The climatic transitional zone of the northern Aegean Sea, potentially affected by different weather systems in the past, was the center of developed human societies that experienced rise and fall in the context of a few centuries. Interconnections of human occupation and climate shifts from the Bronze Age until the demise of the Roman Empire are investigated, based on the first high resolution isotope record of a stalagmite from northern Aegean region (Skala Marion Cave, Thassos Island, Greece). Fourteen U/Th dated layers tune precisely the isotope signal and provide distinct information of climate deterioration to drier conditions at 3900–3700, 3600–3400, 2600–2000 and after 1500 yr BP. The intensity of the impact of these deteriorations on human societies is evaluated against archaeological data and in respect to the tolerance of the societies in the Bronze Age versus the Iron Age. Finally, it is evident that downscaling to local environments result in time discrepancies between the records which could only be addressed when the most robust and large amplitude oscillations have been identified.

In this study, we present a modeling approach that investigates how much cultivable land was required to supply a society and whether societies were in need when environmental conditions deteriorated. The approach is implemented for the NorthEastern Peloponnese and is based upon the location of Late Helladic IIIB (1300-1200 BCE) archaeological sites, an assessment of their sizes, and a proposed diet of the people. Based on these information, the areal requirement of each site is calculated and mapped. The results show that large sites do not have sufficient space in their surroundings in order to supply themselves with the required food resources and thus they depended on supplies from the hinterland. Dry climatic conditions aggravate the situation. This indicates that potential societal crisis are less a factor of changing environmental conditions or a shortage of arable land but primarily caused by socioeconomic factors.

A core drilled from the Sea of Galilee was subjected to high resolution pollen analysis for the Bronze and Iron Ages. The detailed pollen diagram (sample/~40 yrs) was used to reconstruct past climate changes and human impact on the vegetation of the Mediterranean zone of the southern Levant. The chronological framework is based on radiocarbon dating of short-lived terrestrial organic material. The results indicate that the driest event throughout the Bronze and Iron Ages occurred ~1250–1100 BC—at the end of the Late Bronze Age. This arid phase was identified based on a significant decrease in Mediterranean tree values, denoting a reduction in precipitation and the shrinkage of the Mediterranean forest/maquis. The Late Bronze dry event was followed by dramatic recovery in the Iron I, evident in the increased percentages of both Mediterranean trees and cultivated olive trees. Archaeology indicates that the crisis in the eastern Mediterranean at the end of the Late Bronze Age took place during the same period—from the mid-13th century to ca. 1100 BCE. In the Levant the crisis years are represented by destruction of a large number of urban centres, shrinkage of other major sites, hoarding activities and changes in settlement patterns. Textual evidence from several places in the Ancient Near East attests to drought and famine starting in the mid-13th and continuing until the second half of the 12th century. All this helps to better understand the ‘Crisis Years’ in the eastern Mediterranean at the end of the Late Bronze Age and the quick settlement recovery in the Iron I, especially in the highlands of the Levant.

Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediter-ranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800–5700, 5450 and 5000–4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300–5600 and 5100–4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

in press, “The environmental, archaeological and historical evidence for climatic changes and their societal impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity”, with A. Izdebski, N. Roberts, and T. Waliszewski for Quaternary Science Review 2015. This paper examines the evidence for climatic changes in the Eastern Mediterranean for the period 200-800 AD and offers hypotheses on the role of climatic fluctuations in the societal developments that occurred in this region at the end of Antiquity. The geographical focus of the paper includes Anatolia and the Levant, two major regions of the Eastern Roman Empire that are rich in environmental, historical and archaeological data.