Academia.eduAcademia.edu

Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility

This Paper
A short summary of this paper
37 Full PDFs related to this paper
1 Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility Nassim Nicholas Taleb† ‡ † Universa Investments ‡ Tandon School of Engineering, New York University Forthcoming, Quantitative Finance A technology should be judged in how it solves recognized problems, not by its technical appeal. BTC Volatility 2013-2021 I NTRODUCTION /A BSTRACT 1.2 This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general 1.0 and bitcoin in particular —as there are about 10, 000 0.8 cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hew 0.6 to the original protocol [1] and the one with, by far, the largest market capitalization. 0.4 In its current version, in spite of the hype, bitcoin failed to satisfy the notion of "currency without govern- 0.2 ment" (it proved to not even be a currency at all), can be neither a short nor long term store of value (its expected 0.0 value is no higher than 0), cannot operate as a reliable 2016 2018 2020 inflation hedge, and, worst of all, does not constitute, not even remotely, a safe haven for one’s investments, Fig. 1. BTC return, 3 months annualized volatility. It does not seem to drop over time. a shield against government tyranny, or a tail protection BTC Capitalization Volatility 2013-2021 vehicle for catastrophic episodes. 1 × 1012 Furthermore, bitcoin promoters appear to conflate the success of a payment mechanism (as a decentralized 8 × 1011 mode of exchange), which so far has failed, with the speculative variations in the price of a zero-sum maxi- 6 × 1011 mally fragile asset with massive negative externalities. Going through monetary history, we show how a true numeraire must be one of minimum variance with respect 4 × 1011 to an arbitrary basket of goods and services, how gold and silver lost their inflation hedge status during the Hunt 2 × 1011 brothers squeeze in the late 1970s and what would be required from a true inflation hedged store of value. 0 2016 2018 2020 Fig. 2. Too volatile to fail? We show the volatility of the capitalization of T HE B LOCKCHAIN BTC. At higher levels of capitalization, return volatility compounds. In 2021 a swing of half a trillion dollars in the capitalization of bitcoin took place. First, let us consider what cryptocurrencies do by examining the notion of blockchain and its intellectual and mathematical appeal. The concept behind such a chain is quite intuitive to pseudorandom variables via some forms of chained nonlinear early practitioners of quantitative finance. Consider that be- transformations, in the spirit of Von Neumann’s original idea fore efficient software for Monte Carlo simulations became [2]. Indexing sequences by t = 1, 2, . . . n, with a seed at widely available, some of us were using methods to generate t, a variable xt on the real line generates via nonlinear transformations r : R → R, an output variable r(xt ). NNT1@nyu.edu This output variable can serve as a pseudorandom seed to The author thanks Gur Huberman, Mark Spitznagel, Brandon Yarkin, Arthur generate another pseudorandom variable, r(xt+1 ). For all Breitman, Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy, Jim Gatheral, Joe Norman, Zhuo Xi, David Boxenhorn, Antonis Polemitis, Joe Shipman, and others for useful t, knowledge of r(Xt ) allows knowledge of all subsequent discussions. variables r(xτ )τ >t and replication of the entire sequence, thus 2 probabilistically mimicking the arrow of time. It is also crucial to concentration2 . Furthermore, by the very nature of the that the same seed produces exactly the same pseudorandom blockchain, transactions are irreversible, no matter the reason. variable, allowing verification of sequence, but disallowing Finally, note that bitcoins are zero-sum by virtue of the easy reverse engineering. numerus clausus. What the blockchain added, thanks to the hash function, As we will see, mathematical and combinatorial qualities is the condition that r(.) must be functionally and proba- do not necessarily translate into financial benefits at either bilistically bijective: no two seeds should produce the same individual or systemic levels. output (or should produce a vanishingly low probability of that happening), what, in computer science terminology, is called Comment 1: Why BTC is worth exactly 0 collision. Gold and other precious metals are largely maintenance This hard-wired attribute and absence of supervision of the free, do not degrade over an historical horizon, and blockchain allow the storage of activities on a public ledger to do not require maintenance to refresh their physical facilitate peer-to-peer commerce, transactions, and settlements. properties over time. The blockchain concept also allows for serial record keeping. Cryptocurrencies