Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler
Bülent Köksal, Abdülkadir Civan, "Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler", Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 6, Sayı 24 (Kış), 2009
Bu çalışmada, 67 ülkenin 1980–2005 yılları arasında aldıkları nükleer enerjiye sahip olma kararı ve nükleer santral... more Bu çalışmada, 67 ülkenin 1980–2005 yılları arasında aldıkları nükleer enerjiye sahip olma kararı ve nükleer santral kurulma durumunda nükleer enerjinin toplam enerji içerisindeki payını etkileyen ekonomik, politik, sosyal ve coğrafi faktörler analiz edilmiştir. Örneklemin seçicilik problemleri olması dikkate alınarak yapılan ekonometrik analiz sonucunda kişi başı reel milli gelir seviyesi ile nükleer enerjiye sahip olma olasılığı arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğu, ama bu ilişkinin gelir seviyesi arttıkça zayıfl adığı bulunmuştur. Modelden elde edilen parametre tahminleri kullanılarak yapılan hesaplamalarda, Türkiye’nin nükleer enerjiye geçme ihtimalinin 1990’lardan itibaren düzenli olarak artarak, 2005 sonunda % 45 düzeyine geldiği görülmektedir. TÜİK’in AB ulusal hesap sistemi ESA 95’e uyum için milli gelir hesaplamalarında yaptığı değişiklik sonucu elde edilen değerler kullanılarak yapılan tahminlere göre bu oranın % 60’a ulaştığı görülmektedir. Son olarak tahminler, Türkiye’nin bugün nükleer enerji santraline sahip olması durumunda üreteceği nükleer enerjinin, toplam enerjisinin yaklaşık % 14’le 16’sına karşılık geleceğini göstermektedir.
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Seen by:Turkey’s Nuclear Agenda: Domestic and Regional Implications
Gökhan Bacık, Sammas Salur, "Turkey’s Nuclear Agenda: Domestic and Regional Implications", Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 6, Sayı 24 (Kış), 2009
Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin nükleer enerji ilgili gündemini maddi ve maddi olmayan temeller üzerinden irdelemektedir. Her... more Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin nükleer enerji ilgili gündemini maddi ve maddi olmayan temeller üzerinden irdelemektedir. Her iki temel de Türkiye’nin uluslararası pozisyonunun bölgesel ve iç politika düzlemlerinde ele alınmasını gerektirmektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin iç ve uluslararası düzeyde izlediği politikalardaki değişiklikleri nükleer enerji gibi hassas bir konu üzerinden izlemektedir. Buradaki amaç değişen politikaların ülkeyi nereye taşıdığının görülmek istenmesidir. Bir diğer deyişle, Türkiye’nin uluslararası hukuka saygılı bir nükleer ülke mi yoksa nükleer enerji ihtiyacını iç ve bölgesel anlamdaki liberal gündemiyle buluşturan bir ülke mi olacağı tartışması yazının temelini oluşturmaktadır. Metodolojik anlamda; temel problematik ‘normlar modeli’ üzerinden ele alınmaktadır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’nin bölgesel politikalarının anatomisinin çıkarılması amacıyla komşu ülkelerle ilişkiye geçtiği “yeni kurumsal yaklaşım” ele alınmıştır. Bölge ülkeleriyle ilişkilerde Türkiye’nin nükleer enerjiye ve bölgedeki istikrara duyduğu ihtiyaç kimlik sorunundan bağımsız olarak maddi temeller üzerinden tartışılmıştır.
ALMANYA VE FRANSA’NIN NÜKLEER KARARININ ARDINDAN
Fukuşima Nükleer Santralinde yaşanan kaza hiç şüphesiz nükleer santraller için yeni bir dönem başlattı. Bu denli büyük bir kazanın Japonya gibi güvenilirlik ve şeffaflık olgularıyla dünyada ün yapmış bir ülkede gerçekleşmesi kazanın görkemini arttırdı. Bu olayla birlikte nükleer enerjinin gerekliliği ve sürdürebilirliği yeniden hararetle tartışılır oldu. Özellikle Avrupa’nın iki büyük ülkesi olan Fransa ve Almanya’da hem sembolik değer taşıyan hem de emsal olabilecek nitelikte önemli kararlar alındı. Almanya’nın 2022 yılına kadar nükleer santralleri kapatma kararını duyurmasının ardından dünyanın en büyük ikinci nükleer enerji üreticisi olan Fransa’nın dördüncü nesil nükleer reaktörlerin (EPR) inşasının 2 yıllığına ertelemesi bu kararların en etkili ve ses getirenlerinden. Peki tüm bunlar nükleer enerjinin artık yavaş yavaş rafa kalktığı anlamına mı geliyor?
