Longitudinal Research

Longitudinal Research at the Turn of the Century: Searching for The Mexican American People

by Vilma Ortiz

Age, Period and Cohort Effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany: An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992–2009)

by Bram Vanhoutte

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system.... more Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and this article first expands previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age–period–cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992–2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.

The natural history of college smoking: Trajectories of daily smoking during the freshman year

by Brian Flaherty

Cerebral microbleeds and long-term cognitive outcome: longitudinal cohort study of stroke clinic patients.

by Maxwell Benjamin

Gregoire, S. M., Smith, K., Jager, H. R., Benjamin, M., Kallis, C., Brown, M. M., Cipolotti, L., & Werring, D. J. Cerebrovascular Diseases (2012).

Background: Vascular cognitive impairment causes significant disability in the elderly and is common following... more Background: Vascular cognitive impairment causes significant disability in the elderly and is common following ischaemic stroke. Although the underlying mechanisms and prognostic factors remain unclear, small vessel diseases are known to contribute. Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) manifestation of small vessel diseases and may contribute to vascular cognitive impairment, particularly frontal-executive functions. We hypothesized that baseline CMBs would predict long-term cognitive outcome, specifically frontal-executive function. Methods: A cohort of consecutive patients found to have CMBs when first referred to a stroke clinic, together with a CMB-free control group matched for age, gender and clinicoradiological characteristics, were invited for follow-up cognitive assessment a median of 5.7 years later. MRI and detailed cognitive assessment (including current intellectual function, verbal memory, visual memory, naming skills, perceptual functions, frontal-executive functions; and speed and attention) were performed at baseline and follow-up. Patients were classified (blinded to MRI and clinical data) as impaired or unimpaired in each domain using predefined criteria. We compared the prevalence of cognitive impairments in each domain at baseline and follow-up and investigated clinical and radiological predictors [including baseline CMBs and white matter changes (WMCs)] of frontal-executive cognitive impairment. Results: Of the original cohort of 55 patients, 13 died without follow-up. Twenty-six of the surviving patients (9 with, 17 without baseline CMBs) agreed to follow-up neuropsychological assessment; 21 of these patients had a repeat MRI scan. The median number of cognitive domains impaired increased, regardless of the presence of baseline CMBs (with baseline CMBs: median 3, range 0-5 at follow-up vs. median 2, range 0-2 at baseline, p = 0.016; without CMBs: median 1.0, range 0-5 at follow-up vs. median 0, range 0-5 at baseline, p = 0.035). Frontal-executive impairment at follow-up was more prevalent in patients with baseline CMBs than in those without (78 vs. 29%, p = 0.038). The presence of baseline CMBs predicted frontal-executive impairment at follow-up (OR 8.40, 95% CI 1.27-55.39, p = 0.027). Fifty percent of patients with CMBs versus 8% of patients without baseline CMBs developed new CMBs (p = 0.047). The severity of WMCs increased; the difference was statistically significant only in patients without baseline CMBs (p = 0.027). There were no new cortical infarcts. Conclusion: In stroke clinic patients, CMBs are consistently associated with frontal-executive impairment; baseline CMBs are associated with frontal-executive impairment at follow-up after 5.7 years. The presence of CMBs has prognostic relevance for long-term cognitive outcome in stroke clinic patients, and may help to optimally target preventive strategies in individuals at highest risk of cognitive decline.

Assessing the reliability of curriculum-based measurement: An application of latent growth modeling.

by Lee Branum-Martin

Yeo, S., Kim, D., Branum-Martin, L., Wayman, M. M., & Espin, C. A. (2012) “Assessing the reliability of curriculum-based measurement: An application of latent growth modeling.” Journal of School Psychology 50(2), 275-292.

“You’re never finished.” Swedish teachers on commitment, professional struggle and positioning during 15 years of changed conditions

by Anneli Frelin

co-authored with Göran Fransson. Presented at the NERA conference, Copenhagen.

This paper presents some preliminary results from a study inquiring into factors that contribute to teacher retention... more This paper presents some preliminary results from a study inquiring into factors that contribute to teacher retention and commitment. The data presented are part of a larger project financed by the Swedish National Science Council: "Crossroads - a longitudinal study of choices and values in teachers’ work trajectories". It builds from a unique material: 87 graduates from one Teacher Education program in Sweden were interviewed by mail at eight occasions regarding their work and lives, spanning from their graduation in 1993 through their careers until 2008. The purpose of the project is to describe, understand and explain the specific circumstances, attitudes and strategies that make teachers stay, leave or return to the teaching profession. The aim of this paper is to tentatively map key characteristics of teacher experiences during 15 years.

