Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Mahmood Jawaid
December 28, 2014
The religious events in Saudi Arabia are declared by the High Judiciary Council of Saudi Arabia
(Majlis al-Qadā’ al-A‘lā). These declarations, however, are not limited to Saudi Arabia. Table 1
below (see Appendix A for details) shows that more than half of the countries in the world follow
the Saudi declaration.
Table 1
Sighting Report for Shawwal 1, 14351
Basis for Declaration Number of
Countries
Countries following Saudi Declaration(Saudi Arabia included) 41
Countries doing local sighting or accepting neighbor countries’ sighting 22
This includes ten countries (Turkey included) which follow Turkey Declaration
Countries using Calculation* 15
Since these events are dictated by the first visual sighting of the lunar crescent at the beginning of
each lunar month, the government of Saudi Arabia has set up several official hilāl sighting
committees. However, the religious authorities of Saudi Arabia also allow the testimony of less
experienced observers. Table 2 below compares the dates announced by the High Judiciary
Council of Saudi Arabia with the astronomically possible sightings of the crescent (see Appendix
B for detail) for the beginning of the months Ramaḍān, Shawwāl, and Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah. The table
suggests that about half (nine out of twenty one) of the announced sighting were a day ahead of
the astronomically possible sightings. Excluding the sighting possibility with an optical aid2, three
fourth (sixteen out of twenty one) were a day ahead of the astronomically possible sightings.
A study of forty two reports of sightings of the Ramaḍān new moon, as announced by the High
Judiciary Council of Saudi Arabia (Majlis al-Qadā’ al-A‘lā) between 1962 to 2001 (1381 AH to
1422 AH), confirms that more than half of these were too early and based on false sightings of
the lunar crescent.3 The study concluded that “there is a strong influence of the Ummalqura on
the observers: prior knowledge of the supposed beginning of Ramadhan (the study only focused
on Ramadhan only) via the civil calendar increasing the psychological elements in what is a
difficult observation, leading to a large number of reports of false observations.” A similar result
was reached by a later study covering the years 1380 AH to 1425 AH.4
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Table 25
A Comparison of the dates announced by the High Judiciary Council of Saudi Arabia6
with Astronomically Possible Sightings of the Crescent7
for the beginning of the months Ramaḍān, Shawwāl, and Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah
Was Saudi
Astronomically
Year AH Announced Sighting
Possible Sightings
Visible with Possible
1 Ramaḍān
1429 1 Sep 2008 1-Sep-2009 Optical Aid only
1430 22 Aug 2009 22-Aug-2009 Naked Eye
1431 11 Aug 2010 12-Aug-2010 Naked Eye No
1432 1 Aug 2011 1-Aug-2011 Optical Aid only
1433 20 Jul 2012 21-Jul-2012 Naked Eye No
1434 10 Jul 2013 10-Jul-2013 Naked Eye
1435 29 Jun 2014 29-Jun-2014 Naked Eye
1 Shawwāl
1429 30 Sep 2008 1-Oct-2008 Naked Eye No
1430 20 Sep 2009 20-Sep-2009 Optical Aid only
1431 10 Sep 2010 10-Sep-2010 Naked Eye
1432 30 Aug 2011 31-Aug-2011 Naked Eye No
1433 19 Aug 2012 19-Aug-2012 Optical Aid only
1434 8 Aug 2013 9-Aug-2013 Naked Eye No
1435 28 Jul 2014 29-Jul-2014 Naked Eye No
1 Dhū ’l-Ḥijja
1429 29 Nov 2008 29-Nov-2008 Optical Aid only
1430 18 Nov 2009 18-Nov-2009 Optical Aid only
1431 7 Nov 2010 8-Oct-2010 Naked Eye No
1432 28 Oct 2011 28-Oct-2011 Optical Aid only
1433 17 Oct 2012 17-Oct-2012 Naked Eye
1434 6 Oct 2013 7-Oct-2013 Naked Eye No
1435 25 Sep 2014 26-Sep-2014 Naked Eye No
Umm-al-Qara Calendar8:
Saudi Arabia is probably the only Muslim country which has instituted Islamic calendar for
administrative purpose. Since the administrative events require advanced predictability, it
employs a calculated lunar calendar that is commonly called the ‛Umm al-Qura calendar’. Several
neighboring states on the Arabian Peninsula such as Bahrain and Qatar also follow this calendar.
Many Muslim communities in non-Islamic countries, for example the Islamic Society of North
America (ISNA), the Fiqh Council of North America (FCNA) have also adopted their criteria to
declare religious events.
Since the calendar is used for only administrative purpose, it does not take into account the actual
sighting of the crescent. The criteria used in the calculation of the Umm al-Qura calendar have
gone through many changes since its inception. The following is the sequence:
Before 1395 AH – Uncertain:
Some sources claim that the computed lunar altitude at sunset had to be at least 9° above
the horizon at Mecca.
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Table 3 shows that these criteria led to the following:
In about 17.5% of all cases between 1356 AH and 1395 AH, the lunar month actually
started before the astronomical new moon (“Birth of the New Moon”). The crescent
sighting under such condition is not possible. Besides other conditions, the crescent
has to reach a certain age after the astronomical moon to be sighted.