require a sustained amount of inter- This is supposed to help create what the original white paper est in them. [1] described as: A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly V ULNERABILITY OF REVENUE - FREE BUBBLES from one party to another without going through a A central result (even principle) in the rational expectations financial institution. and securities pricing literature is that, thanks to the law of iterated expectations, if we expect now that we will expect the From that paper, bitcoin makes use of three existing tech- price to vary at some point in the future, then by backward nologies: 1) the hash function, 2) the Merkle tree (to chain induction such a variation must be incorporated in the price blocks of transactions tagged by the hash function), and 3) the now. When there are no dividends, as with growth companies, concept of proof of work (used to deter spam by forcing agents there is still an expectation of future earnings, and a future to use computer time in order to qualify for a transaction) expected reward to stockholders — directly via dividends, or — technologies that, ironically, all came out of the academic indirectly via reverse dilutions and buybacks. It remains that literature[3]1 . The idea provides a game theoretic approach to a stock is a claim on accumulated assets and their residual mitigate the effects of the absence of custodian and lack of value. trust between participants in the maintenance of a permanent Earnings-free assets with no residual value are problematic. shared public ledger — attenuating or circumventing the coor- The implication is that, owing to the absence of any explicit dination quandary known as the "Byzantine general problem". yield benefitting the holder of bitcoin, if we expect that at The bitcoin transactional currency (BTC) system establishes any point in the future the value will be zero when miners are an adversarial collaboration between the so-called "miners" extinct, the technology becomes obsolete, or future generations who validate transactions by getting them on a public ledger; get into other such "assets" and bitcoin loses its appeal for as a reward they get coins plus a fee from the underlying them, then the value must be zero now3 . transactions, transfers of coins between parties. The proof The typical comparison of bitcoin to gold is lacking in of work method has an adjustable degree of difficulty based elementary financial rigor4 . We will see below how precious on the speed of blocks, which aims, in theory, to keep the metals lost their quality as a medium of exchange; gold and incentive sufficiently high for miners to keep operating the 2 From public data, we were able to verify that the distribution of holdings system. Such adjustments lead to an exponential increase in computer power requirements, making at the time of writing of bitcoin follows a powerlaw with tail index ≈ 54 , no different from the distribution of wealth in the U.S. onerous energy demands on the system — energy that could 3 Using a traditional rational bubble model (see [4] and the review by find alternatives in other computational and scientific uses. [5]), we get the following conditions. Let rd be a discount rate and π be a probability of absorption over a period. To escape the barrier, bitcoin must Miners derive their compensation from both seignorage grow at er+π forever, but no more, without remission, and with total certainty. (the market value of a bitcoin minus its mining costs) and Should it grow then stabilize, it still would be prone to extinction. We note transaction fees upon validation — with the plan to switch that traditionally, models rule out any continuous growth at an exponential rate faster than r + π because the security or asset would then represent the entire to transaction fees as the sole revenues upon the eventual economy. Bitcoin distinguishes itself from other assets because of its fragility depletion of the coins, which are limited to a fixed number. as a mere book entry on a virtual ledger that requires constant refreshing ad A central attribute is that bitcoin depends on the existence infinitum. 4 It is also a reasoning error to claim that an innovation, bitcoin, can become of such miners for perpetuity. the "new gold" ab ovo, when gold wasn’t decided to be so by fiat thanks Note that the entire ideological basis behind bitcoin is to a white paper; it organically became a reserve asset ex post, through complete distrust of other operators — there are no par- centuries of competitive selection against other modes of storage, payment, and collectibles. Gold elicited an aesthetic fascination and had been used as tial custodians; the system is fully distributed, though prone jewelry and store of value for more than two millennia before it became, literally, a currency or before there was such a thing as a currency. The Phoenicians used it as store of value because there was demand for it, and it 1 As this discussion is focused on proof of work, we exclude from it was not until the 6th C. BCE that coins from Sardis became a widespread Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. means of exchange [6]. 