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Stehr, Nico, Exceptional circumstances Does climate change trump democracy?

2016
Nico Stehr
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N AT I O N A L AC A D E M I E S O F S C I E N C E S, E N G I N E E R I N G, A N D M E D I C I N E T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F T E XA S AT DA L L A S A R I ZO N A S TAT E U N I V E R S I T Y W I N T E R 2016 IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Climate and Energy: The Outliers The wisdom of experience In defense of democracy The nuclear option Venture investment in fusion Better mental health data A schizophrenia gene? Citizen engineers USA $12.00 / CAN $13.00 Rep. Lamar Smith on research accountability Global R&D for Latin America How safe are e-cigarettes? N I CO S T E H R Exceptional Circumstances Does Climate Change Trump Democracy? T Researchers who lirt with the idea that more authoritarian governance would help us address global warming are badly mistaken. What’s really needed is more democracy. he threats to democracy in the modern era are many. Not least is the risk posed by the widespread feeling among diferent segments of the public in contempo- rary democracies that no one from the political class is listening. Such discontent reaches from the Tea Party in the United States and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the United Kingdom to the Alterna- tive for Germany (AfD) Party in Germany and the National Front in France. But worryingly, similar sentiments can be found in the scientiic community. he robustness of the consensus in the science community about human-caused climate change has in recent years not only increased in strength, but a number of current studies point to far more dramatic and long-lasting consequences of global warming than previously thought. Moreover, it is highly likely that the sophistication and depth of our knowledge about global and regional climates will substantially increase in the next couple of decades. Under such circumstances, how is it possible, many scientists ask, that such evidence does not motivate political action and behavior change in all societies around the world? Why are we waiting? WINTER 2016 37 Sophie Guerrive for Captain Future, Camping Sauvage, 2015. La Gaîté Lyrique, a modern art and music center in Paris, ofered programs exploring climate and ecological issues during COP21 that were suitable for all ages. Captain Future, its program for children, explored themes of camping and nature through concerts, lectures, screenings, and workshops. La Gaîté Lyrique served as the headquarters for ArtCOP21. he well-known climate researcher James Hansen, state of lethargy, “nothing but blood, toil, tears, and who has been publicly sounding the alarm on sweat” is urgently needed. global warming since his inluential 1988 testimony Dale Jamieson, professor of environmental before the U.S. Congress, summarized the general studies, philosophy, and law at New York University frustration when he asserted in 2007 that “the and author of Reason in a Dark Time (2014), democratic process does not work.” In his 2009 book, exempliies such a skeptical view about the obstacles he Vanishing Face of Gaia, James Lovelock, another faced by our present political order in coping with long-time scientiic voice of warning, compares the consequences of global warming. He warns climate change to war, emphasizing that we need that climate change presents us “with the largest to abandon democracy to meet the challenges of collective action problem that humanity has ever climate change head on. To pull the world out of its faced, [but] evolution did not design us to deal with 38 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CLIMATE POLITICS such problems, and we have not designed political might need to be suppressed in light of profound institutions that are conducive to solving them.” He future environmental changes has not received much adds: “Sadly, it is not entirely clear that democracy is systematic attention in social science, politics, or the up to the challenge of climate change.” media. I do not disagree with Jamieson about the I will bring this disenchantment into the spotlight. enormous challenge global warming likely ofers. But I will insist that there is no contradiction between I do disagree strongly about the implicit medicine, democratic governance and scientiic knowledge. the rationale for which is beginning to come Rather than lamenting the inconvenience of from scholars in diverse ields. he historian Eric democratic governance, the need is to enhance Hobsbawm’s long-time skepticism toward democracy democracy, not despite, but especially in light of, the extends in his 2008 book, Globalisation, Democracy, massive challenges of a changing climate. We need and Terrorism, to strong doubts about the efec- to recognize our changing climate as an issue of tiveness of democratic states in solving complex political governance and not as an environmental or global problems such as global warming. And Nobel economic issue. Laureate Daniel Kahneman says: “the bottom line is that I’m extremely skeptical that we can cope The rise of exceptional circumstances with climate change. To mobilize people, this has to In the past, warlike conditions and major disas- become an emotional issue. It has to have immediacy ters typically were seen to justify the abolition of and salience. A distant, abstract, and