Prepared by Foresight Lab In collaboration with Pakistan’s academia, think tanks, experts and professionals Along with technical assistance provided by The Millennium Project This effort is dedicated to the people of Pakistan To having a cause, to initiating a conversation, to furthering an interaction, to giving meaning - this has been Foresight Lab’s journey; and yet this is only the beginning. We are indebted to our families, friends, and to all those extraordinary beings who, in the course of over one year believed, felt and thought that this is a journey worth being a part of. While we bear this responsibility, we pray that this support continues on; encouraging us to move closer to ‘Improving the well-being of the people of Pakistan’. Putting people at the heart of all decisions. Puruesh Chaudhary & Dr. Shahid Mahmud TABLE OF CONTENTS THE HISTORY OF PAKISTAN FUTURES 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX 16 State Of Future Index Pakistan State Of Future Index (PK-SOFI) Variables of Pakistan State Of Future Index Methodology RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY IN PAKISTAN 36 STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES 40 Social Technological Economic Environmental Political REALTIME DELPHI (RTD) STUDY 49 RESULTS OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX 51 HOW CAN PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX HELP? 51 EVOLUTIONARY MENTOLOGY 52 THE FUTURE OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX 55 ANNEX 56 Curve Fit of Variables Non-dimensional Values of Variables ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB 84 About Objective Purpose Collaborative Network THE HISTORY OF PAKISTAN FUTURES Dr. Ilhan Niaz Quaid-i-Azam University  THE HISTORY OF PAKISTAN FUTURES Historically, events hold meaning because they Examining how these three sets of factors might affect represent structures and trends coming together Pakistan at present and into the near future: and generating specific instances of decision-making by individual actors, which is often what narrative • Pakistan’s geographic location and environmental history excels at relating. One should not overstate susceptibility to the effects of climate change and the importance of such events because the ability water scarcity are serious causes for concern. The or inability of a society to respond depends upon territories that presently comprise the country had structural strengths and weakness and other trends. perhaps 30 million inhabitants in 1947, and today The deep structures that operate on historical actors they have more than 200 million. Much of this are working against Pakistan and, in terms of geography, expansion has been linear, leading to reduction environment, mentality, and demography, there is in the sizes of agricultural holdings and horizontal little ground for optimism. This said, in anticipating expansion of cities, and extractive, with reliance on the next 10 years, understanding the past as three unsustainable practices, like tapping underground interconnected layers of historical causation can be water sources. Pakistan has a forecasted population helpful: of 243 million by 2027, putting even more stress on water reserves. Pakistan’s geographic vulnerability • Historians often begin their analysis of a region to the spillover of conflict in Afghanistan, as well or country by examining geography (including as its enmity with India, are also a major cause location), natural environment and ecological of concern. Relying on China Pakistan Economic resilience, demography (including distribution), and Corridor to deliver a trump card is a risky gamble mentality. These factors typically exist beyond the though one that Pakistan’s elites have decided to means of a society to control or manipulate within take. a single human lifespan, and attempts to push a state or empire beyond these hard limits can often • In terms of epistemology and worldview, Pakistani trigger collapse or decline. As these factors assert mentality has, since independence from British rule, themselves regardless of our perceptions, they can reverted to a pre-Enlightenment framework. There be understood as objective factors, and they are is very little acceptance of the inherent validity of also sometimes thought of as ultimate causes. scientific knowledge, while the notion that ethics are a function of psycho-social conditions rather • While geography, environment, demography and than religious or ideological beliefs is one that mentality explain a great deal about how societies has very little traction in Pakistan. While many develop, the interaction between people and Pakistanis wish to emulate the lifestyles of the their world produces inter-subjective realities, industrialized world, they do not seek to internalize which include values, ideology, and economic, the rationalism, humanism, and positivism, which scientific, educational, social, military, and political form the core of the scientific revolution that tendencies. These tendencies can play out over made modern civilization possible. This is also decades, generations, or even centuries, and often accompanied by a traditional patriarchal approach reflect problems and opportunities that arise from towards women, leaving half the population in the operation of objective factors. a condition of exceptionally great disadvantage by virtue of gender. The general apathy towards • The layer of causes most familiar to the lay reader learning and knowledge is reflected in part in is that of events. These can be military, political, Pakistan’s poor overall performance in education, religious, cultural, or economic, and capture women’s empowerment, and investment in attention at a particular moment. The responses scientific innovation. There is little indication that generated by these events will depend upon the any of this will improve drastically over the next 10 range of options enabled by the first two set of years. factors, and will lead to the application of the power of a society to attempt to resolve matters in its • Pakistan’s youthful population will need jobs favor. This effort, however, may produce conflicts and skillsets. The trouble is that the low levels of within that society and/or bring it into conflict with education and productivity would require a large other societies with competing agendas. number of unskilled or semiskilled jobs in low-end manufacturing and services. The public sector,  ANTICIPATING 2027 which presently has 3.3 million civilian employees From this shift, several political outcomes might and 800,000 military employees, can absorb some materialize by 2027. of the increase, but with defense, debt servicing, and subsidies, consuming practically all revenues, The first is that Pakistan’s democratic process continues the scope for such interventions is limited barring and adjusts to the rise of the middleclass, shifting the a dramatic improvement in tax collection. The priorities of governments towards what this ascendant employment elasticity of Pakistan’s economic constituency deems fit. The second is that Pakistan’s growth will be critical for increased FDI flows democratic leaders attempt to stymie the political effects (from CPEC or other sources) but may not actually of this trend leading to the already fragile loyalty of the translate into more sustainable jobs for Pakistanis. middleclass towards democratic processes snapping. Pakistan is therefore likely to experience economic The third is that while making political accommodations, growth in the range of 4-7% over the next decade, the governance system continues to slide relative to the but that growth will not translate into development demands being placed on it, which might generate a critical of the productive capacity and competitiveness of mass in favor of violent right-wing populist upheaval. the economy and society. It is also not clear what impact automation in the wealthier economies of the Middle East, which furnishes Pakistan with remittances, will have over the next ten years. Coming to the second tier of factors, the record is Dr. Ilhan Niaz is the author of Old World Empires: somewhat less stark. A core ingredient of Pakistan’s Cultures of Power and Governance in Eurasia and The resilience as well as its dysfunction has been a Culture of Power and Governance of Pakistan, 1947-2008. powerful military capable of acting as a political and He is an Assistant Professor of History at the Quaid-i- administrative reserve, on occasion pushing other Azam University, Islamabad. actors to take steps it regards as necessary for the preservation and prosperity of the country. The precipitous decline in the level of terrorist violence over the past three years is a case in point, while a number of vital policy choices, such as heavy investment in higher education, liberalization of the media, and the financial globalization of Pakistan’s economy, were taken by the last military regime. Generally, these policies have accelerated the rise and growth of a significant middleclass in Pakistan with aspirations comparable to the middleclass elsewhere in the world. These aspirations include a desire for effective governance, a strong distaste for the compromise and “corruption” inherent in democratic politics, a demand for better quality of technical education, and a desire to imitate the lifestyles and consumption patterns of wealthier countries. As this class grows and becomes more politically assertive, Pakistan may well see a shift in its politics from traditional patronage to early modern forms of populism, which can easily swing towards fascism given the conservative leanings of much of society. The urbanization of Pakistan is also likely to provide greater strength to the middleclass, while a redrawing of the electoral map in view of the 2017-18 census is almost inevitable in time for elections in the 2020s. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The world is undergoing rapid transformations in every field of human endeavor. Spectacular advances in genomics, artificial intelligence, regenerative medicine, new materials, energy and other fields are transforming our lives in ways that are often disruptive and serendipitous. Nanotechnology is impacting engineering, industry, medicine and agriculture. Truth has become stranger than fiction. In this scenario, it has become vitally important for us to introduce Future Studies in our schools, colleges and universities as well as have a Future Index that assesses our preparedness for these disruptive changes and provides insights regarding future strategies. In Pakistan, a Foresight Lab is important development. Prof. Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, UNESCO Science Laureate There is a general consensus that Foresight Lab is platform that aspires to advancement of technology will inherently facilitate policymakers, academia, business challenge the conduct of governance in future, community and information governing bodies however, there is lack of understanding as to anticipate change and its implications in to how the process of policy formation and navigating the turbulent future that arises due its implementation will achieve the current to unrelenting and unforeseen events, identify endeavor with the advent of the technological trends and alternate pathways towards a paradigm shift. The lack of acknowledgement desirable future. The Lab will systematically for technology as a core element in drafting explore, create, and test both possible, the policy framework remains a paradox in preferred, plausible and desirable futures in Pakistan. order to improve decisions and processes. The idea that policymaking and its Just as the person on top of the mast on old subsequently developed solutions and models, sailing ships used to point out the rocks and should be data-driven foresight research is safe channels to the captain below for the becoming ever more ingrained in the mind smooth running of the ship through uncharted of policymakers around the world. The main waters, futurists with foresight systems can motivation behind this is to help people make point out problems and opportunities to well-informed choices and decisions about leaders and the public around the world. State policies, programs and future trends by using of Future Index is one of those methods. It existing data. helps enhance long-term strategic thinking by asking if the future is better in ten years, what Big data analytics and artificial intelligence is that means specifically and what variables driving the world towards a Fourth Industrial will show that. And then integrate ten-year Revolution. Pakistan needs to foresee forecasts of each variable into one measure the challenges and opportunities that will – a ten-year index – a Pakistan State of the arise. The first step in navigating through Future Index (PK-SOFI). uncertainties or unintended consequences is to develop tools and skills required for this Pakistan State of the Future Index (PK-SOFI) wave. is a first step towards developing a foresight  ANTICIPATING 2027 for evidenced based policymaking by analyzing medium term policy responses in a way that the historical data of selected variables for the is consistent with addressing major long-term previous twenty years, projection of variables challenges. The results and recommendations for next ten years augmented with judgments of Foresight Lab research will be published and of the best and worst plausible values for each disseminated through networks and partners variable. It is constructed with key variables in the field of future-oriented thinking among that are individually forecasted and in sum different stakeholders in order to foster the total manner compute into a single potential reflection on these key future-oriented issues trend of the future. The following course of to address the future challenges on a national action would then enable a more consolidated and global level. analysis that can complement established methods of analysis and shape short to The real and the most powerful tool of emancipation today would be ‘knowing’ - ‘knowing’ that our evolution is not yet complete but is ongoing, ‘knowing’ that we, like all other living species, have the capability to evolve and ‘knowing’ that we have the most powerful tool that Nature has yet produced for evolution, i.e. the human intellect and its corresponding sensitivity process. Today’s Leadership, which is a necessary component of making changes in the social dimension, needs two indispensable ingredients for becoming truly effective: a) understanding of the history of mind and b) understanding of the nature and mechanics of the mind. Raza Kazim, Sanjan Nagar Institute of Philosophy and Arts PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX STATE OF FUTURE INDEX PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX The State of the Future Index (SOFI) is a forecasted index, based on selected variables, to show whether “The Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) should be the future outlook is improving or not. As such, the a very useful tool for evaluating where we are heading. index is used in policy analysis to assess whether the The policymakers can use it to make realistic decisions to contemplated future will move towards betterment. achieve the desired results and adjust the course of action SOFI, which is composed of global and country level to keep the country on the preferred path.” - Senator variables, indicates whether human conditions in a Mohsin Khan Leghari, Senate of Pakistan given country or region have improved or not and whether they seem likely to improve or not. The index is comprehensive in its coverage because it Pakistan State of Future Index, like global State of captures important dimensions of sustainable human Future Index, follows an established methodology as development such as economics, environment, politics defined by The Millennium Project and its sixty nodes etc. across the world. Pakistan State of Future Index (PK- SOFI) is the first attempt in the country and a first The global State of Future Index (SOFI) has been step towards establishing a trend towards data-driven prepared and published by The Millennium Project foresight oriented policymaking. Policymakers are just since 2000. It has shown that the general future was one of the stakeholders that can use this tool. Foreign improving (though not at similar trends as in previous investors can identify the trends established by PK- decades) until 2008 when the global financial crisis SOFI to make decisions about their future investment, hindered the progress as was anticipated. At country a transparent mechanism for computation of PK-SOFI levels, some countries in Latin America and North will develop trust among different stakeholders while at America have been preparing national SOFIs relying the same time develop a consensus for driving Pakistan on unique set of variables in each country (generally towards a better future. referred to as National Focus Indices). South Korea, South Africa, Kuwait, Azerbaijan and Turkey are also among the countries with national SOFIs. This report presents the first SOFI for Pakistan i.e. Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI), 2017. As a national index, PK-SOFI has considered thirty variables that are further classified using STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) approach and thus cover a wide variety of indicators that will help Pakistan make some relative sense of the future. In the PK-SOFI, selected variables were forecasted and combined into a single measure. The outlook of the future seems to be changing, PK-SOFI makes it clear how, and the index makes it possible to identify the factors responsible for the change. PK-SOFI can be used for policy purposes: plans and strategic direction which could be evaluated and a comparison drawn on the basis of their impact on the National State of the Future Index.  ANTICIPATING 2027 VARIABLES OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) was computed with thirty variables. These variables were selected using sentiment analysis along with expert judgment. The list of variables agreed upon by the collaborative network is relevant to the country’s overall development. S. No. Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) Variables 1A Population, total in millions 1 CO2 emissions (kt) 2 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 3 Food production index 4 Forest area (% of land area) 5 Freedom level (Freedom from corruption) 6 GDP per capita (constant 2010 US $) 7 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil eq.) 8 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 9 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 10 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 11 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption (1=low to 6=high) 12 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 13 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 14 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 14A Internally displaced persons (number, high estimate) 15 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (www.picss.net) 16 People Voting in Elections % of national population of voting age) 17 Physicians (per 10,000 people) 18 Population growth (annual %) 19 Improved water source (% of population with access) 20 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop) 21 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 22 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 23 Tertiary Education (Universities) 24 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 25 Total debt service (% of GNI) 26 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate) 27 Imports (Millions US $) 28 Exports (Millions US $) 29 Federal Taxes (Total in millions) 30 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) Note: Variables 14A and 16 were dropped due to insufficient data and are not included in the final computation.  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX METHODOLOGY Steps involved in computation of Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) are: • Identification and selection of variables for Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) • Collection of Historical Data • Forecasting of Variables for next ten years • Each variable was non-dimensionalized • Assigning Weights and Best/Worst Values of Variable • Establishing Baseline PK-SOFI • Conducting Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study • Construction of PK-SOFI using the Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study Results IDENTIFICATION AND SELECTION OF VARIABLES FOR PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX (PK-SOFI) Foresight Lab’s collaborative network, which comprises of academia, think tanks, policymakers, security experts and industry professionals, decided on which variables should be selected for computing Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI). Experts from The Millennium Project and collaborative network of universities and think tanks finalized the selection of the variables to be computed, which became the foundation of this National Focus SOFI. The academia and the experts self-assigned variables for identification of past and future trends and defined how these variables can create opportunities or challenges for Pakistan in the future. Two variables were dropped from the final computation because of inadequate historical data. In future computation also, the collaborative network can decide on the variables to be included or excluded from the study. COLLECTION OF HISTORICAL DATA Annual national historical data for selected variables were collected. The data extends 20 years back in time, where possible even further back. For the years in which data was missing, the missing points were approximated by interpolation using an equation obtained by fitting the available historical data points.  ANTICIPATING 2027 S. No. Variable Details Source(s) Population, total in millions Total population is based on the Pardee Center for International de facto defini-tion of population, Futures (Ifs), World Bank and which counts all residents Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 1A regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates. CO2 emissions (kt) Carbon dioxide emissions are Carbon Dioxide Information those stemming from the burning Analysis Center, Environmental of fossil fuels and the manufacture Sciences Division, Oak Ridge 1 of cement. They include carbon National Laboratory, Tennessee, dioxide produced during United States. consumption of solid, liquid and gas fuels and gas flaring. Alternative and nuclear energy (% Clean energy is non-carbohydrate International Energy Agency of total energy use) energy that does not produce Statistics. These are subject to carbon dioxide when generated. It their terms and conditions. 2 includes hydropower and nuclear, geothermal, and solar power, among others. Food production index Food production index covers food Food and Agriculture Organization, crops that are considered edible electronic files and website. and that contain nutrients. Coffee 3 and tea are excluded because, although edi-ble, they have no nutritive value. Forest area (% of land area) Forest area is land under natural Food and Agriculture Organization, or planted stands of trees of at electronic files and website. least 5 meters in situ, whether productive or not, and excludes 4 tree stands in agricultural production systems (for example, in fruit plantations and agroforestry systems) and trees in urban parks and gardens. Freedom level (Freedom from The score for the Freedom of The Freedom from Corruption corruption) corruption index is derived index for Pakistan from the primarily from Transparency Heritage Foundation uses mostly International’s Corruption the data from Transparency Perceptions Index. For countries International, an NGO that tracks that are not covered in the CPI the corruption perceptions around the 5 freedom from corruption score is world. determined by using information from internationally recognized and reliable sources. Higher index values denote lower level of corruption.  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX GDP per capita GDP per capita is gross domestic World Bank national accounts (constant 2010 US $) product divided by midyear data, and OECD National Accounts population. GDP is the sum of data files. gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any 6 subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP per unit of energy use GDP per unit of energy use is International Energy Agency (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil the PPP GDP per kilogram of oil World/Country Statistics subject eq.) equivalent of energy use. PPP to its Terms and Conditions. GDP is gross domestic product converted to 2011 constant 7 international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as a U.S. dollar has in the United States. Intentional homicides (per 100,000 Intentional homicides are UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s people) estimates of unlawful homicides International Homicide Statistics purposely inflicted as a result of database. domestic disputes, interpersonal 8 violence, violent conflicts over land resources, inter gang violence over turf or control, and predatory violence and killing by armed groups. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 Infant mortality rate is the number Estimates Developed by the live births) of infants dying before reaching UN Interagency Group for Child one year of age, per 1,000 live Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, births in a given year. WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division). Projected 9 data are from the United Nations Population Division’s World Population Prospects; and may in some cases not be consistent with data before the current year. Individuals using the Internet (% of Internet users are individuals who International Telecommunication population) have used the Internet (from any Union, World Telecommunication/ location) in the last 3 months. ICT Development Report and 10 The Internet can be used via a database. computer, mobile phone, personal digital assistant, games machine, digital TV etc.  ANTICIPATING 2027 CPIA transparency, accountability, Transparency, accountability, and World Bank Group, Country Policy and corruption (1=low to 6=high) corruption in the public sector and Institutional As-sessment assess the extent to which the (CPIA) database. executive can be held accountable 11 for its use of funds and for the results of its actions by the elec- torate and by the legislature and judiciary. Life expectancy at birth, total Life expectancy at birth indicates United Nations Population (years) the number of years a newborn Divi-sion. World Population infant would live if prevailing Pro-spects, Census reports and patterns of mortality at the time oth-er statistical publications from of its birth were to stay the same national statistical offices, throughout its life. Eurostat: Demographic Statis- 12 tics, United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Report (various years), U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme. Youth literacy rate, population 15- Number of people age 15 to 24 UNESCO Institute for Statistics 24 years, both sexes (%) years who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on their everyday life, divided by the population in that age group. Generally, ‘literacy’ 13 also encompasses ‘numeracy’, the abil-ity to make simple arithmetic calculations. Divide the number of people aged 15 to 24 years who are literate by the total population in the same age group and multiply the result by 100.  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX Refugee population by country or Refugees are people who are United Nations High Commis- territory of origin recognized as refu-gees under the sioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 1951 Convention Relating to the Statistical Yearbook and data Status of Refugees or its 1967 files, complemented by statistics Protocol, the 1969 Organization of on Palestinian refugees un-der African Unity Convention Gov- the mandate of the UNRWA as erning the Specific Aspects of published on its website. Refugee Problems in Africa, people recognized as refugees in ac- cordance with the UNHCR statute, people granted refugee-like humanitarian status, and people pro-vided temporary protection. Asylum seekers–people who have 14 applied for asylum or refugee status and who have not yet received a decision or who are registered as asylum seekers–are ex-cluded. Palestinian refugees are people (and their descendants) whose residence was Palestine be-tween June 1946 and May 1948 and who lost their homes and means of livelihood as a result of the 1948 Arab-Israeli conflict. Country of origin generally refers to the nationality or country of citizenship of a claimant. Internally displaced persons Internally displaced persons are Internal Displacement Monitor-ing (number, high estimate) people or groups of people who Centre. have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual resi-dence, in particular as a result of armed conflict, or to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situa-tions of generalized violence, violations of human rights, or natural or human-made disasters 14A and who have not crossed an international border. Due to Insufficient Data this Variable was dropped. It was recommended during one of the interaction with a Foresight Lab’s member policy network the critical nature of computing the var-iable for subsequent PK-SOFI.  ANTICIPATING 2027 People killed or injured in terrorist Pakistan Institute for Conflict and attacks Security Studies 15 People Voting in Elections % of Insufficient data national population of voting age) 16 Physicians (per 10,000 people) Physicians include generalist and World Health Organization’s specialist medical practitioners. Global Health Workforce Statistics, OECD, supplemented by country 17 data. Population growth (annual %) Annual population growth rate Derived from total population. for year t is the exponential rate Population source: United Nations of growth of midyear population Population Division. World from year t-1 to t, expressed Population Prospects, United 18 as a percentage. Population is Nations Statistical Division. based on the de facto definition Population and Vital Statistics of population, which counts all Report (various years), Census residents regardless of legal status reports. or citizenship. Improved water source (% of Access to an improved water WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring population with access) source refers to the percentage Programme (JMP) for Water of the population using an Supply and Sanitation improved drinking water source. The improved drinking water source includes piped water on premises (piped household water 19 connection located inside the user’s dwelling, plot or yard), and other improved drinking water sources (public taps or standpipes, tube wells or boreholes, protected dug wells, protected springs, and rainwater collection).  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 World Bank, Development day (2011 PPP) (% of pop) a day is the percentage of the Research Group. Data is based population living on less than on primary household survey $1.90 a day at 2011 international data obtained from government prices. As a result of revisions in statistical agencies and World PPP exchange rates, poverty rates Bank country departments. 20 for individual countries cannot be compared with poverty rates reported in earlier editions. The Head count ratio (HCR) is the proportion of a population that exists, or lives, below the poverty line. Malaria – Confirmed with The number of patients identified World Health Organization’s Microscopy (WHO) to have malarial parasite. The Global Health Workforce Statistics, microscopy test is used to identify OECD, supplemented by country 21 the parasite, this test involve data. staining and direct visualization of the parasite under the microscope. Research and development Expenditures for research and United Nations Educational, expenditure (% of GDP) development are current and Scientific, and Cultural capital expenditures (both public Organization (UNESCO) Institute and private) on creative work for Statistics. undertaken systematically to increase knowledge, including 22 knowledge of humanity, culture, and society, and the use of knowledge for new applications. R&D covers basic research, applied research, and experimental development. Tertiary Education (Universities) Number of Students enrolled in Economic Survey of Pakistan 23 universities. Proportion of seats held by women Women in parliaments are the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) in national parliaments (%) percentage of parliamentary seats 24 in a single or lower chamber held by women. Total debt service (% of GNI) Total debt service is the sum of World Bank, International Debt principal repayments and interest Statistics. actually paid in currency, goods, or services on long-term debt, 25 interest paid on short-term debt, and repayments (repurchases and charges) to the IMF.  ANTICIPATING 2027 Unemployment, total (% of total Unemployment refers to the share International Labour Organization, labor force) (national estimate) of the labor force that is without Key Indicators of the Labour work but available for and seeking Market database. employment. Definitions of labor 26 force and unemployment differ by country. Percentage of total workforce who are unemployed and are looking for a paid job. Imports (Millions US $) Goods and services brought into a Economic Survey of Pakistan country. 