Trust and Volunteering: Selection or Causation? Evidence From a 4 Year Panel Study

by Rene Bekkers

Participation in voluntary associations is often believed to make citizens more trusting of others. This paper reports... more Participation in voluntary associations is often believed to make citizens more trusting of others. This paper reports longitudinal analyses of a time intensive form of participation—volunteering—and generalized social trust using data from three waves of the Giving in the Netherlands Panel Study spanning 4 years (2002–2006; n = 692) refuting this belief. Trust is relatively stable over a 4 year period (0.73). Changes in volunteering are not related to changes in trust. Trust is higher among volunteers mainly because of selective attrition: persons with low trust are more likely to quit volunteering.

Researching the benefits of learning: the persuasive power of longitudinal studies

by John Field

Published in 'London Review of Education'

Recent years have witnessed considerable growth of research on the benefits of adult learning. Much of this draws on... more Recent years have witnessed considerable growth of research on the benefits of adult learning. Much of this draws on evidence from large scale longitudinal data sets. Overwhelmingly, these studies have found clear evidence of economic, social and individual benefits as a result of participating in adult learning. While these claims are important and influential ones, there has to date been little discussion of the nature of the data and analytical techniques being used. The paper explores the limitations of longitudinal research, but concludes that this body of work still represents an important new departure in the field.

Tindall, D.B. 2004. “Social Movement Participation Over Time: An Ego-Network Approach to Micro-Mobilization.” Sociological Focus, 37(2):163-184.

by David Tindall

This is a paper I published in Sociological Focus. It involves a quantitative longitudinal analysis of participants in the wilderness preservation movement in British Columiba. In particular, I focus on the role played by social networks.

This study focuses upon the relationship between  personal networks and the participation of individuals in a... more This study focuses upon the relationship between  personal networks and the participation of individuals in a social movement over time, a rarity in the social movement literature which has mostly used cross-sectional designs to explore this topic.  Objectives of the research include empirically documenting some of mechanisms that underlie the effects of network ties on social movement participation (thus taking a step toward filling a gap in the literature), examining the explanatory power of an ego-network model of individual participation in social movements over time, and examining whether network variables have net effects on activism, once past activism is controlled.  This last objective was designed to examine whether or not network effects are spurious.  Data were collected through two waves of a panel survey administered to members of three formal environmental organizations in Victoria, British Columbia in 1992, and again in 1998.  These organizations were central to the British Columbia wilderness preservation movement.  Multiple regression and path analysis are utilized to examine the relative importance of network degree versus network range, as well as frequency of communication and level of movement identification, for explaining level of social movement participation. Results show distinct effects of network degree, network range, communication, and identification on level of activism.  An additional finding is that network (and network process) variables have effects on new activism that are independent of the effects of past activism. A theoretical discussion considers the implications of the stage of the cycle of protest, and biographical availability in influencing these processes.

Is lifelong learning making a difference? Research-based evidence on the impact of adult learning

by John Field

Now published by Springer in International Handbook of Lifelong Learning

We have, in recent years, seen a remarkable expansion in serious research attention to lifelong learning and its... more We have, in recent years, seen a remarkable expansion in serious research attention to lifelong learning and its benefits. Many researchers and policy specialists find this work particularly persuasive, because it is based on large scale longitudinal survey data. After summarising and commenting on this work, as well as findings from other countries where available, I then consider the implications for policy, practice and research.

Use of Serial Qualitative Interviews to Understand Patients' Evolving Experiences and Needs

by Fiona Harris

Introduction: Longitudinal Analysis of Historical-Demographic Data

by Emily Merchant

Co-authored with G.C. Alter, M.P. Gutmann, and S.H. Leonard. Published in Journal of Interdisciplinary History 42:4 (Spring 2012), special issue on longitudinal historical demographic analysis, ed. idem.

Understanding the complexity of the historical demographic transition—the secular change from high to low levels of... more Understanding the complexity of the historical demographic transition—the secular change from high to low levels of mortality and fertility in Western Europe and the United States during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries—has long been a major goal of historical demography. Recent developments in individual-level life-course databases and longitudinal statistical models have allowed scholars to test ever-more complex hypotheses about the causal factors in demographic change and to develop an increasingly fine-grained image of demographic behavior before, during, and after the transition. Such studies are critical for identifying variation, both between and within societies, obscured by secular trends that appear uniform at the macro-level, and for distinguishing the contingent elements of demographic change from the universal elements. The six articles presented in this special issue bring new substantive and methodological insights to the field of historical demography—revealing the responsiveness of pre-transition fertility to changing contexts, tracking the transmission of new fertility practices, exploring the unevenness of mortality and fertility decline, and documenting the changing role of social institutions in family formation.

