that it provides opportunities per cent in the 75 and 70 year period either for reconfiguring living conditions and it may side of its expected peak in 2030, and China help to reduce human pressures on the natu- by 154 per cent and 33 per cent in the 75 year ral environment. Nevertheless, ageing and periods either side of its peak in around 2025. depopulation bring with them consequences In all three countries projections for the for affected regions, and policies may need to dependency ratio between working and non- be developed to deal with these. What is in- working people point to worrying consequenc- teresting about Japan’s situation as a pioneer es for the long-term stability of each nation’s shrinking society is how the outcomes of the- finances, for the continuation of growth- se processes and policies might inform us oriented economic regimes, and for maintain- about the prospects for other East and South- ing community stability and resilience. In Ja- east Asian countries such as China, South pan the dependency ratio reached its most Korea, and Thailand in the years and decades economically advantageous position in 1990, to come, as they too experience similar devel- just as the economy tilted into the long stag- opmental pathways. nation known as the ‘Lost Decade(s)’. There- • inter-prefectural (to regional centres; eg. after the proportion of the population depend- Fukuoka, Sapporo and Sendai), ent on working people has steadily risen and • inter-municipal (to prefectural capitals and is expected to reach about one worker per core cities), dependent in 2055. China will reach its most • and intra-municipal (to the municipal ur- advantageous ratio in around 2015 and South ban zone). Korea in 2025. Within this spatial redistribution of The Changing Spatial Distribution of Ja- population can be discerned some general- pan’s Population izable patterns, with similar patterns having Alongside ageing has occurred a dramatic been experienced in South Korea and China shift in the population’s spatial distribution due thus far. to the familiar processes of agricultural trans- formation, industrialization, and urbanization Figure 3: Projected population change in Ja- that accompany modern economic growth pan by prefecture and prefectural capital (Figures 2 and 3). Whereas 41 per cent of the 2010-2030. (Source: National Inst. Of Pop. population lived in urban areas in 1960, by and Social Security Research). 2010 this had increased to 67 per cent, with an increase in the total population over the same period of 73 per cent. This has placed enormous pressures on urban areas in ac- commodating ever rising demand for housing, infrastructure, and services. Less noticeable has been the stresses that population loss have placed on rural regions. Figure 2: Population change in Japan by pre- fecture and prefectural capital 1990-2010 (Solid areas indicate growth, patterned shrinkage) (Source: National census data). First, rural locales are now widely rec- ognized as being hyper-aged societies lacking the means to sustainably reproduce their own populations such that communities are declin- ing in vitality and, in increasing numbers, even collapsing and disappearing altogether. Se- cond, while urbanization was taking place against the backdrop of an expanding national population, metropolitan centres and prefec- tural capitals in particular expanded very rap- idly, to some extent at the expense of rural shrinkage, such that there is now excessive over-crowding in some urban districts. How- In general, internal migration in Japan ever, and third, with depopulation now taking can be understood as a movement by pre- place at the national level nearly all settle- dominantly younger adults from rural to urban ments are now shrinking. Consequently, de- locations in search of more plentiful, varied, population can no longer be considered an and higher quality education, employment, unfortunate rural expression of successful na- and social opportunities, and producing urban- tional economic development, as it once was, ization at four levels of geographical scale or but also as an urban phenomenon and a con- distance: dition affecting settlements of all sizes and concentrations. Accordingly, and fourth, de- • inter-regional (to metropolitan centres; population is experienced spatially as a retreat Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya), from the peripheries of the archipelago, with the most remote hamlets collapsing first, and progressively larger settlements being drawn and private services are in retreat. For exam- into a recursive spiral of ageing, depopulation ple, over-capacity in educational infrastructure and decline, until almost the entire land area due to fewer school age children means that of the country experiences the impacts in schools are merging or closing down, leading some form or another. to fewer teaching opportunities; and increas- ing numbers of empty school buildings dot the Impacts of Ageing and Depopulation in Ru- landscape, reminding residents of once thriv- ral Japan ing communities (Figure 4). Ageing and depopulation are being felt in all Similarly, rationalization of local au- areas of Japan’s social, economic, political thorities has led to a wave of municipal mer- and cultural life. In this section I will focus on gers. Few job openings are appearing in pub- some of the more significant issues that rural lic administration or essential services as or- communities have faced and which, with ganizations remove duplication and slim work- some reservations, as processes of ageing forces through retiree