GDP estimation

Kinky politics: On Indian GDP growth

by Raphael Susewind

2009

La norma e l’eccezione: i divari regionali in Italia (1891-2001) attraverso un’analisi shift-share

by Emanuele Felice

published in QA . Rivista dell’Associazione Rossi-Doria», 31 (2011), n. 4, pp. 77-112

La copia in pdf è solo un abbozzo. Per la versione definitiva e completa (e per eventuali citazioni) si veda l'articolo pubblicato, dal link sopra

draft only. Please see the published copy (from the link above) for the final and complete version, as well as for quotation

L’articolo analizza le nuove stime del valore aggiunto regionale, per anni benchmark dal 1891 al 2001, con riferimento... more L’articolo analizza le nuove stime del valore aggiunto regionale, per anni benchmark dal 1891 al 2001, con riferimento alla struttura occupazionale e al prodotto per addetto, nell’agricoltura, industria e servizi. Viene stimato l’impatto della distribuzione della forza lavoro e della produttività per addetto sui divari regionali e, attraverso un’analisi shift-share, vengono misurate le componenti strutturali e locali della crescita, in quattro distinti periodi storici: l’età liberale (1891-1911), gli anni fra le due guerre (1911-1951), il miracolo economico (1951-1971) e i decenni della ristrutturazione post-fordista (1971-2001). Dai risultati, emergono importanti spunti di riflessione sul «modello» italiano di disuguaglianza regionale nel lungo periodo, che sembra differenziarsi soprattutto per il percorso del Mezzogiorno, la cui convergenza durante il miracolo economico si è interrotta negli ultimi decenni.


The article analyses the new estimates of regional value added in Italy, in benchmark years from 1891 to 2001, by decomposing them into activity rates and per worker productivity, in agriculture, industry, and services. The contributions of activity rates and per worker productivity to the pattern of regional inequality are assessed and, through a shift-share analysis, the «share change», «mix change», and «shift change» components of growth are measured, in four different periods: the liberal age (1891-1911), the interwar years (1911-1951), the economic miracle (1951-1971), and the post-Fordist years (1971-2001). The results help highlight the peculiarity of the Italian long-run pattern of regional imbalances, i.e. the exceptionality of southern Italy, whose convergence during the economic miracle has come to a halt in the 1970s.

Neither dashboard nor ‘mashup’ indices: an empirical wealth approach as a pathway to a comprehensive measure of development

by Emanuele Felice

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Departament d’Economia i d’Història Econòmica. UHE Working Paper 2012_01, 2012

The article is composed of two sections. The first one is a critical review of the three main alternative indices to... more The article is composed of two sections. The first one is a critical review of the three main alternative indices to GDP which were proposed in the last decades – the Human Development Index (HDI), the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and the Happy Planet Index (HPI) – which is made on the basis of conceptual foundations, rather than looking at issues of statistical consistency or mathematical refinement as most of the literature does. The pars construens aims to propose an alternative measure, the composite wealth index, consistent with
an approach to development based on the notion of composite wealth, which is in turn derived from an empirical common sense criterion. Arguably, this approach is suitable to be conveyed into
an easily understandable and coherent indicator, and thus appropriate to track development in its various dimensions: simple in its formulation, the wealth approach can incorporate social and ecological goals without significant alterations in conceptual foundations, while reducing to a minimum arbitrary weighting.

Regional convergence in Italy, 1891–2001: testing human and social capital

by Emanuele Felice

forthcoming in Cliometrica (already available on-line)

this in a highly incomplete draft. Please see the published copy (from the link) for the final and complete version, as well as for quotation

La copia in pdf è solo un abbozzo, incompleto. Per la versione definitiva e completa (e per eventuali citazioni) si veda l'articolo pubblicato, dal link

The article aims to present and discuss estimates of levels of human and social capital in Italy’s regions over the... more The article aims to present and discuss estimates of levels of human and social capital in Italy’s regions over the long term, i.e., roughly from the second half of the nineteenth century up to the present day. The results are linked to newly available evidence for regional value added in order to begin to form an explanatory hypothesis of long-term regional inequality in Italy: convergence in value added per capita is tested in light of the neoclassical exogenous growth approach, which incorporates human capital and social capital as conditioning variables into a long-term production function. In contrast with conventional wisdom (e.g. Putnam 1993), we find that social capital was not a significant predictor of economic growth in post-Unification Italy: It grew in importance only in the last decades. Conversely, human capital was more important in the first half of the twentieth century. Results suggest that there was not one single conditioning variable over the long run, thus supporting the view that, in different periods, conditioning variables can be determined by technological regimes.

