Risk Management

Post-event Only VHR Radar Satellite Data for Automated Damage Assessment: A Study on COSMO/SkyMed and the 2010 Haiti Earthquake

by Fabio Dell'Acqua

In recent years, a number of destructive earthquakes took place around the world. Earth Observation
(EO) -based... more In recent years, a number of destructive earthquakes took place around the world. Earth Observation
(EO) -based damage assessment was among the tools used to coordinate relief efforts; most of the published maps,
however, are still based on weather-dependent optical data and visual interpretation. Only recently, methods based
on radar data began to emerge, although not yet consolidated. In this paper we elaborate on a method for damage
assessment on urban areas set up on the occasion of the 2008 Sichuan event and tuned on the 2009 L’Aquila
earthquake; direct investigation of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, providing an even larger statistical base thanks to the
extent of the Port-au-Prince urban area, allowed pinpointing some characteristic behaviours, potentially useful to
improve damage assessment results. In particular, we note how results changed thanks to a more reliable and
accurate revision of ground truth data and outline a possible start point for correction of damage
over/underestimation. Quantitative results are provided.
Keywords. Very High Resolution, Synthetic Aperture Radar, seismic damage assessment, 2010 Haiti earthquake.

National risk registers: Security scientism and the propagation of permanent insecurity

by Myriam Dunn Cavelty

Security Dialogue 43/1, 2012, pp. 80-97. co-authored with Jonas Hagmann

Aiming at the measurement, comparison and ranking of all kinds of public dangers, ranging from natural hazards to... more Aiming at the measurement, comparison and ranking of all kinds of public dangers, ranging from natural hazards to industrial risks and political perils, the preparation of national risk registers stands out as a novel and increasingly popular Western security practice. This article focuses on these registers and the analytical power politics in which they are complicit. We argue, first, that positing science as an objective determinant of security truth, national risk registers advance a modernist understanding of how knowledge of national dangers can be arrived at, discounting both sovereign and popular authorities; second, that by operationalizing a traditional risk-assessment formula, risk registers make possible seemingly apolitical decisions in security matters, taken on the basis of cost–benefit thinking; and, third, that risk registers’ focus on risk ‘themes’ tiptoes around the definition of referent objects, avoiding overt decisions about the beneficiaries of particular security decisions. Taking all these factors into account, we find that risk registers ‘depoliticize’ national security debates while transforming national insecurity into something permanent and inevitable.

Whose Lyme is it Anyway? Subject Positions and the Construction of Responsibility for Managing the Health Risks from Lyme Disease

by David Uzzell

Paper to be published in Health and Place: Uzzell, D., Marcu, A., and Barnett, J (2012) Whose Lyme is it Anyway? Subject Positions and the Construction of Responsibility for Managing the Health Risks from Lyme Disease, Health and Place,

There has been a significant increase during the last decade in the UK of the incidence of the Lyme disease. It is... more There has been a significant increase during the last decade in the UK of the incidence of the Lyme disease. It is transmitted through tick bites, and can have serious health consequences if not treated early. This study examined how the responsibility for managing and communicating the health risks from Lyme disease to forest workers and recreational visitors was constructed and acted upon by 21 interviewees in key managerial positions within one of the largest UK forestry organisations. The in-depth, semi-structured interviews were analysed using discourse analysis within a Foucauldian framework. The results demonstrated that the construction of responsibility towards the workforce and visitors was embedded into broader representations of the forest as a working, recreational and natural environment, as well as into the binary conceptualisation of forest hazards as natural and human-made. These constructions prescribed respective subject positions which differentially informed assumptions of responsibility, and consequent actions, towards the workforce and the public.

Pandemicity and Severity are Separate Constructs

by Alan Card

DORIS PROJECT: THE EUROPEAN DOWNSTREAM SERVICE FOR LANDSLIDES AND SUBSIDENCE RISK MANAGEMENT

by Florence ReSeT

Fabiana Calò and DORIS Team

DORIS downstream service: a support to civil defence autorithies in landslides and subsidence risk management

by Florence ReSeT

A Ciampalini, C Del Ventisette, S Moretti, M Manunta, F Calò, L Paglia, F Ardizzone, F Guzzetti, M Rossi, F Bellotti, D Colombo, T Strozzi, U Wegmuller, O Mora, and F Sanches.

