Political Behavior

Why Do Citizens Discount the Future? Public Opinion and the Timing of Policy Consequences

by J. Scott Matthews

Co-authored with Alan M. Jacobs
British Journal of Political Science, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000117, Published online by Cambridge University Press 10 May 2012.

It is widely assumed that citizens are myopic, weighing policies’ short-term consequences more heavily than long-term... more It is widely assumed that citizens are myopic, weighing policies’ short-term consequences more heavily than long-term outcomes. Yet no study of public opinion has directly examined whether or why the timing of future policy consequences shapes citizens’ policy attitudes. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test for the presence and mechanisms of time-discounting in the mass public. The analysis yields evidence of significant discounting of delayed policy benefits and indicates that citizens’ policy bias towards the present derives in large part from uncertainty about the long term: uncertainty about both long-run processes of policy causation and long-term political commitments. There is, in contrast, little evidence that positive time-preferences (impatience) or consumption-smoothing are significant sources of myopic policy attitudes.

Political Uncertainty and Policy Trade-offs: An Experimental Investigation

by J. Scott Matthews

Co-authored with Alan M. Jacobs
Paper presented at the April 2012 EGAP Conference, Vancouver, BC, April 27-28, 2012.

Public Policy Dissatisfaction and Political Alienation in Central Europe

by Lukasz Jackiewicz

The following paper was being presented at international conference 1st Copernicus Graduate School General Conference: "Central Europe on the Threshold of the 21st Century. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Challenges in Politics and Society. 

Political and societal changes and developments in Central Europe within last twenty years cause so many questions in... more Political and societal changes and developments in Central Europe within last twenty years cause so many questions in classical fields of political sociology like political behaviour. Dissatisfaction with outcomes of public policy plays a important role to explain intensity of political activism of citizens (Miller 1974, Lockerbie 1993, Oskarson 2007, Norris 2006). Dissatisfaction with public policy in socialism states generated one of the biggest political and social movements in the history of the world called “Solidarity” and lead to transformation of the political system in Poland and at least in Central and Eastern Europe. On the one hand public policies has been democratized, changed and restructured within increased complexity of decision-making and needed skills to understand political process.
Independently from the location of the country the system of decision-making becomes more complex and political accountability more dispersed. On the other hand it is observed in young democracies that a significant part of society is distancing from the state, the state apparatus and political elites (Smolar, 1996, Howard 2002, Jarosz 2005). Because political alienation is a phenomenon of fundamental importance to political system (Schwartz 1973), the main question which comes of that research paper is: if Central Europe states follow the same paths and links between dissatisfaction with
public policy and political alienation like welfare states of Western Europe?
(Dis)Satisfaction with public policy is rooted in social and economic conditions and individual experiences with political and governmental institutions (Powell and Whitten 1993). Real or noticed changes in policies may incite dissatisfaction with public policy. On the one hand sometimes we observed that after radical or fundamental reforms of public institutions the perception of performance of this didn’t change. This case is often observed in new and young democratic systems after collapse of old regime. On the other hand the same public system is still present, but do not deliver what they once did. There are some evidences to suggest that this may be exactly what we have seen in Europe, for example dissatisfaction with public education in Sweden, Germany or France. This leads to a question about differences between Western and Central Europe relating path and link between dissatisfaction with policy outcomes and political alienation?

"Between democracy and management: local government and the dilemma of spoils system. An analysis of the UK model"

by Alessandro Sancino

Data, Methods, and Theoretical Implications

by Rebecca J. Hannagan

Co-authored with Monica Schneider and Jill Greenlee, published in PS: Political Science and Politics, 2012 as part of a symposium on NSF Conference "New Research on Gender and Political Psychology."

The Social Media Basis of Youth Protest Behavior: The Case of Chile

by Sebastián Valenzuela

Co-authored with Arturo Arriagada and Andrés Scherman; published in the 'Journal of Communication,' vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 299-314 (2012)

Protest activity has become a central means for political change in Chile. We examine the association between social... more Protest activity has become a central means for political change in Chile. We examine the association between social media use and youth protest, as well as mediating and moderating mechanisms of this relationship, using survey data collected in Chile in 2010. We found that Facebook use was associated significantly with protest activity, even after taking into account political grievances, material and psychological resources, values, and news media use. The link between overall Facebook use and protest activity was explained by using the social network for news and socializing rather than when it was used for
self-expression. Postmaterialist values and political ideologies were not found to moderate the association between Facebook use and protest.

The Physiology of Political Participation

by Michael Gruszczynski

Coauthored with Amanda Balzer, Carly M. Jacobs, Kevin B. Smith, and John R. Hibbing. Forthcoming in Political Behavior, 2012.