Assessing Instructional Leadership: A Longitudinal Study Of New Principals

by Gavin Brown

co-authored with Dr. Constance Chai, The University of Auckland.

We are grateful to Prof. Viviane Robinson, The University of Auckland, for giving us access to the SALTAL data and for assistance with earlier drafts of the paper.

Current Citation: Brown, G. T. L., & Chai, C. (2012, accepted). Assessing instructional leadership: A longitudinal study of new principals. Journal of Educational Administration, 50(6).

Purpose. The purpose of the paper was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Self Assessment of Leadership of... more Purpose. The purpose of the paper was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Self Assessment of Leadership of Teaching and Learning (SALTAL) inventory in conditions of repeated administration.
Research Methods/Approach. In 2006 and 2007 nearly all of New Zealand’s newly appointed school principals participated in an 18 month induction program (First Time Principals). The SALTAL self-report was administered in three waves (i.e., before FTP, after 2 residential courses, and at the end of the FTP) to two cohorts. This voluntary survey was completed all three times by 55% (n=86) and 44% (n=85) of 2006 and 2007 participants respectively. Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis evaluated the stability of the SALTAL factor structure for each of the six administrations. Longitudinal curve modeling evaluated the linear effect of time on SALTAL responses.
Findings. Responses to SALTAL were statistically equivalent across all six administrations. The longitudinal model was statistically invariant between cohorts. Initial scores were inversely correlated with changes over time. Increased time had a significant effect on SALTAL scores.
Implications for Research and Practice. The SALTAL has demonstrable stability in eliciting response in repeated administration and is useful for studying the impact of leadership development programs.

Language proficiency, home-language status, and English vocabulary development: A longitudinal follow-up of the Word Generation program

by Joshua Lawrence

Authors: JOSHUA F. LAWRENCE, LAUREN CAPOTOSTO, LEE BRANUM-MARTIN, CLAIRE WHITE and CATHERINE E. SNOW

This longitudinal quasi-experimental study examines the effects of Word Generation, a middle-school vocabulary... more This longitudinal quasi-experimental study examines the effects of Word Generation, a middle-school vocabulary intervention, on the learning, maintenance, and consolidation of academic vocabulary for students from English-speaking homes, proficient English speakers from language-minority homes, and limited English-proficiency students. Using individual growth modeling, we found that students receiving Word Generation improved more on target word knowledge during the instructional period than students in comparison schools did, on average. We found an interaction between instruction and home-language status such that English-proficient students from language-minority homes improved more than English-proficient students from English-speaking homes. Limited English-proficiency students, however, did not realize gains equivalent to those of more proficient students from language-minority homes during the instructional period. We administered follow-up assessments in the fall after the instructional period ended and in the spring of the following year to determine how well students maintained and consolidated target academic words. Students in the intervention group maintained their relative improvements at both follow-up assessments.

The dynamics of social exclusion in Europe

by Jane Millar

The dynamics of poverty and employment: the contribution of qualitative longitudinal research to understanding transitions, adaptations and trajectories

by Jane Millar

Gewalt und Suizid im Strafvollzug–Ein längsschnittliches DFG-Projekt im thüringischen und nordrhein-westfälischen Jugendstrafvollzug

by Holger Schmidt

Co-authored with Frank Neubacher, Jenny Oelsner, Verena Boxberg

Der Beitrag skizziert den derzeitigen Forschungsstand und stellt ein groß angelegtes Forschungsprojekt vor, das... more Der Beitrag skizziert den derzeitigen Forschungsstand und stellt ein groß angelegtes Forschungsprojekt vor, das derzeit am Institut für Kriminologie der Universität zu Köln durchgeführt wird. U. a. werden erste Eindrücke vom Pretest in der JVA Siegburg ver- mittelt.

ALWA-Befragungsdaten verknüpft mit administrativen Daten des IAB 1975-2009 (ALWA-ADIAB 7509)

by Manfred Antoni

Co-authored with Jacobebbinghaus, Peter; Seth, Stefan; published as FDZ Datenreport, 05/2011; further information: http://www.iab.de/897/section.aspx/Publikation/k111031a04

This data report describes the linked data of the survey Working and Learning in a Changing World (ALWA) with... more This data report describes the linked data of the survey Working and Learning in a Changing World (ALWA) with administrative data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

ALWA-ADIAB - linked individual survey and administrative data for substantive and methodological research

by Manfred Antoni

Co-authored with Stefan Seth; forthcoming in Schmollers Jahrbuch. Journal of Applied Social Science Studies

ALWA - New life course data for Germany

by Manfred Antoni

Co-authored with Katrin Drasch, Corinna Kleinert, Britta Matthes, Michael Ruland, Annette Trahms; forthcoming in Schmollers Jahrbuch. Journal of Applied Social Science Studies