3 other dividend-free precious items (such as other metals or a numeraire from which other goods could be priced. But stones) have held some financial status for more than 6, 000 currently it is not, as we will see next. years, and their physical status for several orders of magnitude longer (i.e., they did not degrade or mutate into some other S UCCESS IN WRONG PLACES alloy or mineral). So one can expect one’s gold or silver More generally, the fundamental flaw and contradiction at possessions to be around physically for at least the next the base of most cryptocurrencies is, as we saw, that the millennium, as well as having some residual economic value originators, miners, and maintainers of the system currently by iteration, for the same reason. Metals have ample industrial make their money from the inflation of their currencies rather uses with demand elasticity (and substitution for other raw than just from the volume of underlying transactions in them. materials). Currently, about half of gold production goes to Hence the total failure of bitcoin to become a currency has jewelry (for which there are often no storage costs), one tenth been masked by the inflation of the currency value, generating to industry, and a quarter to central bank reserves. (paper) profits for a large enough number of people to enter Path dependence is a problem. We cannot expect a book the discourse well ahead of its utility. entry on a ledger that requires active maintenance by inter- ested and incentivized people to keep its physical presence, a condition for monetary value, for any period of time — Comment 2: Success for a digital currency and of course we are not sure of the interests, mindsets, and There is a mistaken conflation between success for a preferences of future generations. Once bitcoin drops below "digital currency", which requires some stability and a certain threshold, it may hit an absorbing barrier and stays usability, and speculative price appreciation. at 0 — gold on the other hand is not path dependent in its physical properties5 . As discussed in [7], technologies tend to Transactions in bitcoin are considerably more expensive be supplanted by other technologies with a vulnerability in than wire services or other modes of transfers, or ones in other proportion to their past survival duration (>99% of the new is cryptocurrencies7 . They are order of magnitudes slower than replaced by something newer), whereas items such as gold standard commercial systems used by credit card companies and silver have proved resistant to extinction. Furthermore —anecdotally, while you can instantly buy a cup of coffee bitcoin is supposed to be hacker-proof and is based on total with your cell phone, you would need to wait ten minutes if infallibility in the future, not just at present. It is crucial that you used bitcoin8 . They cannot compete with African mobile bitcoin is based on perfect immortality; unlike conventional money. 9 . Nor can the system outlined above —as per its very assets, the slightest mortality rate puts its value at 06 . structure —accommodate a large volume of transactions — which is something central for such an ambitious payment Principle 1: Cumulative ruin system. If any non-dividend yielding asset has the tiniest proba- To date, twelve years into its life, in spite of all the fanfare, bility of hitting an absorbing barrier (causing its value but with the possible exception of the price tag of Salvadoran to become 0), then its present value must be 0. permanent residence (3 bitcoins), there are currently no prices fixed in bitcoin floating in fiat currencies in the economy. We exclude collectibles from that category, as they have P RINCIPLES FOR A CURRENCY an aesthetic utility as if one were, in a way, renting them for an expense that maps to a dividend — and thus are no First, let’s discuss the demonetization of gold. In 1971, the different from perishable consumer goods. The same applies U.S. government terminated the Bretton Woods Agreement, to the jewelry side of gold: my gold necklace may be worth 0 ending the convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold. Gold in thirty years, but then I would have been wearing it for six stocks were growing too slowly, and, as mentioned earlier, decades. much of it went to jewelry and industry — the most robust theory is that there was not enough gold to keep up with The difference between the current bitcoin bubble and economic growth10 . Furthermore, there had been long debates past recent ones, such as the dot-com episode spanning the over the hampering of monetary policy by sticking to metals, period over 1995-2000, is that shell companies were at least as witnessed by the bullionist controversy11 . It appears that promising some type of future revenue stream. Bitcoin would be allowed to escape a valuation methodology had it proven 7 Transactions in bitcoin are orders of magnitude more expensive than those to be a medium of exchange or satisfied the condition for done using African mobile phones. 