System Dynamics

Lymphatic-filariasis-transmission-and-control-a-mathematical-modeling-approach

by Asep K. Supriatna

Written with Nursanti Anggriani

No abstract No abstract

Network project management: Visualising collective knowledge to better understand and model a project-portfolio

by Graham Durant-Law

My PhD thesis

This research contributes to the bodies of knowledge in the general management, knowledge management, project... more This research contributes to the bodies of knowledge in the general management, knowledge management, project management, network analysis, and system dynamics disciplines. The primary contribution is the proof of a holistic business methodology that elicits the capacity of an organisation to engage effectively in its activities, particularly within project-program and project-portfolio environments. The methodology, which I have called Business Network Analysis™, bridges the instrumental and social action management discourses to help managers mobilise and leverage knowledge assets, and to understand their knowledge landscape. It provides any combination of quantitative, qualitative, and graphical answers across the ‘know-how, know-what, know-why, know-who, know-where, know-when, and know-how-much’ business knowledge components.

In project-program and project-portfolio environments the methodology can be used at the level of artefacts, processes, individuals, teams, departments, or organisations to:

• assess project-program and project-portfolio operations by mapping the formal and informal process flows of an organisation;
• identify and then integrate current actual practice across core processes;
• understand inter-departmental document relationships;
• assess project-program and project-portfolio operations by plotting the communication path and time taken for a decision to propagate through an organisation;
• identify and accelerate the flow of information and knowledge across functional, project-program, and organisational boundaries by detecting and correcting information bottlenecks, and identifying where increased knowledge flow will have the most impact;
• improve decision making in project-program and project-portfolio manager networks by mapping inter- and intra-organisational dependencies;
• improve decision making in project-program and project-portfolio manager networks by identifying and correcting structural holes (Burt 1995, 2004) in personal networks;
• improve decision making in project and project-program manager networks by plotting project dependencies;
• support project and project-program manager collaboration by identifying potential partnerships and connecting people to people to ensure effective knowledge creation and sharing;
• assess the state of social capital by identifying individuals and project teams playing central roles, such as key knowledge brokers;
• assess the state of individual and project team social capital by identifying trust, support, and advice networks;
• support collaboration by raising the awareness of the importance of informal networks, and weaving communities of practice;
• simulate the effect of unknown dependencies on project rework; and
• determine an optimal number of projects for a project-program or project-portfolio.

Business Network Analysis™ is therefore both a management audit methodology and a project-program or project-portfolio knowledge management methodology. Hargie and Tourish (2009) stress the requirement for organisations to develop and implement auditing techniques that measure organisational climate in the same way they audit financial statements. Similarly, Edvinsson and Malone (1997) and Huff and Jenkins (2002) stress the need for the firm to map routinely strategic knowledge, but note the difficulty in identifying knowledge assets, and more importantly, in presenting visually the outcome. Business Network Analysis™ satisfies both requirements and therefore bridges the gap between theory and practice. At the same time, it is a diagnostic bottom-up methodology that gives an emancipatory voice, in keeping with Ulrich’s (1998, 2003) critical systems approach, to all participants in the organisation. It also helps connect existing management disciplines in trans-disciplinary ways as opposed to multi-disciplinary ways.

The final proof of the value of the Business Network Analysis™ methodology is the fact that the Australian Defence Force’s Capability Development Group is using it, and will continue to do so. Furthermore, the methodology has been adopted in other areas of Defence, and is the cornerstone of an already successful business venture called HyperEdge Pty Ltd

Integrated modelling for assessing the risk of TCE groundwater contamination to human and surface water ecosystems

by Simon Goltermann Funder

Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented System Dynamics model. The use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia.

by Giuseppe Feola

with Gallati J.A. and Binder C.R., in the System Dynamics Review 28(1):68-93.