disputed threat democratic liberties, if only temporarily. he term just doesn’t have the necessary characteristics for “exceptional circumstances” refers to conditions seriously mobilizing public opinion.” oten invoked to grant governments additional Al Gore’s famous “inconvenient truth” begins powers to avert or tackle unforeseen but threatening now to imply the complements of an “inconvenient political, economic, or environmental problems. he democracy” due to an “inconvenient mind,” that present appeal to exceptional circumstances echoes is, the cognitive inability of ordinary citizens to this sentiment, demanding the elevation of a single incorporate longer-term transformation demanded socio-political purpose—carbon emissions reduc- by climate change into their thinking and decision tions—to ultimate political supremacy. making, and “inconvenient social institutions” that We are confronted with an entirely novel situ- systematically ignore the future. ation: Anthropogenic climate change is locked in. Climate scientists, social scientists concerned Most of the scientiic discourse has been devoted to with climate change, and the media refer to a future establishing the phenomenon. hat issue has been of “exceptional circumstances.” However, the same settled. What is not settled in science is a range of groups also assert that no one is listening to their important questions such as the speed of warming diagnosis of potential incomparable dangers. An or the nature of the consequences of climate change elite of climate scientists believes they are reading the on various signiicant attributes of human existence evidence that others fail to acknowledge and know or, perhaps most importantly, what actually must be truths that others lack the courage to fully confront. done, and how it can be done. In light of the extraordinary dangers to human Except for reference to singular historical events civilization posed by climate change, democracy such as war, there are no large-scale human expe- quickly becomes in their eyes an inconvenient form riences, or models of success, to which the claims of governing. of the climate science community can appeal as a Although the context is new, there is nothing precedent for the course it is considering. Governing new, as Cambridge University political scientist the consequences of climate change refers to a time David Runciman has documented, “about this scale and to societal transformations that are clearly outburst of disgust with the workings of democracy. beyond the ability of human imagination and current Nor is it distinctly American. Europeans (with the political institutions to cope with. possible exception of [contemporary] Germans) are hus do Lovelock, Hobsbawm, and others appeal just as disenchanted with their elected politicians. to extraordinary circumstances or a warlike footing Lamenting the failings of democracy is a permanent that necessitates the suspension of freedoms and feature of democratic life, one that persists through the political ascent of climate scientists. A growing governmental crises and successes alike.” Surpris- chorus of critical voices within the scientiic ingly, however, scientists’ disenchantment with community, advocacy world, and the media seems democracy and the implication that political liberties certain that democratic societies are unable to WINTER 2016 39 slowness and inlexibility of democratic institutions and expressed their preference for authoritarian solu- tions. Dennis Meadows, the co-author of the original Limits to Growth, reiterated some 40 years later his strong suspicion about the barrier to needed action and solutions in the face of growing environmental threats to our civilization by virtue of the “slowness” and “short-sightedness of governance.“ he implication of the position is that democratic governance of society must be subordinated to the defeat of the exceptional circumstances. he single purpose of defeating the exceptional circumstances legitimizes the suspension of political rights and Rachel Whiteread, Embankment, 2005. liberties. But for how long can one defer liberties? At least in the case of war, in democratic societies the Rachel Whiteread’s Embankment installation was a labyrinth-like structure exhibited at the Tate answer is that, in economist Friedrich Hayek’s words, Modern’s Turbine Hall in 2005. The work was made “it is sensible temporarily to sacriice freedom in from 14,000 casts of the insides of boxes, stacked to order to make it more secure in the future.” However, occupy the monumental space. Photographs of the is any massive absorption of powers in the hand of installation toured with Cape Farewell’s Art & Climate the state and its representatives easily reversible? And, Change exhibition from 2006 to 2010. Photograph are the potential consequences of climate change the by Sjoerd ten Kate. equivalent of (abrupt) warlike conditions? How can one pinpoint the onset of exceptional circumstances? Or, perhaps even more troubling, their endpoint? he deiciencies of, and the short-term as well as efectively and speedily attack global environmental long-term challenges faced by, democratic govern- problems. he American political theorist and ments are many and go far beyond the problem of historian Timothy Mitchell, who has written some climate change and its societal consequences. What exceptional empirically based relections on what he alternatives do these impatient scholars have in