attrition. Moreover, the and depopulation become more widespread preference among urban Japanese for holi- and severe in the near future, may also occur days overseas means that seasonal tourism in urban settlements in the rest of Japan, as related work is thin on the ground in previous- well as in other East and Southeast Asian ly popular domestic rural destinations, leading countries. to the closure of hotels, facilities and shops In Japan a large number of rural com- (Figure 5). munities are in decline and some are collaps- ing. This is what Japanese social scientists Figure 5: An abandoned rural hotel in Niigata mean when they describe ‘genkai shuuraku’, Prefecture, Northwestern Japan. (Photo: Peter or ‘communities on the edge’. In these there is Matanle) virtually no economic activity between resi- dents, few children are being born, an increas- ing proportion of the built environment is emp- ty, idle and deteriorating, agricultural land is being abandoned, and forests are encroach- ing on human settlements. Such communities have little attraction for reinvestment or in- migrants and, in the course of time, some will disappear entirely. What are some of the con- ditions of living in such communities? Figure 4: An abandoned elementary school in Municipal mergers have encouraged Niigata Prefecture, northwestern Japan. (Pho- local centralization of administration, which in to: Peter Matanle) turn has generated the closure of public facili- ties in outlying areas. This has produced vari- ous consequences. First, services have be- come more distant from users; yet, reductions in subsidies combined with reduced demand means that public transport is also being cut back. Residents feel forced into cars, which disproportionately affects older people living alone, who require more frequent and easier access to services, but who may not be able to drive. Second, office and facility closures Beginning with employment, which is resuch as shops and restaurants – in sur- the foundation for any stable local economy, rounding neighbourhoods, reducing a com- well-paid secure jobs that do not require phys- munity’s economic vitality. Third, younger and ical labour is in short supply in rural Japan. middle-aged people remaining in rural com- Traditional routes into employment for eldest munities are spending increasing resources sons and daughters wishing to remain living in and time helping and caring for elderly rela- the family holding and care for ageing parents, tives and neighbours in compensation for re- such as family commercial enterprises, munic- duced formal service provision. Although such ipal administration and school teaching, are kindness is admirable, it reduces the oppor- fast disappearing as economic functions in tunity that able citizens have for economically rural communities decline, and where public productive activity. and security, for example. Local tax revenues Figure 6: Abandoned and overgrown farm- decline and contribute to further service con- house and farm in Kochi Prefecture, South- solidation. Moreover, evidence shows that, western Japan. (Photo: Peter Matanle) despite the expectation that depopulation would reduce resource consumption, for ex- ample, per capita energy use in depopulating prefectures is increasing more rapidly than in growing prefectures (Figure 7) due in part to processes outlined above. Deteriorating and underused buildings are inefficiently heated in winter, or residents are forced into cars and drive longer distances. Similarly, local ser- vices such as post, community nursing, food and heating oil deliveries, and emergency services travel longer distances per client. Such a phenomenon, if generalized out Nevertheless, overcapacity is a serious across China and the rest of Asia, may have issue in non-metropolitan regions, as commu- important consequences for world energy de- nities empty out. Provincial real estate mar- mand and carbon output forecasts. kets are failing as houses remain empty, and occupancy rates in apartment blocks reach Conclusion: The Future for East Asia alarmingly low levels. Property reinvestment is While the future is always uncertain, China disappearing and the built environment look- and South Korea will probably experience ing shabby and derelict, further depressing the many of the outcomes of ageing and depopu- atmosphere and prices, and causing remain- lation currently being faced by Japan, due to ing residents to leave, if they can. Empty their similar patterns of demographic and eco- houses, or akiya, are becoming uninhabitable nomic change. Later in the century other and unsellable due to colonization by fauna countries in East and Southeast Asia, such as and flora (Figure 6). Ransacking and Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia may follow. defacation by monkeys is a familiar blight. Alt- East Asia will remain an economically hough land prices in central Tokyo are rising dynamic world region. However, a deep again, this belies a collapse in market condi- cleavage is appearing there, between the tions in many rural areas. large, vibrant, energetic and young metropoli- tan centres, such as Tokyo, Shanghai, Seoul, Figure 7: Index of Total Energy Consumption and Bangkok, and an increasingly old, shrink- and Carbon Output by Shrinking and Growing ing, depressed and struggling regional periph- Prefectures in Japan, measured against GDP ery. Metropolitan centres are pulling away Growth, 1990-2008. Sources: Ministry of from the regional hinterland on which their Economy, Trade and Industry, and World continuing dynamism ultimately depends. How Bank. this tension between urban dynamism and Shrinking Prefs. Energy Consumption rural decay will play out is uncertain. Never- Shrinking Prefs. Carbon Output theless, the potential for disruption is present Growing Prefs. Energy Consumption and, I argue, increasing. For example, even Growing Prefs. Carbon Output as urban demand for food expands, rural agri- GDP at Current LCU 130 cultural production decrease, leading to higher prices. 