Diverting Indirect Subsidies from the Nuclear Industry to the Photovoltaic Industry: Energy and Economic Returns
I. Zelenika-Zovko and J. M. Pearce, “Diverting Indirect Subsidies from the Nuclear Industry to the Photovoltaic Industry: Energy and Economic Returns”, Energy Policy 39, pp. 2626–2632 (2011).
Nuclear power and solar photovoltaic energy conversion often compete for policy support that governs economic... more Nuclear power and solar photovoltaic energy conversion often compete for policy support that governs economic viability. This paper compares current subsidization of the nuclear industry with providing equivalent support to manufacturing photovoltaic modules. Current U.S. indirect nuclear insurance subsidies are reviewed and the power, energy and financial outcomes of this indirect subsidy are compared to equivalent amounts for indirect subsidies (loan guarantees) for photovoltaic manufacturing using a model that holds economic values constant for clarity. The preliminary analysis indicates that if only this one relatively ignored indirect subsidy for nuclear power was diverted to photovoltaic manufacturing, it would result in more installed power and more energy produced by mid-century. By 2110 cumulative electricity output of solar would provide an additional 48,600 TWh over nuclear worth $5.3 trillion. The results clearly show that not only does the indirect insurance liability subsidy play a significant factor for nuclear industry, but also how the transfer of such an indirect subsidy from the nuclear to photovoltaic industry would result in more energy over the life cycle of the technologies.
Nuclear Safety: A (Charlie) Brownian Notion
by John Downer
SPAIS Working Paper. Hasn't been through review yet, so no holding it against me.
[The full paper is attached here, but if you click on the link and download it from Bristol instead then some web analytics thing will learn you were interested, and that would probably be good for me in some roundabout sort of way.]
Both the legitimacy and governance of nuclear power plants are premised on formal calculations (probabilistic risk... more Both the legitimacy and governance of nuclear power plants are premised on formal calculations (probabilistic risk assessments) proving that major accidents will not happen. The 2011 meltdowns at Fukushima suggests that these calculations are untrustworthy. Yet the assessment process has retained its legitimacy: the ‘nuclear renaissance’ continues almost unabated, with policymakers invoking the same assessments to rationalize it. This is possible because – as with Three Mile Island and Chernobyl – public accounts of the accident have framed the disaster in ways that ‘redeem’ the legitimacy of nuclear risk assessment as a practice. This paper looks at how. It outlines four basic ‘rites of redemption’: narratives by which accounts distance the failure to predict Fukushima from the credibility of nuclear risk calculations writ-large. It critiques each of these narratives in turn, and argues that they serve to occlude a wider truth about complex technological systems, with perverse consequences regarding public policy.