In 22.0% of all cases, the lunar crescent was below the horizon at sunset in Mecca.
The crescent sighting under such condition is not possible. Besides other conditions,
the crescent has to be above the horizon to be sighted.
In 77.8% of all cases the lunar crescent could not have been sighted with the naked
eye on the first evening of the lunar month.
From 1395 AH to 1419 AH:
From the beginning of 1395 AH (13 January 1975) until the end of 1419 AH (16 April
1999) the following rule was used:
When the astronomical new moon occurs less than 3 hours after Saudi midnight
(equivalent with 0h UT or Greenwich midnight), the lunar month begins at the previous
sunset – otherwise at the sunset following that.
This is equivalent to a lunar age of approximately 12 to 15 hours at the start of the lunar
month. Table 3 shows that these criteria led to the following:
In about 33.7% of all cases, the lunar month actually started before the astronomical
new moon. As stated above, the crescent sighting under such condition is not
possible.
In 43.3% of all cases, the lunar crescent was below the horizon at sunset in Mecca.
As stated above, the crescent sighting under such condition is not possible.
In nearly all cases (99.3%), the lunar crescent would have been invisible to the naked
eye on the first evening of the lunar month.
From 1420 AH to 1422 AH:
Starting at the beginning of 1420 AH (17 April 1999) the following rule was introduced:
On the 29th of the month, the next day is the first day of the [new] month if the moonset is
after sunset at Mecca or else the next day is 30th of the month and [...] the day after is
the first day of the new month.
While these rules insured that the lunar crescent would always be above the horizon at
the start of the lunar month, it was still possible that this occurred before the astronomical
new moon. These anomalous month beginnings can occur when the moon is near its most
northerly ecliptic latitude, resulting in moonset occurring after sunset at the latitude of
Mecca even before the moment of astronomical new moon. This actually occurred in
Rajab 1421 AH and Sha‘bān 1422 AH.
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Since 1423 AH:
From 1423 AH (15 March 2002) onwards the phenomenon described above necessitated
a modification in the rules for the Umm al-Qura calendar:
If on the 29th day of the lunar month the two following conditions are satisfied, then the
next day is the first day of the new lunar month:
The geocentric conjunction occurs before sunset.
The moon sets after the sunset.
Otherwise, the current lunar month will last 30 days.
Under the current rules the lunar month will always start after the astronomical new
moon and with the lunar crescent above the horizon at Mecca (often just barely so). Table
3 shows that still in most cases (about 75%) the lunar crescent will not be visible to the
naked eye on the first evening of the lunar month as seen from Mecca (or elsewhere in
Saudi Arabia).
Table 3
Deficiencies in Umm al-Qura Calendar
from the Perspective of Crescent Sightability
Criteria The lunar month started
before the when lunar when lunar
astronomical crescent crescent was
new moon was below invisible to
the horizon naked eye in
in Mecca Mecca
Before Uncertain 17.5% 22.0% 77.8%
1395 AH
From The lunar age at the start of 33.7% 43.3% ~99.3%
1395 AH to the lunar month of 12 to
1419 AH 15 hours
From The moon sets after the 2 times none >75%
1420 AH to sunset
1422 AH
Since The geocentric conjunction none none ~75%
1423 AH occurs before sunset and
The moon sets after the
sunset
The Umm al-Qura calendar is intended for civil purposes only. Their makers are well aware of
the fact that the first visual sighting of the lunar crescent (hilāl) can occur up to two days after the
date predicted by the Umm al-Qura calendar.
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Table 4 below compares the Umm al-Qura dates with Sighting Possibility of Crescent for the
beginning of the months Ramaḍān, Shawwāl, and Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah. The table suggests that about
half (ten out of twenty one) of the dates announced in the Umm al-Qura calendar were a day
ahead of the actual sighting. Excluding the sighting possibility with an optical aid (we do not
expect lay observers in Saudi Arabia carrying a telescope, the sighting possibility will then be a
day after), more than four fifth (eighty one percent, seventeen out of twenty one) were a day
ahead of the actual sighting. This confirms what is stated in Table 3.
Table 49
A Comparison of Umm al-Qura dates with Astronomically Possible Sighting of the
Crescent10 for the beginning of the months Ramaḍān, Shawwāl, and Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah
Umm Was Saudi
Astronomically
Year AH al-Qura Sighting
Possible Sightings
Calendar Visible with Possible
1 Ramaḍān
1429 1 Sep 2008 1-Sep-2009 Optical Aid only
1430 22 Aug 2009 22-Aug-2009 Naked Eye
1431 11 Aug 2010 12-Aug-2010 Naked Eye No
1432 1 Aug 2011 1-Aug-2011 Optical Aid only
1433 20 Jul 2012 21-Jul-2012 Naked Eye No
1434 9 Jul 2013 10-Jul-2013 Naked Eye No
1435 28 Jun 2014 29-Jun-2014 Naked Eye No
1 Shawwāl
1429 1 Oct 2008 1-Oct-2008 Naked Eye
1430 20 Sep 2009 20-Sep-2009 Optical Aid only
1431 10 Sep 2010 10-Sep-2010 Naked Eye
1432 30 Aug 2011 31-Aug-2011 Naked Eye No
1433 19 Aug 2012 19-Aug-2012 Optical Aid only
1434 8 Aug 2013 9-Aug-2013 Naked Eye No
1435 28 Jul 2014 29-Jul-2014 Naked Eye No
1 Dhū ’l-Ḥijja
1429 29 Nov 2008 29-Nov-2008 Optical Aid only
1430 18 Nov 2009 18-Nov-2009 Optical Aid only
1431 7 Nov 2010 8-Oct-2010 Naked Eye No
1432 28 Oct 2011 28-Oct-2011 Optical Aid only
1433 17 Oct 2012 17-Oct-2012 Naked Eye
1434 6 Oct 2013 7-Oct-2013 Naked Eye No
1435 25 Sep 2014 26-Sep-2014 Naked Eye No
Table 5 below compares the Umm al-Qura dates for the beginning of the months Ramaḍān,
Shawwāl and Dhū ’l-Ḥijja with the dates announced by the High Judiciary Council of Saudi
Arabia.
