Monetary Economics

SignsofInflation2012

by Gilles Bransbourg

The history of inflation through its objects, a short cut through the ANS exhbition at the FED of NY. Published by the... more The history of inflation through its objects, a short cut through the ANS exhbition at the FED of NY. Published by the ANS magazine. Illustrated by some of the exhibited objects.

Heterogeneity in price setting behavior, spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms

by Carlo Migliardo

pubblished in "Economic Modelling" elsevier vol. 29 (4) (2012) pp. 1106-1118

In this paper, we analyze firms' pricing behavior using a full informative micro dataset that accounts for a large... more In this paper, we analyze firms' pricing behavior using a full informative micro dataset that accounts for a large part of Italian firms. In our view, “the black boxes” to examine are the relations between price setting, market structure and spatial disparities. The paper aims to extend the empirical literature in several directions. A first goal of the research is to investigate the link between heterogeneity in price changes and spatial dependence. Besides, we compare the price dynamics among sectors, namely manufacturing vs. service. It is irrefutable that prices stickiness is linked to good market rigidities. Consequently, these issues have extremely important policy implications; for instance, the Monetary Authority considers the macro price indexes in order to determine the right policy to stabilize the economy and to improve social welfare. However, the Central Bank does not distinguish the likely aggregation bias source from the cross sector–region–country heterogeneities.

Overall, the purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of survey data that allows us to collect important aspects for Economic Policy analysis, which could not be drawn from analysis with “mesoeconomic” or aggregate data. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that price dynamic heterogeneity across geographical areas, as well as disparities across industries, are statistically significant in our microeconometric models. Indeed, the probability that industries in the backward areas change prices is 30% less than in more developed regions (Northeast). In addition, we find that sectoral diversity counts especially across goods and service industries, even if this outcome is not always robust across microeconometric specifications.

The Value of Wothless Money

by Gilles Bransbourg

This is a review of the latest provisional exhbition of the American Numismatic Society at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, 'Signs of Inflation'.

Rules Versus Discretion Under Asymmetric Shocks

by Pasquale Foresti

The Guadalajara Mint and Pacific Trade, 1814-1821: Regional Consequences of Monetary Fragmentation during the Mexican Wars of Independence

by Manuel A. Bautista González

Ponencia presentada en la Sesión 6, "Rumblings in the Spanish Empire" en la Asia Pacific Economic and Business HIstory Conference 2011, Berkeley, CA, febrero 18-20, 2011.

Paper prepared for Session 6, “Rumblings in the Spanish Empire” at the Asia-Pacific Economic and Business History Conference 2011, Berkeley, CA, February 18-20, 2011.

This paper is about the provisional mint of Guadalajara, old capital of the important and dynamic region known as... more This paper is about the provisional mint of Guadalajara, old capital of the important and dynamic region known as Nueva Galicia, located in western New Spain (Mexico). I study the impact of new and increasingly autonomous monetary policies on trade circuits in Nueva Galicia, amidst the chaos of the Mexican war of independence that began in 1810. I claim that the provisional mint of Guadalajara was crucial for merchants involved in long-distance trade during the 1810s, as it supplied them liquidity in an economy affected by monetary scarcity. After summarizing the institutional history of the regional mint of Guadalajara, I reconstruct coinage series based on accounting books from 1814 to 1821 to determine their level, their relative importance as compared to the production of the Mexico City mint as well as their denomination. Surviving records allow me to analyze the geographic origins of silver brought into the mint, its temporality and quality from 1814 to 1818. Afterwards, I trace the network of wealthy merchants from Guadalajara, Panama and Philippines who owned and brought silver into the mint from 1814 to 1821 and describe commercial circuits linking Guadalajara to Pacific trade during wartime. Concluding remarks relate the results of this study to current debates on the monetary system of New Spain during the Spanish American Age of Revolution. This is an inquiry into the monetary and trade history of New Spain during the wars of independence from a regional perspective.

Euro-Area Nations Await Better Days That Won't Come

by Gilles Bransbourg

Published by Bloomberg News, March 23, 2012, as a guest commentary.