27 Exports (Millions US $) Good and services sent out of a Economic Survey of Pakistan 28 country. Federal Taxes (Total in millions) Total Federal Tax includes both Federal Board of Revenue – 29 direct and indirect taxes levied by Pakistan the government. Inflation, consumer prices (annual Inflation as measured by the State Bank of Pakistan %) consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the 30 cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services. EXTRAPOLATING THE DATA NON-DIMENSIONALISING THE VARIABLES The historical data presented in this study ranges from Since each of the thirty variables have a different the year 1997 to the year 2017. The values of each measure, for example, population is measured in units variable from 2017 onwards to 2027 were forecasted but R&D expenditure is in percentage of GDP, it was using various statistical techniques and each variable therefore necessary to non-dimensionalize each variable was given a curve fit that gives it a reasonable co- so that they can be computed in comparison. This was efficient of determination (R2), reducing the margin of done by picking a maximum and minimum value from errors between real data and the value produced by the each data set using the following formula below: chosen function. The curve fits for each variable are mentioned in the Annex. Non-dimensional value = (actual value of the variable– MIN)/(MAX – MIN)  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX ASSIGNING WEIGHTS AND BEST/WORST VALUES OF VARIABLES The Lab’s collaborative network assigned weightage to each of the variable i.e. providing the level of priority up to 10 being most essential. More than 20 experts participated in the National Focus SOFI. They were provided with a toolkit and an explanation of how PK-SOFI computation utilizes their opinion in the form of weightage. The weightage and best/worst values provided by the experts representing the median responses are mentioned below: Best Worst S. No. Variables Weights Value Value 1A Population, total in millions 8 125 185 1 CO2 emissions (kt) 6 160,000 250,000 2 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 5 6.0 4.5 3 Food production index 8 150 100 4 Forest area (% of land area) 5 2.1 1.2 5 Freedom level (Freedom from corruption) 8 30 20 6 GDP per capita (constant 2010 US $) 9 200 100 7 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil eq.) 7 20 10 8 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 6 2 10 9 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 7 40 70 10 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 6 85 40 11 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption (1=low to 6=high) 8 6 2 12 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 7 72 65 13 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 9 95 75 14 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 6 1,500,000 2,000,000 14A Internally displaced persons (number, high estimate) Insufficient data 15 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (www.picss.net) 7 9 5000 16 People Voting in Elections % of national population of voting age) Insufficient data 17 Physicians (per 10,000 people) 5 11 7 18 Population growth (annual %) 8 1.5 1.8 19 Improved water source (% of population with access) 9 98 90 20 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of pop) 9 10 20 21 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 7 10,000 500,000 22 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 7 0.55 0.33 23 Tertiary Education (Universities) 7 1,650,000 1,500,000 24 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 6 25 20 25 Total debt service (% of GNI) 6 1.5 3 26 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate) 9 5 10 27 Imports (Millions US $) 5 47,000 45,000 28 Exports (Millions US $) 6 40,000 20,000 29 Federal Taxes (Total in millions) 7 5,000,000 2,500,000 30 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 9 5 10  ANTICIPATING 2027 BASELINE PK-SOFI SOFI Year The weightage and best/worst values assigned by the Lab’s network of experts (Baseline) were used to construct the Baseline PK-SOFI. The non-dimensional values of 1997 0.488 each variable per year were multiplied with weightage assigned to that variable. 1998 0.491 The sum of each variable across the time period of 30 years (1997-2027) was calculated and divided by the sum value of the base year (2017). The values and 1999 0.548 shape of baseline PK-SOFI with value of unity for base year 2017 is as follows: 2000 0.516 2001 0.487 2002 0.636 2003 0.700 2004 0.722 2005 0.776 2006 0.820 2007 0.789 2008 0.792 Baseline PK-SOFI (1997-2027) 2009 0.742 1.4 2010 0.799 1.2 2011 0.830 1 2012 0.881 0.8 2013 0.898 SOFI 0.6 2014 0.953 0.4 2015 1.017 0.2 2016 1.020 0 2017 1.000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2018 1.002 Year 2019 1.018 2020 1.035 2021 1.052 2022 1.069 2023 1.084 2024 1.100 2025 1.117 2026 1.136 2027 1.158  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX REALTIME DELPHI (RTD) STUDY “It is becoming increasingly difficult to keep up with all the technological advances. In such times it is imperative for the policymakers to develop a better sense of the undercurrents that drive decisions. The Realtime Delphi (RTD) is an effective tool for the policymakers to make informed and timely decisions. Our policies must cater for our expectations of the future.” - Farzana Yaqoob, Asia Institute of Public Policy Realtime Delphi (RTD) is a structured, consensus based, online and anonymous communication process by which participants judge the gathered and forecasted data, thus assigning weightage, best/worst values to each variable. The RTD method was succinctly explained beforehand to participants. The details of the technique and participants are mentioned in the annex. The questions were like what level of priority (weightage), and best/worst values should be assigned to each variable. The results of the Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study are tabulated as follows.  ANTICIPATING 2027 Worst S. No. Variables Weights Best Value Value 1A Population, total in millions 8.50 193.44 293.01 1 CO2 emissions (kt) 9.00 83,850.48 167,841.68 2 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 9.00 7.80 3.51 3 Food production index 9.00 60.69 35.46 4 Forest area (% of land area) 9.00 4.39 1.85 5 Freedom level (Freedom from corruption) 9.00 46.85 17.82 6 GDP per capita (constant 2010 US $) 9.00 324.57 131.31 7 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of 9.00 23.49 9.41 oil eq.) 8 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 8.50 7.61 21.15 9 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 9.00 49.83 131.86 10 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 9.00 60.81 25.48 11 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption (1=low to 9.00 1.17 4.99 6=high) 12 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 8.00 69.87 42.25 13 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 9.00 52.96 49.45 14 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 9.00 518,053.15 1,559,277.32 14A Internally displaced persons (number, high estimate) Insufficient data 15 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (www.picss.net) 9.00 5,219.04 14,503.95 16 People Voting in Elections % of national population of voting Insufficient data age) 17 Physicians (per 10,000 people) 8.00 15.13 6.01 18 Population growth (annual %) 9.00 0.96 3.61 19 Improved water source (% of population with access) 9.00 47.76 42.50 20 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of 8.00 14.59 41.84 pop) 21 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 8.00 236,791.14 638,106.86 22 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 8.00 0.98 0.28 23 Tertiary Education (Universities) 8.00 2,462,667.63 1,058,336.50 24 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments 8.50 31.79 13.36 (%) 25 Total debt service (% of GNI) 9.00 3.82 9.44 26 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national esti- 8.00 4.14 12.40 mate) 27 Imports (Millions US $) 8.00 22,557.70 72,904.42 28 Exports (Millions US $) 8.00 6,812,853.70 2,654,891.17 29 Federal Taxes (Total in millions) 8.00 4,673,339.63 4,269,777.81 30 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 8.00 9.25 12.06  PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX CONSTRUCTION OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX (PK-SOFI) USING THE SOFI REALTIME DELPHI(RTD) STUDY RESULTS Year (RTD) The process used to compute Baseline PK-SOFI was repeated but this time with 1997 0.494 values of weights and best/worst values collected from the RTD Study. The results of 1998 0.476 this iteration are tabulated below: 1999 0.559 2000 0.566 2001 0.563 2002 0.636 2003 0.677 2004 0.697 2005 0.730 2006 0.793 RTD PK-SOFI (1997-2027) 2007 0.759 1.4 2008 0.806 1.2 2009 0.788 1 2010 0.819 0.8 2011 0.823 SOFI 2012 0.863 0.6 2013 0.826 0.4 2014 0.920 0.2 2015 0.948 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2016 0.991 Year 2017 1.000 2018 1.017 2019 1.041 2020 1.065 2021 1.090 2022 1.115 2023 1.139 2024 1.161 2025 1.186 2026 1.213 2027 1.240  ANTICIPATING 2027 COMPARISON OF TWO ITERATIONS OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX (PK-SOFI) “For governments to make people-centric policies, they must know in realtime what is happening (curate the data), use that data to make effective plans and after deployment follow up and assess if the decision made has created significant impact.” - Dr. Saad Ahmed Khan, Dadabhoy Institute of Higher Education (DiHE) The comparative results of two iterations show us a diversification of opinion and at the same time a consensus on how Pakistan’s future may look like. One of the reflections can be that people from different walks of life, who participated in Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study, have a comparatively positive outlook of the future. Participants of the Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study also gave overwhelmingly high or very high priority/weightage to almost all the variables selected for Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI). The weightages assigned in two iterations were separately applied on past data and compared but final result used only the results of first iteration (baseline) till year 2017 and consequently two indices were computed till year 2027, thus giving Pakistan two plausible states of the future. The results of two iterations are as follows: PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX SOFI SOFI Year (Baseline) (RTD) 1997 0.488 0.494 1998 0.491 0.476 1999 0.548 0.559 2000 0.516 0.566 2001 0.487 0.563 2002 0.636 0.636 2003 0.700 0.677 2004 0.722 0.697 2005 0.776 0.730 2006 0.820 0.793 2007 0.789 0.759 2008 0.792 0.806 2009 0.742 0.788 2010 0.799 0.819 2011 0.830 0.823 2012 0.881 0.863 2013 0.898 0.826 2014 0.953 0.920 2015 1.017 0.948 2016 1.020 0.991 2017 1.000 1.000 2018 1.002 1.017 2019 1.018 1.041 2020 1.035 1.065 2021 1.052 1.090 2022 1.069 1.115 2023 1.084 1.139 2024 1.100 1.161 2025 1.117 1.186 2026 1.136 1.213 2027 1.158 1.240  ANTICIPATING 2027 PK-SOFI Comparison 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 SOFI 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Year Baseline RTD PK-SOFI Comparison 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 SOFI 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Year Baseline RTD “Our education system, our research and development needs to become agile and robust which solves Pakistani challenges. Technology has had a great deal of impact on the behaviours of the younger generation, we must embrace the newer ways of learning as a collective.” - Shazia Ismat Zaidi, Bloomfield Hall System RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY IN PAKISTAN Dr. Aadil Nakhoda Institute of Business Administration  R&D INDUSTRY IN PAKISTAN There is a misconception that natural resources and below Zambia, Cameroon and Uzbekistan. This index is low-value added commodities, such as textile products, calculated by considering the diversity in the number of constitute world trade. On the contrary, world trade is products and its ubiquity, which is the number of other increasingly dominated by the increasing prominence countries that can produce the same product range as of capital and consumer goods that are dependent Pakistan. on knowledge-intensive production processes. There is an increasing role of research and development The indicators on human capital and research present a activities on global manufacturing output. One of the grim picture of the research and development activities biggest advantages of the movement in capital goods within Pakistan. The Pakistan State of Future Index and industrial inputs across borders is the transfer indicates research and development expenditures to of technology that is likely to be embedded in the equal 0.479 per cent of the GDP in 2027 (Graph and imported product. Unfortunately, Pakistan has been Forecasted Data Annexed). An optimistic outlook stuck in the vicious cycle of producing relatively low- should increase research and development expenditures value added goods. as a percentage of GDP to 0.6, while a more plausible outlook suggests a value ranging between 0.3 and 0.4. The import composition of Pakistan has changed The following are some recommendations to increase tremendously in the recent years in favor of capital the research and development as a percentage of GDP goods as a result of the advent of CPEC. Several to its optimistic outlook of 0.6. projects related to the development and the upgrading of the infrastructure fall under the ambit of CPEC. It First, the Higher Education Commission (HEC), is crucial to determine the benefits of such projects which regulates the quality of higher education and to all its stakeholders, which not only include the stresses on the importance of better research output private sector and the government but also the general in universities, must provide greater incentives to public. As Pakistan undertakes investments primarily researchers who focus on issues related to Pakistan. to improve the existing infrastructure of motorways For instance, universities with strong industry linkages and power plants, there is likely to be a ‘spillover effect’ must be rewarded particularly if their research output into all sectors of the economy. One of the benefits is relevant to the stakeholders across all economic of having an efficient transportation system is that it sectors. Investments by the private sector organizations, reduces the travel time not only between the ports think tanks, and trade bodies and associations must be and the commercial and industrial centers, but also encouraged in developing specific research funds and between agricultural lands and their markets. Further, avenues for research collaborations. it also reduces the transit time for labor that commutes within the cities, increasing their productivity levels Second, HEC must focus on applied research and as more time can be allotted to both work and leisure experimental development (as defined in WDI), rather activities. Therefore, the role of research institutions is than on basic research to create new knowledge essential in not only determining the costs and benefits that is not only likely to be flawed due to the poor of investment projects at the micro-level but also quality of educational and research institutions but recommending policies that increase the productivity also risk being irrelevant to other researchers and the levels of the workforce and the capital employed. The society in Pakistan. Applied research and experimental World Development Indicators provides information development that is Pakistan-specific, even if it on the research and development expenditures as a replicates research ideas developed in more advanced percentage of GDP. Interestingly, the world average countries, must be encouraged and provided monetary has remained consistently between 1.99 in 1996 and incentives. This will also likely increase the percentage 2.13 in 2012. Pakistan peaked at 0.63 in 2007. On of research and development expenditures to GDP. the other hand, the value for China has consistently increased, from 0.57 in 1996 to 2.02 in 2013. The Lastly, the undergraduate-level university education Global Innovation Index (GII) ranks Pakistan at 113 must include courses on the improvement of writing out of 127 countries, below Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and and analytical skills as well as courses that introduce Madagascar. On the other hand, India is ranked 60 and students to major issues being faced by the Pakistani China is ranked 22. The Atlas of Economic Complexity society. HEC and the relevant accreditation bodies must by the Center for International Development at Harvard design a curriculum that does not solely concentrate on University ranks Pakistan at 100 out of 124 countries, their specialization courses. For instance, engineering  ANTICIPATING 2027 and medical programs must include courses that improve the writing and analytical skills of young researchers as well as introduce them to courses that discuss the most important issues faced by the society in Pakistan. This will help develop research ideas in their respective fields that are more meaningful to the Pakistani society and increase the returns on research and development expenditures. STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES  STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES “In the march of civilizations and nations if you can not look back from where you started, and then again look forward where you are heading, you may as well keep working in circles or spirals with incremental advancement, in the shape of expanding diameters or winding spirals. But if you are lucky to have a binocular or telescope and a source of long-range spotlight, you have the ability to carve multiple pathways in the most economical and efficient manner. The availability of data at global proportions with the technology that not only can process it fast, but also intelligently project the likely emerging trends, with the help of artificial intelligence, is one critical tool for the decision- makers.” - Lt Gen (Retd.) Naeem Khalid Lodhi, Center for Global and Strategic Studies Since the beginning of the study, the variables were being put through an intensive STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) review with the internal teams, the collaborative network, and the members of the policy network. The variables were categorized under strands that included: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. This exercise was carried to make better sense of the variables through an entirely different prism, this was not part of the over all SOFI methodology but an additional technique which the team found reasonable to be used when computing PK-SOFI in subsequent years. More deepened understanding will be developed over the next year. The technique applied as an experiment in the inaugural report is an attempt to encourage the decision-makers to explore deep and to think longer-term about the environment in which these variables as combination or independently may impact the overall assessment of the country’s future. This consideration is to imagine the drivers of change that are most likely to become more dominant over time, an aspect of which will be covered in the Trend Impact Analysis. This analysis will cover future developments that might occur which could affect Pakistan’s State of Future; exploring unexpected events that will change the extrapolations of the variables. This will further enhance Pakistan State of Future Index analysis.  