Continued to the next page
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Table 511
A Comparison of Umm al-Qura dates for the beginning of the months
Ramaḍān, Shawwāl, and Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah with the dates announced by
the High Judiciary Council of Saudi Arabia.12
1 Ramaḍān 1 Shawwāl 1 Dhū ’l-Ḥijjah
Umm al- Umm al- Umm al-
Qura Qura Qura
year Calendar Announced Calendar Announced Calendar Announced
1422 16 Nov 2001 16 Nov 2001 16 Dec 2001 16 Dec 2001 13 Feb 2002 13 Feb 2002
1423 6 Nov 2002 6 Nov 2002 5 Dec 2002 5 Dec 2002 2 Feb 2003 2 Feb 2003
1424 26 Oct 2003 27 Oct 2003 25 Nov 2003 25 Nov 2003 23 Jan 2004 23 Jan 2004
1425 15 Oct 2004 15 Oct 2004 14 Nov 2004 13 Nov 2004 12 Jan 2005 11 Jan 2005
1426 4 Oct 2005 4 Oct 2005 3 Nov 2005 3 Nov 2005 1 Jan 2006 1 Jan 2006
1427 24 Sep 2006 23 Sep 2006 23 Oct 2006 23 Oct 2006 22 Dec 2006 21 Dec 2006
1428 13 Sep 2007 13 Sep 2007 13 Oct 2007 12 Oct 2007 11 Dec 2007 10 Dec 2007
1429 1 Sep 2008 1 Sep 2008 1 Oct 2008 30 Sep 2008 29 Nov 2008 29 Nov 2008
1430 22 Aug 2009 22 Aug 2009 20 Sep 2009 20 Sep 2009 18 Nov 2009 18 Nov 2009
1431 11 Aug 2010 11 Aug 2010 10 Sep 2010 10 Sep 2010 7 Nov 2010 7 Nov 2010
1432 1 Aug 2011 1 Aug 2011 30 Aug 2011 30 Aug 2011 28 Oct 2011 28 Oct 2011
1433 20 Jul 2012 20 Jul 2012 19 Aug 2012 19 Aug 2012 17 Oct 2012 17 Oct 2012
1434 9 Jul 2013 10 Jul 2013 8 Aug 2013 8 Aug 2013 6 Oct 2013 6 Oct 2013
1435 28 Jun 2014 29 Jun 2014 28 Jul 2014 28 Jul 2014 25 Sep 2014 25 Sep 2014
The table suggests the following:
More than four fifth (~82%) of these sightings matched with the Umm al-Qura calendar.
Seven of those sightings (highlighted in orange) were made on the evenings when moonset
occurred just before or even well before sunset. Such reported sightings are impossible.
These sightings could only be attributed to a bright star or planet (such as Venus) or an
airplane contrail viewed near to the western horizon.
Only three sightings (highlighted in blue) were reported a day after the Umm al-Qura
calendar and were astronomically possible.
Conclusion:
The comparisons above suggest the following:
The reported sightings in Saudi Arabia are heavily influenced by the Umm al-Qura calendar.
As long as the rules governing the Umm al-Qura calendar are not aligned with the actual
sighting possibility of the crescent, more than three fourth of their dates will be a day ahead
of the actual sighting possibility.
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Since the reported sightings in Saudi Arabia are heavily influenced by the Umm al-Qura
calendar, more than three fourth of their dates will also be a day ahead of the actual sighting
possibility.
Since more than half of the countries in the world follow Saudi declaration, their declaration
will also be a day ahead of actual sighting possibility.
Because of the weight Saudi declaration carries in the world, the countries or communities
following actual sighting will continue to be unfairly accused of being the spoilers.
About the Author:
Mahmood Jawaid is a chemical engineer by profession and writer by avocation. He is the
published author of “Secrets of Angels, Demons, Satan, and Jinns – Decoding their Nature
through Quran and Science,” “Atom to Adam – How, When and Where in the Light of Quran,
Bible and Science (A Study of Human Origin),” “Hunting to Cloning – Unearthing Civilizations
through Quran,” “Lessons from the Qur’an,” and “Divided We Prosper – A Humorous Reflection
on Human Cultural Practices.” He has also published many articles on religious issues in the
Charleston Gazette, West Virginia and has written research papers on Islamic issues from
modernist perspective. He has also written quite a few poems in Urdu and English. His writings
can be found on MahmoodJawaid.com. He possesses Bachelor and Master of Science degrees
in Chemical Engineering, has Professional Engineers license from the State of Texas, and holds
seven US and European patents. His e-mail address is mnajawaid@yahoo.com.