Civic Education and Democratic Backsliding in the Wake of Kenya's Post-2007 Election Violence

by Reynaldo Rojo-Mendoza

Steven E. Finkel, Jeremy Horowitz, and Reynaldo Rojo-Mendoza. The Journal of Politics, Vol. 74, No. 1, January 2012, Pp. 52–65

This article examines two unexplored questions concerning the impact of civic education programs in emerging... more This article examines two unexplored questions concerning the impact of civic education programs in emerging democracies: (1) whether such programs have longer-term effects and (2) whether civic education can be effective under conditions of democratic ‘‘backsliding.’’ We investigate these questions in the context of a large-scale civic education program in Kenya just before the disputed 2007 election that sparked a wave of ethnic clashes and brought the country to the brink of civil war. Analysis of a survey of 1,800 ‘‘treatment’’ and 1,800 ‘‘control’’ individuals shows that the program had significant long-term effects on variables related to civic competence and engagement, with less consistent effects on democratic values. We also find that participants who subsequently were affected by the violence were less likely to adopt negative beliefs about Kenya’s political system, less likely to support the use of ethnic or political violence, and more likely to forgive those responsible for the post-election violence.

O Estado da Arte dos Estudos de Corrupção

by Luiz Fernando Vasconcellos de Miranda

A revisão que nos propomos a fazer tem como foco principal a literatura produzida mais recentemente. O objetivo desta... more A revisão que nos propomos a fazer tem como foco principal a literatura produzida mais recentemente. O objetivo desta revisão tem como objetivos, além de mostrar o estado da arte, também o de mostrar outros trabalhos sobre o assunto para que possamos compreender como os pesquisadores abordam o tema.

O trabalho se divide em sete partes: introdução; como a corrupção tem sido medida; modelos de estudo de corrupção; possíveis soluções para o problema da corrupção; a aplicação da Teoria da Agência ao problema da corrupção; possibilidades de comportamento oportunista e controles internos. Não oferecemos uma conclusão pois o artigo se baseia em um estudo mais amplo, onde há argumentos finais. Em todo caso o artigo se propõe a discutir e refletir sobre seus tópicos.

The Link Between Voting and Life Satisfaction in Latin America

by Matthew Winters

With Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro. 2011. Latin American Politics and Society 53:4 (Winter): 101-26.

What is the relationship between voting and individual life satisfaction in Latin America? While studies of Western... more What is the relationship between voting and individual life satisfaction in Latin America? While studies of Western Europe suggest that voters are happier than nonvoters, this relationship has not been explored in the younger democracies of the developing world, including those of Latin America. Using multilevel regression models to examine individual-level survey data, this study shows a positive correlation between voting and happiness in the region, noting, however, that the relationship is attenuated in those countries that have enforced compulsory voting. We then explore the causal direction of this relationship: while the existing literature points to voting as a possible determinant of individual happiness, it is also possible that happier individuals are more likely to vote. Three different strategies are used to disentangle this relationship. On balance, the evidence suggests that individual happiness is more likely to be a cause rather than an effect of voting in Latin America.

Political Participation and Quality of Life

by Matthew Winters

Theoretical literatures on procedural utility and the psychological benefits of political participation suggest that... more Theoretical literatures on procedural utility and the psychological benefits of political participation suggest that people who participate in political activities will be more satisfied with their lives because of the resulting feelings of autonomy, competence and relatedness. Individual-level data from Latin America
show—in one dataset under study but not in another—a positive and statistically significant relationship between voting and life satisfaction. Variation in desire to vote as measured in Costa Rica, however, suggests that the causal arrow may run
from happiness to voting. The use of multilevel models further reveals a consistent—but untheorized—cross-country negative relationship between enforced compulsory voting and happiness. Only preliminary results are found regarding the relationship between some other forms of political participation and
life satisfaction.

Citizens in polities: the individual and contextual determinants of political membership in Western countries. Madrid: Intituto Juan March de Estudios e …

by Laura Morales

Political participation: exploring the gender gap in Spain

by Laura Morales

South European Society & Politics Special Issue on “Understanding Gender Inequalities in Southern Europe”. (1999) 4 (2)

13 Getting a single message? The Impact of Homogeneous Political Communication Contexts in Spain in a Comparative Perspective

by Laura Morales

In M. Wolf, L. Morales & K. Ikeda, Political Discussion in Modern Democracies in a Comparative Perspective, Routledge, 2010

In this chapter, I examine citizens’ voting decisions with an encompassing approach that takes into consideration the... more In this chapter, I examine citizens’ voting decisions with an encompassing approach that takes into consideration the major intermediation contexts that are likely to have an impact on their final electoral choices, by focusing on their political homogeneity. Starting from the closest intermediation environments in which citizens are embedded (their social networks), the analytical model also incorporates the ‘meso’ level networks and contexts – provided by voluntary organisations and, especially, political parties – as well as the wider communicational environment provided by media messages.