ANTICIPATING 2027 Food availability (Kcalories/cap/day) Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population) Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy S Internet Users (per 1,000 population) GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) T Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above) Population growth (annual %) Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of national population) Tertiary Education (Universities) R&D Expenditures (percent of national budget) Imports (Millions US $) E Exports (Millions US $) Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) CO2 emissions (percent of global emissions) Energy produced from non-fission, non-fossil sources (percent of total primary national energy supply) E Forest Lands (percent of national land area) Freedom Level (0-100) Levels of Corruption in Public institutions (as measured by Transparency International surveys) Life expectancy at birth (years) Number of refugees displaced from the country (percent of P national population) People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (percent of national population) Physicians (per 10,000 people) Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of national population) Seats held by women in national parliament (percent of all national members) Total Debt Service (percent of GNI) Unemployment, total (percent of national labor force)  STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES SOCIAL SPHERE SOFI SOFI Year • Food availability (Kcalories/cap/day) (Baseline) (RTD) • Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population) 1997 0.35 0.35 • Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1998 0.41 0.41 • Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy 1999 0.45 0.45 “Family is the fundamental unit of the society and this unit defines 2000 0.47 0.47 the overall theory, behavior and character of the society. When we talk about the future we must understand the importance of family 2001 0.46 0.46 planning institutes and the dominating role of religion in our society. It 2002 0.50 0.50 is time we take on the responsibility to initiate a debate where people have a dialogue between and amongst civilizations so we advance the 2003 0.56 0.56 purpose of human spirit.” – Dr. Samia Raheel Qazi, Member Council 2004 0.61 0.61 of Islamic Ideology and Director Foreign Affair Women Wing Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 2005 0.68 0.68 2006 0.72 0.72 The two iterations of Pakistan State of Future Index show marked difference as far as social conditions of Pakistan is concerned. 2007 0.78 0.78 There is an overall growth but at a nominal rate. 2008 0.81 0.81 “Many laws require amendments, especially the Family Law; whereby 2009 0.84 0.84 the fathers as natural and legal guardians of the minor are strictly 2010 0.83 0.83 directed to adhere to duties towards the minor but when it comes to rights they get a minimum of the same despite enduring the rigors of 2011 0.87 0.87 litigation; this creates instability in the minor which leads to social 2012 0.90 0.90 chaos.” - Advocate Jamila Jahanoor Aslam Expert in Family Law 2013 0.65 0.65 2014 0.93 0.93 2015 0.96 0.96 2016 0.98 0.98 2017 1.00 1.00 2018 1.02 1.02 2019 1.04 1.04 2020 1.06 1.06 2021 1.07 1.07 2022 1.09 1.09 2023 1.10 1.11 2024 1.09 1.10 2025 1.10 1.12 2026 1.11 1.13 2027 1.11 1.15  ANTICIPATING 2027 TECHNOLOGICAL SPHERE SOFI SOFI Year • Internet Users (per 1,000 population) (Baseline) (RTD) 1997 0.00 0.00 1998 0.00 0.00 The initial findings suggest that the number of internet users in Pakistan is likely to grow exponentially over the next ten years. 1999 0.00 0.00 The weightage assigned in this case by the participants in the two 2000 0.00 0.00 iterations of the study was also on a higher scale. 2001 0.07 0.07 “Consider the ‘Internet’ as the printing press of the past but with much 2002 0.14 0.14 greater impact. This development would be underpinning the public service delivery; health, education, agriculture, governance to name 2003 0.28 0.28 a few. Billions of things would be connected over the Internet. The 2004 0.34 0.34 Internet of Everything will drive breakthrough innovation - nations that adapt will lead, And yet, although it is difficult to predict, but we 2005 0.35 0.35 now have much greater ability to harness the potential to use this to 2006 0.36 0.36 benefit the humanity in all aspects of well-being.” - Syed Ismail Shah Chairman Pakistan Telecommunication Authority 2007 0.37 0.37 2008 0.38 0.38 2009 0.41 0.41 2010 0.44 0.44 2011 0.49 0.49 2012 0.55 0.55 2013 0.60 0.60 2014 0.76 0.76 2015 0.99 0.99 2016 0.92 0.92 2017 1.00 1.00 2018 1.09 1.18 2019 1.18 1.27 2020 1.29 1.38 2021 1.39 1.48 2022 1.51 1.60 2023 1.63 1.72 2024 1.75 1.84 2025 1.89 1.98 2026 2.03 2.12 2027 2.18 2.27  STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES ECONOMIC SPHERE SOFI SOFI Year • GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) (Baseline) (RTD) • GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil 1997 0.55 0.55 equivalent) 1998 0.55 0.55 • Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above) • Population growth (annual %) 1999 0.55 0.55 • Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of national 2000 0.56 0.56 population) • Tertiary Education (Universities) 2001 0.56 0.56 • R&D Expenditures (percent of national budget) 2002 0.60 0.60 • Imports (Millions US $) • Exports (Millions US $) 2003 0.64 0.64 • Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) 2004 0.68 0.68 • Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 2005 0.70 0.70 “The state of future of Pakistan is improving, given the stability in 2006 0.74 0.74 the political and stability in macroeconomic indicators.” – Gulrukh Mehboob, Institute of Management Sciences (IMS), Peshawar 2007 0.76 0.76 2008 0.80 0.80 2009 0.82 0.82 2010 0.84 0.84 2011 0.85 0.85 2012 0.90 0.90 2013 0.93 0.93 2014 0.96 0.96 2015 0.95 0.95 2016 0.98 0.98 2017 1.00 1.00 2018 1.02 1.02 2019 1.03 1.06 2020 1.05 1.09 2021 1.07 1.13 2022 1.08 1.16 2023 1.10 1.20 2024 1.11 1.23 2025 1.13 1.27 2026 1.14 1.30 2027 1.16 1.34  ANTICIPATING 2027 ENVIRONMENTAL SPHERE SOFI SOFI Year • CO2 emissions (percent of global emissions) (Baseline) (RTD) • Energy produced from non-fission, non-fossil sources (percent 1997 1.05 1.05 of total primary national energy supply) 1998 1.02 1.02 • Forest Lands (percent of national land area) 1999 1.01 1.01 2000 0.88 0.88 “Structured planning tools that incorporate scientific rigor and expertise are few and far between. In this context the initiative by 2001 0.96 0.96 Foresight Lab to develop a State of Future Index for Pakistan is a 2002 0.98 0.98 pioneering achievement. The use of Realtime Delphi Technique and a broad range of variables in the ecological and social arena are 2003 1.08 1.08 prescient and persuasive. This toolkit has the potential to assist both 2004 0.99 0.99 the Pakistani government as well as international development donors in prioritizing their interventions to gain maximum impact in a resource 2005 1.06 1.06 scarce environment.” – Dr. Prof. Saleem H. Ali, Blue and Gold 2006 0.97 0.97 Distinguished Professor of Energy and the Environment University of Delaware 2007 0.79 0.79 2008 0.64 0.64 2009 0.76 0.76 2010 0.89 0.89 2011 0.95 0.95 2012 0.90 0.90 2013 1.05 1.05 2014 0.94 0.94 2015 0.96 0.96 2016 0.98 0.98 2017 1.00 1.00 2018 1.02 1.05 2019 1.05 1.12 2020 1.08 1.20 2021 1.11 1.29 2022 1.14 1.40 2023 1.18 1.52 2024 1.21 1.66 2025 1.25 1.81 2026 1.30 1.97 2027 1.34 2.15  STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES POLITICAL SPHERE SOFI SOFI Year • Freedom Level (0-100) (Baseline) (RTD) • Levels of Corruption in Public institutions (as measured by 1997 0.67 0.67 Transparency International surveys) 1998 0.63 0.63 • Life expectancy at birth (years) • Number of refugees displaced from the country (percent of 1999 0.76 0.76 national population) 2000 0.59 0.59 • People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (percent of national population) 2001 0.47 0.47 • Physicians (per 10,000 people) 2002 0.81 0.81 • Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of national population) 2003 0.85 0.85 • Seats held by women in national parliament (percent of all 2004 0.85 0.85 national members) • Total Debt Service (percent of GNI) 2005 0.95 0.95 • Unemployment, total (percent of national labor force) 2006 0.98 0.98 “Injustice, inequality and discrimination against its own citizens 2007 0.78 0.78 weaken the present and the future of any State. Pakistan is learning 2008 0.82 0.82 and adjusting to democracy. Interference in the process will only delay its success.” – Syed Ali Raza Abidi, Muttahida Qaumi Movement 2009 0.74 0.74 2010 0.77 0.77 2011 0.86 0.86 2012 0.86 0.86 2013 0.84 0.84 2014 0.93 0.93 2015 1.01 1.01 2016 1.00 1.00 2017 1.00 1.00 2018 1.00 1.03 2019 1.01 1.04 2020 1.02 1.05 2021 1.03 1.06 2022 1.04 1.07 2023 1.04 1.07 2024 1.05 1.08 2025 1.06 1.09 2026 1.08 1.11 2027 1.09 1.12  ANTICIPATING 2027 REALTIME DELPHI (RTD) STUDY see the answers given by all participants in Realtime, thus attempt to arrive at a consensus and at the same Realtime Delphi (RTD) Method is an established method time maintain the diversity of responses. To ensure used by The Millennium Project in computation of that more participants give their opinion and revisit the Global State of Future Index. Realtime Delphi (RTD) is Realtime Delphi answers, the administrators sent out conducted online with questions pertaining to variables reminder emails during the study. Realtime Delphi (RTD) selected for State of Future Index. Method was employed because systems include: speed, flexibility, lower costs, and centralization of a data bank • A space for a respondent to provide his or her of questions and responses. numerical estimate of the priority of each item on a Likert-like scale Breakdown of the Participants of Realtime Delphi (RTD) • A space for participants to give his/her estimate Study give an understanding of the overall participation of best/worst values keeping under consideration in terms of gender, provinces, level of education: the past data of twenty years and projected data of next ten years. RTD Participants Number • Answers submitted by other participants in real Total Registered Users 305 time Users who completed profiles 280 • Ability to revisit his/her answers within a specified Users who partially filled the RTD 39 time period Users who completed the RTD 112 The key to a successful Realtime Delphi study lies in the participation; since the results of a Delphi depend on the knowledge and cooperation of the participants. In a statistically based study, such as a public opinion poll, participants are assumed to be representative of a larger population; in the Realtime Delphi study, there is no such compulsion. The online module of Realtime Delphi was developed by AGAHI’s Technology Partner Interactive Group of Companies and was opened to public on 11th August 2017 and closed on 2nd September 2017. The participants in this online study comprised of people from all walks of life, from students to business community to entrepreneurs. It was also ensured that participants are from all provinces of Pakistan along with special regions to ensure a diversity of opinion in the final result. As previously mentioned, responses were updated in realtime and the participants had the choice to revisit within the specified time period of the study. To ensure further transparency, two iterations of PK-SOFI were created: • First iteration using opinion of academics and think tanks, namely Baseline PK-SOFI • Second iteration using the results of public Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study The central weakness of Realtime Delphi is its failure to attract most of its participants to re-visit their answers. The low revisit rate of participants might raise an objection that the feedback principle of Realtime Delphi is being violated, but all participants, first timer or not, STEEP CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES Participants of RTD Study RTD Participants by Level of Education Doctorate Users who completed profiles Graduate Users who partially Masters filled out RTD Undergraduate Users who completed Others RTD Unknown RTD Participants by Province RTD Participants by Gender AJK Baluchistan Gilgit Baltistan Females Federal Territory Males KPK Punjab Other  ANTICIPATING 2027 RESULTS OF PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX (PK-SOFI) “Pakistan State of Future Index gives a reasonable foresight and can be used to follow-up on country’s progress.” - Ghazala Rafique, Aga Khan University Pakistan State of Future Index - 2017 1.400 1.200 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 Past SOFI (Baseline) SOFI (RTD) The results of Pakistan State of Future Index (PK- HOW CAN PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX SOFI) give an overview of the past twenty years and (PK-SOFI) HELP? an outlook of what the future may look like in next ten years. Certain dips in the index point from the previous Pakistan State of Future Index (PK-SOFI) can give years can be explained through socio-economic and policymakers a clear picture of last twenty years political lens, which would indicate the Index’s ability to and the potential of the next ten years. If required, accurately quantify the state of the country. every subsequent iteration of PK-SOFI can integrate more variables to encompass a wide variety of future It can be observed that there is a difference in opinions challenges. Globally, decision-makers are moving of academics, think tanks and the Realtime Delphi towards a data-driven foresight research. (RTD) participants’ sentiment regarding the thirty variables selected for computing PK-SOFI. The results of Realtime Delphi (RTD) Study seem to imply that the public opinion about the accumulative effect of the thirty variables is optimistic, although the accumulative growth rate of thirty variables is nominal. EVOLUTIONARY MENTOLOGY Raza Kazim, Sadia Tariq, Iram Tauqir Sanjan Nagar Institute of Philosophy and Arts  EVOLUTIONARY MENTOLOGY “Pakistan State of Future Index points up the significance of We are looking at the issue of individual and social certain foundational factors that are quite often overlooked change from Nature’s standpoint, i.e. the logic of its in discourses on progress and development. The importance evolutionary journey, and breaking away from the of perspective building through synergies in diversity of hitherto ‘humanist’ approach, which has been the opinions and approaches needs to be much emphasised. fundamental of all past models and movement, whether Few are those who fathom the profundity of this aspect; religious or socio-political. The problem with the fewer still are aware of pertinent challenges, complexities, humanist approach is that it accepts the present human and impediments. This initiative is precious.” being as a completed product of Nature with minor - Asif Iftikhar, Lahore University of Management defects requiring some modifications and managing. In Sciences our view further ‘evolution’ of man and not ‘reform’ of existing man is the real issue of change. One cannot deny that man’s highly developed intellect and motivational or sensitivity processes have also The crisis and disintegration within and outside of enabled massive unprecedented and unending material man are due to his not recognizing the need for taking progress and productivity, scientific developments, the next step in the direction of his evolution. Where advanced technologies and inventions, sophisticated human evolution is a part of Nature’s journey from Arts, knowledge societies, complex socio-political the ‘dialectic of contradiction’1 to the ‘dynamic of organizations, etc. But all this is shadowed by the harmony’2, or from the random (the pre-living state post-industrial capitalist model, which is a product of Nature) to the intelligent process (state of Nature of the adversarial mental and emotional positions spearheaded by the intelligently evolved intellect based and paradigms within individuals and also in groups mind) states. Man’s further evolution will primarily and institutions. Living with this dichotomy is now an take place on the mental and not biological plane: in acknowledged and accepted part of normal human terms of his cognitive, emotional, feeling, sensitivity experience in both the personal and social domains. processes, intelligence, intellect and will; and then Thus on the one hand we find immense untapped his temperament and personality. It will be in terms potential for harmony, happiness and progress at all of the change in the basic design and functioning levels due to the very recent tsunami of scientific and of the contemporary operating mental complex of technological growth