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and... more The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

Accessibility of Norwegian Municipalities Websites: A Decision Support Tool

by Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad

Co-authored with: Mikael H. Snaprud, and John Krogstie.
Published in the proceedings of the UKSim 5th European Modelling Symposium On Computer Modelling and Simulation (EMS2011) in Madrid, Spain, 16-18 November 2011

Access to public websites is crucial to assure equal opportunities for all citizens to participate in society.... more Access to public websites is crucial to assure equal opportunities for all citizens to participate in society. Although, a range of studies to analyse the accessibility of websites have been carried out, we have not been able to find any study evaluating the effect of managerial decisions on the accessibility of websites. This paper presents a demonstrator simulation model, built using System Dynamics methodology. The model focuses on accessibility of Norwegian Municipal websites, and is intended to be used as a decision support tool, mainly for managers responsible for website development and maintenance. To build the underlying model we have used information collected from in-depth interviews with representatives from a group of Norwegian municipalities, and the outcomes of a review of the relevant literature. The paper contains a description of the model structure, and the behaviour from running the model using parameters of two Norwegian municipalities.

Winter School In "Managing Dynamic Complexity in the Public Sector a System Dynamics-based Balanced Scorecard Approach"

by Carmine Bianchi

This is an elective course offered by the University of Palermo (Italy). It also is part of the curriculum of our PhD... more This is an elective course offered by the University of Palermo (Italy). It also is part of the curriculum of our PhD program in “Model Based Public Planning, Policy Design, and Management” jointly run with the Universities of Bergen (Norway) and Nijmegen (The Netherlands). The School follows the successful experience of the Summer Schools held in 2009 and 2010. In the two editions we hosted 45 participants coming from different countries around the world. In 2009 the Summer School was held in Ustica (a flourishing island located 60 kms North of Palermo), with students attending from different parts of the world (Brazil, Egypt, Holland, Mozambique, Norway, Poland, Venezuela, and Italy) on the topic of “Model Based Public Planning, Policy Design, and Management: a System Dynamics approach”.
In 2010 the School was held in Mondello (Palermo). The School covered the topic of public sector performance. Examples and peculiarities of System Dynamics applications to specific industries of Health Care, Public Utilities, Energy, Housing, Public Works, and Social Services were provided. Participants were involved in working with teams to apply System Dynamics (SD) modelling to their own research fields. To build on last year’s experience, this year the School will focus on the topic of Dynamic Balanced Scorecards.

MAIN GOALS: - Illustrate how SD can enhance Planning & Strategic Control Systems to improve performance in the public sector; - Discuss case-studies where performance management is a key issue in the public sector, and analyse how to develop a BSC and a related SD simulation model, based on them; - Detect functional and dysfunctional issues in developing performance measurement systems in the public sector and linking them to BSCs; - Analyse DBSC cases not only on an institutional, but also on an inter-institutional level; - Support participants in developing System Dynamics models supporting BSCs, focussed on their own research projects.

Systems Mapping of Consumer Acceptance of Agrifood Nanotechnology

by Robert M. Yawson

Robert M. Yawson & Jennifer Kuzma


Journal of Consumer Policy, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 299-322, 2010 | May 22, 2010

Application of nanotechnology in the agrifood system and the rising number of nanofood products on the market are... more Application of nanotechnology in the agrifood system and the rising number of nanofood products on the market are creating concerns among consumers and other stakeholders. These concerns and other potential barriers to the commercialization of agrifood nanotechnology products may limit the ability to capture its full potential. Understanding the emerging trends and the links between underlying values, expressed attitudes, and actual behaviors involving consumer acceptance of agrifood nanotechnology is important for governance, risk regulation, and the achievement of the full potential of agrifood nanotechnology. The purpose of the study was to use systems mapping to examine and analyze critical links between consumer acceptance of agrifood nanotechnology and factors such as trust, stakeholders, institutions, knowledge, and human environmental health risks. The study used a meta-analysis of the risk perception literature and solicited the opinions of experts to develop the systems map. Factors affecting consumer acceptance of agrifood nanotechnology are dynamic, complex, interactive, and interdependent, and consumer decisions to accept agrifood nanotechnology were found to be the results of complex feedback structure. This study suggests several consumer policy and programmatic levels in the system toward enhancing consumer acceptance of agrifood nanotechnology products where warranted.

