Land Use Model

A simulation of the Neolithic transition in the Indus valley

by Aurangzeb Khan

"1110.1091v3.pdf" is the final accepted version.

Using Geographic Information Systems to Develop and Analyze Land-Use Policies

by Texas State PA Applied Research Projects

Gillfillan, Abigail, "Using Geographic Information Systems to Develop and Analyze Land-Use Policies" (2008). Applied Research Projects, Texas State University-San Marcos. Paper 273.
http://ecommons.txstate.edu/arp/273

Urbanization has a profound effect on the natural environment. Decisions concerning the transformation of land from a... more Urbanization has a profound effect on the natural environment. Decisions concerning the transformation of land from a natural to developed state take place almost exclusively on the local level in the United States. While the importance and complexity of land-use decisions are high, the resources available to local government officials are sparse. Incorporating ecological principles (stream quality protection) into local land use decisions is challenging due to the complexity of the problems and significance of the impact on the community. This research explored the use of geographic information systems (GIS) as a tool to clarify land use decisions. The method employed was a case study of the city of San Marcos, Texas where GIS technology was used to create build-out maps of three different watersheds within the city. These build-out maps provide a snapshot of the stream quality in each of the three watersheds when the city reaches build out. Impervious cover is used as the indicator for stream quality. A land-use method was used to estimate and forecast impervious cover levels in each of the three watersheds. Three working hypotheses were developed to predict whether stream quality would be consistent with community expectations under current development policies, a conservation development ordinance, or a restriction on development within the 100-year floodplain. The results indicate that when the city of San Marcos reaches build out, two of the three watersheds analyzed will not meet community expectations for stream quality under current development policies. Results also show that neither of the stream quality protection measures chosen meets community expectations.

Residential Land Use Policy and Conservation Development in the Blanco River Basin

by Texas State PA Applied Research Projects

Ellis, Ronald L. Jr., "Residential Land Use Policy and Conservation Development in the Blanco River Basin" (2006). Applied Research Projects, Texas State University-San Marcos. Paper 110.
http://ecommons.txstate.edu/arp/110

The purpose of this research has two parts. The first is to evaluate the compatibility of residential land use... more The purpose of this research has two parts. The first is to evaluate the compatibility of residential land use policies in the Blanco River Basin with conservation development. The second is to identify, through open-ended interviews, policy alternatives that may be useful to accomplish conservation development in the Blanco River Basin. The research methods included document analysis of residential land use policies of the cities and counties that govern most of the Blanco River Basin and personal interviews with planners and developers who have expertise in conservation development planning. The findings indicate that residential land use policies in the Blanco River basin are generally incompatible with conservation development, but that alternative policy methods exist that may be able to permit its practice.

Assessing Anthropogenic Soil Erosion with Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery: An Archaeological Case Study of Long Term Land Use in Koppal District, Karnataka

by Kathleen Morrison

In press
Co-authored with A.M. Bauer
Book chapter in "South Asian Archaeology 2007," M. Tosi (ed.), British Archaeological Reports.

Agricultural and Green Infrastructures: The Role of Non-Urbanised Areas for Eco-Sustainable Planning In a Metropolitan Region

by Daniele La Rosa

Co-authored with:
Paolo La Greca, Francesco Martinico, Riccardo privitera
Environmental Pollution, 159, 2011, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2010.11.017

Non Urbanised Areas (NUAs) are part of agricultural and green infrastructures that provide ecosystem services. Their... more Non Urbanised Areas (NUAs) are part of agricultural and green infrastructures that provide ecosystem services. Their role is fundamental for the minimization of urban pollution and adaptation to climate change. Like all natural ecosystems, NUAs are endangered by urban sprawl. The regulation of sprawl is a key issue for land use planning. We propose a land use suitability strategy model to orient Land Uses of NUAs, based on integration of Land Cover (LCA) and Fragmentation Analyses (FA). With LCA the percentage of evapotranspiring surface is defined for each land use. Dimensions and densities of NUAs patches are assessed in FA. The model has been developed with Geographical Information Systems, using an extensive set of geodatabases, including orthophotos, vectorial cartographies and field surveys. The case of the municipality of Mascalucia in Catania metropolitan area (Italy), characterized by a considerable urban sprawl, is presented.

An Economic Agent-Based Model of Coupled Housing and Land Markets (CHALMS)

by Nicholas Magliocca

Working paper version; accepted to "Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems".

