ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA September 17th, 2014 No. 4 Primakov Clan’s Trap for the West or a Little About Putin’s Peace Roadmap Marius Laurinavičius, Senior Analyst, EESC In the last essay of the “Putin’s Russia” series influential American foreign policy magazine, we have reviewed the assumptions that suggest “The Atlantic”, announced a 24-point Ukraine’s that namely Rogozin’s clan was the main peace plan. This plan has allegedly been architect and executor behind the Ukraine’s developed by the American and Russian experts events. Therefore it would be natural to explore who met in Finland’s Boisto island. By the way, which Russian government clans are the most it was immediately announced that the meeting active in opposing the aggression towards was held June, but it was not explained why Ukraine, and how they do it. there has been no coverage about it until now. However, the events in Ukraine make us On the same day, based on the information from respond to the hottest issues. Moreover, these the representative of Finnish Ministry of events, if seen from Putin’s standpoint, will help Foreign Affairs, the global news agency better explain the system which we are “Associated Press” announced that the secret addressing in this whole series of articles. negotiation between the US and Russia about Ukraine was held in Finland in June. It is In addition to that, it can help reveal possible obvious that all the sources mean the same errors that the West might make simply led by meeting, but Finland’s representative seemingly the most noble aspirations of peace. This essay, deliberately referred to it as the secret so to speak, is about the wolves disguised as negotiation of US and Russia instead of just sheep or the influence of Yevgeny Primakov’s calling it some sort of an expert meeting. (who is a former Russian Prime Minister, the head of Foreign Intelligence and Minister of Later on, this announcement published by the foreign affairs) clan to Kremlin's foreign policy Associated Press was confirmed by the Finnish in general, and particularly the current "Putin's Minister of foreign affairs Errki Tuomioja. He peace plan” in Ukraine. did not reveal who exactly participated in the negotiations, but stated that "the Ministry of Eloquent look to the past Foreign Affairs helped organize the meeting at the request of the US and Russia.” President’s First of all, I will present some chronology that Sauli Niinistö’s representative said that the now, looking back, seems rather eloquent. president did not participate in the Russian- As if it was a sudden coincidence, on 26 American talks, but did not deny that the August, before the start of negotiations between meeting has happened. the Russian and Ukrainian presidents Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, Russian newspaper Officially calling this alleged expert meeting the “Komersant” and the website of one very “secret US-Russia negotiation” or at least a 1 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA meeting that has been organized by the Foreign Borodai, who were led not by the ideas of peace Ministry “at the request of US and Russian but more of Russia’s direct intervention. parties” leaves plenty of room for consideration. Thus we need to go further back to the past. Truth be told, it should be acknowledged that at the time the talks between Putin and Poroshenko It was officially announced that on June 9 did not progress from death point. As it appears Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey now, Poroshenko’s plan was nowhere near to Lavrov paid a visit to Finland where he not only complying with the proposals of the Boisto’s met with Finnish colleague Tuomioja but also group or the demands from Russia’s side. the President Niinisto. It would simply be naive Lavrov even called this plan "more of an to think that in the face of Ukraine crisis they ultimatum”, and the initiative failed. only discussed bilateral issues between Finland and Russia. The sources in Russia are very However, specifically after the failure of the specific - they say that Lavrov and Finnish negotiations the aforementioned successful leaders discussed the venue and format of the attack from Ukrainian forces has commenced, US-Russian summit. hence giving the terrorists a hard time. Although the weapons and mercenaries from Russia to There are no publications on when exactly the Ukraine were transported through the meeting took place in Boisto island. However, it unprotected border (Putin did not oppose that), can be assumed that it could have taken place direct intervention never happened, though between June 9 and June 20 when Ukraine’s Rogozin’s clan openly campaigned for it. president Petro Poroshenko first announced a peace plan and truce. I would venture to say that On the contrary - the Girkin’s discredit the whole logic of events indicates that campaign has started, and it was especially negotiations in Boisto were not held