The Ecological System of Innovation: A New Architectural Framework for a Functional Evidence-Based Platform for Science and Innovation Policy

by Robert M. Yawson

In: The Future of Innovation - Proceedings of the XX ISPIM 2009 Conference, Vienna, Austria, June 21-24, 2009

Models on innovation, for the most part, do not include a comprehensive and end-to-end view. Most innovation policy... more Models on innovation, for the most part, do not include a comprehensive and end-to-end view. Most innovation policy attention seems to be focused on the capacity to innovate and on input factors such as R&D investment, scientific institutions, human resources and capital. Such inputs frequently serve as proxies for innovativeness and are correlated with intermediate outputs such as patent counts and outcomes such as GDP per capita. While this kind of analysis is generally indicative of innovative behaviour, it is less useful in terms of discriminating causality and what drives successful strategy or public policy interventions. This situation has led to the developing of new frameworks for the innovation system led by National Science and Technology Policy Centres across the globe. These new models of innovation are variously referred to as the National Innovation Ecosystem. There is, however, a fundamental question that needs to be answered: what elements should an innovation policy include, and how should such policies be implemented? This paper attempts to answer this question.

Using System Dynamics to Assess the Role of Socio-economic Status in Tuberculosis Incidence

by Marisa Analia Sanchez

Published in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2011, Volume 7041/2011, 464-475, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-24690-6_32.

System Dynamics Model of Infrastructure Induced Development on Taiwan

by Lee D. Han

Proceedings of the 1987 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 151-179
with Donald R. DREW

This paper describes a pilot model, the harbinger of a comprehensive package of interactive national, regional, and... more This paper describes a pilot model, the harbinger of a comprehensive package of interactive national, regional, and sectoral models of Taiwan, to be used for long range planning. The model, called DMT (Development Model of Taiwan) is distilled from many mental and verbal models of Taiwan, each of which involved various segments of the system with considerations given to certain variables and to various policy interventions involving still other variables. Click here if you’d like to read this paper in its entirety.

Applying System Dynamics to Confront Complex Decision Making in R&D Systems

by Nader Ale Ebrahim نادر آل ابراهیم

An exploratory system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between errors that occur in construction documents in Saudi Arabia and their possible causes

by Rukn Eldeen Mohammed

A system dynamics model for the environmental management of the Sepetiba Bay watershed, Brazil

by Marcela González-Araya

Co-authored with Alexandre Leal Neto, Luiz F. L., Legey and Sílvio Jablonsky
Reference:
Neto, A. de C. L., Legey, L.F.L, González-Araya, M.C., Jablonski, S., 2006, “A System Dynamics Model for the Environmental Management of the Sepetiba Bay Watershed, Brazil”, Environmental Management, vol. 38, nº 5, pp. 879-888.

In the recent past, the Sepetiba bay watershed, located in the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil has experienced a rapid... more In the recent past, the Sepetiba bay watershed, located in the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil has experienced a rapid industrial development and population growth, as well as an increase in water pollution and environmental degradation. Because of the complex interrelationships among all the agents involved in the degradation of the Sepetiba bay environment and the consequent difficulty in analyzing them, a system dynamics model for the management for the watershed’s environment was developed. The model can be used to support the identification of investment priorities and policy analyses as well. This paper describes the model and presents some of its main results.

Entorno y Actividad Emprendedora – Un Enfoque de Dinámica de Sistemas

by Claudia Alvarez

Urbano, D. y Alvarez, C. (2011). Entorno y Actividad Emprendedora – Un Enfoque de Dinámica de Sistemas. DYNA Ingeniería e Industria., 86(5), 594-600.