This paper describes a spatially disaggregated, economic agent-based model of urban land use, which is named for its... more This paper describes a spatially disaggregated, economic agent-based model of urban land use, which is named for its innovative feature of Coupled Housing and Land Markets (CHALMS). The three types of agents—consumer, farmer and developer—all make decisions based on underlying economic principles, and heterogeneity of both individuals and the landscape is represented. CHALMS simulates the conversion of farmland to housing development over time, through the actions of the agents in the land and housing markets. Land and building structures in the housing bundle are treated explicitly, so the model can represent the effects of land and housing prices on housing density over time. We use CHALMS to simulate the dynamics of land use changes as a representative suburban area grows. The presence of agent and landscape heterogeneity, stochastic processes, and path-dependence require multiple model runs, and the expression of spatial dispersion of housing types, overall housing density, and land prices over time in terms of the most likely, or ‘average’, patterns. We find that CHALMS captures both the general tendency for diminishing population density at greater distances from the center city, and dispersed leapfrog patterns of development evident in most suburban areas of the U.S. 

Keywords: Agent-based modeling; Land markets; Housing markets; Price expectations; Coupled markets.

Zoning on the urban fringe: Results from a new approach to modeling land and housing markets

by Nicholas Magliocca

This paper uses an economic agent-based model of land use in a hypothetical urban fringe community to examine the... more This paper uses an economic agent-based model of land use in a hypothetical urban fringe community to examine the effects of large-lot zoning on land conversion, land prices, and the spatial configuration and density of new development. The model incorporates the actions of heterogeneous housing consumers, developers, and farmer/landowners who make economic decisions in land and housing markets. The model allows for population growth and simulates the evolution of land use patterns and prices over a 20-year time period. Zoning regulations in the form of minimum lot size restrictions imposed in an outlying area are shown to have effects that vary with the stringency of the regulations: 2-acre minimum lot sizes have little effect on the spatial patterns of development, but they do increase land and housing prices and result in higher incomes in the region; 5-acre minimum lot sizes push development toward the city center, leaving agricultural land in the zoned region undeveloped until quite late in the simulation period. While house prices are higher with 5-acre zoning, land prices in the zoned region fall, highlighting the countervailing influences of lot size restrictions on land prices. The new modeling approach allows for the tracking of the transitional dynamics of development, both over space and time as the urban area grows.

Highlights

► Paper uses an economic agent based urban model with spatial land conversion. ► The model allows for variation in households and in land characteristics. ► A key result is that the type and stringency of zoning matters. ► There are spillover effects of zoning on land and housing prices in unzoned areas. ► We can observe offsetting effects on land prices from zoning.

JEL classification: R14; R12; R31; R52

Keywords: Urban model; Spatial land use; Zoning

El impacto de los pozos sépticos en la calidad de agua y los arrecifes de coral en la Reserva Marina de Tres Palmas (Rincón-Puerto Rico)

by Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado

Norat Ramírez, J., P. Méndez Lázaro, E.A. Hernández Delgado, & L. Cordero Rivera. El impacto de los pozos sépticos en la calidad de agua y los arrecifes de coral en la Reserva Marina de Tres Palmas (Rincón-Puerto Rico). IX Congreso Regional para Norteamérica y el Caribe sobre Ingeniería Sanitaria y Ambiental – Región I de AIDIS (in press)

Sewage impacts in coral reef ecosystems are a major concern. Previous study showed evidence that coral reefs along a... more Sewage impacts in coral reef ecosystems are a major concern. Previous study showed evidence that coral reefs along a significant portion of the southwestern Puerto Rico shelf are being severely impacted by nonpoint source sewage pollution, mostly from inadequate septic tanks. In this project we analyzed the impact of nonpoint source water pollution on water quality and coral reefs in coastal waters of the Tres Palmas Marine Reserve in Rincón. Both inorganic and microbiological marine water quality indicators were used as impact parameters. The analysis of nonpoint pollution sources was carried out through the use of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems techniques and land based water sampling. For coral reef evaluation, we randomly selected 54 sampling stations at each survey area within and outside the Tres Palmas Marine Reserve subdivided on 9 replicate stations per site. The presence of threatened Elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata and dead standing skeletons within each 100 m2 plot was noted.  Average densities detected in coastal water stations within or near the Tres Palmas Reserve ranged from 0.1 to 15.3 CFU/100 mL of Faecal coliforms and 5 to 27 CFU/100 mL of Enterococci, but occasional pulses exceeded legal standards. This confirms the presence of microbiological contamination by rainfall runoff and possible overflows of septic tanks located close to the coast. Most residences along the Tres Palmas Marine Reserve coastal watersheds use septic tanks. Intermittent creeks serve as conduits of septic tank overflows or bypass discharges from several "barriadas" within the selected sub-watersheds. The analysis of 223 colonies of A. palmata suggests that corals are showing unmistakable historical signs of partial mortality of colonies associated with recurrent rainfall runoff.

Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change

by Carsten Lemmen

Lead author Jed O. Kaplan; co-authored with Kristen M. Krumhardt, Erle C. Ellis, William F. Ruddiman, and Kees Klein Goldewijk

Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to... more Humans have altered the Earth’s land surface since the Paleolithic mainly by clearing woody vegetation first to improve hunting and gathering opportunities, and later to provide agricultural cropland. In the Holocene, agriculture was established on nearly all continents and led to widespread modification of terrestrial ecosystems. To quantify the role that humans played in the global carbon cycle over the Holocene, we developed a new, annually resolved inventory of anthropogenic land cover change from 8000 years ago to the beginning of large-scale industrialization (AD 1850). This inventory is based on a simple relationship between population and land use observed in several European countries over preindustrial time. Using this data set, and an alternative scenario based on the HYDE 3.1 land use data base, we forced the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model in a series of continuous simulations to evaluate the impacts of humans on terrestrial carbon storage during the preindustrial Holocene. Our model setup allowed us to quantify the importance of land degradation caused by repeated episodes of land use followed by abandonment. By 3 ka BP, cumulative carbon emissions caused by anthropogenic land cover change in our new scenario ranged between 84 and 102 Pg, translating to c. 7 ppm of atmospheric CO2. By AD 1850, emissions were 325–357 Pg in the new scenario, in contrast to 137–189 Pg when driven by HYDE. Regional events that resulted in local emissions or uptake of carbon were often balanced by contrasting patterns in other parts of the world. While we cannot close the carbon budget in the current study, simulated cumulative anthropogenic emissions over the preindustrial Holocene are consistent with the ice core record of atmospheric ␣13CO2 and support the hypothesis that anthropogenic activities led to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level that made the world substantially warmer than it otherwise would be.

World distribution of land cover changes during Pre- and Protohistoric Times and estimation of induced carbon releases

by Carsten Lemmen

Open Access, published in Géomorphologie : relief, processus, environnement , 4/2009 (2010)

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline... more The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment

by Richard S.J. Tol

Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Volume 14, Number 2 / April, 2009

Regression Techniques for Examining Land Use/Cover Change: a Case Study of a Mediterranean Landscape

by James Millington

Millington, J.D.A., Perry, G.L.W. and Romero-Calcerrada, R. (2007) Ecosystems 10(4) 562-578

In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing,... more In many areas of the northern Mediterranean Basin the abundance of forest and scrubland vegetation is increasing, commensurate with decreases in agricultural land use(s). Much of the land use/cover change (LUCC) in this region is associated with the marginalization of traditional agricultural practices due to ongoing socioeconomic shifts and subsequent ecological change. Regression-based models of LUCC have two purposes: (i) to aid explanation of the processes driving change and/or (ii) spatial projection of the changes themselves. The independent variables contained in the single ‘best’ regression model (that is, that which minimizes variation in the dependent variable) cannot be inferred as providing the strongest causal relationship with the dependent variable. Here, we examine the utility of hierarchical partitioning and multinomial regression models for, respectively, explanation and prediction of LUCC in EU Special Protection Area 56, ‘Encinares del río Alberche y Cofio’ (SPA 56) near Madrid, Spain. Hierarchical partitioning estimates the contribution of regression model variables, both independently and in conjunction with other variables in a model, to the total variance explained by that model and is a tool to isolate important causal variables. By using hierarchical partitioning we find that the combined effects of factors driving land cover transitions varies with land cover classification, with a coarser classification reducing explained variance in LUCC. We use multinomial logistic regression models solely for projecting change, finding that accuracies of maps produced vary by land cover classification and are influenced by differing spatial resolutions of socioeconomic and biophysical data. When examining LUCC in human-dominated landscapes such as those of the Mediterranean Basin, the availability and analysis of spatial data at scales that match causal processes is vital to the performance of the statistical modelling techniques used here.

