Can bioenergy assessments deliver?
Authors: Felix Creutzig, Christoph von Stechow, David Klein, Carol Hunsberger, Nico Bauer, Alexander Popp, and Ottmar Edenhofer.
Published in Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, 2012.
The role of biomass as a primary energy resource is highly debated. Next generation biofuels are suggested to be... more The role of biomass as a primary energy resource is highly debated. Next generation biofuels are suggested to be associated with low specific greenhouse gas emissions. But land consumption, demand for scarce water, competition with food production and harmful indirect land-use effects put a question mark over the beneficial effects of bioenergy deployment. In this paper, we investigate the current state of bioenergy assessments and scrutinize the topics and perspectives explored in the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change. We suggest that an appropriate assessment requires a comprehensive literature review, the explicit exposition of disparate viewpoints, and exploration of policy-relevant content based on plausible "storylines". We illustrate these storylines with the IPCC's emission scenarios and point out routes to improve assessment making on the future role of bioenergy.
Score generalizability of academic writing tasks: Does one test method fit it all?
by Atta Gebril
Journal of Language Testing, 26 , 507-531.
doi: 10.1177/0265532209340188
A close investigation into source use in integrated second language writing tasks
by Atta Gebril
Assessing Writing Journal, 17(1), 18-34.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asw.2011.09.002
Investigating source use, discourse features, and process in integrated writing tests
by Atta Gebril
Co-authored with Lia Plakans as part of a Spaan Fellwoship in Second / Foreign Language Assessment from the University of Michigan.
Reading-to-Write Assessment Tasks: Fundamental Issues in Reliability, Validity, and Task Development
by Atta Gebril
In Arshad Samad & Sharifah Rahman, Readings in Professional Development in Teaching English as a Second Language, pp 89-106. Selangor, Malaysia: Universiti Putra Malaysia Press.
Towards a transparent construct of reading-to-write assessment tasks: The interface between discourse features and proficiency.
by Atta Gebril
Gebril A. & Plakans, L. (Forthcoming). Towards a transparent construct of reading-to-write assessment tasks: The interface between discourse features and proficiency. Language Assessment Quarterly. A Special Issue on the Use of Integrated Writing Tasks in Language Assessment.
Scientists Learn not only Science but also Diplomacy: Learning Processes in the European Transboundary Air Pollution Regime
Chapter contribution to Rolf LIdskog, Goran Sundqvist (eds.) (2011) Governing the Air: Science-Policy-Citizens Dynamics in International Environmental Governance. MIT Press.
Download (.pdf) Implications of wet weather flow on the design of parallel hybrid-membrane bioreactors – a simulation study
Keywords ammonia flush load, hybrid membrane bioreactor, equalization
H. Inoki, P. Staufer, T. Murakami and J. Pinnekamp (2011).
6th IWA Specialist Conference on Membrane Technology for Water & Wastewater Treatment, 4-7 Oct. 2011, Aachen, Ger.
The re-engineering of waste water treatment plants that were erected 20 to 40 years ago makes a revision of the... more
The re-engineering of waste water treatment plants that were erected 20 to 40 years ago makes a revision of the technology possible. Especially where space is precious, decreasing the footprint by combining membrane technology with the conventional activated sludge process to a hybrid system may be beneficial to overall costs. Such systems which align conventional activated sludge systems and membrane bioreactors either parallel or in series are considered hybrid membrane bioreactors (HMBR). Furthermore, membrane bioreactors (MBR) are commonly known to increase the effluent quality. However, in combined sewer systems high load variation can be observed during the beginning of a storm water event. Therefore, a simulation study was carried out to look into the impact of flush loads in the design of HMBRs. In particular, the paper deals with the size of equalization volume which causes a further interaction between the two systems. The results are presented for different distribution ratios varying between 0 and 100 % MBR capacity.
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The Problem of the Competitiveness of Nuclear Energy: A Biophysical Explanation
This Working Paper intends to provide a sound explanation for the systemic problem of low competitiveness of nuclear energy.
Parts of this working paper are under process for publication in different international peer reviewed journals soon.