120 Not only is the number and size of marginal regional communities increasing, 110 their exposure to risks is also expanding. Whereas in previous decades in Japan only 100 the most peripheral hamlets were under 90 threat, in the 21st century even provincial core cities are losing their vitality. With more than 80 90 per cent of Japan’s municipalities now 1990 1991 1995 2000 2001 2005 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 shrinking it is certain that the impacts of age- ing and depopulation will spread to large re- gional and metropolitan settlements. For ex- Overcapacity in buildings and infra- ample, health and welfare costs are rising and structure increases per unit running costs, as the central government wishes to pass some buildings still require heating, maintenance costs on to local authorities, with the result sufficiency ratios, potential impacts of that the most vulnerable municipalities will extreme environmental disturbances. bear a disproportionate economic burden. Importantly, the March 11, 2001 tsu- Recommended Reading nami in Northeastern Japan has shown how Bloom, D.E., Canning, D., and Sevilla, J. vulnerable ageing marginal communities are (2003) The Demographic Dividend: A New to extreme environmental disturbances. Cli- Perspective on the Economic Consequences mate change theory predicts extreme weather of Population Change, Santa Monica: Rand events of increasing frequency and intensity, Corporation. and the Northwestern zone of the Pacific Ring Coulmas, F. (2007) Population Decline and of Fire appears to be experiencing an in- Ageing in Japan: The Social Consequences, crease in seismic intensity. As East Asia de- London: Routledge. velops, it is possible that extreme disturb- Coulmas, F., et al., eds. (2008) The Demo- ances will also destabilize industrial facilities graphic Challenge: A Handbook about Japan, such as power stations and chemical plants, Leiden: Brill such as occurred at Fukushima in Japan. Kerr, A. (2002) Dogs and Demons: Tales It is my belief that a careful study of from the Dark Side of Japan, New York: Hill how economic and demographic change in- and Wang. teract in present-day Japan will provide es- Liu, L. (2010) China’s Population Trends and sential knowledge for responding to similar their Implications for Fertility Policy, Asian circumstances in the rest of East and South- Population Studies, 6 (3): 289-305. east Asia. In particular, how Japan responds Lutz, W. Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, to the intersection between the long-run en- S. (2004) The End of World Population dogenous ‘disaster’ of rural decline and the Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges sudden exogenous ‘disaster’ of the 2011 for Human Capital formation and Sustainable Tohoku tsunami and nuclear crisis will be es- Development, London: Earthscan. pecially instructive for other regions in Asia as Matanle, P. (2010) Coming to a City Near they traverse their paths through industrial You! Learning to Live ‘Beyond Growth’ in Ja- and post-industrial development in the coming pan’s Shrinking Regions, Social Science Ja- decades. pan Journal, 13 (2): 187-210. Matanle, P., Rausch, A.S., with the Shrink- Summary ing Regions Research Group (2011) Ja- • Japan is in the midst of a dramatic pan’s Shrinking Regions in the 21st Century: century-long shift in the size, age Responses to Depopulation and Socioeco- structure and spatial distribution of its nomic Decline, Amherst, NY: Cambria Press. population. Matsutani, A. (2006) Shrinking Population • The impacts of ageing and depopula- Economics: Lessons from Japan, Tokyo: In- tion are being felt in all areas of social, ternational House of Japan. economic, cultural and political life. Münz, R. and Rieterer, A. (2009) Overcrowd- • While community decline was confined ed World? Global Population and International to the most peripheral villages, even Migration, London: Haus Publishing. regional cities are now losing some of Rostow, W.W. (1998) The Great Population their vitality. Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Centu- • Due to similar patterns of economic ry, New York and Oxford: Oxford University development and demographic Press. change, what is currently occurring in Traphagan, J.W. and Knight, J. (eds.) De- Japan will likely occur in future in other mographic Change and the Family in Japan’s countries in East and Southeast Asia. Aging Society, Albany, NY: SUNY Press. • Although East and Southeast Asia will remain economically dynamic, a deep Dr. Peter Matanle is Senior Lecturer in Japa- cleavage is appearing between still vi- nese Studies at the White Rose East Asia brant metropolitan centres and a Centre, School of East Asian Studies, Univer- struggling rural hinterland. sity of Sheffield. His research interests are in • Issues to watch: regional socio- the social and cultural geography of Japan economic sustainability, rural-urban bi- and East Asia. He can be contacted by e-mail furcation and disruption, health and at: p.matanle@sheffield.ac.uk, or through his welfare provision, resource consump- personal website: www.matanle.net. tion patterns, agricultural self-