behind difficult to explain by traditional Russian Poroshenko’s back - Ukraine was at least analysis methods. There are enough informed about it. assumptions that suggest that Sergey Kurginyan, who is a political scientist close to At the exact same time Russia seemingly Kremlin and has became the face of this intentionally demonstrated “a proof of good campaign, acted according to the orders of Igor will” - on June 25 it suddenly canceled Putin’s Sechin, leader of one of the most influential permission to use country's armed forces in clans. But let’s expand on that in the upcoming Ukraine that was approved by the Federation articles. Council on March 1. The explanation for this withdrawal was based on "the national interests Focusing on the role of Primakov’s clan, there is of Russia." Meanwhile on July 5 (so after the one important fact that seemingly opposes the collapse of the truce and Girkin’s forced escape logic of Russia’s military plans. There have also from Slavyansk) Konstantin Dolgov, the official been rumours (especially after the terrible crash spokesman of Russia’s ministry of foreign of Malaysian airplane) that Kremlin was affairs, claimed that the “military conflict phase determined to eradicate all terrorist leaders. in Ukraine will end within a few weeks.” They were ostensibly no longer instrumental for Moscow. Therefore there have been hopes that Looking from the current perspective, the fact the military completion of anti-terrorist that separatists did not respect the truce and operation was just around the corner. However, basically ruined them by refusing to participate it was not only Rogozin’s clan that could not let in any talks can be explained by the fact that Ukraine end the conflict without any visible they were supervised by the envoys of benefit to Russia. Rogozin’s clan - Igor Girkin and Alexander 2 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA After the tragedy - diplomatic activity a few exceptions in the retaliatory sanctions that included lactose-free milk and milk products for At the end of July, after the Malaysian plane allergy sufferers. Experts immediately noted shoot-down over Donbass, the US organised a that this exception was made for one particular traditional annual Aspen Security Forum in company - the Finnish giant “Valio”, which has Colorado. The whole US foreign policy elite the lion's share of the country's food export to participated in the event including political Russia. Ostensibly this exception would allow heavyweights such as the former Secretary of the company to renew at least 10 percent of its State Madeleine Albright and Condoleezza export to Russia. Rice, the former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, various other former and current By the way, in terms of the clan battles in representatives of the US administration and the Russian government and the fact that Putin and most influential foreign policy experts. the top leadership are not necessarily always the ones who make all the decisions, it is worth Aspen discussion witnessed a wide spectrum of noting that “Valio’s” export (which has been opinions on how to deal with Russia, but some renewed in August) suddenly began to sources state that behind the scenes the Boisto experience difficulties on Russian border, at group’s plan was brought up again despite the least temporarily. Allegedly some documents fact that even now, at least formally, it is not were missing. Although Putin had no apparent supported by Obama’s administration and the reason to complain about Finland’s behavior. majority of US foreign policy elite. But let's get back to the peace talks. Since mid- However, at the other side of the Atlantic August, there have been signs from Russia’s Ocean, Finland (Boisto group’s facilitator) took side that it may be ready for a peaceful solution, a sudden initiative. Initially the country stood so the negotiations in Minsk seemed very for stronger opposition to sanctions against promising in the international arena. Russia, but after the Malaysian passenger plane tragedy Finland changed its mind, and agreed Anders Aslund, the famous Swedish expert on that it was crucial to take action. But when Russian and Ukrainian affairs, publicly stated Russia announced the retaliatory sanctions, that Putin will be willing to negotiate the truce Finland started a buzz around the negative in Minsk. As an argument for that he named the impact they will have on countries economy, elimination of Girkin, Borodai and one other and president Tuomioja announced that the terrorist warlord - Igor Bezler. sanctions to Russia will be “gradually canceled”. Forced to accept Russia’s terms? On August 15, when the whole world was However, on August 24, not Russian discussing the threats of the alleged Russian mercenaries but the regular heavily-armed humanitarian convoy, Niinisto arrived to Sochi. soldiers invaded Ukraine and started to push He met with Putin and publicly opened up about Ukrainian