Policy Analysis and Decision Making

El papel de las Comisiones Plenas en la dinámica legislativa en Costa Rica (1998-2010) / The Role of “Comisiones Plenas” in the legislative dynamics in Costa Rica (1998-2010)

by José Andrés Díaz González

Publicado en: "Ruputuras" Vol 1 Nº 2 http://investiga.uned.ac.cr/rupturas/index.php/inicio

Published in: "Ruputuras" Vol 1 Nº 2 http://investiga.uned.ac.cr/rupturas/index.php/inicio

El presente texto pretende aportar en la comprensión de la dinámica de la Asamblea Legislativa de Costa Rica, por... more El presente texto pretende aportar en la comprensión de la dinámica de la Asamblea Legislativa de Costa Rica, por medio del estudio del rol de las Comisiones Plenas en la aprobación
de leyes entre 1998 y 2010. Analizando la distribución y los
cambios de las relaciones de poder provocadas por el transfuguismo parlamentario, se busca determinar los diferentes escenarios presentes en las Comisiones Plenas durante el
periodo de estudio y su impacto en el proceso de toma de decisiones en la Asamblea Legislativa.

This text pretends to contribute to the understanding of Legislative dynamics in Costa Rica, by the study of
“Comisiones Plenas” role in law approval between 1998 and 2010. By the analysis of power relationships distribution and changes derived of parlamentary faithless, the determination of different scenarios present in “Comisiones Plenas” during
the studied period and their impact in the decision making process in the Legislative Assembly is pursued

Collective decision‐making and fission–fusion dynamics: a conceptual framework

by Cedric Sueur

A rule-of-thumb based on social affiliation explains collective movements in desert baboons

by Cedric Sueur

Which Global Prospect to Bet on: Rosy or Gloomy

by Vahid V. Motlagh

Journal of Futures Studies, December 2011, 16(2): 149 - 154

A reasonable metaphor to perceive the nature of upcoming developments is the cycle of seasons. This implies that in... more A reasonable metaphor to perceive the nature of upcoming developments is the cycle of seasons. This implies that in the
Halal-Marien (2011) debate the probabilities of the Rosy and Gloomy scenarios in the long run are more than 70% and less than 30% respectively. Scholars and activists should aim at the inner world of individuals in any global solutions for fast-forwarding to the Rosy scenario. In other words, people
should have and encourage others to adopt an unshakable belief in the possibility of a better world.

On a Habermasian QUEST: Informing Decision Making in the Georgia Basin

by Justin Longo

Inertia and Discounting in the Selection of Socially Responsible Investments: An Experimental Investigation

by Timothy Devinney

Co-authored with P. Auger, G. Dowling, C. Eckert & N. Lin

Socially responsible investment funds (SRIs) have grown dramatically as an investment alternative in most of the... more Socially responsible investment funds (SRIs) have grown dramatically as an investment alternative in most of the developed world. This is an important development from a managerial perspective since the criteria used to qualify for inclusion in these funds could influence the decisions and behaviors of managers with regards to their CSR practices. However, little is known about how investors select SRI funds and how they allocate their investments in these funds.

This study uses a structured experimental approach to determine if the decision-making process of investors to invest in SRIs is consistent with the decision-making used for conventional investments. Our theoretical framework draws on two widely studied concepts in the decision-making and investment literature, namely, inertia and discounting. For our 704 respondents we find that inertia plays a significant role in the selection of SRI funds and that they systemically discount the value of SRIs. Furthermore, the level of discounting of SRIs was positively related to the risk level of the investments. Our results suggest that SRIs need to be designed to cater to the risk/return profiles of investors and that these investors need to be better informed about the performance of SRIs versus conventional investments in order to reduce their systematic discounting.

The relief of vienna in vain: assessing the implications of Turkish EU membership for Council decision-making efficiency

by Gerben Wedekind

Occupational Therapists' decisions about the management of upper limb hypertonicity in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

by Mehdi Rassafiani

Threats Without Threateners? Exploring Intersections of Threats to the Global Commons and National Security

by Erik Nemeth

Co-authored with Gregory F. Treverton and Sinduja Srinivasan

View abstract at:  View abstract at:  http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP360

Science Court: A case study in designing discourse to manage policy controversy

by Mark Aakhus

Aakhus, M. (1999). Science court: A case study in designing discourse to manage policy controversy. Knowledge Technology and Policy, 12(2), 20-37.

doi:10.1007/s12130-999-1020-6

Disagreement among experts is important to scientific progress, but it creates a dilemma for decision-makers who often... more Disagreement among experts is important to scientific progress, but it creates a dilemma for decision-makers who often depend on the authority of those experts to render decisions. When experts disagree there seems to be no good way to incorporate expertise into decision-making. This study examines the "Science Court" proposed to facilitate the resolution of policy controversies involving expert disagreement. Science Court is examined here as a communication tool designed to (1) resolve disputes among experts so that (2) policy decision-making can proceed.The concern lies not so much in Science Court's design but with the rationale about designing communication tools to facilitate policy deliberations reflected in Science Court's design.