mind? calls “carbon democracy,” is equally pessimistic when Ater all, authoritarian and totalitarian governments he states, “faced with the threats of oil depletion and do not have a record of environmental accomplish- catastrophic climate change, the democratic machin- ments; nations that have followed the path of “author- eries that emerged to govern the age of carbon itarian modernization” such as China and Russia energy seem to be unable to address the processes cannot claim to have a better record, despite the high that may end it.” status of scientists and engineers in their societies. And the alternative? We are let with the central Nonetheless, the disenchantment with democracies state, guided by scientists, as the source of security continues to be advanced, perhaps becoming even in the face of radical risk. Only an appeal to extraor- more vocal as entrenched climate policy regimes such dinary circumstances—that is, to a threat to the very as the United Nations Framework Convention fail existence of humankind—“might be able to give to live up to their promise and as one ater another capacity and . . . energy back to a failing or hampered international conference on climate change fails to [political] will,” the French political scientist Pierre achieve the goals of a substantial global reduction of Rosanvallon argues. greenhouse gas emissions. But how does one govern well under exceptional circumstances? Doing so is allied to two assertions: The erosion of democracy that an “inconvenient mind” justiies imposing one’s he argument about upcoming exceptional circum- (superior) ideas on citizens and that “inconvenient stances due to climate change and the concomitant social institutions” justify a strong state in the form implication of an inconvenient democracy derives its of a command society. intellectual sustenance from a range of considerations: Here one may note how history repeats itself. In a deep-seated pessimism about the psychological the 1970s, a similar kind of skepticism arose around make-up of human beings; the speciic temporality— the question of limits to growth and the survival of that is, short-term perspective—of human thought; humankind. Scientists warned about the essential the failure to mobilize populations to support the 40 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CLIMATE POLITICS cause of efective climate policies; the inability of racies “prioritize immediate over future experiences, government, given constitutional constraints, to simplicity over complexity, gut instinct over science.” attend to long-term goals; the fragility of political he discussion in the climate science and policy order, which depends for survival on mobilizing community about the shortcomings of democratic consensus around incremental change; the inlu- governance resonates, at least supericially, with ence of vested interests on the political agendas of assessments coming from the social sciences of the the day; the widespread social addiction to fossil present and future state of democracy, which have fuel; and last but not least, the climate science reached similar discouraging conclusions about the community’s sense that its message of evidence and eicacy of democratic governance in many nations. rationality is not stimulating action. So, for example, political scientist and former UK he mass of citizens, it seems, simply cannot be Member of Parliament David Marquand sees “a won over to endorse and follow the course of policy hollowing out of citizenship; the marketization of the options that scientists support. he large majority public sector; the soul-destroying targets and audits of citizens are basically inclined to act irrationally; that go with it; the denigration of professionalism and people just do not appear to be able to comprehend the professional ethic; and the erosion of public trust.” what is good for them. As the German climate Many social science observers see contemporary scientist Hans Joachim Schellnhuber complains, democracy—whether by design of self-interested “… my own experience and everyday knowledge actors such as large corporations, or as an unintended illustrate that comfort and ignorance are the biggest outcome of structural economic, political, and moral laws of human character. his is a potentially changes—as tending toward increasingly autocratic deadly mix.” Here Schellnhuber rehabilitates a forms of governance. sentiment from Immanuel Kant’s 1784 essay “What But social scientists and climate scientists diverge is Enlightenment?” in which Kant notes: “Laziness profoundly in their analyses of the necessary remedy. and cowardice are the reasons why such a large Social scientists such as political historian Rosanvallon proportion of men, even when nature has long and sociologist Colin Crouch see the need to restore freed them from external guidance, gladly remain the vitality of the core function of democracy through immature all their lives.” more active participation of large numbers of citizens Not just citizens, but their democratically elected in shaping the agenda of public life. Climate scientists politicians, seem unlikely to implement satisfactory and others whose chief concern is climate change policy: activist climate scientists, journalists, and seem instead to believe democratic governance to be many other observers agree that the recent climate inherently incapable of coping efectively with large- summits in Copenhagen, Cancun, Durban, and