Copyright © 2014, and 2015 Mahmood N. A. Jawaid 7
Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Appendix A
Sighting Report for Shawwal 1, 143513
Yellow: Follow Saudi, Green: Local Sighting,
Blue: Follow Turkey, Orange: Calculation Based
Monday, 28 July 2014:
1. Afghanistan (Follow Saudi)
2. Albania (Follow Saudi)
3. Algeria (Follow Saudi)
4. Armenia (Follow Saudi)
5. Austria (Follow Saudi)
6. Azerbaijan (Follow Saudi)
7. Bahrain (Follow Saudi)
8. Bangladesh (Some areas follow Saudi)
9. Barbados (Local Sighting)
10. Belgium (Follow Saudi)
11. Bolivia (Follow Saudi)
12. Bosnia and Hercegovina (Follow Turkey)
13. Bulgaria (Follow Saudi)
14. Canada (FCNA/ISNA - Fiqh Council of North America/Islamic Society of North America)
15. Chechnia (Follow Saudi)
16. Chile (Local Sighting)
17. China (Majority Follow MeccaCalendar.org)
18. Cosovo (Follow Turkey)
19. Croatia (Follow Turkey)
20. Denmark (Follow Saudi)
21. Egypt - Moon Born before sunset & moon sets at least 5 minutes after sunset
22. Fiji Islands (Late change of decision by Fiji Muslim League)
23. Finland (Follow Saudi)
24. France
25. Georgia (Follow Saudi)
26. Guyana (Accepted Chile sighting)
27. Hungary (Follow Saudi)
28. Iceland (Follow Saudi)
29. Indonesia (Claims of Sighting - Official Announcement)
30. Iraq (Sunnis Follow Saudi)
31. Ireland (ECFR - European Council for Fatwa and Research)
32. Italy (Follow Saudi)
33. Jordan (Follow Saudi)
34. Kazakhstan (Follow Saudi)
35. Kenya (Claims of sighting)
36. Kuwait (Follow Saudi)
37. Kyrgizstan (Follow Saudi)
38. Lebanon (Follow Saudi)
39. Libya (following others who declared Eid on Monday 28 July)
40. Luxembourg (ECFR - European Council for Fatwa and Research)
41. Macedonia (Follow Turkey)
42. Madagascer (Local Sighting)
43. Malawi (Local Sighting)
44. Malaysia (Age > 8 hours, altitude > 2°, elongation > 3°)
45. Mauritania (Follow Saudi)
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46. Montenegro (Follow Turkey)
47. Namibia (Follow Saudi)
48. Netherlands (Follow Turkey)
49. New Zealand (Federation of Islamic Association of New Zealand)
50. Norway (Some follow Saudi)
51. Palestine (Follow Saudi)
52. Philippines (Follow Saudi)
53. Poland (Calculation)
54. Qatar (Follow Saudi)
55. Romania (Follow Saudi)
56. Russia (Follow Turkey)
57. Saudi Arabia (Official Announcement)
58. Serbia (Follow Turkey)
59. Slovania (Follow Turkey)
60. South Africa (Local Sighting)
61. Spain (Some Follow Saudi)
62. Sudan (Follow Saudi)
63. Sweden (Follow Saudi)
64. Switzerland (Follow Saudi)
65. Syria (Official Decision)
66. Taiwan (Follow Saudi)
67. Tajikistan (Follow Saudi)
68. Tatarstan (Follow Saudi)
69. Tunisia (Criteria of age, or altitude, or sunset-moonset lag)
70. Turkey (Somewhere on the globe Altitude > 5°, elongation > 8°)
71. Turkmenistan (Follow Saudi)
72. U.A.E. (Follow Saudi)
73. UK (Follow Saudi) [Coordination Committee of Major Islamic Centres and Mosques of London]
74. UK (Local Sighting) [Wifaaqul ulama), (Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat], OR (Sighting from South
Africa)
75. USA (FCNA/ISNA - Fiqh Council of North America/Islamic Society of North America)
76. Uzbekistan (Follow Saudi)
77. Yemen (Completed 30 days)
78. Zimbabwe (South Africa Sighting)
Tuesday, 29 July 2014:
1. Australia (Local Sighting)
2. Brunei (Local Sighting)
3. China (Some follow Local Sighting)
4. Hong Kong (Local Sighting)
5. India (Local Sighting)
6. Iran (Local Sighting)
7. Iraq (Shi'aas Follow Local Sighting)
8. Morocco (Local Sighting)
9. Oman (Local Sighting)
10. Pakistan (Local Sighting)
11. Spain (Some Follow Morocco)
12. Sri Lanka (Local Sighting)
13. Tanzania (Local Sighting)
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Appendix B
Astronomically Predicting the Sightings of the Crescent
According to the Quran the sun and the moon are a measure of time:
006.096 He it is that cleaves the day-break (from the dark): He makes the night for rest and
tranquility, and the sun and moon for the reckoning (of time): Such is the judgment and
ordering of (Him), the Exalted in Power, the Omniscient.