The European debt crisis has only started to unfold as European leaders have opted for a 1930s' style deflation. The... more The European debt crisis has only started to unfold as European leaders have opted for a 1930s' style deflation. The way the Greek case has been handled means private investors, including the average European savers, should avoid the area. Essentially, the more the ECB steps-in in its support, the bigger the final losses will be. Younger Europeans will finally pick-up the remaining tab left by the baby-boomer generation.

Time for a transformation towards/into my Excellent Monetary System and Society

by Wilfred Berendsen

This is a draft version of an article about the real cause of debt crisis and the solution. It also partly discusses that inflation is NOT an argument against creation of money without debt creation. Which is basically one of main features of my innovation for the money system. But the ways how money is created is also important just like who is allowed to do so. And the aims and possibilities. This paper discusses the possibilities and aims and also what is wrong with current monetary policies and current monetary system. And the fact that my innovation for the money system, leading to the excellent monetary system, can and will not only solve the debt crisis or financial crisis worldwide, but is also a tool for great additional possibilities. Like cancelling really all of taxes worldwide, detaching/decoupling income from wages and working (which is really needed given growing efficiency and creating a situation where unemployment is neither negative nor a problem anymore) and creating a situation with enough money for anything that is really desirable to maintain. Like healthcare, eldery care, caring for the weak in society. But also additional improvements in society since money is not a problem - or better not a constraint- anymore in the Excellent Monetary System initiated by me. This paper is still a draft but should make clear that the idea of my innovation from the money system origins from me, just like the understanding about real causes of the crisis - insanity/incompleteness of current money system- and the real solution. Also this paper should complement my book on amazon about the crisis and solution. I already mentioned the possibilities of my innovation there but did not label the situation that will unfold then as being the Excellent Monetary System initiated and created by me. Whatever, this is my creation and will drastically improve future society. First the debt crisis can and will be solved with it. And after that, the innovation can be used within the Excellent Monetary System and society to create a much better future for humankind and fix some of current problems and prevent future ones. This draft will be perfectionized and then i will forward it , submit it, to Journal of Political Economy (JPE).

Reframing the euro vs. dollar debate through the perceptions of financial elites in key dollar-holding countries

by Miguel Otero-Iglesias

Paper published in Review of International Political Economy (co-authored with Federico Steinberg), 2012.

This paper proposes a theoretically-informed and empirically-grounded cognitive approach to analyse how financial... more This paper proposes a theoretically-informed and empirically-grounded cognitive approach to analyse how financial elites from China, the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Brazil interpret the euro vs. dollar debate. At the theoretical level, we argue that the debate should be reframed in order to capture not only the material, but also the ideational footprint of the euro, as well as to better conceptualise change in the International Monetary System (IMS). Our empirical work shows that the euro is perceived by financial elites as a useful diversification tool to avoid over-exposure to dollar weaknesses. However, despite its appeal as a valuable investment alternative, the European currency has a series of structural flaws that prevent it from substituting the dollar as the main international currency. Therefore, in purely material terms, the euro-sceptical literature is correct. However, we also find that the hitherto material inroads of the euro, while limited, have been sufficient to ideationally convince these elites that a multicurrency IMS is possible and might be more stable (and therefore preferable) to current dollar unipolarity. Therefore, the euro-optimist literature is far from wrong when it argues that the creation of the euro represents a challenge to the greenback, for it could be a stepping stone towards the formation of a multipolar IMS.