scale environmental problems. From this perspective, Warsaw (and perhaps now Paris) were failures. he the very abolition of democracy would be a virtue summits did not result in a new global agreement and the establishment, for example, of “benevolent to cope with the emissions of greenhouse gases. despotism” would be desirable. In some of the images Existing agreements seem to have no impact. of “post-democracy,” a return to aristocratic society he typical short-term temporal perspectives has already been achieved: self-appointed elites in democracy apparently justify doubts about the claim to carry out the wishes of the masses. A direct, efectiveness of democratic governance in the unequivocal commitment to authoritarian rule can face of future risks and dangers of climate change. rarely be found in scholarly communication. But Problems of timeliness are central to the conditions the implicit message is clear when Dale Jamison, for of democratic governance. On the one hand, demo- example, suggests that it is diicult to see “how to cratic governance is captivated by the immediacy get populist democracies to accept constraints on the of frequently changing “events,” such as economic popular will that might help make climate stability crises or terrorist attacks, which attract the attention possible.” of voters and the media. On the other hand, it is To those who see climate change as a uniquely constrained by constitutional rules of represen- overwhelming threat to human well-being, democracy tation, like election and budget cycles, that prescribe itself seems inappropriate, its slow procedures for relatively short time horizons for action. David implementation and management of speciic, poli- Runciman in he Conidence Trap, his 2013 study cy-relevant scientiic knowledge leading to massive of the history of democracy in crisis since World risks and dangers. he democratic system designed War I, sums up these oten-noted deiciencies of to balance divergent interests has failed in the face of democratic governance by observing that democ- these threats. WINTER 2016 41 The idea Enlightened leadership? that science particular task of getting beyond our current Until recently, open and explicit expression of impasse, I also suggest that climate scientists doubt about the virtues of democracy has been rare and scientiic may be the only ones in a position to take the among intellectuals and politicians, with the obvious lead…. [G]iven the tacit contract between exception of certain leaders of decidedly undemo- leadership scientists and the state which supports them… cratic nations. In particular, scientists rarely have I will also argue that climate scientists are not raised serious misgivings in public about democracy ofer some only in a position to take the lead, but also that as a political system, most surely not in post-war they are obliged to do so. Germany. sort of But times are changing. he irritation with Complementing the expectation that scientists democracy and the shiting understanding of the role alternative must lead is the conviction that citizens are unpre- of scientists goes hand-in-hand with a change in the pared to act. We have already seen how some leading function of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate to democracy academics believe that the public is not cognitively Change (IPCC). Increasingly, the IPCC behaves capable of coming to the right conclusions about not like a scientiic organization with the mandate has, to put climate change’s urgency. Robert Stavins, director to ofer alternative policy options for political of Harvard’s Environmental Economics Program discussion and decision, but as a body prescribing it mildly, and an IPCC lead author, notes that a “bottom-up actions that are essentially political in nature, such demand, which normally we always want to have as limiting warming to no more than two degrees major and rely on in a representative democracy, is in my Celsius, as if such actions follow directly and unam- view unlikely to work in the case of climate change biguously from the science. weaknesses. policy as it has for other environmental problems.... Leading climate scientists insist that humanity is It’s going to take enlightened leadership, leaders that at a crossroads. A continuation of present economic take the lead.” and political trends could lead to disaster, if not a But the idea that science and scientiic leadership collapse of human civilization. To create a globally ofer some sort of alternative to democracy has, to sustainable way of life, we immediately need, in the put it mildly, major weaknesses. To begin with, scien- words of Schellnhuber, a “great transformation.” tiic knowledge does not and cannot dictate what to What that statement exactly means is vague. Part, if do. One of the fundamental laws in the portrait of not the core, of the required great transformation is a an inconvenient democracy is the failure to recognize new political regime. Hansen, Mitchell, and Lovelock that knowledge of nature must always enter seem, in quotations I cited earlier, to be voicing society through politics (whether democratic or similar sentiments. authoritarian)—through decisions about, as Harold Laswell famously put it, “who gets what, when, how.” Science, knowledge, and democracy Knowledge about how such decisions are best made What should be the role of climate science knowl- is not particularly available to scientists. Indeed, such