troops from their occupied territories the need to address the crisis in Ukraine. in Donetsk and Lugansk. Immediately after that Niinisto went to Kiev to meet with the Ukrainian president Poroshenko. What is that? A sign that Russia can only be On September 19 Poroshenko announced the understood by reading the famous book “1984” negotiations with Putin (that were planned in written by George Orwell, as commented by Minsk after one week) and his new peace plan. Timothy Snyder, a famous American expert on Eastern European affairs? Or maybe yet another Immediately after that Russia showed an proof of Putin’s insincerity? unexpected sign of good will to Finland - made 3 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA I believe that this was a deliberate and September 5 the official truce agreement was consistent policy that the Russians describe signed in Minsk although some separatists using the term “prinuzhdienyjie k miru”. There stated again that it does not mean that they is no direct translation to other languages but it completely refuse the idea of separating from basically means “partner coercion to agree to Ukraine. the imposed conditions of peace talks”. Who does Putin listen to? And most importantly, this scenario of limited invasion of regular army units was acceptable to Such a long story of all the efforts paid to hold all clans. To the agents of war it was acceptable the negotiations which, at first glance, is not because of the impact on Ukraine’s forces and related to Russia’s government clans, is their desire that Russian troops finish the necessary to illustrate that Russia, which was occupation of at least the Eastern part of actively fighting in Donbass (with efforts from Ukraine. For the architects of peace talks it was Rogozin’s, Chemezov’s and Ivanov’s clans), acceptable because this limited invasion actually basically never rejected the idea of truce and increased Ukraine’s and the West’s diplomatic solution, and actively aimed for it. determination to be more flexible if instead of Because other government clans were also further military escalation of the conflict the pursuing that - even the big part of those who truce was proposed. not only supported Crimea’s annexation but directly contributed to it. Clans’ balance turned Knowing that even after the Russian invasion the other way after the Crimea. things went in the direction of peace instead of war (diplomatic efforts to achieve peace did not It can explain why back in May, after the stop even when Poroshenka and Putin failed to behind-the-scenes negotiations with the West, reach an agreement in Minsk), it can be Putin encouraged Donbass separatists not to assumed that the aforementioned hold a referendum on the separation, and later "prinuzhdienyjie k miru" scenario was the actual did not recognize its results, unlike in the one. Crimean case. In addition to that we can go further back into the past and remember that Although on August 29 Putin allegedly said to immediately after Lavrov’s and John Kerry’s Jose Manuel Barroso (the president of European (US Secretary of State) negotiations in London Commission) that he could “occupy Kiev within on March 14 (so before the referendum in two weeks” if he wanted, on September 1 the Crimea) Russia announced its peace roadmap. contact group held another meeting in Minsk during which the separatists announced what This plan from March can be divided into conditions were necessary for them to agree to several main points that are still visible in both leave Donbass to Ukraine. Boisto group’s proposals and separatists’ conditions on leaving Donbass to Ukraine that As a matter of fact, Alexander Zakharchenko, were presented in Minsk. Among them were the the new Prime Minister of the so-called People's following conditions: making Russian language Republic of Donetsk, denied that separatists the second official language, Ukraine’s could be willing to refuse the idea of separation neutrality liabilities (in other words - not joining from Ukraine. However, on September 3 NATO), country’s federalization (or in the Poroshenko called Putin again. After the current case - a wide autonomy of Donbass) that conversation he announced that the truce would provide regions to independently develop agreement was reached. Shortly after that Putin economic ties with Russia, even if Ukraine addressed the Donbass separatists to ceasefire signed a free trade and Association agreements and announced his 7-point peace plan. On with the European Union. Moreover, there shall 4 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA be some negotiations on Crimea’s status, more These words of Primakov were one of the specifically - validation of Russian annexation. hottest topics in Russia for a few upcoming days. It would be fairest to call this a plan of Primakov, not Putin who does not interfere (at Who is a real author of the peace plan? least not actively) Rogozin’s clan and its allies to seek completely opposite