Fosil, Yenilenebilir ve Nükleer Yakıtların Neopolitik Anlamı –Türkiye’nin Durumu ve Gelecek Alternatifleri
Mert Bilgin, " Fosil, Yenilenebilir ve Nükleer Yakıtların Neopolitik Anlamı –Türkiye’nin Durumu ve Gelecek Alternatifleri ", Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 5, Sayı 20 (Kış), 2009
Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yükselen enerji ihtiyacına koşut olarak önemini artıran arz güvenliği ve kaynak çeşitliliği... more Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yükselen enerji ihtiyacına koşut olarak önemini artıran arz güvenliği ve kaynak çeşitliliği hususlarını, enerji tüketim trendini, fiyatlardaki gelişmeleri ve çevresel faktörleri ele almak suretiyle incelemektedir. Öncelikle küresel enerji kullanımının mevcut durumu ve gelecekteki eğilimi, petrol fiyatlarının seyri ve sektörü etkileyen çevresel etmen ve kıstaslar ortaya konmaktadır. Akabinde Türkiye’nin bu çerçevede nasıl bir enerji tüketim kompozisyonuna sahip olduğu ve olacağı, petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklıktan nasıl etkilendiği, başta Kyoto olmak üzere çevresel kıstasların nelere yol açtığı ve açacağı, OECD ülkelerinin ortalamasına atıfla tanımlanmaktadır. Bu bölümün ardından petrol, doğal gaz, yenilenebilir ve nükleer enerjinin önemiyle, hidrokarbon sahibi ülkeler bir yanda, artan oranlarda enerjiye ihtiyaç duyan ülkeler diğer yanda olmak üzere, arz ve talep odaklı baskının jeopolitik anlamı ortaya konmaktadır. Çalışma, değişen şartlarda bütünsel bir stratejik yaklaşımın önemine dikkat çekerek, yeni enerji düzeni siyasetini neopolitik olarak kavramsallaştırmaktadır. Hemen ardından gelen bölüm, Türkiye için arz güvenliği ve kaynak çeşitliliği hususlarını neopolitik çerçevede fırsat ve tehditlere atıfla değerlendirmektedir. Sırasıyla petrol ve gaz, biyoyakıtlar ve nükleer enerjinin Türkiye nezdindeki neopolitik anlamı, güvenlik ve kalkınma hususlarına atıfla ortaya konmaktadır.
24 views
Seen by:Increasing PV Velocity by Reinvesting the Nuclear Energy Insurance Subsidy into Large Scale Solar Photovoltaic Production
J.M. Pearce, “Increasing PV Velocity by Reinvesting the Nuclear Energy Insurance Subsidy into Large Scale Solar Photovoltaic Production”, Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), 2009 34th IEEE, pp.1338-1343, 7-12 June 2009.
As the debate over the future of energy grows, often nuclear energy production is pitted against solar photovoltaic... more As the debate over the future of energy grows, often nuclear energy production is pitted against solar photovoltaic energy conversion. There is a widespread belief that solar cannot compete with nuclear energy economically without government subsidies. The continued and widespread belief in the economic viability of nuclear energy, however, is predicated in part on government-mandated limitation on the liability of the nuclear industry. To demonstrate the magnitude of this nuclear energy insurance subsidy, this paper considers a shift in policy to reinvest only the premiums of the nuclear energy insurance subsidy into large scale solar photovoltaic production. The current insurance subsidy for a single nuclear power plant in the U.S. is reviewed along with the investment requirements for a one GigaWatt thin film amorphous silicon solar photovoltaic manufacturing plant. The available power and energy are then compared for an ensemble of nuclear power plants and solar photovoltaic arrays produced by the manufacturing plants over a nuclear plant life cycle. The startling results show that only the premiums for nuclear energy insurance would result in both more installed power and energy produced by mid-century if these funds were invested in large scale photovoltaic manufacturing. This study clearly shows that policies to transfer the nuclear energy insurance subsidy to large-scale manufacturing would increase the PV velocity to push the PV industry over 1 TW in under fifty years.
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Seen by:Thermodynamic limitations to nuclear energy deployment as a greenhouse gas mitigation technology
Joshua M. Pearce, "Thermodynamic Limitations to Nuclear Energy Deployment as a Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technology", International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy and Ecology 2(1), pp. 113-130, 2008.
To both replace fossil-fuel-energy use and meet the future energy demands, nuclear energy production would have to... more To both replace fossil-fuel-energy use and meet the future energy demands, nuclear energy production would have to increase by 10.5% per year from 2010 to 2050. This large growth rate creates a cannibalistic effect, where nuclear energy must be used to supply the energy for future nuclear power plants. This study showed that the limit of ore grade to offset greenhouse gas emissions is significantly higher than the purely thermodynamic limit set by energy payback times found in the literature. In addition, any use of nuclear energy directly contributes heat to the Earth, which the Earth must radiate into space by raising its temperature to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium. This is a relatively small effect, but as energy consumption grows it must be considered for a world powered by nuclear energy. The results of this study demand modesty in claims of ‘emission-free nuclear energy’ as a panacea for global climate destabilisation.