Pursuit of Certainty is Vain and Risky

by Yasmine Hayek

Tail Risk Hedging

by Yasmine Hayek

Capital budgeting under uncertainty

by Raj Aggarwal

Structured approach to organisational ICT risk management: An empirical study in Thai businesses

by siridech kumsuprom

DESIGN OF MARINE STRUCTURES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY FOR ENVIRONMENT

by Alan Klanac

co-authored with Petri Varsta, accepted for publication in 'Reliability Engineering and System Safety'

The paper describes a method for design of marine structures with increased safety for environment, considering also... more The paper describes a method for design of marine structures with increased safety for environment, considering also the required investment costs as well as the aspects of risk distribution onto the maritime stakeholders. Practically, the paper seeks to answer what is the optimal amount that should be invested into certain safety measure for any given vessel. Due to the uneven distribution of risk, as well as the differing impact of costs emerging safety improvements, stakeholders experience conflicting ranking of alternatives. To solve this multi-stakeholder decision-making problem, in which each stakeholder is a decision-maker, the method applies concepts of group decision-making theory, namely the Game Theory. The method fosters axiomatic definition of the optimum solution, arguing that the solution, or the final selected design, should satisfy the non-dominance, efficiency, and fairness. These three are thoroughly discussed in terms of structural design, especially the latter. Considering the coupling of environmental risk and structural design, the method also builds on the preference structure of four maritime stakeholders: yards, owners, oil receivers and the public, who either share the risks or directly influence structural design. Method is presented on a practical study of structural design of a tanker with a crashworthy side structure that is capable of reducing the risk of collision. The outcome of this study outlines a number of possibilities for successful improvement of tanker safety that can benefit, concurrently, all maritime stakeholders.

A new fuzzy approach for defining multi-purpose criticality of activities in PERT

by Sina Khanmohammadi

In this paper a new fuzzy approach is developed for defining the general criticality of activities where some other... more In this paper a new fuzzy approach is developed for defining the general criticality of activities where some other features such as probability of finishing on time zone, probability of impact, impact threat and ability to retaliate are considered as criticality factors of activities in project management process. In this way the risky situation (vulnerability) of activities are calculated by using fuzzy inference system. Activities are prioritized and classified by means of a fuzzy decision making procedure. The effect of considering such factors on project duration and cost are compared with classic PERT - where only the slack times are considered as criticality factors of activities -by means of Mont Carlo simulation.

"L'incertitude comme menace"

by Claude-Olivier Doron

Draft to be published in Deprins, D. (ed.), Parier sur l'incertitude, Bruxelles, Bruylant, 2012

Through an analysis focusing on penal policies and how they deal with "uncertainty", this article wants to... more Through an analysis focusing on penal policies and how they deal with "uncertainty", this article wants to distinguish between different ways of perceiving and governing uncertainty, what we call different "rationalities" dealing with uncertainty.

Stochastic programming models for asset liability management

by Stavros Zenios

Asset and liability management for insurance products with minimum guarantees: The UK case

by Stavros Zenios

Response to Consultation from European Medicines Agency: Good Pharmacovigilance Practice Module V – Risk management systems' (EMA/838713/2011)

by Theo Raynor

This consultation on Risk Management Systems is part of a wider consultation on Good Pharmacovigilance Practice. more This consultation on Risk Management Systems is part of a wider consultation on Good Pharmacovigilance Practice.

I focus my comments on risk minimisation materials and their need to be accessible, readable and understandable for the target readers (whether patients or professionals)

Managing Sarbanes-Oxley Section 404 Compliance in ERP Systems Using Information Security Control Reports

by Robert E. Davis

Public Liability Insurance - One of the most overlooked and little-known insurance essentials

by J Walker

Data from - www.yourpublicliability.org

Public liability insurance protects you from the costs and legal fees of claims if a member of the public is injured... more Public liability insurance protects you from the costs and legal fees of claims if a member of the public is injured as a result of your negligence.

Nuclear Safety: A (Charlie) Brownian Notion

by John Downer

SPAIS Working Paper. Hasn't been through review yet, so no holding it against me.

[The full paper is attached here, but if you click on the link and download it from Bristol instead then some web analytics thing will learn you were interested, and that would probably be good for me in some roundabout sort of way.]

Both the legitimacy and governance of nuclear power plants are premised on formal calculations (probabilistic risk... more Both the legitimacy and governance of nuclear power plants are premised on formal calculations (probabilistic risk assessments) proving that major accidents will not happen. The 2011 meltdowns at Fukushima suggests that these calculations are untrustworthy. Yet the assessment process has retained its legitimacy: the ‘nuclear renaissance’ continues almost unabated, with policymakers invoking the same assessments to rationalize it. This is possible because – as with Three Mile Island and Chernobyl – public accounts of the accident have framed the disaster in ways that ‘redeem’ the legitimacy of nuclear risk assessment as a practice. This paper looks at how. It outlines four basic ‘rites of redemption’: narratives by which accounts distance the failure to predict Fukushima from the credibility of nuclear risk calculations writ-large. It critiques each of these narratives in turn, and argues that they serve to occlude a wider truth about complex technological systems, with perverse consequences regarding public policy.

DORIS downstream service: a support to civil defence autorithies in landslides and subsidence risk management

by Andrea Ciampalini

A. Ciampalini, C. Del Ventisette, S. Moretti, M. Manunta, F. Calò, L. Paglia, F. Ardizzone, F. Guzzetti, M. Rossi, F. Bellotti, D. Colombo, T. Strozzi, U. Wegmueller, O. Mora, F. Sanches.
Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-14188, 2012