goals. But let’s get back to the so-called Boisto’s group and its peace plan who basically led to the Primakov himself, who turns 85 years in second try of truce and peace talks in Ukraine. October, currently does not hold any official By the way, some of the Ukraine’s Parliament positions in government. In February 2011 he members directly linked Putin’s peace plan (that resigned from a very influential position of the was announced in September) to Boisto group’s President of Russian Chamber of Commerce plan. and now is “merely” a chairman of the board at the military-civilian concern RTI and the study To start with, it is important to understand who research centre manager (which he established were these Russian experts and political himself) at the Russian Academy of Sciences. scientists who coordinated this plan together However, as we noted in the first essay of with American colleagues. One of two chairmen “Putin’s Russia” series, the official positions in of the group (it was managed by one American Russia do not necessary reflect the real power and one Russian) was Alexander Dynkin, the and influence. director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). There are For instance, Primakov’s influence can be plenty of reasons to consider IMEMO one of the perfectly illustrated by the fact that he was was influence structures of Primakov and his clan, chosen to present in detail the decision to cancel but Dynkin was Primakov’s advisor back then the permission for Putin to use armed forces in when he lead Russian government. He was then Ukraine on TV channel “Rosija 24”. seen as a very close figure to Primakov’s environment. Primakov basically announced a few things: further escalation of the conflict is not only In the group you will also find Vyacheslav unnecessary to Russia but also harmful for a Trubnikov, the former Director of Russian couple of reasons. First of all, it would Foreign Intelligence Service and currently the seemingly destroy the relationship with the First Deputy of Foreign Minister of Russia. West, and Russia is not ready for that. Also Primakov first promoted his companion because the state is standing behind in terms of Trubnikov to be his deputy in Russian Foreign technology. Secondly, in a strategic sense it Intelligence Service where Primakov held the would be beneficial for Russia if US and Europe Director’s position, and when he resigned - distanced from each other, and the events in Trubnikov became his successor. Another Donbass result in quite the opposite - these member of the group is Alexey Arbatov. He is Western allies are closer than ever. To add also close to Primakov’s environment and is the more, Primakov strongly criticized Rusian son of Georgy Arbatov who was Primakov’s media that uses propaganda (Primakov used this companion and friend back in Soviet Union exact term!) and acts as if it was preparing the days. country for war, while the war is the last thing this country needs. The permission to use armed IMEMO is represented by yet another two forces in Ukraine was purportedly authorised members of Boisto’s group - Fyodor specifically for the Crimean situation. Voitolovsky and Andrey Ryabov. Another member of the group is Artion Malgin, vice- rector at Moscow Institute of International 5 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA Relations and a member of Russian Council of who published the aforementioned Russia’s International Affairs - yet another structure peace roadmap on March 14 as well as close to Primakov. preparing the ground for negotiations of Boisto group in Finland. Igor Ivanov, Lavrov’s The seventh member of this group from predecessor, is also linked to Primakov’s clan Russia’s side is Victor Kremenyuk, director at and even his personal environment. He took the Moscow’s Institute of U.S. & Canadian over the leadership of state’s diplomacy from Studies. Back in 2007 he became a member of Primakov himself. the group “Russia-US. A look into the future” which was established by Primakov and Henry So Primakov and his clan have been shaping Kissinger, a patriarch of American foreign Russian foreign policy at least since 1996, when policy. By the way, in terms of Russian Andrey Kozyrev, who sincerely advocated the government clans, it is interesting that namely genuine partnership with the West, resigned Kremenyuk, not Sergey Rogov, (who is the from his post. This influence was determined director at the Institute of US and Canada) is the not only by the posts of Minister of Foreign one working with Primakov. Affairs but various other structures and the power of Primakov’s clan itself. All this information confirms the spreading claims in Russia that Primakov is the one hiding How should Russian Foreign Policy towards US behind the curtain of Boisto’s group. It is him be seen after the resignation of Kozyrev? I who, although not directly involved in the talks, would dare to say that the answer is exploits the old relationship not only with