Predicting real GDP per capita in France, Germany, New Zealand, and the UK

by Ivan Kitov

Employment, unemployment and real economic growth

by Ivan Kitov

Estimating regional GDP in Italy (1871-2001): sources, methodology and results

by Emanuele Felice

This paper presents new estimates of Italian regional GDP for the years 1871,
1881 1891, 1901, 1911, 1938 and... more This paper presents new estimates of Italian regional GDP for the years 1871,
1881 1891, 1901, 1911, 1938 and 1951. This allows us to draw a long term
picture of regional development of the country, from the years following
national unification to the advent of Euro in 2001.

Regional value added in Italy (1891-2001): estimates, elaborations

by Emanuele Felice

The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the pattern of regional inequality
in Italy, from the end of the... more The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the pattern of regional inequality
in Italy, from the end of the nineteenth century until our days. Value added
estimates for the Italian regions, in benchmark years from 1891 until 1951, are
linked to those from official figures available from 1971, in order to offer a
long-term picture. It is worth anticipating that 1891-1951 estimates are not
entirely satisfactory yet (sources and methodologies used for 1891-1951
estimates are explained in some detail in the final appendix). However, at the
present stage of research they are comparable to those available for other
countries; further refinements can hardly be produced in the short run, while it
seems reasonable to think that they would not change significantly the overall
pattern. In short, present estimates allow us to set the Italian case within the
international context and to draw the basic lines of a long-term picture.

US GDP Systems Data (2009-2011)

by Patrice Natalie Delevante

Principles of Macroeconomics

The US GDP system is central to understanding the price outcomes and economy’s income with demands in exports of goods... more The US GDP system is central to understanding the price outcomes and economy’s income with demands in exports of goods and services. The GDP system of nominal GDP or the outcome of output products and services in 2009 and 2010 reveals the government and consumer spending in exports than imports increased the price level of real GDP outcome that is found when the nominal GDP is divided by the GDP Price index (i.e. price of a ‘collection’ of goods and services) times 100. Nominal and Real GDP levels increased in percentage amount in 2009 and 2010 and when the US GDP systems in each year is compared to Russian economy’s systems, the US price index is identical to the Russian price index revealing an identity GDP price index and percentage outcomes in services and products in exports. In both countries, imports negatively lessen government and consumer spending demands and the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s reactions to price levels and the economy is at caution risk levels.

THE STATISTICIAN'S GUIDE TO UTOPIA: THE FUTURE OF GROWTH

by Morten Tønnessen

TRAMES 12(62/57), 2, 2008: 115–126.

Featured as additional content in Encyclopaedia Britannica (www.britannica.com).

In this article I paint a concise portrait of world economic and population history. Key factors include the world... more In this article I paint a concise portrait of world economic and population history. Key factors include the world population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The role of technology in relation to the environmental impact of economic activity is represented by an Environmental Efficiency Factor (EEF). It is asserted that any modern political theory aspiring to comprehensiveness should deal with four subject matters: The
legitimate level of human interference with the rest of nature; the level of the human population; the nature and extent of the economy and technology. Past GDP growth rates combined with UN population projections result in a number of scenarios of future real GDP to the year 2300. In the course of inquiry, three measures of all time economic activity are introduced: All time world GDP per capita, accumulated world GDP and the annual growth rate of accumulated world GDP. In conclusion, I describe under what circumstances it is conceivable that the growth economy can persist for at least 300 more years. Directions of inquiry are offered to three groups: Those who want to maintain the growth economy for as long as possible; those who want world population to stay, in the long run, at a level comparable to that of today; and those who want to minimize environmental pressure.