En las últimas décadas se observa un mayor interés en el papel de las nuevas empresas como motor de desarrollo... more En las últimas décadas se observa un mayor interés en el papel de las nuevas empresas como motor de desarrollo económico y social. Las diferentes instancias gubernamentales se han interesado en la formulación de políticas y estrategias de fomento a la actividad emprendedora, mientras que la academia se ha centrado en los factores que condicionan la creación de empresas, entre otros.En concreto, el sector académico, a través del proyecto Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) creado en el año 1999, analiza el nivel y la variación en el tiempo de la actividad emprendedora en diferentes países y regiones, así como las políticas que pueden estimular el emprendimiento y la relación entre la actividad emprendedora y el crecimiento económico.Desde su inicio, el Proyecto GEM se sustenta en un modelo teórico en el que se destaca la visión holística de la actividad emprendedora, así como la interdependencia entre las diferentes variables. Sin embargo, justamente las anteriores características hacen que los modelos econométricos planteados hasta el momento deban limitarse debido a la complejidad del modelo teórico GEM. Teniendo en cuenta que uno de los objetivos del GEM está relacionado con la formulación de políticas de fomento a la actividad emprendedora, la dinámica de sistemas se considera entonces una de las herramientas adecuadas para tal fin.Este trabajo evalúa, por medio de Dinámica de Sistemas, políticas y estrategias de fomento a la actividad emprendedora, basadas en el modelo teórico del GEM. Se presenta el modelo causal junto con algunos resultados del estudio.

Accessibility of Norwegian Municipalities Websites: A Qualitative System Dynamics Approach

by Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad

Co-authored with: Mikael H. Snaprud, and John Krogstie.
Published in the proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, Korea, July, 25-29, 2010.

Access to all public websites is crucial to assuring equal opportunities for all citizens to participate in society.... more Access to all public websites is crucial to assuring equal opportunities for all citizens to participate in society. Several studies have been carried out to analyse the accessibility of websites. However, we have not been able to find any studies on the factors (other than technical) affecting website accessibility. The purpose of this paper is therefore to explore different factors prior to the web page development that may have an influence on the accessibility of municipal websites in Norway. This is achieved through reviewing relevant literature and performing a set of in-depth interviews with web-masters and web-editors from various Norwegian municipalities. The findings from these sources were compiled into a Causal Loop Diagram. Several leverage points to enhance public websites accessibility were discovered by exploring the Causal Loop Diagram:
• Increasing the budget devoted to the workforce, paying more attention to the selection process while recruiting and retaining the experienced workforce members.
• Keeping the desired development rate at a level lower than the capacity of the available workforce.
• Training the workforce in HTML and WCAG, in addition to updating technology, are possible long-term investments.

Identifying dominant behavior patterns, links and loops: Automated eigenvalue analysis of system dynamics models

by Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad

Co-authored with Bahaa E. Aly Abdel Aleem, Mohamed M. Saleh, and Pål I. Davidsen
Published in the proceedings of the 23th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, July 17-21, 2005.

The method presented in this paper allows for an investigation of how model behavior is created from the underlying... more The method presented in this paper allows for an investigation of how model behavior is created from the underlying model structure and how this behavior feeds back to change the relative significance of the model behavior. The method also allows us to identify the dynamics of the relative significance of the various parameters that governs the gains of the links and loops of the model. The method has been implemented mathematically using Matlab based software developed for the purpose of facilitating an Eigenvalue analysis of models representing complex, dynamic systems. This work is based on control theory as well as the previous work on eigenvalue analysis in the system dynamics. It summarizes the work by Ahmed AbdelTawab AbdelGawad (2004) and Bahaa E. Aly Abdel Aleem (2004) on automating the process of analyzing the structural origin of various modes of behavior exhibited by a system dynamics model.
The method outline and code developed in preparation for this paper is publicly available, allows us to analyze the relationship between model structure and behavior and may be implemented as par of any simulation package.
The Matlab code is available at: http://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/36455

Fault Tolerant Controller Design to Ensure Operational Safety in Satellite Formation Flying

by Kary Thanapalan

Co-authored with Veres.S., Rogers.E., Gabriel.S
Published in the IEEE Conf. on Decision and Control, San Diego, CA, USA, 2006