and its fallouts and consequences, man and not just aspectual and superficial behavioral and on the other the growing failure of the capitalist modifications in human mental capabilities and social model to provide a holistic, stable and long-term structures. direction to individuals and societies. The current model is anachronistic with major gaps and insufficiencies There is a need to install a new design framework3 for that need to be filled. That is why they are not working our mental processes and capabilities, which is driven for the contemporary human mind and life as a whole, by the mature intellect and developed sensitivity considering the many-sided complexity they have process. In order to make a new design and to achieved, especially in the period of science and restructure our existing mental processes, the need technology. to become intelligent about the existing structure, formation, evolution and functioning of our mental Factors that make these models inapplicable today processes is critical. Through this intelligence we are firstly, potential for material prosperity going can make mental tools required for dismantling and towards the age of abundance which is challenging the restructuring our existing emotional, idea, will processes foundations (based on scarcity) of the existing culture, and for generating (through genes and the brain socio-political and economic formations and structures. processes) new mental processes and functions with Secondly, the quantity and quality of the knowledge new interconnections. we have and are continuing to acquire about micro and macro processes is rendering past concepts and Today man’s mind and its knowledge fund have understanding obsolete and insufficient. Both these developed to a level where it is possible to undertake factors are bringing to light the hitherto neglected this task. The human intellect and developed sensitivity area of human focus—intelligence of man’s mind and process are capable of making a new mental design, a Nature’s evolutionary process and the next stage of ‘post-biological’ (not centered in biology) design, which their relationship—which has to now be a critical part of is derived from an intelligent understanding of the any process of individual and social change. evolutionary process of Nature and its logic and how 1 The dialectical process of motion, interaction and evolution of Nature defined and dominated by conflicts and contradictions within and amongst phenomena due to absence of knowing (in the form of evolved human consciousness). However, conflicts and contradictions are not a fundamental component of the dialectical process itself (as proposed in Marxist Materialism) but a consequence of its unconscious state. 2 The unfolding dialectical process in which an evolved human consciousness (as a product of the next stage of its evolution) becomes its integral component. Resulting in a more harmonious and dynamic interaction and evolutionary progression of phenomena (internal and external) towards qualitatively new levels of integration, efficiency and productivity, which minimize contradictions (pain) and maximize harmony (happiness).  ANTICIPATING 2027 the human mind is integrally connected to it. In fact it THE FUTURE OF is the most developed and complex product of Nature PAKISTAN STATE OF FUTURE INDEX through which Nature itself is on the verge of taking the next step in its own evolution. Through the maturing of As the inaugural SOFI for Pakistan, the Pakistan State the new intellect-based human mind, Nature itself can of Future Index (PK-SOFI) is a baseline to navigate the move towards more stable, harmonious and happiness future. Further annual iterations of PK-SOFI will provide producing interactions/processes and forms. And away a further clear picture of how Pakistan can navigate the from the existing unstable, contradiction/conflict and future. PK-SOFI in its future iterations can include more unhappiness producing interactions/processes and variables that are deemed to play an important role in forms, which if left unchecked will logically lead to the determining the future. nemesis of the human species and also non-human forms of Nature. The findings presented in this report suggest that while Pakistan maintains a growth by the index standard, Intelligent changes in the core design and functioning the growth rate is lower. Pakistan in past has faced a of the existing human mind and the ensuing formation dip in overall value of index due to unforeseen events of a new post-biological intellect based mind are a like terrorism and natural disasters. But a prospective pre-requisite for any changes in the social and cultural mindset regarding unforeseen events is necessary to structures and formations. A twenty-first century minimize the damage of such events. PK-SOFI is the mature composite rationality4 will be the foundation first step towards creating that mindset on a national of the new model and movement for social change. level. There should be an urgency to adopt immediate This rationality will be able to tap the real potential of policy reforms to ensure that Pakistan is on right track science and technology as the new means of production with respect to anticipated future. and use it to get rid of the real sources (material and mental) of man’s misery and unhappiness and The objectives of Pakistan State of Future Index (PK- move towards higher and new forms of harmony and SOFI) are: happiness. • To engage a select group of experts in an exercise Just as ‘Democracy’ was the cultural, economic and that produces a methodical assessment of future political system of Capitalism, the cultural, political opportunities and challenges. and economic system of Science and Technology will be ‘Contemporary Humanism’, where ‘Contemporary’ • To offer decision-makers insight on expert-based means the present stage of history, which can only be perceptions, which are coupled with an outline of understood in terms of and on the basis of past history practical steps to capitalize on opportunities and to and an understanding of the foundation of the present avert threats. period i.e. logic of science and technology as means of production; while ‘Humanism’ means the purpose of its “Politics in Pakistan has remained past-based, focused on applications, which is for man and his prosperity. This the pendulum between rule of the military and rule of the concept is a formulation of the journey and destination landlords. The state of the future index asks a different of the historical process in the present and applying it question: can Pakistan become futures-focused? This to human beings is its culture, politics and economics. means: one, can a collective purposeful based vision be The idea of ‘Contemporary Humanism’ will be the rope created; two, can politics be based on where the country that will tie all the internal components of an individual wishes to be in 2048 and not where it was in 1948; three, and then other individuals together. This process will can today’s decision be based on where we wish to go, gradually take the shape of a movement. And when a futures we wish to avoid, and the first and second order movement multiplies then it becomes the making of unintended consequences of these actions. In a nutshell - history. It produces a renaissance, which then goes on can Pakistan create tomorrow today?” to produce a new civilization. - Sohail Inayatullah, UNESCO Futures Chair 3 A new hierarchical organization of specific mental processes and functions in accordance with a design purpose for which the new processes have been created in the first place. 4 A comprehensive/holistic process of knowing and intellectual reasoning which encompasses for the first time a many-layered, in-depth understanding of mental processes as objective phenomena in addition to the existing macro and micro phenomena which have so far been the domain of philosophical and scientific rationality. ANNEX  ANNEX CURVE FITS S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 1A Population, total Third Degree y = 26417614.244 Though Population of Polynomial – 39318.210*x + Pakistan is growing at a 19.504*x^2-0.003*x^3 relatively linear rate, it was necessary to model the growth in numbers with a quadratic function to fit in data of past and precisely predict the future values 1 CO2 emissions Quadratic y = -838428500 increased number of (kt) + 831566.2*x – automotive vehicles and 206.1487*x^2 Pakistan's policy towards using the thermal/coal power plants in future makes it necessary to foresee a rise in Carbon Dioxide Emissions, quadratic function fits the both past and future data trends for this variable 2 Alternative and Quadratic y = -1300.444 Pakistan produces only nuclear energy + 1.222114*x – a nominal amount of (% of total energy 0.0002850877*x^2 energy from alternative/ use) non-conventional sources. Quadratic equation fits in the past data sets so it is considerably accurate way to predict the future trend 3 Food Production Exponential y = -32689.46 – Pakistan’s food production Index (-55.10305/0.001614544) has increased over the * (1 – e^(-0.001614544*x)) year, with exception of 2010, and it has seen an exponential but proportional growth. Thus the reason for modelling this variable with an exponential proportional growth  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 4 Forest area (% of Linear y = -0.05631579*x + Pakistan's forest area land area) 115.3774 is decreasing at a rate historically that is seeing a linear but nominal regression. Thus the modelling of this variable was done with a linear function of negative slope 5 Freedom Level Linear y = 0.2917293*x – Previous data sets shows (Freedom from 561.9549 a nominal increase Corruption) in Freedom levels in Pakistan. A linear function fits in perfectly the historical data and thus is a good approximation for the future 6 GDP per Capita Exponential y = -269.6264 – It will be a good question (constant 2010 (proportional (-2.950276e-10/- as to why this variable US$) rate growth) 0.01168473)*(1 – is modelled with an e^(+0.01168473*x)) exponential function. The answer is that only a Exponential Proportional Rate function is the one providing best curve fit for data sets of the past, and thus same function was used to interpolate the future values 7 GDP per unit Exponential y = 0.879728 – With increased energy of energy use (proportional (-1.426794e-36/- demand in Pakistan the (constant 2011 rate growth) 0.04048538)*(1 – use of energy per capita PPP $ per kg of e^(+0.04048538*x)) whether domestic or oil equivalent) industrial has and will see an exponential rise, but this exponential rise is a proportional growth rate.  ANNEX S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 8 Intentional Exponential y = 4.316746 – An Exponential homicides (per (proportional (-1.437255e-61/- Proportional Growth rate 100,000 people) rate growth) 0.06893383)*(1 – function was the only e^(+0.06893383*x)) mathematical function to give a curve for past data sets, so same function was used to interpolate future values. 9 Mortality rate, Symmetrical y = 20.88631 + (212.2235 A Symmetrical Sigmoidal infant (per 1,000 Sigmoidal – 20.88631)/(1 + Function gives a character live births) (x/1983.168)^73.04885) S curve. In the given variable there is a trend of decreasing values, the mentioned function fits in the historical data set perfectly and thus is a reasonable approximation for future values 10 Individuals using Symmetrical y = 651.9291 + (-7.064615 Modeling the increase the Internet (% of Sigmoidal – 651.9291)/(1 + in number of internet population) (x/2067.097)^131.3464) users by given function reasonably accommodates the historical data. A high valued exponent of 'x' gives an reasonable rise in number of internet users in future 11 CPIA Exponential y = 2.203692 – An Exponential transparency, (proportional (-5.430615e-76/- Proportional Growth rate accountability, rate growth) 0.08443532)*(1 – function was the only and corruption in e^(+0.08443532*x)) mathematical function to the public sector give a curve for past data rating (1=low to sets, so same function was 6=high) used to interpolate future 12 Life expectancy at Linear y = 0.2435688*x – The mentioned linear birth, total (years) 424.4096 equation with a positive gradient gives a good approximate of increase in the life expectancy in coming years and at the same time is a good curve fit for historical data  ANTICIPATING 2027 S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 13 Youth literacy Exponential y = -32963.06 – Increased number of rate, population (proportional (-70.52018/0.002103689) educational institutions, 15-24 years, both rate growth) * (1 – e^(-0.002103689*x)) gives us a exponential sexes (%) proportional growth in number of students enrolled at same time, the mentioned function is a good curve fit for historical data set 14 Refugee Linear y = 12879.11*x – Refugee influx is population 24326290 dependent on regional by country or political and economic territory of origin stability and cannot be as per say predicted accurately. It was reasonable to model this variable with a linear equation that provides a curve fit for past data. 14A Internally displaced persons Insufficient Data/Information (number, high estimate) 15 People killed or Gaussian (Bell y = 6755.279 * e^(- injured in terrorist Curve) (x – 2010.131)^2 / attacks (2*2.974093^2)) 16 People Voting in Elections (percent of national Insufficient Data/Information population of voting age) 17 Physicians (per Power Curve y = 6.438713e-90 * As per the predicted 1,000 people) x^27.27862 values of population, the values of population growth rate were calculated directly from Variable 1A (Population - in millions)  ANNEX S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 18 Population Degree 4 y = 1054209 + Quadratic Function growth (annual %) polynomial (-1396.269*x) + gives a good curve fit for (0.5201158*x^2) + historical data and thus (-0.00000002138329* was used to interpolate x^4) future values 19 Improved water Quadratic y = -3337.079 Poverty Head Count source (% of + 3.216541*x – Ratio has seen a nominal population with 0.0007518797*x^2 decrease over the years access) and a reciprocal quadratic function gibes a good curve fit for historical data sets 20 Poverty Reciprocal y = (x) / ((5255833.31) Bell Curve was the headcount ratio Quadratic + (-5257.595)*x + only function available at $1.90 a day (1.315)*x^2) that accounted for a (2011 PPP) (% of good curve fit for the population) mentioned variable. We are currently looking for more reliable data for this variable 21 Malaria – Gaussian (Bell y = A Logistical Power Confirmed with Curve) 998929300000000*e^(- Function gives a S Shaped Microscopy (x – 2795.084)^2/ curve. This function (WHO) (2*116.9985^2)) accounts for apparent nominal increase in value of given variable and the assumes that its value will remain relatively constant in coming years unless there is a drastic shift in policy to give preference to R&D development 22 Research and Ratkowsky y = (0.51)/ (1+ The given function gives development Model exp(8.66*10^2 – 4.3*10^- a stagnant value for R&D expenditure (% of 1 9x)) Expenditure, accounting GDP) for initial increase in historical data and assumes the future values to nominally increase. Unless the infra structure accommodates an increased student number  ANTICIPATING 2027 S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 23 Tertiary Education Sigmoidal y = (1634.02) / (1 + A Bell curve is the best (Universities) Function (x/2008.41)** (-610.67)) fit for historical data set and at the same time, the average of 5 years was used to ensure the accuracy as the legislature is elected for 5 years 24 Proportion Gaussian y = 22.05232*e^(- Data for given variable of seats held (Bell Curve) (x – 2008.364)^2/ was very haphazard and by women (average of 5 (2*18.56813^2)) at the same time it was in national years) difficult to give a perfect parliaments (%) curve fit. Sigmoidal function was the only one to give an approximate curve fit. The given function was then used to interpolate the future values which remained relatively unchanged 25 Total debt service Symmetrical y = 1.961024 + (6.157176 Unemployment was (% of GNI) Sigmoidal – 1.961024)/(1 + modelled with a multiple Function (x/2000.902)^774.7575) linear regression approach to account for factors like Youth Literacy, Year and Poverty. This is the what gave us an approximate curve fit as well as a reasonable values for the coming years 26 Unemployment, Multiple y = -520.847 – A S shaped curve that total (% of Linear 0.05552*Youth Literacy gives a good curve fit for total labor Regression + 0.26293*Year + historical data and thus force) (national 0.21745*Poverty reasonable values for the estimate) future 27 Imports (Millions Asymmetrical y = 47906.07 + (10483.9 – An Exponential US $) Sigmoidal 47906.07)/(1+(x/2003.44 Proportional Growth rate 3)^4350.01)^0.1055091 function was the only mathematical function to give a curve for past data sets, so same function was used to interpolate future values.  ANNEX S. Type of Curve Description Equation Explanation No. Fit 28 Exports (Millions Exponential – y = -153808.1 – An Exponential US $) Proportional (-0.006022598/- Proportional Growth rate Growth Rate 0.005999719)*(1 – function was the only e^(+0.005999719*x)) mathematical function to give a curve for past data sets, so same function was used to interpolate future values. 