8 "As it grew in popularity, Bitcoin became cumbersome, slow, and expen- sive to use. It takes about 10 minutes to validate most transactions using the 5 The absorbing barrier does not have to be 0 for the price to spiral to 0 cryptocurrency and the transaction fee has been at a median of about $20 this upon hitting the barrier. This is similar to saying "if the heart rate drops below year." By Eswar Prasad, New York Times, Jun 15, 2021. 9 There appear to be other protocols issued from the original white paper ten beats per minutes, it will be 0 (death)" — nor does it necessarily have to be caused by a drop in price. that claim to be more transaction focused; as with Ethereum, we exclude them 6 To counter the effect of the absorbing barrier, the asset must grow at an from this analysis. 10 Ironically the U.S. deficit caused the dollar to be more widely available exponential rate forever, without remission, and with total certainty. Belief in such an immortality for BTC — and its total infallibility — is in line and used, in stable supply, by what is called the Triffin paradox. with the common observation that its enthusiastic investors have the attributes 11 Even Ricardo got drawn in, see Ricardo’s 1811-1816 arguments [8],[9], of a religious cult. and commentary by Jevons [10]. 4 Comment 3: Payment system XAU 1975-1985 There is a conflation between "accepting bitcoin for payments" and pricing goods in bitcoin. To "price" in 800 bitcoin, bitcoin the price must be fixed, with a conversion into fiat floating, rather than the reverse. 600 Let us go deeper into how a currency can come about. 400 No transaction between two persons is analytically pairwise in an open economy. The root of the confusion lies in the 200 prevalent naïve-libertarian illusion that a transaction between two consenting adults, when devoid of coercion, is effectively 0 just a transaction between two consenting adults and can 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 be isolated and discussed as such12 . But one must consider the ensemble of transactions and the interactions between XAG 1975-1985 agents: people happen to engage in contractual agreements with others; for them a specific transaction is just one piece. 50 To be able to regularly buy goods denominated in bitcoin (whose prices fixed in bitcoin but floating in U.S.$ or some 40 other fiat currency), one must have an income that is fixed in bitcoin. Such an income must come from somewhere, say, an 30 employer. For an employer to pay a salary fixed in bitcoin, she or he must be getting revenues fixed in bitcoin. Furthermore, 20 for the vendor to offer a can of beer in fixed bitcoins, she or he must be paying for the raw material, and have the overhead 10 fixed in bitcoin. The same applies to the mismatch of assets 0 and obligations on a balance sheet. All this requires a parity 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 in bitcoin-USD of low enough volatility to be tolerable and for variations to remain inconsequential. There are also arbitrage bounds present in any sufficiently Fig. 3. The rise and fall of metals during the Hunt squeeze of silver and, indirectly, gold. efficient economy with relatively free markets. Furthermore, if a vendor prices goods in bitcoin, and the value fluctuates from the initial fixing, the price will be directly or indirectly arbitraged: when the conversion rate to fiat is favorable, customers will buy from the bitcoiner; when it is unfavorable they will either buy elsewhere (indirect developed economies have trouble hooking their currencies to arbitrage), or if possible, return previously purchased goods a commodity. (direct arbitrage). For the price to not be arbitrageable requires the good to be unique and unavailable elsewhere at a price In the early 1970s, the Hunt brothers started to hoard silver fixed in another currency –in this case it becomes, simply, a (when they started, U.S. citizens were banned from directly proxy for bitcoin. The only items that currently appear to be owning gold), and accelerated their hoarding in the late 1970s, somewhat priced in bitcoin are other cryptocurrencies, even turning it into a squeeze. It lead to a speculative explosion in then not always. the price of silver, as shown in Fig 3, leading by contagion to Bimetalism did not last long [11], nor could commodities between a fivefold and tenfold increase in