The paper addresses the problem of fault tolerant
control design that has the same effect as implicit control... more The paper addresses the problem of fault tolerant
control design that has the same effect as implicit control
system reconfiguration for satellite formation flying to increase
operational safety as it is important for successful missions.
Actuator and sensor degradation can be detrimental for formation
precision in terms of satellite relative positions and attitudes.
In this paper model reference adaptive control (MRAS)
and quaternion based adaptive attitude control (QAAC) is
proposed as alternatives to fault determination and isolation.
The adaptive systems approach is simpler as it avoids explicit
modelling, decision making and control redesign. Redundancy
based solution is used to protect against sensor deficiencies.
Simulations illustrate the efficiency of the adaptive systems
implemented for the control of the position and attitude of a
single craft.

Improving management effectiveness and overall performance of software development projects through a System Dynamics approach

by Diego Falsini

Co-authored with S. Armenia and M. M. Schiraldi, published in the Proceedings of the XXII IPMA World Congress on Project Management, Rome (Italy) 9-11 November 2008. ISBN: 88-88198-14-8

While existing research has mainly focused on project management’s static view, our work investigates the impacts of... more While existing research has mainly focused on project management’s static view, our work investigates the impacts of projects’ structure and behavioural dynamics on their performance, with a specific focus on the influence of some peculiar development processes. A dynamic simulation model of a single phase project was built using the system dynamics methodology. The model integrates several previously developed and tested project structures and adds a separate structure for the negotiation process. Simulations describe the behaviours generated by the interaction of customized development processes in single-phase projects. Project performances are measured in terms of time, quality and cost. Our research aims to show that development processes, as well as shared resource levelling techniques, significantly impact the dynamic behaviour of projects through the feedback, delays and nonlinear relationships which are usually omitted in traditional project management practice, as well as in methods, tools and models, but are very important descriptors of project complexity. Expanding the models used to manage projects to include dynamic features requires a change of focus by researchers and practitioners. The system dynamics methodology provides some of the tools for developing and implementing such an expansion in project models.

Energy Management in Residential Buildings: a system dynamics approach

by Diego Falsini

Co-authored with S. Armenia and G. Oliveri, published in the Proceedings of the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA), 26-30 July 2009. ISBN: ISBN 978-1-935056-03-04

Due to rapid population growth, unavailability of resources and climate changes, energy saving has become of great... more Due to rapid population growth, unavailability of resources and climate changes, energy saving has become of great interest especially during the last 30 years. One of the most evident human activities weighing down on pollution and energy consumption is the construction of residential buildings. However, the construction phase is but one of the stages in wasting resources. In fact, once a residential settlement has been built, it is time for the dweller to use up resources. In our work, we propose an analysis of the socio-technical mechanisms which move people towards energy efficiency and the technology innovation that make it possible. We will then describe the model structure and the various leverages that the users are able to handle during the innovation process. Finally, a discussion of results and implications for future research will also be provided.

A System Dynamics Energy Model for a Sustainable Transportation System

by Diego Falsini

Co-authored with Armenia S., Baldoni F., Falsini D., Taibi E; published in the Proceedings of the 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Seoul, Korea, July 25-29, 2010, ISBN 978-1-935056-06-5.

The transportation sector is one of the most resilient to the shift away from oil. Policies have been put in place in... more The transportation sector is one of the most resilient to the shift away from oil. Policies have been put in place in different regions to introduce alternative fuels and reduce the road transportation heavy dependency on oil products and the related environmental impacts; results, however, are in most cases disappointing. The system is resilient and goes back to the historical dichotomy gasoline-diesel. If from a policy maker perspective, a system dynamics model of the automotive sector can lead to the development of effective policies to achieve sustainable mobility, from an energy company perspective, such a model could be used to analyze possible threats and design optimal adaptation strategies for a highly volatile and market that is always on the edge of starting a new major transition. The model here presented can serve both purposes, and the results obtained show how a similar instrument can really make the difference in highly dynamic sectors with ongoing major transitions.