29 Federal Taxes Exponential – y = -16329550 – The historical data (Total) (Millions) Proportional (-0.008222326/- forgiven variable is Growth Rate 0.008318432)*(1 – very haphazard so it e^(+0.008318432*x)) was necessary to get an approximate fitting curve, this was done by the use of power curve and consequently same function was used to interpolate the future values 30 Inflation, Power Curve y = According to the statistics consumer prices 4.52857e-89*x^27.02094 provided by the state bank (annual %) of Pakistan, the inflation rate in country has no established patterns and fluctuates wildly from very low to high in subsequent years. This can be attributed to inconsistent economic policy. An average of inflation over last twenty years (1997- 2017) comes out to be 7.79% with values as high as 17% in 2009 and as low as 2.8% in 2002. It is projected that over the next ten years (2017-2027) the average inflation will be 9.5%. The curve fits in a reasonable manner with past data and future projections.  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS POPULATION (MILLIONS) 250 ● 240 ● ● ● 230 ● ● ● 220 ● ● 210 ● Population (Millions) ● 200 ● 190 ● ● 180 ● ● ● 170 ● ● ● 160 ● ● ● 150 ● ● ● 140 ● ● ● ● 130 ● 120 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS 170000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 160000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Kt) 150000 ● ● ● 140000 ● ● 130000 120000 ● ● 110000 ● ● 100000 ● ● ● 90000 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS ENERGY FROM NON FISSION, NON FOSSIL FUEL SOURCES (% OF TOTAL ENERGY PRODUCED) Alternative and Nuclear Energy (% of total energy 5.5 ● ● ● ● ● ● 5.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 4.5 ● ● ● ● use) ● 4.0 ● ● ● ● ● 3.5 ● ● ● ● ● 3.0 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted FOOD PRODUCTION INDEX 150 ● ● ● 140 ● ● Food Production Index (index points) ● ● ● 130 ● ● ● ● ● 120 ● ● ● ● ● ● 110 ● ● 100 ● ● ● ● 90 ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS FOREST AREA (% ) ● ● 2.8 ● ● ● 2.6 ● ● ● ● 2.4 ● ● Forest Area % ● 2.2 ● ● ● ● 2.0 ● ● ● ● 1.8 ● ● ● 1.6 ● ● ● ● 1.4 ● ● ● 1.2 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted FREEDOM LEVEL 30 ● ● ● ● ● ● 28 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Corruption Perception Index(CPI) 26 ● ● ● ● ● 24 ● ● ● ● ● ● 22 ● ● ● ● ● 20 18 16 14 12 10 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS GDP (BILLION US DOLLARS) 220 ● ● ● GDP Constant Dollars (billions US $) 200 ● ● ● ● 180 ● ● ● ● 160 ● ● ● ● 140 ● ● ● ● ● ● 120 ● ● ● 100 ● ● ● ● ● 80 ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted GDP PER UNIT OF ENERGY (US $) ● 16 ● 15 ● ● GDP per unit of Energy (US $) 14 ● ● 13 ● ● 12 ● ● 11 ● ● ● 10 ● ● ● 9 ● ● ● ● 8 ● ● ● 7 ● ● ● ● 6 ● ● ● ● 5 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS HOMICIDE RATE (PER 1,00,000) ● 14 ● 13 ● ● 12 ● ● Homicide Rate 11 ● ● 10 ● ● ● 9 ● ● ● 8 ● ● ● ● ● ● 7 ● ● ● ● ● ● 6 ● ● ● ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted INFANT MORTALITY (PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTH 95 ● ● Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 90 ● ● ● 85 ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● 75 ● ● ● ● 70 ● ● ● 65 ● ● ● ● 60 ● ● ● ● ● 55 ● ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS INTERNET USERS (% OF POPULATION) 40 ● ● 35 ● ● 30 ● ● Internet Users (%) 25 ● ● ● 20 ● ● ● ● 15 ● ● 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 5 ● ● ● 0 ● ● ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted CORRUPTION PERCEPTION (1=LOW TO 6=HIGH) 3.6 ● Corruption Perceptions − TI (Points (1=low to 3.5 ● 3.4 ● 3.3 ● 3.2 ● 3.1 ● 6=high)) ● 3.0 ● ● 2.9 ● ● 2.8 ● ● 2.7 2.6 2.5 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2.4 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2.3 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS) ● 69 ● ● ● Life expectancy at birth, total (years) ● 68 ● ● ● ● 67 ● ● ● ● ● 66 ● ● ● ● 65 ● ● ● ● 64 ● ● ● ● 63 ● ● ● ● 62 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted YOUTH LITERACY (AGE 15−24) (% OF POPULATION) ● ● 85 ● ● Youth Literacy Rate Ages 15−24 (%) ● ● ● 80 ● ● ● ● ● 75 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 70 ● ● 65 ● ● ● ● ● 60 ● ● ● 55 ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS REFUGEE POPULATION 2200000 ● 2100000 ● 2000000 ● Refugee population (UNHCR) 1900000 ● 1800000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1700000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1600000 ● ● ● ● 1500000 ● 1400000 1300000 ● ● 1200000 ● ● ● ● 1100000 ● ● 1000000 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted PEOPLE KILLED IN TERRORIST ATTACKS ● 10000 9000 People killed in terrorist attacks 8000 7000 ● 6000 ● 5000 ● ● 4000 ● ● ● ● 3000 2000 ● ● 1000 ● ● ● 0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS PHYSICIANS (PER 10,000) 10.5 ● ● 10.0 ● Physicians (per 10,000 of Population) ● ● ● 9.5 ● ● ● ● 9.0 ● ● ● 8.5 ● ● 8.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 7.5 ● ● 7.0 ● ● ● 6.5 ● 6.0 ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted POPULATION GROWTH RATE (%) 2.50 ● ● 2.45 2.40 ● Population Growth (annual %) ● 2.35 ● ● 2.30 ● ● 2.25 ● 2.20 ● ● ● 2.15 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 2.10 ● ● ● ● ● ● 2.05 ● ● 2.00 ● 1.95 ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS ACCESS TO IMPROVE WATER RESOURCES (% OF POPULATION) 94.0 ● 93.5 ● ● ● 93.0 ● ● ● ● Access to Drinking Water 92.5 ● ● 92.0 ● ● 91.5 ● ● ● 91.0 ● ● 90.5 ● ● ● 90.0 ● ● 89.5 ● ● ● 89.0 ● ● 88.5 ● ● ● 88.0 ● 87.5 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATIO (% OF POPULATION) 30 Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines ● ● ● 25 ● ● ● ● 20 (% of population) ● ● 15 ● ● ● 10 ● ● ● ● ● 5 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS MALARIA (CONFIRMED WITH MICROSCOPY) 450000 ● ● 400000 ● Number of Confirmed Case (WHO) ● 350000 ● ● ● 300000 ● ● ● 250000 ● ● ● ● ● 200000 ● ● ● 150000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 100000 ● ● ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted R&D BUDGET (% OF GDP) 0.65 ● 0.60 0.55 0.50 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.45 ● R&D Expenditure ● ● 0.40 ● 0.35 ● ● 0.30 0.25 ● 0.20 ● ● 0.15 ● ● ● 0.10 0.05 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS TERTIARY EDUCATION 1600000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1400000 ● ● ● 1200000 Entrolled Students ● 1000000 ● 800000 ● ● 600000 ● ● ● ● 400000 ● 200000 ● ● ● ● ● ● 0 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted PROPORTION OF SEATS HELD BY WOMEN IN NATIONAL PARLIAMENTS (%) ● ● ● ● ● 22 ● ● ● ● ● ● Women in Parliament (%) 21 ● ● ● ● ● 20 19 18 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 17 16 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS TOTAL DEBT SERVICE (% OF GNI) ● 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 Debt % of GNI ● 4.5 ● ● 4.0 ● ● ● ● 3.5 ● 3.0 2.5 ● ● ● 2.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1.5 ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted UNEMPLOYMENT ● 8.0 ● ● Unemployment Rate (Long Term) % ● ● 7.5 ● ● ● ● ● 7.0 ● ● ● 6.5 ● ● ● ● ● ● 6.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 5.5 ● ● 5.0 ● 4.5 ● 4.0 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX CURVE FITS - GRAPHS IMPORTS (MILLIONS US $) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 45000 ● ● ● ● 40000 ● ● Imports (Millions US $) 35000 ● ● ● 30000 ● 25000 ● 20000 ● 15000 ● ● ● ● ● 10000 ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted EXPORTS (MILLIONS US $) ● ● ● 35000 ● ● ● ● 30000 ● Exports (Millions US $) ● ● ● 25000 ● ● ● ● ● ● 20000 ● ● ● ● ● 15000 ● ● ● 10000 ● ● ● ● ● ● 5000 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANTICIPATING 2027 CURVE FITS - GRAPHS TOTAL FEDERAL TAXES 4500000 ● ● ● 4000000 ● ● ● 3500000 ● ● ● ● 3000000 ● ● Total Taxes ● ● 2500000 ● 2000000 ● ● ● 1500000 ● ● 1000000 ● ● ● ● 500000 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted INFLATION RATE (%) ● 16 14 ● Inflation (Annual %) 12 ● ● ● 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 8 ● ● ● ● 6 ● ● ● ● 4 ● ● ● ● 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Values ● Calibrated ● Predicted  ANNEX NON-DIMENSIONAL VALUES OF VARIABLES Variables Max Min 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Population, total 243 129 0.97 0.94 0.91 0.88 0.86 0.83 CO2 emissions (kt) 167792 94711 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.92 0.91 0.88 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 5 3 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.17 Food Production Index 146 81 0.00 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.09 0.11 Forest area (% of land area) 3 1 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.88 0.82 Freedom Level (Freedom from Corruption) 29 10 0.67 0.00 0.77 0.88 0.62 0.62 GDP per Capita (constant 2010 US$) 218 77 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.09 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per 16 6 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.06 kg of oil equivalent) Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 14 6 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.65 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 93 53 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.17 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 40 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in 4 2 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05 the public sector rating (1=low to 6=high) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 69 62 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10 0.12 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes 88 55 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.17 (%) Refugee population by country or territory of origin 2198797 1044462 1.43 1.43 1.43 0.28 0.00 1.39 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks 10436 0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 10 6 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.14 0.16 0.18 Population growth (annual %) 3 2 0.00 0.04 0.12 0.21 0.31 0.38 Improved water source (% of population with access) 94 88 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% 29 2 0.17 0.19 0.10 0.05 0.00 0.20 of population) Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 437449 73516 0.86 0.87 0.83 0.85 0.76 0.80 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.25 Tertiary Education (Universities) 1628210 91637 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 Proportion of seats held by women in national 23 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 parliaments (%) Total debt service (% of GNI) 7 1 0.00 0.54 0.36 0.51 0.46 0.50 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national 8 4 0.71 0.72 0.69 0.48 0.37 0.37 estimate) Imports (Millions US $) 47731 9432 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.02 Exports (Millions US $) 38188 7779 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.04 Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) 4457507 293631 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.04 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 17 3 0.37 0.65 0.80 0.95 0.89 1.00  ANTICIPATING 2027 NON-DIMENSIONAL VALUES OF VARIABLES Variables 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Population, total 0.80 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.66 0.63 0.60 CO2 emissions (kt) 0.84 0.76 0.73 0.67 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.57 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 0.32 0.30 0.41 0.37 0.27 0.10 0.23 0.40 Food Production Index 0.16 0.22 0.29 0.33 0.40 0.47 0.50 0.48 Forest area (% of land area) 0.82 0.76 0.76 0.70 0.70 0.64 0.58 0.58 Freedom Level (Freedom from Corruption) 0.67 0.83 0.77 0.57 0.57 0.62 0.72 0.77 GDP per Capita (constant 2010 US$) 0.12 0.17 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.37 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 0.08 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.19 0.23 0.25 0.26 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 0.67 0.65 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.58 0.57 0.55 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating (1=low to 6=high) 0.06 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.32 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.40 0.39 0.40 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 1.54 1.30 1.59 1.65 0.23 0.60 0.66 0.43 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks 0.99 0.94 0.97 0.86 0.70 0.50 0.00 0.34 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.26 0.26 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.40 0.40 Population growth (annual %) 0.43 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.38 Improved water source (% of population with access) 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) 0.30 0.40 0.45 0.52 0.58 0.67 0.72 0.76 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.81 0.75 0.57 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 0.49 0.60 0.75 0.73 1.18 0.80 0.77 0.82 Tertiary Education (Universities) 0.15 0.21 0.24 0.28 0.33 0.42 0.46 0.54 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.89 0.88 0.88 Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.57 0.44 0.83 0.94 0.92 0.92 0.87 0.81 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate) 0.29 0.44 0.39 0.66 0.82 0.85 0.76 0.75 Imports (Millions US $) 0.07 0.16 0.30 0.51 0.56 0.81 0.68 0.67 Exports (Millions US $) 0.10 0.14 0.21 0.27 0.29 0.35 0.31 0.36 Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.27 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 0.98 0.88 0.55 0.64 0.65 0.35 0.00 0.49  ANNEX NON-DIMENSIONAL VALUES OF VARIABLES Variables 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Population, total 0.57 0.54 0.50 0.47 0.44 0.40 0.37 0.33 CO2 emissions (kt) 0.57 0.56 0.62 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 0.47 0.42 0.52 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.59 Food Production Index 0.54 0.54 0.19 0.58 0.61 0.64 0.67 0.70 Forest area (% of land area) 0.52 0.52 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 Freedom Level (Freedom from Corruption) 0.72 0.67 0.77 0.67 0.93 0.98 0.85 0.86 GDP per Capita (constant 2010 US$) 0.39 0.43 0.47 0.52 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.65 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 0.30 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 0.52 0.54 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.49 0.52 0.53 0.55 0.57 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.23 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating (1=low to 6=high) 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.54 0.34 0.38 0.42 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 0.34 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.49 0.51 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 0.39 0.43 0.41 0.49 0.46 0.54 0.56 0.59 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 0.71 0.80 0.83 0.99 0.82 0.80 0.78 0.77 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks 0.57 0.65 0.69 0.54 0.68 0.82 0.94 0.98 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63 Population growth (annual %) 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.42 Improved water source (% of population with access) 0.28 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.35 0.39 0.41 0.43 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) 0.77 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.93 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.48 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 0.50 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 Tertiary Education (Universities) 0.65 0.79 0.96 0.96 0.77 0.77 0.92 0.94 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 0.89 0.89 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.70 Total debt service (% of GNI) 1.00 0.87 0.63 0.83 1.00 0.88 0.88 0.88 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate) 0.68 0.66 0.63 1.00 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.64 Imports (Millions US $) 0.82 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.94 0.98 0.99 Exports (Millions US $) 0.53 0.49 0.52 0.54 0.49 0.40 0.60 0.63 Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) 0.34 0.35 0.42 0.49 0.60 0.50 0.53 0.57 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 0.24 0.42 0.68 0.59 0.88 1.00 0.78 0.57  ANTICIPATING 2027 NON-DIMENSIONAL VALUES OF VARIABLES Variables 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Population, total 0.30 0.26 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.00 CO2 emissions (kt) 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.66 Alternative and nuclear energy (% of total energy use) 0.61 0.64 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.81 Food Production Index 0.73 0.76 0.79 0.82 0.85 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.94 Forest area (% of land area) 0.27 0.24 0.20 0.17 0.13 0.10 0.07 0.03 0.00 Freedom Level (Freedom from Corruption) 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 GDP per Capita (constant 2010 US$) 0.69 0.73 0.77 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 0.60 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.89 0.94 1.00 Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.24 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.75 Individuals using the Internet (% of population) 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.40 0.43 0.47 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating (1=low to 0.47 0.52 0.57 0.63 0.69 0.76 0.83 0.91 1.00 6=high) Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.71 