010:005 He is the One who rendered the sun (al-shams) radiant, and the moon (al-qamar) a
light, and He designed its phases that you may learn to count the years and to calculate. God
did not create all this, except for a specific purpose. He explains the revelations for people
who know.
The Quran ordains us to use the old time tested positions of the sun and the moon to determine
the timings of our worship. Astronomically speaking, the earth completes one revolution on its
own axis in about twenty four hours. The setting of the sun at the end of the day marks the
beginning of a new day (and date) in Islamic and Jewish calendar.14 Seven days make it a week,
which is of religious significance for Muslims, Jews, and Christians, because of Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday, respectively. Although the earth completes its revolution around the sun in 365.25
days and is of consequence for predicting the seasons, it is of no significance in Islam. In Islamic
calendar it is the moon that determines the month and the year.
The Sun as Measure of Time:
The sun determines different stages of time in a day and therefore the timings for the obligatory
prayers:
before the sunrise and before the sunset (Fajr and Asr), early hours of night (Isha), and on the
two sides of the day (Fajr and Maghrib);15
on the two sides of the day (Fajr and Maghrib) and approach of night (Maghrib and Isha);16
from the decline of sun till the darkness of the night (Zohr, Asr, Maghrib, and Isha), Fajr, and
late night (Tahajjud);17
late afternoon (Asr) and when the day begins to decline (Zohr);18 and
upon getting up(Fajr), in the night (Isha), and early dawn (Tahajjud);19
two-thirds of the night, half the night, or a third of the night, early dawn (Tahajjud).20
The timing of sunset, sunrise and noon are very obvious, but it is the Quran that defines when the
time of Fajr starts.21
Although the timings of the prayer are defined in terms of the position of the sun during the day,
astronomers have translated (simulated) these conditions to the twenty-four-hour clock. After all,
as per the Quran, the sun is orbiting in a fixed calculated pattern:
055:005 The sun and the moon follow courses (exactly) computed;
By rigorous application of astronomical methods, we have developed so much certainty in our
clock based prayer schedule that we do not bother looking at the sun. It does not, however, mean
that we have abandoned the basis for determining the timings for the prayers. The basis still
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remains the sun. However, because of our time tested confidence in the clock based prayer
schedule, we use it instead of looking at the position of the sun. These calculations are so accurate
that if one breaks his fast by seeing the sun set and the other by using the published calendar, they
will both be breaking their fast around the same time.
The Moon as a Measure of Time:
Just like the sun has different positions during the day, the moon goes through different phases
(mansions) completing its revolution around the earth in approximately 29.53 days:
036.039 And the Moon,- We have measured for her mansions (to traverse) till she returns like
the old (and withered) lower part of a date-stalk (urjoon-al-qadeem).
084.018 And the Moon in her fullness (at-tasaq):
084.019 Ye shall surely travel from stage to stage.
It starts as a ‘hilal’ at the beginning of the month, grows to become a full moon, and then shrinks
to become ‘like the old (and withered) lower part of date-stalk’.22 It then disappears for few days
returning as ‘hilal’ again for the next month. Astronomers define four phases of the moon: new
moon, first quarter, full moon, and last quarter. Since the Quranic statements mostly relate to
observable phenomenon at the time of the ProphetSAW, it only talks about the beginning, the
middle, and the ending phases of the moon (crescent [hilal], full moon [Tasaq] and just before its
disappearance [urjoon-al-qadeem]). As such it does not talk about the astronomical new moon,
which is invisible.
The term ‘New Moon’ in astronomy, refers to the position of the moon when it reaches an
astronomical point which is in line with the sun and earth. At that time, the sunlight falling on the
moon is not visible from the earth. The moon’s earth facing side is dark, as if there is no moon.
This phenomenon is known as Conjunction, New Moon or birth of the moon. The birth of the
astronomical new moon is a unique event and in certain circumstances it coincides with a solar
eclipse. It does not depend upon the geographical location of the observer From there on,
astronomically the moon starts a new revolution, but it takes a while to become visible.
The new moon in religious contexts refers to the first visible crescent (hilal) after conjunction
with the Sun. This takes place over the western horizon in a brief period between sunset and
moonset, and therefore the precise time and even the date of the appearance of the new moon by
this definition is influenced by the geographical location of the observer. The first crescent marks
the beginning of the lunar month in the Muslim calendar and in lunisolar calendars of the Jews
(Hebrew calendar), Hindus and Buddhists. In the Chinese calendar, the beginning of the month is
marked by the dark moon (astronomical new moon).23
Lunar Month Begins with the First Sightable Crescent (Hilal):
Just as it is the disappearance of the sun (sunset) that marks the beginning of the day in Islam, it is
the appearance of the moon (first sightable crescent, ‘al-hilal’) that marks the beginning of the
month:
002.189 They ask thee concerning the New Moons (ahillah). Say: They are but signs to mark
fixed periods of time in (the affairs of) men, and for Pilgrimage. It is no virtue if ye enter your
houses from the back: It is virtue if ye fear God. Enter houses through the proper doors: And
fear God: That ye may prosper.
