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The Missionary Roots of Liberal Democracy

Profile image of Robert D WoodberryRobert D Woodberry
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000093
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Abstract

This article demonstrates historically and statistically that conversionary Protestants (CPs) heavily influenced the rise and spread of stable democracy around the world. It argues that CPs were a crucial catalyst initiating the development and spread of religious liberty, mass education, mass printing, newspapers, voluntary organizations, and colonial reforms, thereby creating the conditions that made stable democracy more likely. Statistically, the historic prevalence of Protestant missionaries explains about half the variation in democracy in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Oceania and removes the impact of most variables that dominate current statistical research about democracy. The association between Protestant missions and democracy is consistent in different continents and subsamples, and it is robust to more than 50 controls and to instrumental variable analyses.

Figures (7)

Catholic Missionaries Historical Summary and Foundations for Statistical Models
Catholic Missionaries Historical Summary and Foundations for Statistical Models
TABLE 1. Descriptive Statistics for Key Variables valuable colonies from Catholic colonizers, then both colonial and mission coefficients could be biased. Thus I also measure “Protestant” Colonizer Took Colony from “Catholics.” member instead of Major Oil Producer as a measure of oil wealth’s influence on democracy. Literate Culture before Missionary Contact indicates countries that had written languages prior to missionary contact. These variables and eleven additional geoclimatic controls are from Woodberry (2004c) and Woodberry et al. (2010). “Settler” Mortality Rate data are from Ace- moglu, Johnson, and Robinson (AJR 2001), Life Ex- pectancy in 1940 from Acemoglu and Johnson (2007), and Urbanization in 1500, and Population Density in 1500 from AJR (2002).
TABLE 1. Descriptive Statistics for Key Variables valuable colonies from Catholic colonizers, then both colonial and mission coefficients could be biased. Thus I also measure “Protestant” Colonizer Took Colony from “Catholics.” member instead of Major Oil Producer as a measure of oil wealth’s influence on democracy. Literate Culture before Missionary Contact indicates countries that had written languages prior to missionary contact. These variables and eleven additional geoclimatic controls are from Woodberry (2004c) and Woodberry et al. (2010). “Settler” Mortality Rate data are from Ace- moglu, Johnson, and Robinson (AJR 2001), Life Ex- pectancy in 1940 from Acemoglu and Johnson (2007), and Urbanization in 1500, and Population Density in 1500 from AJR (2002).
+<.1,* <.05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Note: Regressions also control for Year of 1st Democracy Data and Post-1976 Democracy Data Only. Coefficients, standard errors and R? from robust regression (rreg in Stata), Adjusted R? from OLS. TABLE 2. Robust Regression Predicting Democracy in “Non-Western” Societies: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-1994
+<.1,* <.05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Note: Regressions also control for Year of 1st Democracy Data and Post-1976 Democracy Data Only. Coefficients, standard errors and R? from robust regression (rreg in Stata), Adjusted R? from OLS. TABLE 2. Robust Regression Predicting Democracy in “Non-Western” Societies: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-1994
+<.1,* <.05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. missionaries or colonizers create a spurious association between missions and democracy. Presumably, Euro- peans more quickly colonized countries they consid- ered valuable, and missionaries more quickly entered countries they considered to be inviting. To the extent that they chose more favorable places, variables related to the length of colonization or missions may be biased. Furthermore, Catholic colonizers restricted Protes- tant missionaries, channeling Protestants to Protestant colonies. Because Protestant colonization developed after Catholic colonization, Protestant countries ei- ther colonized areas that Catholic countries ignored (e.g., North America and parts of Africa and Oceania) or invaded Catholic colonies. Because the Protestant British and Dutch developed better navies than the Catholic Spanish, Portuguese, French, Belgians, or Ital- ians, Protestant colonizers could usually take the terri- tories they considered most valuable. If so, Protestant missionaries might have flowed to already advantaged areas. Unless we control for this selection process, we may credit either Protestant missionaries or Protestant colonizers for creating preexisting conditions.
+<.1,* <.05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. missionaries or colonizers create a spurious association between missions and democracy. Presumably, Euro- peans more quickly colonized countries they consid- ered valuable, and missionaries more quickly entered countries they considered to be inviting. To the extent that they chose more favorable places, variables related to the length of colonization or missions may be biased. Furthermore, Catholic colonizers restricted Protes- tant missionaries, channeling Protestants to Protestant colonies. Because Protestant colonization developed after Catholic colonization, Protestant countries ei- ther colonized areas that Catholic countries ignored (e.g., North America and parts of Africa and Oceania) or invaded Catholic colonies. Because the Protestant British and Dutch developed better navies than the Catholic Spanish, Portuguese, French, Belgians, or Ital- ians, Protestant colonizers could usually take the terri- tories they considered most valuable. If so, Protestant missionaries might have flowed to already advantaged areas. Unless we control for this selection process, we may credit either Protestant missionaries or Protestant colonizers for creating preexisting conditions.
TABLE 4. Robust Regression Predicting Democracy in “Non-West”: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-1994 <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Coefficients and standard errors from robust regression (rreg in Stata) “Dutch colony” dropped because one case (Indonesia) insufficient for robust regression. “Percent Evangelized by 1900” dropped because of collinearity.
TABLE 4. Robust Regression Predicting Democracy in “Non-West”: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-1994 <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Coefficients and standard errors from robust regression (rreg in Stata) “Dutch colony” dropped because one case (Indonesia) insufficient for robust regression. “Percent Evangelized by 1900” dropped because of collinearity.
+ <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Also controls for year GDP data first available. © Also controls for year education data first available. ° Control for Dutch Colonialism dropped due to insufficient N
+ <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown in table to save space. Also controls for year GDP data first available. © Also controls for year education data first available. ° Control for Dutch Colonialism dropped due to insufficient N
TABLE 6. LIML Instrumental Variable Regression with Robust VCE Predicting Democracy in “Non-Western” Societies: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-94 + <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown. Also controls “Year of 1st Democracy Data” and “Post-1976 Democracy Data Only.” Results consistent without VCE (robust) and with 2SLS and GMM.
TABLE 6. LIML Instrumental Variable Regression with Robust VCE Predicting Democracy in “Non-Western” Societies: Mean Level of Democracy from 1950-94 + <.1,* < .05, ** < .01, *** < .001; two-tailed test. Constant not shown. Also controls “Year of 1st Democracy Data” and “Post-1976 Democracy Data Only.” Results consistent without VCE (robust) and with 2SLS and GMM.

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