Participatory evaluation of agent-based land use models

by James Millington

Millington, J.D.A., Demeritt, D. and Romero-Calcerrada, R. (2011) Journal of Land Use Science 6(2-3) 195-210

Email jamesdamillington at gmail.com for a pdf of the paper

A key issue facing contemporary agent-based land-use models (ABLUMs) is model evaluation. In this article, we outline... more A key issue facing contemporary agent-based land-use models (ABLUMs) is model evaluation. In this article, we outline some of the epistemological problems facing the evaluation of ABLUMs, including the definition of boundaries for modelling open systems. In light of these issues and given the characteristics of ABLUMs, participatory model evaluation by local stakeholders may be a preferable avenue to pursue. We present a case study of participatory model evaluation for an agent-based model designed to examine the impacts of land-use/cover change on wildfire regimes for a region of Spain. Although model output was endorsed by interviewees as credible, several alterations to model structure were suggested. Of broader interest, we found that some interviewees conflated model structure with scenario boundary conditions. If an interactive participatory modelling approach is not possible, an emphasis on ensuring that stakeholders understand the distinction between model structure and scenario boundary conditions will be particularly important.

Simulação de crescimento, morfologias e o papel dos recursos hídricos na dinâmica de expansão urbana.

by Otavio M Peres

to be published in 13º ConfibSIb, Toluca, México.

The MOLAND Model Calibration and Validation for the Greater Dublin Region

by Harutyun Shahumyan

Harutyun Shahumyan, Roger White, Bright Osei Twumasi, Sheila Convery, Brendan Williams, Martin Critchley, John Carty, Cormac Walsh
and Michael Brennan
UCD Urban Institute Ireland Working Paper Series (09/03), 2009

This paper presents the results of the MOLAND model calibration and validation for the Greater Dublin Region (GDR).... more This paper presents the results of the MOLAND model calibration and validation for the Greater Dublin Region (GDR). Having landuse data for three time periods (1990, 2000 and 2006) gives a rare opportunity to apply the classic "calibrate and validate" approach. But economic growth fluctuations in Ireland from 1990 to 2006 cause some challenges for calibration/validation of the model for that period. This will be discussed in this paper using the MOLAND model as an example. Population and employment data used in the model, as well as achieved calibration results and appropriate parameters are presented.

Exploring Land Use-Transport Interactions in the Greater Dublin Region Using the MOLAND Model

by Harutyun Shahumyan

H. Shahumyan, S. Convery, E. Casey
Proceedings of the 1st Annual Conference of the Irish Transport Research Network, University College Dublin, Ireland, 2010

Urban regions are increasingly important given the rapid pace of change of land use in these regions driven to some... more Urban regions are increasingly important given the rapid pace of change of land use in these regions driven to some extent by changes in demography, economic development, environment, transport and technology. The MOLAND model provides a spatial illustration of alternative development patterns and trends; it offers a basis for the analysis of the spatial implications of particular policies and provides a useful platform for discussion and comparison of land use – transport interactions under different scenarios. The MOLAND transport model was used for the Greater Dublin Region, running two possible scenarios of transport infrastructure development in the region. The influence of the Metro North line was analysed to show its effect on transport flows in the region. The results of comparison analysis are discussed in terms of the implications on future settlement and transport flow patterns in the Greater Dublin Region as a whole and particularly in the areas intersected by Metro North.

Data Preparation for the MOLAND Model Application for the Greater Dublin Region

by Harutyun Shahumyan

Harutyun Shahumyan, Bright Osei Twumasi, Sheila Convery, Ronan Foley, Eilís Vaughan, Edward Casey, John Carty, Cormac Walsh, Michael Brennan
UCD Urban Institute Ireland Working Paper Series (0904), 2009

This paper presents the data preparation and processing steps that were taken to provide inputs for the MOLAND model... more This paper presents the data preparation and processing steps that were taken to provide inputs for the MOLAND model application for the Greater Dublin Region. The model requires spatial and socioeconomic data by county for the beginning and end years of the calibration period i.e. 1990, 2000 and 2006. In addition, projections of socio-economic variables are required for implementing different scenarios. Basic data requirements of the new transport model and description of related data collection works are also presented. Heretofore detailed information and justification for approaches taken in preparing data for ingestion to MOLAND has been undocumented. This paper aims to address that gap. Therefore the steps that have been taken to prepare and process these datasets are described in detail including background information, interpretation and processing methods used and the main assumptions and generalisations adopted.

From land use to land cover: evapotranspiration assessment in a metropolitan region

by Daniele La Rosa

Co-authored with:
Paolo La Greca, Francesco Martinico, Riccardo Privitera