Risk and Vulnerability

Indicating fragility of socio-ecological

by Giovanni Zurlini

National risk registers: Security scientism and the propagation of permanent insecurity

by Myriam Dunn Cavelty

Security Dialogue 43/1, 2012, pp. 80-97. co-authored with Jonas Hagmann

Aiming at the measurement, comparison and ranking of all kinds of public dangers, ranging from natural hazards to... more Aiming at the measurement, comparison and ranking of all kinds of public dangers, ranging from natural hazards to industrial risks and political perils, the preparation of national risk registers stands out as a novel and increasingly popular Western security practice. This article focuses on these registers and the analytical power politics in which they are complicit. We argue, first, that positing science as an objective determinant of security truth, national risk registers advance a modernist understanding of how knowledge of national dangers can be arrived at, discounting both sovereign and popular authorities; second, that by operationalizing a traditional risk-assessment formula, risk registers make possible seemingly apolitical decisions in security matters, taken on the basis of cost–benefit thinking; and, third, that risk registers’ focus on risk ‘themes’ tiptoes around the definition of referent objects, avoiding overt decisions about the beneficiaries of particular security decisions. Taking all these factors into account, we find that risk registers ‘depoliticize’ national security debates while transforming national insecurity into something permanent and inevitable.

Pandemicity and Severity are Separate Constructs

by Alan Card

Rural Nevada and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Beliefs,and Risk Perception

by Ahmad Safi

Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry facade walls

by Tiago Ferreira

In: 14th European Conference On Earthquake Engineering. August 30 - September 3, 2010. Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia.

This paper approaches the issue of seismic vulnerability assessment strategies for facade walls of traditional masonry... more This paper approaches the issue of seismic vulnerability assessment strategies for facade walls of traditional masonry buildings through the development of a methodology and its subsequent application to the old building stock of the historical city centre of Coimbra. Over 600 building facades were evaluated in accordance to the methodology developed. From the post-earthquake damage assessment of masonry buildings in Aquila, Italy, it was developed and calibrated an analytical function to estimate the mean damage grade for masonry facade walls. Once defined the vulnerability function for facade walls, the calculation of damage scenarios was carried out and was subsequently used in the development of an emergency planning tool and in the elaboration of an accessibility routing proposal for the case study – Old city centre of Coimbra.

Analysis of Hong Kong’s Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones

by Pengfei MA

As an international megacity, Hong Kong suffers from a series of hazards induced bytropical cyclone for average 6-7... more As an international megacity, Hong Kong suffers from a series of hazards induced bytropical cyclone for average 6-7 times per year, and the consequent loss is often considerable.This essay analyses the vulnerabilities of Hong Kong to tropical cyclone from 4 aspects: social,physical, economic and environmental. Through the analysis, Hong Kong is found to bevulnerable mainly due to its rapid urbanization and limited land resources. But broadly speaking,Hong Kong’s vulnerability to tropical cyclone is not so prominent, and the local government hasbeen attempting to raise Hong Kong’s capacity and adaptability to tropical cyclones and the othernatural hazards.

Analysis of Hong Kong’s Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones

by Pengfei MA

As an international megacity, Hong Kong suffers from a series of hazards induced bytropical cyclone for average 6-7... more As an international megacity, Hong Kong suffers from a series of hazards induced bytropical cyclone for average 6-7 times per year, and the consequent loss is often considerable.This essay analyses the vulnerabilities of Hong Kong to tropical cyclone from 4 aspects: social,physical, economic and environmental. Through the analysis, Hong Kong is found to bevulnerable mainly due to its rapid urbanization and limited land resources. But broadly speaking,Hong Kong’s vulnerability to tropical cyclone is not so prominent, and the local government hasbeen attempting to raise Hong Kong’s capacity and adaptability to tropical cyclones and the othernatural hazards.

Die Neolithisierung von Südosteuropa als Folge des abrupten Klimawandels um 8200 cal BP

by Bernhard Weninger

Climate forcing due to the 8200 cal yr BP event observed at Early Neolithic sites in the eastern Mediterranean

by Bernhard Weninger

Warfare in Late Neolithic\ Early Chalcolithic Pisidia, southwestern Turkey. Climate induced social unrest in the late 7th millennium calBC

by Bernhard Weninger

Lee Clare, Eelco J Rohling, Bernhard Weninger, Johann Hilpert.
Documenta Praehistorica XXXV, 2008, 65-92

This paper proposes an association between climate forcing connected with the 8200 calBP climate event and a... more This paper proposes an association between climate forcing connected with the 8200 calBP climate event and a postulated phase of internecine warfare and population collapse at Late
Neolithic/Early Chalcolithic sites in Pisidia, southwestern Turkey. A summary of this evidence is provided and a hypothetical scenario considered in the context of contemporaneous developments in neighbouring regions.

Abrupt Climate Forcing observed at Early Neolithic Sites in SE Europe

by Bernhard Weninger

Bernhard Weninger, Eva Alram-Stern, Eva Bauer,
Lee Clare, Uwe Danzeglocke, Olaf Jöris, Claudia Kubatzki,
Gary Rollefson, Henrieta Todorova, Tjeerd van Andel

The Struma/Strymon River Valley in Prehistory
In the Steps of James Harvey Gaul, volume 2, p19-40

In this paper we explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and the associated rapid switch... more In this paper we explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and the associated rapid switch of the Thermohaline Circulation c. 8200 years ago (BARBER ET AL. 1999) may have had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of South-East Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the Near East. To evaluate this hypothesis, we have identified the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in Central Anatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, first by constructing a substantial archaeological radiocarbon database and then by stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geomorphological studies for these sites utilizing published data.