0.73 Youth literacy rate, population 15-24 years, both sexes (%) 0.61 0.64 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.81 Refugee population by country or territory of origin 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 People killed or injured in terrorist attacks 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Physicians (per 1,000 people) 0.66 0.68 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.82 0.84 0.87 Population growth (annual %) 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.61 Improved water source (% of population with access) 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.60 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 Malaria – Confirmed with Microscopy (WHO) 0.45 0.42 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.13 Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 Tertiary Education (Universities) 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 Total debt service (% of GNI) 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate) 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.45 0.43 0.40 Imports (Millions US $) 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 Exports (Millions US $) 0.66 0.70 0.73 0.77 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.91 0.94 Federal Taxes (Total) (Millions) 0.60 0.63 0.67 0.70 0.74 0.78 0.81 0.85 0.88 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB  ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB The ecosystem of the new connected world does The Purpose of the Lab is to apply data-driven foresight not have a separate space for nonprofit or public research methods and techniques that pivots on platforms, fenced off from commercial space. Today, improving the well-being of the people of Pakistan. the Government, Private Sector, Academia, Media and the Civil Society are required to not only be strategic To ensure that the inaugural report covered a but also human-centric, well coordinated and prompt nationwide pulse, a Collaborative Network was initiated in service delivery. Pakistan’s future depends on the that included the academia, researchers, experts choices we create today and the decisions we make for and policymakers different in their nature of work, tomorrow’s generation. Without improving Pakistan’s heterogeneous in terms of their operating environment, foresight outlook, the challenges that confront society and whose interactions are supported by networked today will only compound in the coming years. Foresight methods like Realtime Delphi (RTD) to collectively give Lab connects the process of collective thinking building their input on the structure, behavior, and evolving on agreed set of prioritized opportunities for prudent dynamics of various variables to assess the compatibility sustainable solutions. The protocol of Foresight Lab and trend impact of the shortlisted variables in the long is intended to prepare a diagnostic framework by run. The network includes: analyzing current challenges and henceforth preparing an introspective strategy for tomorrow. The Lab is a PARTNERING ORGANIZATIONS think ware, therefore: ISLAMABAD • An open, systematic, participatory process that National University of Modern Languages (NUML) supports research design and formulation of Dr. Gulfam Khan Khalid Baghoor policies as a result with a medium to long-term Dr. Karamat Ali perspective. • An element of strategic thinking, which informs COMSATS Institute of Technology policymaking and enables strategic planning and Dr. Mansoor Shaukat action into coherent implementation. Dr. Saqlain Raza • A discourse that creates futures by examining Dr. Amna Nazeer the past trends generating collective insight without prejudicing the autonomy of individuals or Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU) organization’s participating insight. Dr. Shabana Fayyaz Dr. Ilhan Niaz The Foresight Lab technique is not a prediction, rather it’s a prescriptive-based mechanism to test Allama Iqbal Open University (AIOU) assumptions, which is in itself an ongoing process of Dr. Saqib Riaz thinking through the uncharted territories forming new neural pathways to chalk out alternate possibilities. This International Islamic University Islamabad (IIUI) process is continuously gauged; it reduces the element Dr. Arshad Zia of policy failures or inaction, which as a result is not only measured but is pursued using innovative means Institute of Space Technology (IST) in a manner that it is possibly diminished for achieving Dr. Zaffar M. Khan the right outcomes through modern day scientific approaches, while the challenges for human well-being Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) will keep presenting themselves. This data-driven Khalid Rahman strategic foresight research development and analysis Naufil Shahrukh aims to deliver public good with sustainability being the guiding paradigm. Strategic Visions Institute (SVI) Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema The Objective of the Lab is to create and foster an Saadia Kazmi ecology of Foresight perspectives in Pakistan and Asma Khalid enable decision-makers to opt for appropriate policy choices and establish strategic narrative in support. Asia Institute of Public Policy Farzana Yaqoob  ANTICIPATING 2027 Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies Karachi University Maj Gen (Retd.) M. Saad Khattak Prof. Dr. Moazzam Ali Khan Abdullah Khan Prof. Dr. Abid Hasnain Gul Dad Prof. Dr. Nasir Salman Prof. Dr. Nabeel Ahmed Zubari China Study Center Syed Tanvir Jaferi PESHAWAR Institute of Management Sciences (IMS) Center for Global and Strategic Studies (CGSS) Dr. Muhammad Nawaz Maj Gen (Retd.) Khalid Amir Jaffery, HI(M) Dr. Awais Adnan Lt Gen (Retd.) Naeem Khalid Lodhi(M) Dr. Sajid Anwar Lt Col (Retd.) Khalid Taimur Akram Dr. Adnan Amin Dr. Shahwali Khan IGNITE, National Technology Fund Gulrukh Mehboob Yusuf Hussain Huda Munawar Abdullah Khan Najm ul Saher Muhammad Ali Iqbal Khurram Saleem GILGIT Karakoram International University BAGH Tasawar Baig Women University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir Saranjam Baig Ghayur Abbas Uzma Gardazi QUETTA Balochistan University of Information Technology, LAHORE Engineering and Management Sciences (BUITEMS) Beaconhouse National University (BNU) Zafarullah Muttaqi Armaan Malik Dr. Nazeer Ahmed Dr. Munawar Sabir Dr. Shahjahan Dr. Muhammad Umer Hayat Muhammad Jawad Khan Sanjan Nagar Institute of Philosophy and Arts University of Balochistan (UoB) Raza Kazim Dr. Abdul Malik Saadia Tariq Rakae Jamil RAHIM YAR KHAN Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering & IT KARACHI Institute of Business Administration (IBA) Dr. Aadil Nakhoda Dr. Faisal Iradat Dadabhoy Institute of Higher Education (DIHE) Dr. Saad Ahmed Khan Dr. Arsalan Khan Rabia Dadabhoy  ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB FUTURES COUNCIL Diplomacy and Security. His training and teaching at CSRM include modules on mineral economic history and conflict resolution for the Anglo American PROF. DR. ATTA UR REHMAN is a leading scientist Advanced Social Management Program held in South and scholar in the field of organic chemistry from Africa and Chile (in partnership with the University of Pakistan, especially renowned for his research in the Cambridge, UK). various areas relating to natural product chemistry. With over 700 publications in the field of his expertise, DR. ILHAN NIAZ is a Professor of History at Quaid- he is also credited for reviving the higher education e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He is also and research practices in Pakistan. Dr. Atta ur Rahman the author of Old World Empires: Cultures of Power has had a prominent record in Cambridge Overseas and Governance in Eurasia (New York: Routledge, School Certificate in 1958, and A’Levels in 1960 from 2014; South Asia edition by Oxford University Press), the Karachi Grammar School. In 1963, he received The Culture of Power and Governance of Pakistan, B.Sc (Hons.) in Chemistry, followed by M.Sc in Organic 1947-2008 (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2010, Chemistry from Karachi University. He received Reprinted: 2011, 2012, 2016), and an Inquiry into Commonwealth Scholarship in 1965 to study for Ph.D the Culture of Power of the Subcontinent. He has in Organic Chemistry under supervision of Dr. J. Harley written for the leading international academic journals Mason and received Ph.D at Kings College, Cambridge including The Journal of he Royal Asiatic Society, Asian in 1968. He was subsequently awarded a Doctorate Affairs, The Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern of Science by University of Cambridge in 1987 and Studies and many more. His book, Culture of Power and Doctorate of Education by Coventry University, UK, in Governance of Pakistan, was awarded the best non- 2007. fiction book of 2010 at the 2011 Karachi Literature Festival, and has also received the Higher Education PROF. SOHAIL INAYATULLAH is a Pakistani-born Commission of Pakistan award for best book in social Australian academic, futures studies researcher and a sciences, arts and humanities for 2010. His other book, visiting professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Old World Empires: Cultures of Power and Governance Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, Taiwan. in Eurasia, also received the HEC award for best book Mr. Inayatullah is most famous for introducing and in social sciences for 2013/14. Dr. Niaz is currently pioneering the futures technique of causal layered working on his next book, to be published by IB Tauris analysis, which uses a four-layered approach to bring titled, “State and Society in British India: Institutions about transformative change. He introduced the idea and the Imperial Legacy in South Asia”. Dr. Niaz is also in a widely cited paper for Futures. He also edited and the recipient of the Kodikara Award for 2013, authored wrote the introductory chapter for the Causal Layered a monograph on Understanding and Addressing the Analysis (CLA) Reader. He has also described the idea Administrative Aspect of the Civil-Military Imbalance in for a popular audience in an article for The Futurist and Pakistan. a TEDx talk. ASIF IFTIKHAR is currently Visiting Faculty at Lahore PROF. SALEEM H. ALI holds the Chair in Sustainable University of Management Sciences (LUMS). He did Resources Development at the University of his PhD in Islamic Studies from Institute of Islamic Queensland’s Sustainable Minerals Institute (SMI). Studies, McGill University, Canada. His dissertation Established in 2015 – the year the United Nations has topic relates primarily to study of modern epistemic committed to launching the Sustainable Development and hermeneutical challenges to traditionalisms and Goals – UQ will use the Chair’s mandate to focus Islamism in Pakistan; it partly relates to crosscurrents in research and training efforts towards reaching these the development of discourses on Islamic governance goals in the most ecologically and economically and jura belli (Laws of War or Jihad) in Pakistan. His efficient way. He is also Affiliate Professor of Politics publications exceed 400 pages of articles in various and International Studies at UQ where he is part of the journals. His article, “Murder, Manslaughter, and Conflict. Professor Ali retains an Adjunct Professorship Terrorism – All in the Name of Allah” (available widely in Environmental Studies at the University of Vermont’s online) was translated into a number of languages, cited Rubenstein School of Natural Resources, where he was in various books and articles, and used in a number of the founding director of the Institute for Environmental university courses.  ANTICIPATING 2027 POLICY NETWORK DR. SAMEHA RAHEEL QAZI is a politician who is an active member of Jamaat-e-Islami women wing, elected as member of the National Assembly in 2002. She has SENATOR MOHSIN LEGHARI attended the a PhD in Islamic Studies and was a staunch opponent University of Oklahoma. After graduation, he obtained of the women rights bill proposed by the Musharraf a Postgraduate Diploma in Applied Economics from the government. She is a profound writer in various University of the Punjab. Later, he acquired Certification magazines and used to write on topics like Islam, socio- in Global Financial Markets from the Securities Institute cultural issues, politics etc. of Australia. He has worked with the world’s leading Multinational Financial Information and Information ADVOCATE JAMILA JAHANOOR ASLAM is an Technology companies before being elected to the advocate of the High Court. She runs a law partnership Provincial Assembly. After two terms (2002-2007 and firm called Jamila Aslam Law Associates. She has a vast 2008-2012) in the Provincial Parliament, he has been and varied experience in the field of Civil, Criminal, elected as an independent senator from Punjab in Corporate, Family, Labour, Customs, Banking, Revenue, 2012. During his tenure in the provincial parliament, Services and various other laws. She is on the PTCL he was the Chairman of the House Committee on panel of lawyers and has attended to a number of cases Local Government and Rural Development (2003- assigned by PTCL at the lower and High Court level. She 2007) and member of the Public Accounts Committee is Vice President of the Autism Society of Pakistan, an (2008-2012). He is an alumnus of the National Defense alumnus of the National Defence University by token University, Islamabad and the Frederich Naumann of the fact that she was a participant of the National Foundation’s International Academy for Leadership Security Workshop 12. She also served as a prosecutor at the Theodor Heuss Academy in Gummersbach, for National Accountability Bureau. She was summoned Germany. by the High Court, Toronto as an expert on Muslim Family Law and the decision of the Honourable Court DR. MUSADIK MALIK is the Special Assistant to the was taken on the basis of her testimony and expert Prime Minister. Prior to this, he was previously serving opinion. The judgment propounded on the intricacies as PM’s Advisor for Water and Energy. He has extensive of the Sharia law on family matters. She has had the international experience in public policy with a focus singular honour of having being elevated to the bench on economic transformation, industrial development, of the Lahore High Court as a Justice. During her tenure labour reform, employment generation, education, and as Judge of the High Court, she was recommended healthcare. He has led significant projects in different by the Chief Justice of Pakistan to attend a Training sectors for the Sultanate of Oman, KSA, Bahrain and of Trainers, three-week course in Halifax, Ottawa and Government of Puerto Rico. Until recently, he was Toronto in Canada. She also had an appearing before a the Managing Director of a leading public sector Field General Court Martial - the first time in the history strategy consulting firm. He has served as an advisor of Pakistan Army that a female lawyer was given right of to government bodies in North America, Middle East audience before a Martial Law Court, and also the first and South Asia. Dr. Malik has previously served as the time in the legal history of the country that a DNA was Vice President and Regional Director for the Middle admitted as evidence - which she later won. East for Charles River Associates (CRA International) and also on senior positions at Arthur D. Little (USA) AMIR JAHANGIR, a strategic communication and and SRI International (USA). Dr. Malik finished his media professional, has been honored as a Young Post-Doctoral Fellowship at the University of Illinois – Global Leader by the World Economic Forum for his College of Medicine in Health Economics and Medical initiatives to improve the state of media and its co- Decision Making. He obtained Ph.D. and M.S. in relation with innovation, economic empowerment Healthcare Administration and Policy and an MBA from and development issues in South Asia. He is Founder the University of Illinois. He has taught and supported and CEO for MISHAL and has launched the flagship undergraduate and graduate courses in public policy program on media development by bringing press and management. He has widely presented his policy clubs & journalist’s associations on a common platform frameworks and recommendations at international to identify gaps in issues impacting the society. He conferences and in front of senate and cabinet has also worked on the national strategy to engage members across various countries. media to develop policy framework on ethics and its  ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB dissemination at grassroots level. He led the research people of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and then serving as and is the founder of the Media Credibility Index, Minister for Social Welfare and Women Development to improve narrative building mechanisms through in 2011. She is an Eisenhower Fellow. During her credibility and media ethics. He represents the Center Fellowship, she examined conflict resolution and for Global Competitiveness and Benchmarking climate change mitigation strategies for Kashmir. In Networks, World Economic Forum in Pakistan to 2015, she launched International Friends of Kashmir measure and develop Pakistan’s global rankings the at the European Parliament with Member of European various socio-economic and political indicators. He Parliament Raja Afzal. She established the first Drug was Advisor to the Stanford Center of Innovation and Addicts Rehabilitation Center at Muzaffarabad. In Communication, Stanford University on Journalism November 2016, she launched the Benazir Bhutto and Media (2009-2010). The Festival of Media Leadership Programme with the Harvard class of 2010, Valencia ranked him among the top 10 media 1973. She is considered to be one of the most thought personalities in the world. Jahangir has been the provoking leaders in the region on issues of conflict, founding CEO for CNBC Pakistan and SAMAA TV. women empowerment and social security networks. As CEO SAMAA TV, he put forth the concept of She is a frequent team-member at national and developing the proposed National Security Policy international forums. Economic Empowerment of the through an interactive television program by engaging Women of Kashmir has been one of her core passions; stakeholders within and outside Pakistan. Jahangir has she envisioned and created a special project to launch been part of the launch team of the Competitiveness a special loan scheme for women entrepreneurs. The Support Fund, the first joint initiative of the United initiative was launched in collaboration with the Azad States Government and the Government of Pakistan Jammu and Kashmir Bank. Through this initiative, to improve the state of competitiveness. Jahangir was initially 24 women were identified and an amount half a awarded the Global CEO Excellence Award 2011 for million rupees were disbursed. The scheme ensured the Media Development in Pakistan, Innovation in Health entrepreneurs to pay for the principal amount while the Journalism Award by the Government of Pakistan in interest was paid by the government. 