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Seen by: and 1 moreBoron Carbide Deposition on Urania and Urania-Gadolinia Fuels
Nuclear Technology volume 135 issue 3 2001
H. Dışbudak, ibrahim uslu, A.Y. Bilgesu, G. Gündüz
Pure uranium dioxide and uranium dioxide-gadolinium oxide (5 and 10%) fuels used in this study were prepared by the... more Pure uranium dioxide and uranium dioxide-gadolinium oxide (5 and 10%) fuels used in this study were prepared by the solution-gelation (sol-gel) technique. The fuels were then coated with boron carbide by chemical vapor deposition. Boron carbide was produced from the reaction of carbon tetrachloride and boron trichloride with excess hydrogen, in a tube furnace at 1000, 1100, and 1175 deg. C. The Fourier transform infrared data of boron carbide deposited on a silica glass were in agreement with the ones in the literature. The experiments showed that the composition of the coating changed with deposition temperature. There was boron-rich coating at low-temperature deposition, and carbon-rich coating at high-temperature deposition. The morphology and the thickness of the coating have been investigated by using scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction spectroscopy.
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Seen by:The Production, Characterization, and Neutronic Performance of Boron Nitride Coated Uranium Dioxide Fuel
ibrahim Uslu, Ü. Çolak, M. Tombakoğlu, G. Gündüz
The fuel pellets produced by sol-gel technique were coated with boron nitride (BN). This was achieved through chemical... more
The fuel pellets produced by sol-gel technique were coated with boron nitride (BN). This was achieved through chemical vapor deposition (CVD) using boron trichloride and ammonia.
Mixing and chemical reaction take place at a temperature around 875 K. The coated samples were then sintered at 1600 K. Thermal reactor physics lattice-cell code WIMS-D/4 was used in the neutronic analysis of CANDU fuel bundle to observe the neutronic performance of the coated fuel. Three types of fuel were considered; fuel made of natural uranium, slightly enriched uranium (SEU, enrichment: 0.82 % U-235), and SEU with various BN coatings. The burnup calculations showed that feasible coating thickness is between 1 to 2 micrometer.
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Seen by:Radiological Considerations in Nuclear Ship Visits
Turkish Journal of Nuclear Science 16(1989) pp:43-51
ibrahim Uslu, G.G. Yülek. G. Aksu
keywords: nuclear ship radiological consideration
In this study radiological aspects of nuclear ships has been reviewed and the results of some measurements of early... more In this study radiological aspects of nuclear ships has been reviewed and the results of some measurements of early warning system stations and radionuclide concentration in sea water have been given and discussed from the data during one of the nuclear ship visit of a Turkish Port.
Analysis of the Consolidated Fuel Treatment Center Nuclear Reprocessing Initiative
by Kyle Gracey
Biris, Octavia, Kyle Gracey, Katy Huff, Wai Keong Ng; for the course Energy and Energy Policy, University of Chicago; June 2008
The next nuclear wave: renaissance of proliferation risk?
Global Change, Peace & Security 24(1) February 2012
This article examines the extent of the so-called ‘civil nuclear renaissance’ and the danger it poses to the integrity... more This article examines the extent of the so-called ‘civil nuclear renaissance’ and the danger it poses to the integrity of the international non-proliferation regime. It also explores the drivers behind the resurgent interest in nuclear energy, as well as the arguments against increased reliance on nuclear power. The article argues that growing interest in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy – even when tempered by strong safety, environmental, economic and security concerns – poses a real challenge to global non-proliferation objectives, a challenge exacerbated by the contradiction at the heart of the non proliferation treaty architecture. However, the article does not accept the view that civil nuclear capability will inexorably lead to proliferation. Rather, it finds that motive is as central as capability in determining the likelihood of proliferation, and highlights the difficulties of safeguarding against future intentions. Following a brief discussion of the Southeast Asian and North Asian contexts, the paper concludes with a short discussion of how proliferation risks stemming from an increase in nuclear energy might be mitigated.