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The term ‘ahillah’ refers to the new crescent. Although the Quran mentions different stages of
moon (crescent [hilal], full moon [Tasaq] and just before its disappearance [urjoon-al-qadeem]),
it chose ‘hilal’ to determine the new month. ‘Hilal’ is simply a marker from where counting of
the month according to the Quran begins. AllahST could have chosen any of the three positions
[crescent (hilal), full moon (at-tasaq), or the lower part of date-stalk like (kal urjoon al qadeem)],
but He chose ‘hilal’, the first sightable crescent. If certainty of the position had been the intent, as
some scholars claim (see Appendix A), He could have chosen the full moon.
Just as the basis of determining the prayer timings is the sun and the clock based timing is only
the simulated schedule based on the sun; the basis for determining new month will remain the
first observable crescent as ordained in the Quran. (For a detailed discussion on this subject the
reader is advised to consult “Cesarean Moon Birth” by Sh. Hamza Yusuf),24
This is further supported by the statement of the ProphetSAW:
1. “Fast when you see it (i.e., the moon) and cease fasting when you see it, and if it is hidden or
cloudy, complete the counting of Sha’bān as thirty days.” (Bukhari and Muslim; also,
Tirmidhi, Abu Dawud, Ibn Khuzaymah, Ibn Hibban and al-Tayalisi)
2. "Do not fast unless you sight the crescent, and do not break your fast till you sight the
(following) crescent.” (Al-Bukhari, Vol. 3:130).
3. "Do not fast until you see the crescent-moon, and do not break the fast until you have seen
the crescent moon, but if conditions are overcast for you then enumerate for it." [Bukhari]
All the three Hadith are clarifying what has already been stated in the Quran that the new month
begins with the first sightable crescent.
Hadith No. 1 also tells us that if the crescent cannot be sighted on the 29th, then complete thirty
days. Hadith No. 3 is advising the same for the cloudy condition. This Hadith cannot be used
independently to completely rule out the sightability of the crescent and base the lunar month on
arbitrarily selected criteria.
The Sightability of the Crescent Must be With Naked Eye:
Shariah does not impose any undue hardship for the sighting of the crescent. That is why the
ProphetSAW advised us to complete thirty days if cloudy condition exist. Requiring a telescope,
binocular, or an aeroplane, which did not exist at the time of the ProphetSAW and is still not a
common commodity, should not be a requirement for determining the sightability of the crescent.
The implication of Hadith No. 1 is that even if we know that the crescent is there, but is hidden
behind the cloud, we should complete thirty days. It is thus not the position of the moon, but the
sightability with naked eye that determines the new month. Thus if the moon is there and is
sightable with a telescope only, we cannot call it a sightable moon either. If it is cloudy or if the
atmospheric conditions are imperfect, the moon could be hidden from us. As such we cannot call
it a sightable moon with naked eye. Sightability of the crescent with a naked eye, which almost
everyone possesses, is the only acceptable criteria. We can seek the assistance of the telescope or
binocular to locate the crescent, but if it is not sightable with a naked eye, it will not be
acceptable. The determining factor is not the location of the crescent; it is the sightability of the
crescent with a naked eye.
Continued to the next page
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Predicting the Sightability of the Lunar Crescent:
Just as the astronomical calculations can predict the movement of the sun with a great accuracy,
astronomers have now refined their technique through rigorous calculations to predict the
visibility of the crescent with great confidence.25 After all not only the sun, but the moon also
follows a calculated pattern:
055:005 The sun and the moon follow courses (exactly) computed;
They have demonstrated that these astronomical calculations are at least as good as the real
sighting of the crescent. In fact if Saudi announcements of the crescent sighting are used as yards
stick (see the discussion later), these calculation are twice as accurate as the Saudi reporting. Just
as we determine the prayer timing from the clock, not the sun, we may in the future do the same
to determine the lunar month. Figure 1 below shows a typical Global Lunar Crescent Visibility
Map.
Figure 126
The map shows five parabolic curves, A, B, C, D, and E. The following are the key points of this
map:
The area under Curve A (dark orange) shows the region where the crescent can easily be seen
without any optical aid.
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
The area between Curves A and B (medium orange) shows the region where the crescent can
be seen without any optical aid under perfect conditions.
The area between Curves B and C (light orange) shows the region where the crescent can be
seen with an optical aid.
The area between Curves C and D (yellow) shows the region where the crescent can be seen
with an optical aid, but only under perfect condition.
Beyond Curve D (pale yellow and beyond), the crescent cannot be seen.
The light blue vertical curves are the age-line of the moon on the globe. For example since
the 10-hr curve passes through the eastern border of India, the age of the moon there in this
particular case at sunset will be about ten hour, but it will still remain invisible.
The black vertical and horizontal lines are the longitudes and latitudes, respectively.
As shown in the figure, we can infer the following for Rabi-ul-Awwal 1436 AH:
Crescent without an optical aid could easily be seen in the regions shown when the moon was
at least 19.26 hours old and under perfect condition when it was at least 15.8 hours old.
Using an optical aid, crescent could easily be seen in the regions shown when the moon was
at least 13.44 hours old and under perfect condition when it was at least 12.22 hours old.
The crescent thus could not be seen even with an optical aid, if it was less than 12.22 hours
old.
The crescent could easily be sighted in the USA, Central America and northern regions of
South America and regions west of it with naked eye.