Refer to as:
F. Diaz Maurin: The Problem of the Competitiveness of Nuclear Energy: A Biophysical Explanation, Working Papers on Environmental Sciences
http://www.recercat.net/handle/2072/169668
Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA)
Edifici Cn, Campus UAB
08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
Tel: (+34) 935812974
http://icta.uab.cat
icta@uab.cat
This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/)
In this study I try to explain the systemic problem of the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy for the... more In this study I try to explain the systemic problem of the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy for the production of electricity by carrying out a biophysical analysis of its production process. Given the fact that neither econometric approaches nor onedimensional methods of energy analyses are effective, I introduce the concept of biophysical explanation as a quantitative analysis capable of handling the inherent ambiguity associated with the concept of energy. In particular, the quantities of energy, considered as relevant for the assessment, can only be measured and aggregated after having agreed on a pre-analytical definition of a grammar characterizing a given set of finite transformations. Using this grammar it becomes possible to provide a biophysical explanation for the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity. When comparing the various unit operations of the process of production of electricity with nuclear energy to the analogous unit operations of the process of production of fossil energy, we see that the various phases of the process are the same. The only difference is related to characteristics of the process associated with the generation of heat which are completely different in the two systems. Since the cost of production of fossil energy provides the base line of economic competitiveness of electricity, the (lack of) economic competitiveness of the production of electricity from nuclear energy can be studied, by comparing the biophysical costs associated with the different unit operations taking place in nuclear and fossil power plants when generating process heat or net electricity. In particular, the analysis focuses on fossil-fuel requirements and labor requirements for those phases that both nuclear plants and fossil energy plants have in common: (i) mining; (ii) refining/enriching; (iii) generating heat/electricity; (iv) handling the pollution/radioactive wastes. By adopting this approach, it becomes possible to explain the systemic low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity, because of: (i) its dependence on oil, limiting its possible role as a carbon-free alternative; (ii) the choices made in relation to its fuel cycle, especially whether it includes reprocessing operations or not; (iii) the unavoidable uncertainty in the definition of the characteristics of its process; (iv) its large inertia (lack of flexibility) due to issues of time scale; and (v) its low power level.
La gobernanza de la ciencia y la tecnología y el desafío del progreso, la vulnerabilidad y el desarollo sostenible
in: Innerarity, Daniel; Solana, Javier (Eds.): La humanidad amenazada: gobernar los riesgos globales, Barcelona (Ediciones Paidós) 2011, pp. 193-235
Este trabajo presentará una serie de cuatro breves tesis de gran importancia para aumentar el debate sobre la mejor... more Este trabajo presentará una serie de cuatro breves tesis de gran importancia para aumentar el debate sobre la mejor gobernanza de la ciencia mediante la cooperación de expertos inter y transdisciplinarios y la participación de los ciudadanos. Se abordará la esencia del progreso, el concepto de vulnerabilidad y el modelo de desarrollo sostenible al tiempo que se introducirá posteriormente un inspirador concepto marco de la evaluación de la tecnología.
Key Issues of Integrative Technology Assessment
in: Banse, Gerhard; Nelson, Gordon; Parodi, Oliver (Eds.): Sustainable Development - The Cultural Perspective, Berlin (Edition Sigma) 2011, pp. 77-108
This paper has been written with the intention to present some conceptual and programmatic considerations. The length... more
This paper has been written with the intention to present some conceptual and programmatic considerations. The length of its complete title is therefore nothing less than an expression of the idea to pay attention to far-reaching and broad civilizational and paradigmatic connections instead of focussing on a single area of professional specialization.
In this way – and according to KISS, a well-known principle of great design that says “Keep It Simple and Straightforward” – four clusters of contents will be introduced and treated subsequently:
(1) “Progress”, because its shaping is indeed the central subject of governance of science and technology in general and of technology assessment (TA) in particular!
(2) “Vulnerability”, because that is the very challenge of our times!
(3) “Sustainable Development”, because that really answers the question of how to gain the future!