unambiguous - since that time the talks about Kissinger but with other member of the group any cooperation rather than confrontation with “Russia-US. A look into the future” in US (one the West have remained only talks. of them is Thomas Graham, the chairman of Boisto’s group from US’s side). In order to However, it is worth to separately discuss, for make this plan work and reach what has been example, the situation since 2007, when openly said at the TV channel “Rosija 24” and Primakov and Kissinger established the above- later in his essay in a newspaper “Rosiskaja mentioned group “Russia - USA. A look into Gazieta”, the former Russian prime Minister the future”. From the very beginning the group skillfully exploits all his connections and significantly contributed to forming the agenda influence both in Russia and in the international of the US-Russia bilateral relations. However, it arena. did not prevent Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008. Primakov and the “reset” policy What is more, this group largely contributed to Truth is, no one should be fooled by the the implementation of the so-called "Restart apparent peacefulness of Primakov, his Policy" after the war in Georgia. The creation of willingness to cooperate with the United States the All-party Commission for US policy and other major countries of the Western world, towards Russia was announced on August 1, and even a public acknowledgment that 2008, a few days before the start of Georgian destroying the relationship with the West would war. A few direct member of the group “Russia- be inexpedient to Russia also in terms of US. A look into the future” became members of technological backwardness. the Commission. And Kissinger, inspired by relations with Primakov, formed the It can be argued that Primakov or at least his Commission using the forces of the promoters clan largely controls Russian foreign policy. of the Nixon centre (currently the Centre for the Lavrov, the current minister of Foreign Affairs, National Interest), where he was and still is the is a member of Primakov’s clan and the one honorary chairman, and other advocates of the 6 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA so-called “realist” school of thought (as opposed Mathews who was the official author of the idea to the "idealist" school of thought). of the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative and the president of the Carnegie Endowment for Despite the war in Georgia in March 2009, the International Peace. commission published a report "The Right Direction for U.S. Policy towards Russia” that Meanwhile, various people became participants has become the ideological basis for the “Reset of the Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative. Not Policy”. Primakov and Kissinger from the only the architects of the US “Reset Policy” aforementioned group “Russia-US. A look into (that was initiated by Kissinger and Primakov) - the future” helped popularize this policy in former US Senator Sam Nunn, the country's Moscow. The confidence in successful retired general Charles G. Boyd, but many cooperation was also boosted by the hopes that Europeans as well - the former German defense the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev Minister Volker Ruhe, the country's former will lead the country to the direction of deputy foreign minister, current head of the democracy and collaboration with the West. In Munich security Conference Wolfgang the first essay of this series we discussed the Ischinger, the former British Minister of reasons why, from the perspective of Russian Defence Desmond Brown, former Turkish government clans, it is a fundamental mistake. Minister of foreign affairs Hikmet Cetin, and lots of other former high-ranking European Collaboration or influence? politicians and diplomats (in the context of Boisto group we should note Finnish diplomat After two years it became clear that the hopes of Rene Nyberg ) as well as industry the supporters of Russian engagement strategy representatives. failed. At the end of Medvedev’s term there have been lots of open talks about the failure of The interesting thing is that, for example, one the “Reset policy” and public discussions on the particular participant in the Euro-Atlantic necessity to abandon this policy. Security Initiative - Olexander Chaly, who is the former Ukrainian deputy Minister of Foreign But well before that Primakov and his comrades Affairs, published his peace plan in the website had already created yet another structure called of the Russian International Affairs Council’s Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative both in Russia (that is related to Primakov) journal “Rosija v and in the other parts of the world. Truth be globalnoj politikie”. The plan in many ways told, the former Prime Minister is not among the resembled Lavrov’s peace plan that was participants of the forum that was formally published on March 14 after the meeting