edge and climate scientists in political deliberations knowledge is inherently and necessarily contestable. about climate policy? Can science, and thus should he vision of a scientiically rational and benef- scientists, tell us what to do? For the Massachusetts icent authoritarian regime is thus incoherent because Institute of Technology historian and philosopher it treats a simple technical goal—the reduction of of science Evelyn Fox Keller, the answer is clear: greenhouse gas emissions—as if the very fact of “where the results of scientiic research have a direct its articulation should automatically illuminate an impact on the society in which they live, it becomes optimal pathway for transforming the complex global efectively impossible for scientists to separate their energy system on which modern societies depend scientiic analysis from the likely consequences of for their survival. But as stressed by Mike Hulme, a that analysis.” To Keller, this seems to then add up climate scientist who has come down clearly on the to a compelling case for an immediately efective, side of democracy, such notions may be favored by practical political role of climate science, given the those “who are more likely to conceive of the planet seriousness of the problem of global warming: as a machine amendable to control engineering.” he pessimistic assessment of the ability of here is no escaping our dependence on democratic governance to cope with and control experts; we have no choice but to call on those exceptional circumstances seems to bring with it an (in this case, our climate scientists) who have optimistic assessment of the potential of large-scale the necessary expertise.… Furthermore, for the social planning. Yet all evidence suggests that the 42 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CLIMATE POLITICS capacity not only of governments, but societies, the experimental adaptability and they have the to plan their future is rather limited, perhaps collective resilience under duress.” But Runciman non-existent. he problem is not one of democracy, ofers a cautionary note, because “the knowledge but of the complexity of social change. From this that democracies have of their long-term strengths perspective, the claims that the key uncertainties does not tell them how to access those strengths at about the behavior of the natural climate processes the right moment. hat is why climate change is so have been eliminated does nothing whatsoever to dangerous for democracies.” Dangerous because the address the uncertainties associated with the social impatience of the climate science community leads and political processes for taking efective action. it to imagine that other, less open forms of gover- Consensus on the evidence of natural science, it is nance might do better than democracy. argued, should motivate a consensus on political action. he uncertainties of social, political, and Enhancing democracy economic events, the diiculty of anticipating the What is good governance? And what is good gover- future, are treated as minor obstacles that can be nance under exceptional circumstances? Is good managed by the experts. But contemporary societies governance democratic governance? show no evidence that these uncertainties are even he impatient scientists’ disenchantment with comprehensible, let alone manageable. democracy risks placing excessive power in the Indeed, this is precisely why democracy, incon- hands of states, transnational organizations, and venient as it may be, is not only necessary but, for multinational corporations. Participatory strat- a challenge of the magnitude and complexity of egies are only rarely in evidence. Likewise, global climate change, essential. To a far greater extent mitigation has precedence over local adaptation. than authoritarian governance, democratic gover- Global knowledge triumphs over local knowledge. nance is lexible and capable of learning from policy However, societal trends appear to be moving in the mistakes, which are inevitable when trying to deal opposite direction. he ability of large institutions, with something as complex as climate change. powerful as they may be, to impose their will on Democratic governments’ ability to learn allows citizens is declining. People are mobilizing around them, as Runciman explains in he Conidence local concerns and eforts, including responses to Trap, “to keep experimenting and adapting to climate change. Opportunities for enhanced demo- the challenge they encounter, so that no danger cratic governance are even now being created. becomes overwhelming.” Democracies “have he reigning discussion of options for future climate policies seems grounded on the idea that ater 25 years of failed international climate policy efort, the same failed climate policy regime must remain in place and is the only correct approach. he problem is not the proposed and still imaginary governance regime, but the actual politics that prevent its realization. It follows that international negotiations must lead to a new agreement for concrete, but much deeper emission-reduction targets. Only a super-Kyoto can help us. But how the noble goals of comprehensive emission reduction Ackroyd & Harvey, visualization of Radical can be practically and politically enforced at the Action Reaction, 2015. international level remains in the fog of general Ackroyd & Harvey’s Radical Action Reaction was declarations of intent. he more