the price of precious last as currencies in developed economies[12]. metals. Then, upon the deflation of the bubble, metals gave back more than half of their gains and languished for more More generally, the reasons multiple currencies exist (in the than two decades. At the time of writing, 41 years later, neither absence of pegs) is because there is not enough globalization gold nor silver have, inflation adjusted, reached their previous and markets are not entirely free between currency zones. And peak. The same effect took place in 2008-2009 in the wake of some goods and services, "such as haircuts and auto repair the banking crisis: gold and silver jumped upwards between cannot be traded internationally" [13] ; they are not, to use 80 and 120 % then subsequently lost most of their gains. the language of quantitative finance, arbitrageable. In 2021, the governments (central and local) share of Gold and silver proved then that they could neither be a GDP in Western economies is around 30-60%, one order reliable numeraire, nor an inflation hedge. The world had of magnitude higher than it was in the 1900s. Government become too sophisticated for precious metals. If we consider employees and contractors get paid in fiat currency; taxes are the most effective numeraire, it must be the one in which the bulk of salaries are paid, as we will show next. 12 www.libertarianism.org 5 collected similarly 13 . as a store of value. Even categories have their weights naturally Finally, while within a modern currency zone a bimetallic revised over time: the share of food and clothing declined style dual currency cannot easily exist, the same limitations ex- by almost threefold as a proportion of Western consumers ist between currency zones; parity between currencies tend to expenditure since the great recession. be subjected to volatility bounds. An observation we currency Thus we can look at an inflation hedge as the analog of a option traders made while doing cross-currency volatility minimum variance numeraire. arbitrages is that the volatility of a currency pair is inversely Let us assume that there exists an efficient inflation hedge proportional to the trade between the two currency zones — for period [t0 , T ] for an index methodology, the one in countries heavy into trade such as Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, which the index, constantly revised, is the most stable the UAE, and Singapore (at some point) have maintained when it is as a numeraire (adjusting for interest and explicit pegs to the U.S. dollar or some basket. There could dividend payments). be an interactive relationship between trade and volatility: one can argue that the stability of a currency-pair (adjusted for the yield curve) encourages trade and trade in turn brings stability Can one find her or his own hedge? to the pair14,15 . In the parable of the Christ in the temple, Jesus kicked the Now bitcoin, as seen in Fig.1 has maintained extremely money changers out of the temple of Jerusalem... Now one high volatility throughout its life (between 60% and 100% wonders why were there were money changers in a place of annualized) and, what is worse, at higher prices, which makes worship? The answer is that the temple took for currency only it’s capitalization considerably more volatile, rising in price as the shekel of Tyre, known for its 90% silver content and its shown in Fig. 2 — is it too volatile to fail? ancestral quality control [18]17 . Simply, there is a free market for fiat currencies, with the T HE DIFFICULTY WITH INFLATION HEDGES most reliable at the time used by third parties. Before the Euro, there were plenty of currencies in Europe. But long This does not mean that a cryptocurrency cannot displace term contracts, investments, and commitments were evaluated fiat –it is indeed desirable to have at least one real currency in deutschmarks or Swiss francs, sometimes the U.S. dollar; without a government. But the new currency just needs to be drachmas, liras, and pesetas were there mostly for petty more appealing as a store of value by tracking a weighted expenditures. So what we had was competition between fiat basket of goods and services with minimum error. currencies just as with the shekel-of-Tyre! Displacing fiat is not easy, and has been done locally — This competition provides for a vastly more convenient though no single item has proved to be permanent and the monetary store of value. For practitioners of quant finance, difficulty is best represented in the following example. During the most effective inflation hedge can be a combination of the 1970s, the Italian national telephone tokens, the gettoni, bets which includes the short bond. were considered acceptable tender, almost always accepted as payment. The price of the espresso when expressed in lira varied over time, but it remained sticky to the