(4) “Governance of Science and Technology”, because evidently there is some discrepancy between a growing demand for a good governance of these issues and a lack of satisfying strategies and concepts of how to do that! Therefore – and because of the fact that technology assessment is of crucial importance for any ambitious governance approach – I would like to introduce a framework concept that I call “Integrative Technology Assessment” (ITA).
Moreover, and in order to develop my argument in a clear and understandable way, there will be composed four general theses on the line of the four points, one of each for “progress”, “vulnerability” and “sustainable development” plus one for the concluding general thesis.
Tentative Ideas to Explore the Viability of the Nuclear Option
Can we break the addiction to fossil energy?, Proceedings of the 7th Biennial International Workshop Advances in Energy Studies (19-21 October 2010, Barcelona, Spain)
J. Ramos-Martin, M. Giampietro, S. Ulgiati, S.G.F. Bukkens, Editors
This was a brainstorming paper presenting my first thoughts on what will become my PhD dissertation.
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The relevance of participatory approaches in integrated environmental assessment
Integrated Assessment 2: 57–72, 2001
City-scale integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Co-authored with Dawson R., Hall J., Barr S., Batty M., Bristow A., Carney S., Evans S., Ford A., Kohler J., Tight M., Walsh C., Watters H. and Zanni A., IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, 10-12 March 2009. Copenhagen, Denmark.
Over half the global population live in cities whilst urban greenhouse gas emissions are already a significant driver... more Over half the global population live in cities whilst urban greenhouse gas emissions are already a significant driver of global climate change. Consequently, cities have become foci for adaptation and mitigation efforts worldwide and are faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a state in which their greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and they are well adapted to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing understanding of the synergies and conflicts in the objectives of mitigation and adaptation. These interactions are no more vivid than in urban areas, where they play out through land use, infrastructure systems and the built environment. Without sensible planning, climate change can induce energy-intensive adaptations such as air conditioning or desalination, driving emissions further. Urban decision makers need to understand the implications of these interactions and the potential influences of future global changes. If they can test, through simulation, alternative policies and assess them from a multi- attribute point of view, they are more likely to avoid the mistakes of the past.
City-scale integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Co-authored with Hall J.W., Dawson R.J., Barr S.L., Batty M.,. Bristow A.L, Carney S., Ford A., Harpham C., Tight M.R., Walsh C.L., Watters H. and Zanni A.M, Urban Research Symposium 2009, June 28-30, 2009, Marseille, France
Worldwide, cities are faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a state in which their... more Worldwide, cities are faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a state in which their greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and they are well adapted to the impacts of climate change. There is increasing understanding of the synergies and conflicts in the objectives of mitigation and adaptation. These interactions are no more vivid than in urban areas, where they play out through land use, infrastructure systems and the built environment. Urban decision makers need to understand the implications of these interactions and the potential influences of future global changes. With these decision makers in mind, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research has for the last three years been developing an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) which seeks to simulate socio-economic change, climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the 21stcentury. The research is focussed upon London, UK, a city that has taken a lead role in the UK and globally with respect to climate protection. In this paper we describe the concept and various components within the UIAF and summarise some of the insights that have been garnered from this novel integrated analysis
E4M-GAIA: Energy-Economy-Environment-Engineering Modelling of Gaia
Energy and Climate Change Conference, 7-8 October 2010, Athens, Greece.
This paper presents the structure and theory of a new Model, the Economy-EnergyEnvironment-Engineering Model of Gaia... more This paper presents the structure and theory of a new Model, the Economy-EnergyEnvironment-Engineering Model of Gaia (E4M-GAIA) that has recently been developed. E4M-GAIA, adopts the same theoretical background with the “New Economics” school, mainly activated at the University of Cambridge, through –besides others- the highly-regarded macro-econometric MDM-E3 (for the UK), E3ME (for Europe) and E3MG (for the Global economy) models. It combines the features of an annual short- and medium-term sectoral model, estimated by formal econometric methods, with the detail and some of the methods of the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that provide analysis of the movement of the long term outcomes for key E4 indicators in response to policy changes. The E4M-GAIA combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel - ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering also their economic-technical and environmental characteristics. It can be used for dynamic policy simulation and for forecasting.