2009 and the Health Media Award for Innovation in 2010. He was also bestowed with recognition for LT GEN (RETD.) NAEEM KHALID LODHI has being the most innovative strategist for inter-clusters served as Sectary of Defense for Pakistan. He was communication between media, communications and commissioned in the Army on 27 October 1974. He various economic growth indicators. He has received has a Bachelors in degree in Engineering (Civil). He multiple awards by various national and international is a graduate of Command and Staff College, Quetta multilateral entities for his contributions for media and National Defence University, Islamabad and development in Pakistan including UNICEF, WHO, Master in International Relations. He has served on Ministry of Health, Government of Pakistan. Jahangir various command, staff and instructional assignments is a frequent speaker at academic institutions like in his career in the Army including the important Harvard University, Stanford University and academic appointments of Directing Staff at National Defence institutions across Pakistan and various international College (now National Defence University) Islamabad, forums along with the World Bank and various regional Commander Corps Engineers, Director General and annual meetings arranged by the World Economic Engineering Directorate, Director General Staff Forum from time to time. Duties Directorate, General Officer Commanding Bahawalpur, General Headquarters Rawalpindi and SYED ALI RAZA ABIDI is a Pakistani politician, and Corps Commander Bahawalpur. In recognition of his parliamentarian. He was elected as member of National commendable services, he has been conferred the Assembly on a ticket of Muttahida Qaumi Movement award of Hilal-e-Imtiaz (Military). from NA-251 (Karachi) in Pakistani general elections, 2013. BARRISTER SENATOR NAWABZADA SAIFULLAH MAGSI is a member of the Senate of FARZANA YAQOOB represents the next generation Pakistan. He was elected as the youngest Senator of of leaders from South Asia. Being a youth leader, social Pakistan at the age of 30 in March 2012. He is affiliated activist & entrepreneur from Azad Jammu & Kashmir, with the Pakistan People’s Party and hails from an she believes in humanity and striving for justice. She established political background. Senator Magsi went strived to justify her belief after winning the trust of on to pursue a law degree and graduated from the  ANTICIPATING 2027 prestigious University College London with honors. since 2011 and was elected for the first time in 2013 Senator Magsi was called to the Bar from Lincoln’s Inn elections from PML. He’s held the position of Chairman in 2005. He has been involved in politics quite soon Youth Caucus Punjab Assembly. Youth Caucus is an after finishing education. He was a member of the advocacy group of 80 plus parliamentarians below Cabinet in the government of Balochistan in 2007 and the age of 40 from all parties including independents. was Minister for Planning and Development, Law and The main focus of Youth Caucus is to highlight issues Justice, Inter-Provincial Coordination and Department pertaining to the youth of Punjab. Furthermore, Vickas of Prosecution. Senator Magsi has also remained a is a member of the provincial task force on SDGs. He is member on the board of the Privatization Commission. passionate about entrepreneurship development among He is a member of important Standing Committees the youth of the country and is a staunch believer of the of the Senate including Water and Power, Law and concept that the youth bulge of coming years could be Justice, Cabinet Division, Planning and Development turned into an opportunity for progress rather than a and others; and in this capacity, he has furthered causes burden. such as clean and renewable energy, reforming civil services and ensuring primary and essential service IRUM AZEEM FAROOQUE is a Member Provincial delivery by the government and state to its citizens. Assembly, Sindh and she has played the role of an Senator Magsi was a member of the Law Committee active legislator in the Assembly and media. She was when it passed ground-breaking legislation on rape instrumental in passing the Child Marriage Restraint and honor killing and pushed for its passage through Act 2013 Bill, and has helped pass various resolutions Parliament which was finally done in 2016. such as Attack on our Soldiers Northwest by the TTP, Stop the Rise of Street Children in Sindh, Rights of FAWAD CHAUDHRY is a lawyer by profession and the Home-Based Workers and many more. She has politician by passion. He joined the media around organized pre-budget sessions with the concerned three years ago but has emerged as a powerful liberal departments for the Party’s shadow budget. She is also voice on our television screens. Fawad hosts a prime- the President of an NGO, Voice of the Civil Society, time show Khabar Kay Peechay on Neo TV. Chaudhry which brought together volunteers for welfare and belongs to a prominent political family of the Punjab social services. She completed her Bachelors in Political – his grandfather and other family members have Science from P.E.C.H.S College for Women, Karachi. occupied various important positions in the past. Fawad has been an adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan BUZAIR MARRI is currently serving as the and is now a Spokesperson of the Pakistan Tehreek-e- District Chairman of Kohlu. He has studied from Insaf (PTI). the Beaconhouse School System and the British International School Karachi. SARDAR VICKAS HASAN MOKAL is a Member of the Provincial Assembly of Punjab. He was elected in SHAZIA ISMAT ZAIDI is an educationalist, a 2013 general elections from District Kasur. Vickas has social entrepreneur and a philanthropist. She has a Master’s degree in Economics and has an extensive over twenty five years of progressive experience in experience in social development sector of Pakistan. the education and social sector. Having held senior His professional experience includes a decade with positions, she has the requisite qualifications in SMEDA (Small & Medium Enterprise Development Training, Curriculum Development, Quality Assurance, Authority, Ministry of Industries & Production). Monitoring and Evaluation, School Management, SMEDAs core objective is to provide management Human Resource Development and Teaching. During assistance and consultancy to SMEs of Pakistan. Vickas her academic endeavour she formulated staffing has also worked in AHAN (Aik Hunar Aik Nagar) as head strategies, implementing plans and programs to identify of product development and international linkages. talent within and outside the school for positions AHAN worked with artisans, craftsmen and women of responsibility along with proposing progressive across Pakistan and provided them with opportunities and proactive compensation and benefits programs to market their products in national and international to provide motivation, incentives and rewards for markets. As Director Marketing for EPE Entrepreneurs, effective performance. Shazia’s vast academic Performa a USAID funded program, it was a continuation of the particularly with the Bloomfield Hall Schools has work being undertaken in collaboration with AHAN enabled her to critically analyses the policies underlying and local artisans. Vickas has joined active politics the design and implementation of national education  ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB plans and programmes in critically assessing gaps in SHAHZAD NAWAZ is a Pakistani filmmaker, actor, policy design of national curriculum, management singer, advertiser and graphic designer who started capacity and development co-operation. In addition to his career as an advisor to many news agencies examining the contextual factors for implications for and media publications such as Geo TV, Pakistan education, Shazia has developed her worth within the Television Corporation, ARY, Dunya News and Jang ambit of Security Paradigm in identifying any ongoing Group of Newspapers. He also served as CEO of Nai development initiatives on the National Security Baat Media Network for a year. He has worked as front that may alter political dynamics with regards to a graphic designer for a number of organizations - maintaining law & order in the country. She is currently designing their logos - including of Pakistan Television the alumni of National Security Workshop at the Corporation. Mr. Nawaz’s claim to fame came with the National Defense University and now working as course film Chambaili that he wrote and produced, which was coordinator (NSW 12) with all alumni of NSW (AAN). the first political film of the country, earning him critical She has also attended the National Media Workshop appraisal and a nomination of the ARY Film Award for 4 at the same university. She is currently working as Best Film as a producer. Director and a partner at Bloomfield Hall Schools. She is also a member of the Bloomfield Hall Executive LT GEN (RETD.) AGHA FAROOQ is a security, and Academic Board. She has a major contribution in military and public diplomacy practitioner with sharp developing course books and curriculum at Bloomfield focus on contemporary conflict dynamics including Hall Publications. She is an expert on setting up new social, public, societal and ideological behaviors branches and team building. She remained engaged in affecting national, regional as well as international Teachers/Heads training programs along with leading peace, conflict and stability. He is a graduate of the quality assurance team for the school. She has been Command & Staff College Quetta, National Defence an active participant with vast exposure at national as University Islamabad, and US Army War College well as international seminars, conferences and training Pennsylvania, USA. He holds two Master’s degrees; workshops. She is also the founder of Crescent Lions a Master’s in Strategic Studies and another in War Club Islamabad where she served as the President. and Defence Studies. His special assignments in the Due to the immense success of the club she was also past include: President National Defence University elected as zonal head of Lions Club International. She Pakistan, Senior Consultant United Nations Office for is a member of the executive committee of SOS Village Drug and Crime in Pakistan, Member Higher Education Multan and founding member of the SOS School in Commission of Pakistan, Member technical committee Multan. She is the trustee and Secretary General of National Action Plan Committee for Counter Terrorism, Mausikaar Welfare Trust (an organization working to India-Pakistan Mil to Mil track 2 dialogue, US-Pakistan preserve and promote heritage music along with the Strategic Dialogue, Senior Vice President – Centre for welfare of the artists). Shazia also advises the Asia Pakistan & Gulf Studies, Chief of Staff and Operations Institute of Public Policy as their Director Knowledge for Federal Relief Commission for Earthquake October Development, to promote education collaboration 2005, Director General Earthquake Reconstruction & in the Asia region. Shazia has recently completed her Rehabilitation Authority, Prime Minister Secretariat. His Master’s Degree in International Relations from Quaid- areas of interests and contributions are: international i-Azam University Islamabad. In addition to these relations, comprehensive national security and policy, leadership roles, Shazia is called on to speak around public and military diplomacy, developing strategic the globe on topics critical to issues of education, leadership and skill-based education programmes, media and economic development on social sector. skill-competency based quality education systems, In regards to that, Shazia has been part of INSEAD’s strategic leadership and management, country risk and training in Singapore along with her presence in the LET need analysis, perception management & perceptual conference in Vienna, Austria. In May 2017, she has mapping, project and programs development, counter- been selected as Country Capital Chair of the ‘Global terrorism & counter-insurgency, soft power and hard Dignity’, an initiative started by the Crown Prince of power dynamics, disaster Response, crisis management Norway to promote the value of education and dignity and contingency planning. around the globe.  ANTICIPATING 2027 NATIONWIDE CONTRIBUTION FOR THE Dr Sameha Raheel Qazi INAUGURAL REPORT OF THE PAKISTAN Senator Mohsin Leghari STATE OF FUTURE INDEX Dr. Musadik Malik Lt-Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi The Foresight Lab Team greatly appreciates the insights, Farzana Yaqoob reviews and comments received from the participants. Syed Nadeem Bukhari We would like to thank each one for their time and their Brigadier Babar Ghani invaluable contribution: Major General Khalil Dar Abdul Majid Qureshi Prof. Dr. Moazzam Ali Khan Farhan Ansari Dr. Seeme Mallick Humayoun Shuja Prof. Dr. Abid Hasnain Shams ul Deen Dr. Mansoor Shaukat Khan Mubarak Zeb Khan Dr. Saqlain Raza Almas Haider Naqvi Dr. Amna Nazeer Zahid Gishkori Dr. Gulfam Khan Khalid Baghoor Shabir Ahmed Wahgra Dr. Karamat Ali Tanzeela Mazhar Dr. Shahwali Khan Ameer Abbas Gulrukh Mehboob Brigadier Tahir Mehmood Huda Munawar Fawad Khurshid Najm ul Saher Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema Dr. Shabana Fayyaz Naufil Shahrukh Dr. Ghazala Rafique Khabir Kamran Dr. Muhammad Nawaz Tauqir Ahmed Dr. Awais Adnan Major (Retd) Iqbal Aslam Dr. Sajid Anwar Muhammad Ali Shahid Dr. Adnan Amin Osman Asghar Khan Dr. Saad Ahmed Khan Shahzad Nawaz Dr. Arsalan Khan Dr. Shimail Daud Dr. Aadil Nakhoda Syed Ali Abbas Zaidi Dr. Muhammad Umer Hayat Brigadier (Retd) Kamran Zia Dr. Munawar Sabir Maj-Gen (Retd) Tahir Habib Syed Tanvir Jafari Advocate Jamila Jahanoor Rabia Dadabhoy Advocate Ammar Jadoon Dr. Ilhan Niaz Advocate Mariam Jafri Prof. Dr. Nasir Salman Zaara Basharat Muttaqi Armaan Malik Brigadier Zubair Hashmi Prof. Dr. Nabeel Ahmed Zubari Anmol Arshad Gul Dad Hooriya Khan Asma Khalid Usama Shaukat Zafarullah Muhammad Saud Sajid Dr. Abdul Malik Mahnoor Riaz Asad Munir Salman Abdul Nasir Tasawar Baig Ahmad Shah Masood Awais Raoof Ehtisham Sohail Ghayour Abbas Sajid Qayyum Saranjam Baig Kiran Hafeez Dr. Saqib Riaz Emad Arshad Dr. Faisal Iradat Faisal Noman Dr. Arshad Zia Shah Hassan Khan Dr. Muhammad Akbar Asim Rehan Syed Ali Raza Abidi Ovais Mushtaq  ABOUT FORESIGHT LAB Muhammad Mounas Ibrahim Sanaullah Brigadier (Retd) Amir Yaqub Jumana Ali Zoya Zulfiqar Khabir Kamran Adeen Saeed Maham Ikram Ahmed Riz Maryam Raheel Alishba Asif Moniba Mehboob Arsheel Obaid Nimra Iftikhar Umar Sahi Rakae Jamil Farheen Anjum Rida Khan Farzana Yaqoob Ruth Naymat Gill Hurrain Jehanger Sadiya Aziz Kaneez Fatima Raheel Yousaf Khurram Aziz Fani Saral Gilani Maheer Irshad Sheikh Sadiq Momna Saeed Tahi Najafi Nadia Saleem Tehreem Munir Noornisha Kazi Umer Safeer Rahima Rehmat Ummatul Batool Rameen Ahmed Waqas Ashraf Rutaba Tariq Warda Khan Shumaila Kousar Zainab Ahmed Abeera Rajper Zarish Fatima Anusha Khattack Zeeshan Zaigham Dr. Ali Sajid Imami Zoya Anwer Eesha Assad Zoya Zulfiqar Hasaan Masood FORESIGHT LAB TEAM Hasan Saeed Projects Coordinator, AGAHI Pakistan Puruesh Chaudhary Farukh Mushtaq Founder and President, AGAHI Pakistan Manager Corporate Projects Team, Interactive Group of Companies Shahid Mahmud CEO and Chairman, Interactive Group of Companies Harris Atta Creative Manager, Eikon7 Pakistan Azfar Anwar Jahangir Management Coordinator, AGAHI Pakistan Faisal Abbas Executive - Web Development, Eikon7 Pakistan Saad Liaquat Kiani Head of Product and Solution Development, Cdre Muhammad Azhar Interactive Group of Companies Pakistan Manager Field Operations, AGAHI Pakistan Muhammad Musa Khan Jerome C. Glenn Account Executive, Eikon7 Pakistan CEO, The Millennium Project Muhammad Arsalan Sajid Theodore J. Gordon Research Coordinator, AGAHI Pakistan Senior Fellow, The Millennium Project ANTICIPATING 2027