There was no possibility of it being seen in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and regions east of it.
It could be seen in Saudi Arabia only with an optical aid and only if the perfect conditions
existed.
There are many factors that affect the visibility of the crescent. Table 1 suggests that typically it
may take somewhere between nineteen and twenty six hours after the birth of the moon for it to
become visible without any optical aid and after sixteen to twenty two hours under perfect
atmospheric condition.
Table 2 shows the region of the first reported sighting observations worldwide. As shown in the
table, the first crescent was not only observed under Curve A (easily visible with naked eye), but
about fifty percent of the sighting was made under Curve B (visible under perfect atmospheric
condition). These observations were made by volunteers who happen to be present in some of
those regions. Considering the area falling under Curve B, if there were enough observers present
in the region, the sightability in this region could approach one hundred percent. Since this region
is adjacent to the region where the crescent could be sighted with an optical aid (Curve C), it may
also be possible to locate the crescent in the region falling under Curve B with an optical aid and
then sight the crescent with naked eye. The point is that given enough resources, the crescent
could be sighted in the regions covered under Curve A and Curve B.
Continued to the next page
Copyright © 2014, and 2015 Mahmood N. A. Jawaid 14
Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
Table 1
Position and Time of the Visibility of the First Lunar Crescent
Islamic Month New Moon U.T. Longitude in Degrees Age of Moon in hours
Visible
Easily without Visible Easily Visible Visible
Visible an Easily with an Visible without Easily with an
without Optical Visible Optical without an Optical Visible Optical
an Aid under with an Aid under Danjon an Aid under with an Aid under Danjon
Optical Perfect Optical Perfect Limit (8 Optical Perfect Optical Perfect Limit (8
Aid Condition Aid Condition degrees) Aid Condition Aid Condition degrees)
A B C D E A B C D E
Rabii-ul-Awwal 1433 1/23/2012 7:39 -170.49 -117.67 -82.97 -65.46 -50.39 21.47 17.79 15.33 14.08 12.99
Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1433 3/22/2012 14:37 55.25 118.36 161.06 24.45 20.21 17.36
Ramadhan 1433 7/19/2012 4:24 -136.20 -61.59 -45.39 -27.01 -11.12 22.33 18.52 15.96 14.64 13.49
Dhul Qadah 1433 9/16/2012 2:11 -60.30 -9.58 24.81 42.65 58.37 20.17 16.73 14.40 13.19 12.12
Muharram 1434 11/13/2012 22:06 3.38 45.61 74.71 86.66 101.04 19.98 17.07 15.16 14.20 13.38
Rabi-al-Thani 1434 2/10/2013 7:20 -138.72 -87.03 -52.59 -35.03 -19.83 19.82 16.18 13.71 12.42 11.28
Jamadi-ul-Awwal 1434 3/11/2013 19:51 6.94 62.22 99.20 118.18 134.75 22.21 18.45 15.94 14.65 13.52
Rajjab 1434 5/10/2013 0:28 -118.02 -61.06 -23.97 -5.39 10.51 25.88 22.03 19.52 18.26 17.19
Ramadhan 1434 7/8/2013 7:14 154.69 -144.43 -83.30 -83.30 -65.41 24.10 19.86 17.00 15.52 14.23
Shawwal 1434 8/6/2013 21:51 -52.26 7.84 48.15 68.82 86.81 23.32 19.12 16.25 14.75 13.43
Rajjab 1435 4/29/2014 6:14 -162.71 -111.39 -78.01 -61.30 -46.99 23.10 19.61 17.34 16.20 15.23
Shaban 1435 5/28/2014 18:40 0.61 56.76 93.63 112.24 128.28 23.36 19.50 16.95 15.65 14.53
Ramadhan 1435 6/27/2014 8:08 149.71 -149.19 -108.49 -87.68 -69.59 23.57 19.31 16.43 14.94 13.53
Shawwal 1435 7/26/2014 22:42 -82.44 -19.66 22.31 43.80 62.50 24.46 20.08 17.11 15.56 14.19
Dhul Qadah 1435 8/25/2014 14:13 33.30 93.56 133.73 154.12 171.78 25.01 21.47 18.71 17.30 16.07
Dhul Hijjah 1435 9/24/2014 6:14 157.44 -146.70 -110.04 -91.56 -75.67 25.62 21.84 19.36 18.11 17.05
Muharram 1436 10/23/2014 21:57 -53.29 -1.14 33.00 50.16 64.89 23.86 20.34 18.02 16.85 15.85
Rabi-ul-Awwal 1436 12/22/2014 1:36 -47.92 1.14 34.00 50.85 65.53 19.25 15.80 13.44 12.22 11.13
Average 23 19 17 15 14
Min 19 16 13 12 11
Max 26 22 20 18 17
Table 2
Region of First Reported Sighting27
Curve A: Can easily be sighted without an optical aid
Curve B: Can be sighted without an optical aid under perfect atmospheric condition
Region of First
Reported Sighting
Month of 1435 with Naked Eye
Muharram Curve B
Safar Curve A
Rabi-al-Awwal Curve B
Rabi-al-Thani Curve A
Jumada-ul-Awwal Curve A
Jumada-ul-Thani Curve A
Rajab Curve B
Shaban Curve A
Ramadhan Curve B
Shawwal Curve B
Dhul Qadah Curve B
Dhul Hijjah Curve A
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Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
References
1
http://moonsighting.com/1435shw.html
2
We do not expect lay observers in Saudi Arabia carrying a telescope, the sighting possibility
will then be a day after.