Assessment of climate change mitigation & adaptation in cities
Co-authored with Walsh C.L., Dawson R.J., Hall J.W., Barr S.L., Batty M., Bristow A.L., Carney S., Ford A.C., Harpham C., Tight M.R., Watters H., Zanni A., 2011, Urban Design and Planning, Vol.164, Issue 2, pp. 75-84.
Cities are faced with a number of sustainability challenges in the context of climate change. There is an urgent need... more Cities are faced with a number of sustainability challenges in the context of climate change. There is an urgent need to limit greenhouse gas emissions from cities if ambitious mitigation targets are to be met. Meanwhile, cities are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change unless adaptation plans can be put in place. The need to connect climate change adaptation and mitigation with broader assessment of sustainability is becoming increasingly recognised. This paper describes an urban integrated assessment facility developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, which simulates socio-economic change, climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the twenty first century at the city scale. The urban integrated assessment facility adopts a broad-scale systems approach to urban development and sustainability assessment. It incorporates a multi-sectoral model of the regional economy, hierarchical city-scale spatial interaction model and modules for assessment of climate impacts, adaptation options and greenhouse gas emissions. The paper demonstrates how the urban integrated assessment facility quantifies synergies and conflicts between adaptation to climate change and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in order to improve decision making and facilitate the development of portfolios of planning policies that together have a realistic prospect of achieving sustainable outcomes for cities.
Strategic appraisal of flood risk management options over extended timescales: combining scenario analysis with optimization
Co-authored with Hall J.W., T.R. Phillips, R.J.Dawson, S.L. Barr, A.C Ford, M.Batty, P. Sayers, FLOODrisk 2008, 30 September - 02 October 2008, Oxford, UK.
Strategic flood risk management seeks to identify portfolios of flood risk management options that can be implemented... more Strategic flood risk management seeks to identify portfolios of flood risk management options that can be implemented in a staged and adaptive way. This raises substantial challenges from the point of view of risk analysis, two of which are addressed in this paper. First we examine the problem of dealing with scenarios of long term change and in particular socio-economic and climate changes. We build substantially on the scenarios approach adopted in the UK Foresight project and subsequent studies by introducing a quantified high resolution coupled econometric and land use simulator. This is used in an assessment of the combined effects of land use and climate change. Again against the background of climate change, we go on to address the complexity of constructing and analysing portfolios of intervention flood risk management systems. Specifically, we illustrate how a genetic algorithm can be used to search the very high dimensional option space of flood defence management options and sequences. This new integrated approach of scenario analysis and optimization is illustrated with examples from the Thames Estuary in the UK.
Climate change and cities: integrated assessment of impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Co-authored with Dawson R., Hall L., Walsh C., Barr S., Ford A., Kohler J., Batty M., Evans S., Carney S., Watters H., Tight M., Zanni A. Bristow A., International Conference: “Climate change impacts and adaptation: Dangerous rates of change”, 22-24 September 2008, Exeter, UK.
Over half the global population live in cities and this is increasing. Urban greenhouse gas emissions are already a... more Over half the global population live in cities and this is increasing. Urban greenhouse gas emissions are already a significant driver of global climate change. Meanwhile, urban areas because of their high population density are vulnerable to climate change impacts. Without sensible planning, climate change can induce energy-intensive adaptations such as air conditioning or desalination driving emissions further. The Tyndall Centre Cities Programme has sought to address the fundamental issue of how can cities grow without increasing their emissions and vulnerability to climate change impacts through the development of an integrated assessment tool. The tool quantifies both the impacts of climate change on cities (e.g. flood risk, water resources and heatwaves) and their emissions. Projections of socio-economic change are simulated in econometric models to estimate regional changes which drive spatially explicit coupled land use and climate impacts models to estimate the changes in vulnerability in cities. Consecutively, the landuse change and regional econometrics projections inform transport and energy emissions accounting tools. The effectiveness of spatial planning, adaptation and mitigation options against these predicted changes in vulnerability and emissions can then be explored with involvement from stakeholders. A case study of this work in London will be presented.