Imbalances causing the financial and debt crisis

by Wilfred Berendsen

Keynes: revolutionary or radical

by Brendan Sheehan

Three-quarters of a century ago the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes was... more Three-quarters of a century ago the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes was published. This anniversary provides an opportunity to reflect on Keynes’ most significant contributions to economics. The paper has three key objectives. The first is to demonstrate how Keynes departs from the classical orthodoxy – both theoretically and in policy terms. The paper carefully explains classical macro-economic theory – especially the special assumptions on which it relies – and the conservative policy agenda that it generates. The second objective is to introduce Keynes’ revolutionary approach to macroeconomics – formulated round the principle of effective demand - and the potentially radical policy proposals he recommends. The study of effective demand provides insights about how the actual economy operates, once the special classical assumptions are relaxed. In policy terms, Keynes addresses three urgent priorities: curing an economic depression, preventing war-time inflation and promoting post-war prosperity over the long-term. The final objective is to critically assess Keynes’ credentials as a theoretical revolutionary and policy radical. This assessment concludes that Keynes is a mild theoretical revolutionary, content to make good the deficiencies in classical orthodoxy. He neither moves beyond the paradigm of universal scarcity nor appreciates the ever-present threat of under-consumption. He is also a timid radical; his most rebellious instincts are restricted to proposing socialised investment and tight capital controls.

Keynes: revolutionary or radical

by Brendan Sheehan

Three-quarters of a century ago the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes was... more Three-quarters of a century ago the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes was published. This anniversary provides an opportunity to reflect on Keynes’ most significant contributions to economics. The paper has three key objectives. The first is to demonstrate how Keynes departs from the classical orthodoxy – both theoretically and in policy terms. The paper carefully explains classical macro-economic theory – especially the special assumptions on which it relies – and the conservative policy agenda that it generates. The second objective is to introduce Keynes’ revolutionary approach to macroeconomics – formulated round the principle of effective demand - and the potentially radical policy proposals he recommends. The study of effective demand provides insights about how the actual economy operates, once the special classical assumptions are relaxed. In policy terms, Keynes addresses three urgent priorities: curing an economic depression, preventing war-time inflation and promoting post-war prosperity over the long-term. The final objective is to critically assess Keynes’ credentials as a theoretical revolutionary and policy radical. This assessment concludes that Keynes is a mild theoretical revolutionary, content to make good the deficiencies in classical orthodoxy. He neither moves beyond the paradigm of universal scarcity nor appreciates the ever-present threat of under-consumption. He is also a timid radical; his most rebellious instincts are restricted to proposing socialised investment and tight capital controls.

Fides et Pecunia Numerata: Chartalism and Metallism in the Roman World. Part 1: The Republic

by Gilles Bransbourg

This paper argues that the contrasted degrees of fiduciarity and metallism of the base coinage between the Greek... more This paper argues that the contrasted degrees of fiduciarity and metallism of the base coinage between the Greek states and Rome were essentially the result of practical considerations linked to its vulnerability to counterfeiting, rather than the result of different conceptions of the idea of money. Similarly, the gradual decline of the weight of Roman bronze coinage during the later Republic, traditionally explained as the consequence of a growing acceptance of fiduciary money, was essentially the mechanical product of a fall in the market value of silver as a commodity. The consequence of this reading ultimately leads to a reassessment of some the financial and political developments of the later Republic.

Inflation

by Wilfred Berendsen

This is a draft file argumenting that inflation is imbalance. Which is a problem in case of a closed or limitly growing money supply. But not in case of a complete and sane money system. Our current money system is incomplete; it HAS to be supplemented with my innovation for the money system (see among others my book on amazon.com). That will mean the end of debt crisis but also real great growths and possibilities of entities in our society.

A falha na articulação entre real e financeiro na economia brasileira: reflexões sobre o impacto nas firmas, competitividade e desenvolvimento tecnológico

by Elson Rodrigo Souza Santos

Co-authored Armando Dalla Costa
Preliminary and incomplete version

This work explores the relationship between the economy and financial in the Brazil. We start from the assumption that... more This work explores the relationship between the economy and financial in the Brazil. We start from the assumption that the fault is identified in the high degree of difficulty in self-financing and financing of new, small and medium firms have access to channels to obtain funds for investment. The findings suggest that the fault lies in not finding a financial structure that fits with national peculiarities and industrial policy, contributing to low competitiveness and technological development of Brazilian industry. However, throughout the 2000s, there is evidence of the construction of a new institutional arrangement through the strengthening of public credit and the cash flows, benefit from the use of financial products and own resources for financing investment projects. In parallel, indicating that large firms solved the financing problem, but the arrangement needs to be improved, be better integrated with industrial policy and reduce the financial repression of other firms.