Uma análise dos reflexos da vulnerabilidade sobre a responsabilidade do consumidor

by Eduardo Augusto Pohlmann

Risk Threats in a Creative Funding Scheme For Infrastructure Project in Indonesia: CIleunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan Toll Road Project Case

by blinky offbeat

Vulnerability and the basis of business ethics: from fiduciary duties to professionalism

by Eric Brown

forthcoming in Journal of Business Ethics

This paper examines the role of vulnerability in the basis of business ethics by criticizing its role in giving a... more This paper examines the role of vulnerability in the basis of business ethics by criticizing its role in giving a morally substantial character to fiduciary duties to shareholders. The target is Alexei Marcoux's (2003) argument for morally substantial fiduciary duties vis-à-vis the multifiduciary stakeholder theory. Rather than proceed to support the stakeholder paradigm, a conception of vulnerability is combined with Joseph Heath's (2004) "market failure" view of the ethical obligations of managers as falling out of their roles as professionals involved in the institution of the market. The
result is the core of a theoretically defensible and managerially motivating and deployable ethic.

Michalis Lianos & Mary Douglas: Dangerization and the End of Deviance

by Michalis Lianos

Cortisol function among early school-aged homeless children

by J. J. Cutuli

Confidence, risk, and the journey into praxis: work-based learning and the teacher education curriculum

by Alison Iredale

Beyond FMEA: The Structured What-If Technique (SWIFT)

by Alan Card

Card AJ, Ward JR, Clarkson PJ. Beyond FMEA: The Structured What-If Technique (SWIFT). Journal of Healthcare Risk Management. 2012;31(4):23-9.

If you would like a copy of the final published version of this paper, and do not have access to the Journal of Healthcare Risk Management, feel free to write me at: alan.j.card [at] gmail.com.

Although it is probably the best-known Prospective Hazard Analysis (PHA) tool, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis... more Although it is probably the best-known Prospective Hazard Analysis (PHA) tool, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is far from the only option available. This paper introduces one of the alternatives: The Structured What-If Technique (SWIFT). SWIFT is a flexible, high-level risk identification technique that can be used on a standalone basis, or as part of a staged approach to make more efficient use of bottom-up methods like FMEA.

In this paper we describe the method, assess the evidence related to its use in healthcare using a systematic literature review, and suggest ways in which it could be better adapted for use in the healthcare industry. Based on the limited
evidence available, it appears that healthcare workers find it easy to learn, easy to use, and credible. Especially when used as part of a staged approach, SWIFT appears capable of playing a useful role as component of the PHA
armamentarium.

Impact of relief accuracy on flood simulations and road network vulnerability analysis

by Frederic Rousseaux

Jean-François Gleyze Institut Géographique National Service de la Recherche, laboratoire COGIT, Frédéric Rousseaux, UMR LIENSS, Institut du littoral et de l'environnement

The increased availability and accuracy of multi-sources data enhance the simulation quality of natural disasters... more The increased availability and accuracy of multi-sources data enhance the simulation quality of natural disasters (hazard). Moreover, it enables a better prediction of their impact on the territory (vulnerability). Numerical representation of relief (DTM) is a prime necessity in risk simulation, in particular in flood study. Integrating 2D objects into a DTM significantly improves the relief representation around each object. The aim of this paper is first to enrich the relief accuracy with the altimetric attributes of 2D vector objects, and then to assess the impact of these modifications within the context of a rise in the water level and its consequences on the road network vulnerability.
The first part focuses on the integration of 2D vector data (e.g. roads) on a 2.5D digital terrain model. The integration of 2D vector data on a DTM usually raises data consistance issues. These data often stem from different acquisition modes ; moreover, their scale and their dimension (2D, 2.5D, 3D) vary according to their nature and the data capture. In order to overcome these problems, our approach consists in converting 2D vector data in 2.5D vector data by assigning them a width and computing their elevation. Then, these latter are integrated into the DTM and make it sharper, especially on the former interpolated areas.
In a second part, we analyze the floods effects on the running of the road network in Orléans (France). In addition to the direct damages caused by the physical action of the water, the flood also leads to functional disruptions on the road network by forcing users to take detours. In a risk preventive viewpoint, the network administrator has first to consider a given flood scenario and consequently to identify the network components to be protected as a priority, in order to reduce to the minimum the costs induced by the detours. On account of both levels of precision considered in the original DTM and in the enriched DTM, we have to compare two damaging scenarios of the road network for a given flood hazard. To that end, we quantify the functionality of the network components with centrality measures and we compare the efficiency of the different configurations of damaged network with accessibility measures. The results of this study prove how much the flood of the road network, the induced functional disruptions and the associated preventive actions depend on the adopted precision in the representation of the terrain.

Scenarios of climate change sensitivity and adaptive capacity for an indicator-based vulnerability assessment

by Emma Terämä

Co-authored with Stefan Fronzek and Timothy Carter among others. Draft only.

Vulnerability to climate change is often defined as a function of exposure to climate change, sensitivity to the... more Vulnerability to climate change is often defined as a function of exposure to climate change, sensitivity to the exposure, and adaptive capacity. In this paper, we employ this definition in an indicator-based, municipality-scale vulnerability assessment for Finland in three thematic areas: the elderly, winter recreation and agriculture. We have developed scenarios at the relevant scale including detailed demographic variables. We illustrate the sensitivity of adaptive capacity (and hence vulnerability) to alternative assumptions about future trends in a range of socioeconomic indicators. Through combining exposure and sensitivity we are able to address potential impacts of future changes in the physical environment on local socioeconomic circumstances. We explore the possibility of expressing uncertainties in population-based and climate-based indicators probabilistically.

The vulnerability mapping tool is available at: www.iav-
mapping.net.