gettone. For S OME ADDITIONAL FALLACIES a while the gettone proved the closest money to track the 1) Fallacy of libertarianism: The belief that bitcoin is Fisher Index across 12 communes[15]16 . And while the gettoni an offshoot of libertarian and Austrian economics has no worked for daily purchases such as espresso, it is doubtful that solid backing — it has the same lack of rigor as the one they could have been used as payment for an Alfa Romeo [17]. behind the belief that cryptos represent a "hedge for inflation". Considering that communications get cheaper over time, Spitznagel [19] had already, in 2017, debunked the notion that the notion of a telephone call is today, in the Zoom days, bitcoin can be a safe haven (as discussed next) or that the obsolete. So the gettone story illustrates the fact that, owing to principles of Austrian economics can be invoked in support technological changes, in the long term, no single item, such a of cryptocurrencies. telephone call, will permanently track inflation indices and act 13 The use of the designation "fiat" may be a misleading stretch of language: Comment 4: Law vs. Regulations vs. Rules money is not created by edict but largely via credit, by governments or the private sectors — and both lenders and borrowers need the least volatile Libertarianism is about the rule of law in place of the currency. rule of regulation. It is not about the rule of rules. 14 Currency pairs often show fake volatility as the spot price can be fluctuating, but forward contracts do less so, owing to interest rate adjustments in the weak currency: interest rates rise to compensate holders for the Libertarianism is fundamentally about the rule of law in devaluation. place of the rule of regulation. It is not about the rule 15 We note here that quantitative finance operates along the lines of of rules — mechanistic, automated rules with irreversible neoclassical economic theory in that both share a central principle: absence of arbitrage, which maps to the law of one price — the former, a concept outcomes. The real world is fraught with ambiguities and initially aimed at goods and services, may be broadened to include asset valuation [14]. When we apply the law of one price to currencies, we realize 17 This appears to be a Judean custom; in the Mishnah (Bekhorot 8): "The using basic arbitrage arguments that the recent globalization does not allow five sela coins of the redemption of the firstborn son, with regard to which it for different currencies to coexist in the same marke: one must win. is written: "Five shekels of silver, after the shekel of the Sanctuary" (Numbers 16 Likewise, the M-Pesa mobile currency used as tender in Africa is 18:16), are calculated using a Tyrian maneh. The silver content of the Tyrian associated with transferable airtime minutes [16]. People can do microfinance coinage is significantly higher than that of provincial coinage, which is worth via cell phones. one-eighth its value." 6 even Napoleonic law (far less mechanistic than crypto rules) would be cumulatively earning trillions, with many billionaire cannot keep up — to wit, as a risk management directive, most "Hodlers" — in comparison the "evil civil servants" behind commercial contracts traditionally prefer forums of dispute fiat money make, at best, lower middle class wages. This resolution to be under the more flexible Anglo Saxon common situation represents a wealth transfer to the cartel of early law (London, NY, Hong Kong) that rules on balance, intent, bitcoin accumulators. and symmetry in contracts. This applies of course to quanti- tative finance products such as complex derivatives contracts C ONCLUSION for which one needs to minimize the legal risk. We have presented the attributes of the blockchain in general Nor is libertarianism about total distrust. and bitcoin in particular. Few assets in financial history have 2) Fallacy of safe haven, I (protection for financial tail been more fragile than bitcoin. risk): The experience of March 2020, during the market panic The customary standard argument is that "bitcoin has its upon the onset of the pandemic, when bitcoin dropped farther flaws but we are getting a great technology; we will do than the stock market —and subsequently recovered with it wonders with the blockchain". No, there is no evidence that upon the massive injection of liquidity is sufficient evidence we are getting a great technology — unless "great technology" that it cannot remotely be used as a tail hedge against systemic doesn’t mean "useful". And at the time of writing —in spite risk. Furthermore, bitcoin appears to respond to liquidity, of all the fanfare — we have done still close to nothing with exactly like other bubble items. the blockchain. It is also uncertain what could happen should the internet So we close with a Damascus joke. One vendor was selling experience a general, or an even a regional, outage — partic- the exact same variety of cucumbers at two different prices. ularly if it takes place during a financial collapse. "Why is this one twice the price?", the merchant was asked. 