Strategy Versus Understanding

by Hernando Rojas

The Reality and Masquerade behind Bargaining Game over Welfare Policy-Making and Delivery

by Joseph Emmanuel Mullat

JEL: C78, H21
Key words: bargaining, policy, public goods, simulation, taxation, voting

The present analysis addresses the pertinent issue of wealth redistribution in society, affected by three key actors... more The present analysis addresses the pertinent issue of wealth redistribution in society, affected by three key actors partaking in welfare-related taxation. The first actor advocates, in the role of Negotiator No.1, for citizens' legal and moral rights for the delivery of primary needs—the social goods and benefits. The second actor, in the role of Negotiator No.2, proceeds in response to non-primary but vital wants for the delivery of public goods and services. In contrast, the third actor, who represents taxpayers, hereinafter named the Voter, prefers personal consumption to moral and social understanding, and to public activity and services. The goal of the Voter is to reduce—through voting—taxpayers average tax liabilities delivered as individual income taxes at the joint account of negotiators. In doing so, by the threat, emanating from electoral maneuvering, the Voter may place the negotiations at risk of break-down. As a result, the negotiators may walk away from the bargaining table prematurely. Average income taxes are referred throughout the paper as "the welfare-pie." The outcome of simulations supports the for claim that 50% median income is close enough to be considered a realistic choice of poverty line within the variety or rules of the alternating-offers bargaining game and conditions for unanimous consent of voter-citizens.

Constituency Influence on ‘Constituency Members’: The Adaptability of Roles to Electoral Realities in the Canadian Case

by Matthew Kerby

Co-authored with Kelly Blidook, published in Journal of Legislative Studies, 17(3), 2011.

The systematic study of parliamentary questions, their strategic uses and their consequences remains largely... more The systematic study of parliamentary questions, their strategic uses and their consequences remains largely unexplored by political scientists. Drawing on the wider theoretical literature on political roles and political representation, this research examines the relationship between parliamentary questions and political roles in Canada. Using data compiled from the 34th–37th Canadian federal parliaments, a negative binomial regression model of parliamentary question-asking demonstrates that Canadian Members of Parliament are both socialised into their roles and that they rationally adapt their behaviour to meet their political needs particularly with respect to electoral motivations. However, the empirical results emphasise rationally adapted behaviour more than role socialisation.

It’s Not You, It’s Me: Determinants of Voluntary Legislative Turnover in Canada

by Matthew Kerby

Co-authored with Kelly Blidook.
Published in Legislative Studies Quarterly, XXXVI, 4, November 2011, pp. 621-43.

The Canadian federal parliament is unique among Westminster parliamentary democracies due to the unusually high level... more The Canadian federal parliament is unique among Westminster parliamentary democracies due to the unusually high level of voluntary and involuntary MP turnover that occurs at each general election. This article builds on existing research to test the hypothesis that the MP career duration is related to MPs’ expectations about parliamentary roles, insofar as voluntary turnover is concerned. Data on MPs drawn from historical records collected by the Library of Parliament and from surveys conducted in 1993 and 20011 are used to develop an event history model which estimates the hazard of voluntary career termination when different parliamentary roles are taken into consideration. Findings suggest that a number of individual factors play a role in voluntary turnover, most notably that MPs who enter Parliament hoping to affect policy are the most likely to move on.

Trust, Engagement and Stable Diversity In US Cities

by Loren King

I evaluate the democratic ideal of political equality in light of mounting evidence that diversity correlates with... more I evaluate the democratic ideal of political equality in light of mounting evidence that diversity correlates with declines in trust and engagement. I focus on recent work by Robert Putnam, assessing his findings across differences in the demographic composition of communities over time: I draw on U.S. census data and Putnam's Social Capital Benchmark Survey to examine urban and suburban areas with relatively stable residential mixing along lines of race and ethnicity.

Risky Political Changes: rational choice vs prospect theory

by Francesco Passarelli

This paper describes policy alternatives as lotteries, and studies how policy preferences are distorted by the... more This paper describes policy alternatives as lotteries, and studies how policy preferences are distorted by the cognitive anomalies postulated by Prospect Theory. Loss aversion induces a status quo bias. However, due to the reflection effect, the bias is asymmetric: too moderate attitudes toward a good reform or a good candidate, and too low severity toward bad politics. The reflection effect also determines low loyalty in partisan voting and weak concerns about partisan issues. Preferences about nonpartisan issues are independent of wealth because people use the status quo as a reference point. Ambitious platforms have more chances to pass than incremental and detailed changes because people are risk seeking in the realm of losses.
In general, according to Prospect Theory the policy conflict within the society is smoother than under full rationality. Moreover, a pure majority system yields either prolonged conservatism or a radical abandonment of the status quo.