Don't Oversell ‘Overspill’: Afghanistan and Emerging Conflicts in Central Asia

Azad Garibov, "Central Asia-Afghanistan Security Nexus: Post-2014 Perspectives", Afghanistan's Security in 2014: Domestic, Regional and International Dimensions, Caucasus International, Vol. 3 • No: 3 • Autumn 2013, http://cijournal.az/post/caucasus-international-vol-3-no-3-autumn-2013

Journal of Central Asian Studies, 2025

In the wake of the Islamic Emirate's reestablishment in 2021, Afghanistan has encountered profound political unrest, heightened security issues, and a downturn in its economy. While these complications are primarily internal, their repercussions extend into Central Asia. This article examines Afghanistan's contemporary state through the lens of its neighboring Central Asian nations, including Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. It explores the perceived threats and emerging opportunities for strengthening economic and diplomatic relations, drawing on regional policy analyses, strategic documents, and security evaluations. The study argues that Afghanistan's geopolitical relevance to Central Asia has an underlying current, highlighting the necessity for a nuanced policy approach that balances risk management with proactive collaboration.

The changing strategic realities after the gradual international pullout from Afghanistan will require an entirely new set of approach for the sustainability of non-extremist governance and stability of social fabric. Amid, such an unpredictable future of war-game stage of Central and South Asia, Russia is one of potential players that can come forward to discuss new matrix of long-term building of state structure in Afghanistan. This requires an out of traditional box of security engagement paradigm and demands an integrated approach for the broader re-coordination of diversified interests.

ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or “dingwei”. Russia’s Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China’s dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three.

Carleton University

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan after the U.S. and NATO's withdrawal in August 2021 has shifted regional and global security dynamics. Afghanistan, a historical crossroads, is now a focal point of geopolitical competition. The power vacuum left by the U.S. and its allies has been filled by regional actors like Russia, China, and Central Asia, each engaging with the Taliban based on strategic, economic, and security priorities. For Russia, the Taliban’s resurgence raises concerns about Central Asia and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). China’s focus is economic, with Afghanistan as a key part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a source of rare minerals. Still, it also worries about the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Central Asian countries sharing borders with Afghanistan face more direct challenges. Uzbekistan values Afghanistan for regional connectivity, while Turkmenistan focuses on energy projects like the TAPI gas pipeline. Tajikistan has security concerns, especially regarding its Tajik population, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan engage through security groups like CSTO despite not sharing borders. Globally, the Taliban's return threatens stability, human rights, and anti-terrorism efforts. For Canada, Afghanistan's instability poses risks to regional allies and global security, particularly with the potential resurgence of terrorism. The Taliban’s restrictive policies undermine decades of international human rights efforts. This memo examines the interactions of Russia, China, and Central Asia with the Taliban and offers recommendations for Canada on security, humanitarian, and economic issues in Afghanistan.

After the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan in 2014, the issue of regional security became the primary debate for Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Central Asian countries have common cultural, political and historical ties and they are also neighbours with Afghanistan. Therefore, if there are any problems in the security issues in Afghanistan, it has a negative impact on the Central Asian region. The CA countries have their own approach towards resolving the political, economic and security issues in Afghanistan. They are developing cooperation with Afghanistan in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CENTO). In addition, these countries also have bilateral relations in the economic and political sphere with Afghanistan. The question this chapter seeks to answer is focused on security. The main purpose is to examine the role and approach of the Central Asian countries in Afghanistan‘s transformation into a stable country

The Afghanistan-Central Asia relationship:

Peter Lang , 2018

This chapter discusses the security threats in Central Asia and the activities of international and regional structures in solving them. After presenting these security issues in Central Asia, it describes the participation and activities of Central Asian states in regional organisations. It then discusses the activities and effectiveness of the main international organisations in the central Asian security spheres and analyses cooperation or noncooperation among three such main organisations as the CSTO, the SCO and the NATO. Central Asia consists of five post-soviet states with a population of over 65 million inhabitants, a geopolitically important region situated between Russia, China, the EU and the rest of Asia, that possesses vast energy resources. Central Asia shares a long border with Afghanistan of 2400 km. There exist several security threats in this region, most of them stemming from Afghanistan. The main security issue is terrorism, extremism and religious radicalisation. Citizens of Central Asia were found in the ranks of ISIS and terrorist attacks organised in the territories of Central Asia. More youth are getting radicalised. In the recent five years, all Central Asian countries have strived to control the activities of religious organisations and spiritual life of citizens. International terrorist/extremist organisations are active in Central Asian states: Hizb-ut Tahrir, Jaishul Mahdi, ISIS, the