3) Fallacy of safe haven, II (protection from tyrannical "They came on higher quality mules" was the answer. regimes): To many paranoid antigovernment individuals and We only judge a technology by how it solves problems, not of others distrustful of institutions, bitcoin has been marketed by what technological attributes it has. as a safe haven — also with an open invitation to fall for the fallacy that a volatile electronic token in a public setting is a R EFERENCES place for your hidden treasure. [1] S. Nakamoto, “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system,” Tech. By its very nature, bitcoin is open for all to see. The belief Rep., 2008. in one’s ability to hide one’s assets from the government with a [2] J. Von Neumann, “Various techniques used in connection with random public blockchain easily triangularizable at endpoints, and not digits,” Appl. Math Ser, vol. 12, no. 36-38, p. 3, 1951. [3] A. Narayanan and J. Clark, “Bitcoin’s academic pedigree,” Communi- just read by the FBI but also by people in their living rooms, cations of the ACM, vol. 60, no. 12, pp. 36–45, 2017. requires a certain lack of financial seasoning and statistical [4] O. J. Blanchard and M. W. Watson, “Bubbles, rational expectations and understanding — perhaps even a lack of minimal common financial markets,” NBER working paper, no. w0945, 1982. [5] M. K. Brunnermeier, “Bubbles,” in Banking Crises. Springer, 2016, sense. For instance a Wolfram Research specialist was able pp. 28–36. to statistically detect and triangularize "anonymous" ransom [6] D. Graeber, Debt: The first 5000 years. Penguin UK, 2012. payments made by Colonial Pipeline on May 8 in 2021 [20] [7] N. N. Taleb, Antifragile: things that gain from disorder. Random House and Penguin, 2012. — and it did not take long for the FBI to restore the funds. [8] D. Ricardo, Reply to Mr. Bosanquet’s practical observations on the We can safely assume that government structures and com- report of the Bullion Committee. J. Murray, 1811, vol. 10. putational power will remain stronger than those of distributed [9] ——, Proposals for an economical and secure currency, 1816. [10] W. S. Jevons, A Serious Fall in the Value of Gold Ascertained: And Its operators who, while distrusting one another, can fall prey to Social Effects Set Forth. E. Stanford, 1863. simple hoaxes. [11] F. R. Velde and W. E. Weber, “A model of bimetallism,” Journal of In the cyber world, connections are with people one has Political Economy, vol. 108, no. 6, pp. 1210–1234, 2000. [12] T. J. Sargent and M. Wallace, “A model of commodity money,” Journal never met in real life; infiltration by government agents has of Monetary Economics, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 163–187, 1983. proven to be extremely easy18 . By comparison, the mafia [13] P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, and M. Melitz, “International economics: required a Sicilian lineage for "friends of ours" for secu- Theory and policy,” 2017. [14] S. A. Ross, Neoclassical finance. Princeton University Press, 2009, rity clearance. One never knows the degree of governmental vol. 4. surveillance and its real capabilities. [15] L. Campiglio, “Un’analisi comparata del sistema dei prezzi nei venti The slogan "Escape government tyranny hence bitcoin" is comuni capoluogo di regione,” Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, vol. 94, no. 3, pp. 329–377, 1986. similar to advertisements in the 1960s extolling the health [16] M. Nair and R. Emozozo, “Electronic currency in africa: M-pesa as benefits of cigarettes. private inside money,” Economic Affairs, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 197–206, 4) Fallacy of the Agency problem: One might have the 2018. [17] K. Colucci and C. Moiso, “Il fenomeno delle monete virtuali: oppor- impression that, by being distributed, Bitcoin would be demo- tunità per telecom italia,” Notiziaro Tecnico /Telecom Italia, vol. 1, pp. cratic and reduce the agency problem perceived to be present 76–89, 2014. among civil servants and bankers. Unfortunately, there appears [18] J. Murphy-O’Connor, “Jesus and the money changers (mark 11: 15-17; john 2: 13-17),” Revue Biblique (1946-), pp. 42–55, 2000. to be a worse agency problem: a concentration of insiders [19] M. W. Spitznagel, “Why cryptocurrencies will never be safe havens,” hoarding what they think will be the world currency, so Von Mises Institute, 2017. others would have to go to them later on for supply. They [20] D. Porechna, “Darkside update: The fbi hacks the hackers?” Wolfram Research, June 2021. 18 This is one of the weaknesses of total decentralization.