3
Kordi, Ayman S. “The Psychological Effect on Sightings of the New Moon”, The Observatory, 123
(2003), 219-222 [ADS link].
4
Gadi, Adnan A. “A Historically Comparative Study of the Beginning of Ramadan (1380-1425H) between
Announced Dates and Astronomical Dates in Saudi Arabia”, in: N. Guessoum & M.Sh. Odeh (eds.),
Applications of Astronomical Calculations to Islamic Issues: Proceedings of the First Emirates
Astronomical Conference, Held at the Center for Documentation and Research, Abu-Dhabi, United Arab
Emirates, 22-23 Thul Kaedah 1427 AH, 13-14 December 2006 CE (Abu-Dhabi: ICOP, 2007), pp. 97-110
[in Arabic] [ICOP link].
5
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/islam/ummalqura.htm
6
Fatwa-Online
7
http://moonsighting.com/
8
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/islam/ummalqura.htm
9
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/islam/ummalqura.htm
10
http://moonsighting.com/
11
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/islam/ummalqura.htm
12
Fatwa-Online
13
http://moonsighting.com/1435shw.html
14
Although midnight is now considered as the beginning of a new day, both Judaism and Islam consider
the sunset as the beginning of the new day.
15
Therefore be patient with what they say, and celebrate (constantly) the praises of thy Lord, before the
rising of the sun, and before its setting; yea, celebrate them for part of the hours of the night, and at the
sides of the day: that thou mayest have (spiritual) joy. (20:130)
Bear, then, with patience, all that they say, and celebrate the praises of thy Lord, before the rising of the sun
and before (its) setting. And during part of the night, (also,) celebrate His praises, and (so likewise) after
the postures of adoration. (50:39-40)
16
And establish regular prayers at the two ends of the day and at the approaches of the night: For those
things, that are good remove those that are evil: Be that the word of remembrance to those who remember
(their Lord) (11:114)
17
Establish regular prayers - at the sun's decline till the darkness of the night, and the recital of the Qur'an
in the morning prayer for the recital of dawn is witnessed. And as for the night keep awake a part of it an
additional prayer for thee: soon will thy Lord raise thee to a Station of Praise and Glory! (17:78-79)
18
So (give) glory to God, when ye reach eventide (evening) and when ye rise in the morning; Yea, to Him
be praise, in the heavens and on earth; and in the late afternoon and when the day begins to decline. (30:17-
18)
19
Now await in patience the command of thy Lord: for verily thou art in Our eyes: and celebrate the praises
of thy Lord the while thou standest forth, And for part of the night also praise thou Him,- and at the retreat
of the stars! (52:48-49)
O ye who believe! let those whom your right hands possess, and the (children) among you who have not
come of age ask your permission (before they come to your presence), on three occasions: before morning
prayer (Salat-ul-Fajr); the while ye doff your clothes for the noonday heat; and after the late-night prayer
(Salat-ul-Isha): these are your three times of undress: outside those times it is not wrong for you or for
them to move about attending to each other: Thus does God make clear the Signs to you: for God is full of
knowledge and wisdom.] (24:58)
20
Stand (to prayer) by night, but not all night,- Half of it,- or a little less, Or a little more; and recite the
Qur'an in slow, measured rhythmic tones. (73:2-4)
Thy Lord doth know that thou standest forth (to prayer) nigh two-thirds of the night, or half the night, or a
third of the night, and so doth a party of those with thee. But God doth appoint night and day in due
Copyright © 2014, and 2015 Mahmood N. A. Jawaid 16
Saudi Moon Sighting Reports – A Review
measure He knoweth that ye are unable to keep count thereof. So He hath turned to you (in mercy): read ye,
therefore, of the Qur'an as much as may be easy for you. He knoweth that there may be (some) among you
in ill-health; others travelling through the land, seeking of God's bounty; yet others fighting in God's Cause,
read ye, therefore, as much of the Qur'an as may be easy (for you); and establish regular Prayer and give
regular Charity; and loan to God a Beautiful Loan. (73:20)
They were in the habit of sleeping but little by night, And in the hours of early dawn, they (were found)
praying for Forgiveness; (51:17-18)
21
and seek what God Hath ordained for you, and eat and drink, until the white thread of dawn appear to
you distinct from its black thread; then complete your fast till the night appears; (2:187)
22
Ali, A. Yusuf, “Meaning of the Holy Quran,” Amana Publications, Maryland, USA, 1989, Explanatory
Note No. 3985.
23
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_moon
24
http://www.crescentwatch.org/cgi-
bin/cw.cgi?action=ART&subaction=viewdetails&articlesubmit=Go&a_id=3
25
Detailed reports of sighting and along with Global Lunar Crescent Visibility Map are archived on
http://moonsighting.com/
26
http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/islam/islam_lunvis.htm
http://www.crescentwatch.org/cgi-bin/cw.cgi
27
http://moonsighting.com/reports.html
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Mahmood Jawaid