with created in December 2009 by the initiative of US Secretaty of State John Kerry. the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. However, the project’s chairman from Meanwhile, in May this year, after the intensive Russian side was the above-mentioned clan international behind-the-scenes negotiations and member Ivanov (the former Minister of Foreign finally reaching public Putin’s disapproval of Affairs). The main participants from Russian Donetsk’s referendums and not recognizing side were Dynkin, Trubnikov and one other their results, another participant in the project - person from Primakov’s environment - Vladimir Ischinger - was appointed the OSCE’s mediator Lukin who is Russian President's authorized of the negotiations between Ukraine’s representative for human rights. government and Donbass’s separatists. However, he resigned from the position without By the way, Lukin’s name in this respect is reaching any tangible results. Nevertheless, important because in 2007 he founded Russian- diplomatic sources state that Ischinger has also American Round Table of democracy and worked behind the scenes of the Boisto group’s human rights issues together with Jessica 7 www.eesc.lt  ANALYTICAL PROJECT VLADIMIR PUTIN‘S RUSSIA negotiations, despite the fact that he is neither Russian affairs, for his analysis in December Russian, nor American. 1997. Primakov’s Eurasian idea of confronting US was not a secret to anyone, though today the In the meantime, Carnegie Endowment for idea of Eurasia is usually linked to Dugin and International Peace, that was the initiator of the his comrades, or Putin himself. Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative, became one of the main partners of Boisto’s group from US’s By the way, Primakov’s ideas stretched far side. beyond those of Dugin. The Russian foreign minister (Primakov held the post at the time) All these connections and created structures of suggested to form a union of Russia, China and Primakov (who has been controlling Russian India - only to overcome US’s dominance in the foreign policy for many years) and his clan are world. The infamous Primakov’s “turning the listed here not to spread conspiracy theories plane around over the Atlantic ocean when he about the allegedly existing Munich’s or Yalta’s was flying to US and decided to protest against agreements. But one thing is obvious - the the bombing of Yugoslavia” in 1999 also cannot “Russian engagement strategy” that is be seen as an example of collaboration with the prevailing in the West has led to various West. initiatives of strengthening collaboration and security with people from the same environment Since the start of the Arab Spring Primakov in Russia. explained that these are the revolutions organized by US and its secret service CIA. He Many of them to this day are considered repeated it many times about Yanuhovich’s successful (maybe except for “Reset Policy”). elimination and US’s alleged conspiracy against But it in no way prevented the Georgian war, Russia. In this respect, Primakov’s rhetorics are Crimean annexation or the further Russian not much different from that of Dugin or aggression in Donbass Rogozin. And we can go on and on with the obvious signs that clearly show Primakov’s In this case it is not important whether international attitudes. Primakov’s clan was always directly involved into destroying Europe’s security that was being But is it worth it? Especially knowing that the created by the said initiatives. More important is close cooperation of Primakov’s clan with the that these initiatives failed, while Primakov’s US and Europe in terms of security policy did clan reach a significant part of its plans. not prevent the war in Georgia or the aggression in Ukraine. Together with other clans Primakov Is Primakov’s doctrine forgotten? agreed to the annexation of Crimea, and even publicly declared it. So what can be expected Primakov’s ideological attitudes were not only from the current Kissinger-Primakov peace plan familiar to the West but very well examined in in Ukraine, even if it will be implemented? New 1997-2000 - before Putin came to power. I will Russian aggression after a couple of years? only present the header of certain analysis which reflects (eloquently enough) how This foreign policy architect, who has enchanted Primakov’s foreign policy and his doctrine were many people in the West, will do everything it seen back then. Thought never clearly described takes to “stop US’s expansion” again when in one document, it was seemingly rather clear Russia is even stronger and collaboration with to the West. the West - no longer crucial. Wouldn’t it appear that with current peace initiatives in Ukraine “Primakov’s Doctrine: Russia's zero-sum game Russia simply lures the West into the trap with the United States” - the eloquent title was instead of acting bluntly as the clans of chosen by Ariel Cohen, a famous US analyst on Rogozin, Chemezov ir Ivanov? 8 www.eesc.lt