CODATO, Adriano. Political elites and decision-making: processes and patterns of division of political and bureaucracy work in the post-oligarchic state.

by Adriano Codato

Paper presented at the 33o. Encontro Anual da ANPOCS, 2009.

O trabalho ocupa-se da vida interna do Departamento Administrativo do estado de São Paulo entre 1939 e 1945. É um... more O trabalho ocupa-se da vida interna do Departamento Administrativo do estado de São Paulo entre 1939 e 1945. É um exame dos procedimentos legislativos da agência criada no Estado Novo e pretende captar, ao lado das atribuições legais, suas funções reais no sistema estatal.

The Use of AHP in Security Policy Decision Making: An Open Office Calc Application

by Irfan Syamsuddin

Journal of Software (ISSN 1796-217X), Vol 5, No 10 (2010): Special Issue: Information Security and Applications, pp. 1162-1169, October 2010

In this paper, we introduce a framework to guide decision makers evaluating information security policy performance.... more In this paper, we introduce a framework to guide decision makers evaluating information security policy performance. It is motivated by lack of adequate decision making mechanism with broader scopes and easy to use for the decision makers. The framework, which adopts Analytic hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology, is developed into a four level hierarchy (goal, criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives) representing different aspects of information security policy. A survey based on AHP methodology was conducted to obtain decision maker preferences. Instead of relying on dedicated AHP software, we prefer to clearly demonstrate the process of AHP calculations by using Open Office Calc in data analysis. The aims are to show the applicability of open source software in handling AHP decision making problem and to help decision makers in understanding AHP data analysis procedures without relying on proprietary software. Results show that decision makers prefer availability of information security as highest priority, followed by confidentiality and integrity. The findings reflect future strategy in order to improve the effectiveness of information security policy in the
organization.

Judgmental Decomposition: When Does It Work?

by J Armstrong

Co-authored with Donald G. MacGregor. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, 10 (1994), 495-906.

We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we... more We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we expected it to help for problems involving extreme and uncertain
values. We first reanalyzed results from two published studies. Decomposition improved accuracy for nine problems that involved extreme and uncertain values, but for six problems with target values that were not extreme and uncertain, decomposition was not more accurate. Next,we conducted experiments involving 10 problems with 280 subjects making 1078 estimates. As hypothesized, decomposition improved accuracy when the problem involved the estimation of extreme and uncertain values. Otherwise, decomposition often produced  ess accurate predictions.

Colliding paths: Trade policy making in Brazil and Argentina during the global financial crisis

by Thomaz Favaro

Final Dissertation: MSc in Comparative Politics (Latin America), Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), UK

This article attempts to account for the trade conflicts between Brazil and Argentina during the global financial... more This article attempts to account for the trade conflicts between Brazil and Argentina during the global financial crisis and its aftermath (mid-2008 - 2010). Drawing on the theoretical framework available for the study of policy making processes in Latin America, this paper will illustrate how domestic determinants and international constraints shaped the policy makers’ behaviour. The argument put forward is that the crisis generated an opportunity for Argentine officials to enhance a national trade strategy of reindustrialisation that was already in place as it strengthened the domestic societal coalition in favour of managed trade and the adverse economic context justified its implementation. Brazil’s somewhat erratic position between cooperation and retaliation was due to constantly changing trade-offs that were perceived differently across the cabinet; retaliation could only take place through circumvention of intra-government veto players. A second aim of this paper is to evaluate the trade disputes’ implications for Mercosur. Intra-bloc managed trade is likely to continue for the near future due to the persistence of structural asymmetries and weak regional institutions. The following PT administration of Dilma Rousseff in Brazil inherited higher costs of cooperation as Argentina’s unilateral measures touched the “pressure point” of Lula’s administration – the balance between a business-friendly trade policy and a PT-led foreign policy. Finally, while negotiations were concentrated at the ministerial level, presidential diplomacy remains a crucial tool for understanding trade policy making within Mercosur due to president’s supremacy vis-à-vis other domestic actors.

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

by J Armstrong

Co-authored with Kesten C. Green.

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to... more In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts who used their unaided judgment were little better than those of novices. Moreover, neither group’s forecasts were much more accurate than simply guessing. The forecasts of experienced experts were no more accurate than the forecasts of those with less experience. The experts were nevertheless confident in the accuracy of their forecasts. Speculating that consideration of the relative frequency of decisions across similar conflicts might improve accuracy, we obtained 89 sets of frequencies from novices instructed to assume there were 100 similar situations. Forecasts based on the frequencies were no more accurate than 96 forecasts from novices asked to pick the single most likely decision. We conclude that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts.
When decision makers ask experts for their opinions, they are likely to overlook other, more useful, approaches.

Improving the understanding of BAM technology for Real-Time Decision Support

by Gabriel Cavalheiro

Business Activity Monitoring (BAM) provides real-time access to critical business performance indicators to improve... more Business Activity Monitoring (BAM) provides real-time access to critical business performance indicators to improve the speed and effectiveness of business operations. Ideally, BAM systems should allow enterprises to improve their operational performance by helping them perceive, understand, and respond to events that have a significant impact on their business processes. Despite the fact that most enterprises have pressing needs to improve their operational performance in highly competitive and dynamic business environments, BAM systems have been poorly utilized. This is mainly due to the fact that there are no formal standards which enumerate what specific features BAM systems must include or theoretical models which support comparative analyses between BAM systems. Indeed selecting a suitable BAM system is a challenge. To improve the ability of enterprises to understand and select a BAM system for their particular decision support needs, a BAM definitional model as well as BAM classification criteria is proposed.

Agua potable y saneamiento

by Alex Ricardo Caldera Ortega

Cuadernillo no. 16, producto de la Estancia de Investigación en la Dirección de Estudios Legislativos: Política y Estado (Instituto Belisariop Domínguez) del Senado de la República, México, julio de 2011.

El presente documento es un análisis del proceso político alrededor de la iniciativa de Ley de Agua Potable y... more El presente documento es un análisis del proceso político alrededor de la iniciativa de Ley de Agua Potable y Saneamiento presentada ante el Senado de la República en febrero de 2009. También se tiene por objeto el contenido de dicha iniciativa en términos de su alcance y repercusiones en torno a crear un marco regulatorio efectivo en este subsector para asegurar no sólo eficiencia y eficacia en la prestación del servicio, sino generar condiciones para conseguir objetivos sociales de equidad en el acceso para todos los mexicanos y sostenibilidad ambiental.

Penalty Notices for Disorder: Influences on Police Decision Making

by Paula Kautt

The Journal of Experimental Criminology. 5(4) 399-428

Coates, Samantha, Paula Kautt and Katrin Mueller-Johnson (2009) “Penalty notices for disorder: Influences on police... more Coates, Samantha, Paula Kautt and Katrin Mueller-Johnson (2009) “Penalty notices for disorder: Influences on police decision-making” The Journal of Experimental Criminology. 5(4) 399-428

This research examined, via a multi-method linked design, the influences over police decision making when disorderly behaviour is being dealt with in the context of a new type of offence disposal, the penalty notice for disorder (PND). The results of a multivariate analysis of the factors predicting the real-life issuance of PNDs to offenders formed the basis of an experiment (using serving police officers as participants) that probed officers’ decision-making processes in disorder scenarios. This approach presents an opportunity to gain insight into how police use the power of arrest when an alternate, less-punitive, option is available.

Decision-Making in the Political and Technical Environments

by David Broniatowski

White Paper co-authored with Annalisa Weigel

Mutual misunderstanding between decision-makers in the political and technical environment leads to programs that... more Mutual misunderstanding between decision-makers in the political and technical environment leads to programs that experience cost overruns, schedule delays and, often, cancellation. This paper compares and contrasts the determinants of decision-making in the technical and political realms, with the intention of demonstrating how these decisions translate to cost, schedule and performance parameters. Studies of those elements that are most salient to the policy maker are informed by the political science literature. In particular, studies of administrative, bureaucratic and Congressional decision-making are instructive in determining how an engineering system interacts with the political realm. So as to lend concreteness to this analysis, we focus on NASA’s interactions with Congress surrounding the Vision for Space Exploration, announced by President Bush on January 14th, 2004.

The Unchosen War of Choice: George W. Bush's Decision for War in Iraq

by Stephen Wertheim

Tempus Vol. 7 No. 1 (Winter 2006): 43-70

George W. Bush never chose, in the meaningful sense of the word, to invade Iraq. He chose to brand Iraq ringleader of... more George W. Bush never chose, in the meaningful sense of the word, to invade Iraq. He chose to brand Iraq ringleader of an "axis of evil," to seek weapons inspections backed by the threat of force and to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops to the region. The administration did debate these steps one-by-one, but it does not appear that Bush ever prefaced those steps, nor followed them, with substantial debate on whether and not merely how to go to war. By August 2002, when Secretary of State Colin Powell met privately with Bush to lay out the costs of war for the first time, Powell did not feel able to admit explicitly his genuine opposition to war, only to insist on U.N. involvement. From there, as the war council debated one step at a time, American options narrowed. Quickly, and almost certainly by January 2003, when Bush approved invasion, war in Iraq became a fait accompli; the decision was over before it was seriously made. Bush had asked neither Powell, Rumsfeld nor Vice President Dick Cheney for an overall recommendation on whether to go to war, perhaps because there never seemed an appropriate time to do so. In the absence of a clear decision—made early, with the benefit of foresight and considering all the factors involved in going to war—the administration's failures of coalition building and postwar occupation planning become intelligible.