The Signs of Inflation - Press Release

by Gilles Bransbourg

The Signs of Inflation (Exhibition)

by Gilles Bransbourg

Venue: the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, from March 29, 2012 onward.

The exhibition will display 200 monetary objects lent by the American Numismatic Society, dating from the 7th century... more The exhibition will display 200 monetary objects lent by the American Numismatic Society, dating from the 7th century BC to current days. The rellability of money and the conditions for monetary dislocation are explored throughout the 5 continents monetary systems, with a focus on ancient Rome, pre-modern and modern France, 1862-65 and 1930s' US, 1923-Germany, 1946-Hungary, 1992-93 Yugoslavia, 19th and 20th Africa.

Crise europeia, uniões monetárias e lições para Brasil

by Elson Rodrigo Souza Santos

Preliminary and incomplete version. Will be improved

In the early 2000s, the euro was rising a milestone in the consolidation of the European Union (EU) toward increased... more In the early 2000s, the euro was rising a milestone in the consolidation of the European Union (EU) toward increased integration. In alongside, the euro emerged as a potential competitor for the dollar as reserve currency in international arena. After a decade the economic and institutional problems were not solved, revealing weaknesses in the architecture of the EU and eurozone with American Crisis of 2008. However, even then, in Brazil are frequent official statements as President Lula about the importance of single money for the countries of South America on promote of regional integration. What’s looks like a political rhetoric than a realistic strategy towards integration.

Het Excellente Monetairy systeem- DE oplossing voor de schuldencrisis

by Wilfred Berendsen

This is a Dutch short overview or article about my innovation for the money system that will lead to the Excellent Monetary System. It gives some additional informations about the immense possibilities and great situation that will be existent as soon as my innovation for the money system is applied in practise. From that moment on, more and more possibilities for society and our universes will unfold

This article gives the real reason of the debt crisis and economic crisis worldwide. It gives the basic idea of the... more This article gives the real reason of the debt crisis and economic crisis worldwide. It gives the basic idea of the innovation. And places it in broader perspectives.

Hegemonic Currencies During the Crisis: The Dollar Versus the Euro in a Cartalist Perspective

by David Fields

Co-authored with Dr. Matias Vernengo

This paper suggests that the dollar is not threatened as the hegemonic international currency, and that most analysts... more This paper suggests that the dollar is not threatened as the hegemonic international currency, and that most analysts are incapable of understanding the resilience of the dollar, not only because they ignore the theories of monetary hegemonic stability or what, more recently, has been termed the geography of money; but also as a result of an incomplete understanding of what a monetary hegemon does. The hegemon is not required to maintain credible macroeconomic policies (i.e., fiscally contractionary policies to maintain the value of the currency), but rather to provide an asset free of the risk of default. It is argued that the current crisis in Europe illustrates why the euro is not a real contender for hegemony in the near future.

L’économie politique de l’empathie

by Stefan Collignon

L’empathie est une forme de relation humaine qui est fondée sur la capacité imaginée de ressentir les émotions d’un... more L’empathie est une forme de relation humaine qui est fondée sur la capacité imaginée de ressentir les émotions d’un autre. Pour être universelle, cette capacité doit être mutuelle, ce qui implique une certaine égalité entre les hommes. Mais comme cette égalité n’a pas toujours été reconnue. Dans la société traditionnelle, l’individu autonome n’existe pas ; l’homme appartient à la communauté. La sensibilité individuelle est soumise à la hiérarchie communautaire. Par contre, le « moi moderne » est celui d’un individu autonome qui a besoin de l’empathie comme passerelle d’un individu à l’autre. Je propose que cette compréhension de l’empathie soit une conséquence de l’émergence de l’économie monétaire moderne, car l’économie monétaire diffuse le système normatif des relations contractuelles à travers toute la société. Par conséquent, les normes de la modernité – liberté, égalité, et empathie – s’imposent dans un environnement qui est de plus en plus dominé par l’économie monétaire. C’est donc la croissance de l’économie monétaire qui universalise l’empathie.