Nucleare e mass media in Italia
in "Problemi dell'Informazione", 35, 2010: 177-192
(Nuclear energy and mass media in Italy)
The paper examines the difficult relationship between science,... more
(Nuclear energy and mass media in Italy)
The paper examines the difficult relationship between science, mass media and public opinion, referring to nuclear energy issue. Recovering the Morin's notion of "partecipatory democracy", the article try to define a more objective method for public communication of science in the media.
History of uranium and nuclear policy in Italy (1946-1965)
In: History of Research in Mineral Resources, edited by J. E. Ortiz, O. Puche, I. Rábano & L. F. Mazadiego, Cuadernos del Museo Geominero, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, 13: 331-336.
In 1952, within CNR (National Research Council), National Committee for Nuclear Research (CNRN) was founded in Italy,... more In 1952, within CNR (National Research Council), National Committee for Nuclear Research (CNRN) was founded in Italy, with the main purpose of acquiring and developing knowledge about peaceful applications of nuclear energy. In 1960, CNRN became a public self-governing institution, separated from CNR and changing the name into CNEN (National Committee for Nuclear Energy). During the first period of establishment, CNEN policy choices undoubtedly reflected optimism and triumphalism followed by the first United Nations Conference on peaceful use of nuclear power, held in Geneva in 1955. The huge interest towards different nuclear applications was certainly driven by strategic needs related to industrial and economic development of industrialized countries. At the beginning of the “industrial atomic age”, nuclear industry was surely an instrument of technological “transfer” and innovation; it didn’t represent an alternative to fossil fuels. Mining explorations were among the earlier activities undertaken in the CNRN foundation, mainly since 1961. A regional scale geochemical prospecting reconnaissance for uranium in several alpine regions and in different part of Central-Southern Italy was realized. These explorations represented undoubtedly an effort to manage an energy policy not entirely dependent on the international context and raw materials imports. Considering this historical outlook, the paper will try to trace the initial stages of uranium policy and studies in Italy. An interest that led to open a university teaching in “Geology of Uranium” at the Polytechnic School of Milan and to establish a scientific and technical discipline with its own handbooks,reviews and popular publications.
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Seen by:Fukushima : limites anthropologiques à la complexité et risque d'effondrement sociétal
Dossier N°12 : Fukushima, fin de l’Anthropocène ?
Entropia - ISSN 1954-2437 (http://www.entropia-la-revue.org/)
Printemps 2012 (à paraître)
Aujourd'hui, à l'ère de l'Anthropocène, le recours à l'énergie nucléaire pour la production d'électricité est de loin... more Aujourd'hui, à l'ère de l'Anthropocène, le recours à l'énergie nucléaire pour la production d'électricité est de loin le système énergétique le plus complexe jamais entrepris par l'homme. Or, les accidents de Fukushima ont démontré l'incapacité de l'humanité à contrôler ce système complexe.
129 views
Seen by:The Economic Potential of Future Nuclear Build in the UK
MSc dissertation for 'The Physics and Technology of Nuclear Reactors' course at the University of Birmingham.
This presents an economic analysis of next generation nuclear reactors under consideration in the UK, starting with a... more
This presents an economic analysis of next generation nuclear reactors under consideration in the UK, starting with a review of cost estimates for typical Generation II reactors, the Westinghouse AP1000 and Advanced CANDU ACR-700 designs. From these, the levelised cost of electricity from each reactor is estimated for UK conditions during 2004-06. A financial appraisal is presented for each design, along with a discussion of their commercial potential in the UK electricity market.
It also considers the operation of an electrolysis and hydrogen storage plant, suitable as a replacement petrol pump for refuelling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The capital cost of a refuelling plant is estimated with varied storage and electrolyser capacity. The optimal capacity is considered with strategic purchase of electricity on the spot market to minimise operating costs. The optimal capacity and potential profit is calculated under 2005/06 market conditions, and under two future scenarios, with heavy fossil fuel dependance and increased nuclear capacity.