the international on view December 3–7, 2015, in the Jardin des negotiations fail to lead to meaningful global Plantes, Paris. A majestic tree framed by drapes emissions reductions, the more skeptical scientists made of live grass, this installation inaugurated the UN climate talks in Paris and celebrated the seem to become of democratic governance at the role of trees in enabling cities to adapt to and national level. mitigate climate change. A strong repudiation and falsiication of the current line of attack for climate policy occurred during the recent global recession, which contributed to an unintended and unprecedented reduction in the growth rate of carbon dioxide WINTER 2016 43 emissions. he worldwide reaction to the economic change through a single international governance crisis, most recently during the November 2014 G20 regime have failed. Now is the time to commit to meeting in Australia, however, shows very clearly democratic complexiication that fosters creativity that no government conceives of a reduction in the and experimentation in the pursuit of multiple growth of the wealth of its population as a useful desired goals. For those who think that there can mechanism to achieve a reduction in emissions. be only one global pathway to addressing climate On the contrary, all eforts worldwide aim at a change, the erosion of democracy might seem to resumption of economic growth. Apparently not a be “convenient.” History, of both recent decades single nation believes that the political and social and centuries, tells us that suppression of social consequences of economic decline are worth complexity undermines the capacity of societies trading for emissions reductions. to solve problems. Friedrich Hayek points out a Proponents of the inconvenient democracy paradoxical development: As science advances, it perspective draw the wrong conclusion from these tends to strengthen the observation shared by many developments, namely that only authoritarian scientists that we should “aim at more deliberate political states, preferably guided by scientists, and comprehensive control of all human activities.” would be able to make efective and correct deci- Hayek pessimistically adds, “It is for this reason that sions on the climate issue. No evidence supports those intoxicated by the advance of knowledge so this view. Certainly today’s China cannot serve as a oten become the enemies of freedom.” model. On the contrary, the authoritarian Chinese government that has delivered enormous growth of Recommended reading both wealth and carbon emissions is also delivering James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren: he an ever more educated and aluent population Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and that, in turn, will demand participation in political Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (London, UK: decision making, including environmental policies. Bloomsbury, 2009). An alternative model is therefore needed, and Eric Hobsbawm, Globalisation, Democracy, and I submit that it will be found only through revi- Terrorism (London, UK: Abacus, 2007). talized democratic interaction in which alternative Mike Hulme, Can Science Fix Climate Change? A perspectives can be presented and tested. A warlike Case Against Climate Engineering (Oxford, UK: footing has exactly the opposite efect, reducing the Polity Press, 2014). complexity of social and political life to focus on Dale Jamieson, Reason in a Dark Time: Why the one outcome. As Rosanvallon explains, war “nation- Struggle Against Climate Change Failed—and alizes people’s life. Private activities [are] largely What It Means for Our Future (New York, NY: shaped by collective constraints.” Oxford University Press, 2014). Climate policy needs to do the opposite. It must Evelyn Fox Keller, “What are Climate Scientists to be compatible with democracy; otherwise the threat Do?” Spontaneous Generations: A Journal for the to civilization will be much more than just changes History and Philosophy of Science 5, no. 1 (2011): to our physical environment. he alternative to 19-26. the abolition of democratic governance is more David Marquand, he Decline of the Public: he democracy—making not only democracy and Hollowing Out of Citizenship (Cambridge, UK: solutions more complex, but also enhancing the Polity Press, 2004). worldwide empowerment and knowledgeability George Marshall, Don’t Even hink About It: Why of individuals, groups, and movements who work Our Brains Are Wired To Ignore Climate Change on environmental issues. As the world gradually (New York, NY: Bloomsbury, 2014). transitions toward further denationalization of Timothy Mitchell, “Ecomentality: How the Future governance, democracies will produce new, multiple Entered Government,” Critical Inquiry 40 (2014): forms of social solidarity and obligations, strength- 479-507. ening local and regional capacities to respond Pierre Rasonvallon, he Society of Equals to climate change, and enhancing the awareness (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, of social interdependence. Examples include the 2013). widespread community and regional support of renewable energy in Germany—and the success of Nico Stehr (nico.stehr@zu.de) is the Karl Mannheim wind energy in Texas. Professor of Cultural Studies at Zeppelin University in Eforts to simplify the global approach to climate Lake Constance, Germany. 44 ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY