Future Studies

Postmodern Intelligence: Strategic Warning in an Age of Reflexive Intelligence

by Myriam Dunn Cavelty

Security Dialogue, 40, 2, 2009, pp. 123-144

Providing strategic warning to policymakers is a key function of governmental intelligence organizations. Today,... more Providing strategic warning to policymakers is a key function of governmental intelligence organizations. Today, globally networked challenges increasingly overshadow their historical state-centric counterparts so that warning has become considerably more difficult.It is recognized in parts of the intelligence community that many of the current problems for warning arise from continued reliance on analytic tools, methodologies and processes that were appropriate to the static and hierarchical nature of the threat during the Cold War. However, even though alternative analysis techniques have begun to be applied, this article argues that the intelligence community could benefit from the understanding that more than just the ontology of threats has changed, that in fact it is in the epistemological area that the most meaningful changes have taken place: Society has seen the replacement of the previous means–end rationality by a reflexive rationality. The notion of reflexive security can provide a valuable conceptual framework for understanding the current changes, and it could be instrumental in adapting intelligence sources and methods to
a new era. In particular, an awareness of both complexity sciences and postmodernism might increase understanding of the limitations of knowledge and lead to the establishment of a political discourse of uncertainty.

Engineering love

by Brian Earp

Savulescu, J. and Sandberg, A. (2012). Love machine: Engineering lifelong romance. New Scientist, 2864, 28-29.

Essay partially adapted from Earp, B. D., Sandberg, A., and Savulescu, J. (2012). Natural selection, childrearing, and the ethics of marriage (and divorce): Building a case for the neuroenhancement of human relationships. Philosophy & Technology, forthcoming [see "profile" box in article].

Available at the New Scientist website: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428646.200-love-machine-engineering-lifelong-romance.html

New Scientist BIG IDEA section, May 2012.

With break-up and divorce a major part of modern life, it looks... more New Scientist BIG IDEA section, May 2012.

With break-up and divorce a major part of modern life, it looks like we may be outliving our inborn capacity to love. But there could be a way to outwit evolution and make love last.

Also available at New Scientist: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21428646.200-love-machine-engineering-lifelong-romance.html.

Enhancing strategic planning in the UK construction industry

by Chris Goodier

The future of UK housebuilding

by Chris Goodier

Anticipating tomorrow: the future of the European construction industry

by Chris Goodier

Future scenarios for the European construction industry

by Chris Goodier

Synthesising emerging issues within key futures study reports in construction

by Chris Goodier

Causal mapping and scenario building with multiple organisations

by Chris Goodier

A competitive future for UK construction?

by Chris Goodier

The futures of construction: a critical review of construction future studies

by Chris Goodier

Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A method for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts

by Chris Goodier

Future opportunities for offsite in the UK

by Chris Goodier

What symbols

by Dmitry Misyurov

This article contains 12 questions about the symbols. What are your thoughts in response? This article contains 12 questions about the symbols. What are your thoughts in response?

Reconsidérer la prospective de l’eau en Europe dans ses dimensions politiques

by Sara Fernandez

Le modèle « Forces motrices – Pressions – État – Impact – Réponse » ou DPSIR selon son acronyme anglais (Driving... more Le modèle « Forces motrices – Pressions – État – Impact – Réponse » ou DPSIR selon son acronyme anglais (Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response), développé par l’Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE) et l’Agence Européenne de l’Environnement (AEE) à partir du concept d’impact, est devenu incontournable dans le secteur de la planification des ressources en eau en Europe. Cet article propose de remettre en cause les méthodes prospectives fondées sur ce modèle qui n’aborde le changement qu’à travers ses effets sur les ressources naturelles. La société n’y est représentée que comme une force homogène, perturbatrice de l’environnement si elle n’est pas régulée par une gouvernance adéquate. En prenant la Garonne pour exemple, nous soulignons à quel point la construction des indicateurs hydrauliques dépend de contingences sociales. Ceci nous conduit à dévoiler les hypothèses néolibérales et le cadrage spatial du modèle DPSIR. Pour engager le dialogue avec ce modèle, nous proposons plusieurs DPSIR concurrents sur la Garonne. Cette pluralité de cadrages nous semble plus propice au débat que l’approche dominante consistant à réunir une pluralité d’acteurs autour d’un modèle unique.

In search of optimality: A systems technologist goes east [from New Zealand!]

by Peter Mellalieu

Mellalieu, P. J. (1983). In search of optimality: A systems technologist goes east. Overseas study report. Wellington, New Zealand: Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR).

In 1983, the author undertook a period of post-doctoral study based in the operations research departments at... more In 1983, the author undertook a period of post-doctoral study based in the operations research departments at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Lancaster University, England. The objectives of the overseas study were to report on practical developments in using systems technologies applied to planning activities. Of special concern was the application of such techniques to strategic planning and R&D planning. The report details the itinerary of the tour, observations, and recommendations.

The important developments observed were:

In business situations there is a strong emphasis in providing computer-based end-user oriented systems often using graphics and microcomputers

Artificial intelligence approaches, especially expert systems have already begun to be used by industrial practitioners.

In the United States, research into the planning and operation of flexible manufacturing systems (such as networks of robots) is a topic of high concern amongst operations researchers.

Strategic management is developing a strong discipline in its own right, with traditional operations research techniques being viewed as one of many available analytical tools.

The availability of both software and hardware computer technologies far exceeds the capacity of even large organisations to identify where the technology could be applied, what benefits might occur and how to adopt the technology.

The report recommends that New Zealand’s principle industrial and scientific organisation (DSIR) should play a major role in encouraging the construction of a ‘knowledge infrastructure’ that facilitates effective communication of technological know-how between national knowledge centers. The first generation of such an infrastructure are now emerging, but in a fragmented fashion. DSIR’s attention should focus on the strategic specification of the knowledge infrastructure needed by New Zealand in 1990. This specification will then identify pilot projects that should be commissioned over the next five years to provide the necessary base of experience for the detailed systems design. The report details specific proposals for achieving the recommendations.

Civilizational futures: Clashes or alternative visions in the age of Globalization?

by Mustafa Aydin

Co-authored with Çınar Özen,
Futures 42 (2010) 545–552

This article underlines the existing similarities between Samuel Huntington’s civilizational approach hypothesis and... more This article underlines the existing similarities between Samuel Huntington’s civilizational approach hypothesis and the fundamentals of political Islam. The similarity pertains to the argument related to the gradual weakening of nation-states, which also constitutes the main theme of the globalization debate. The civilizational approach and political Islam signify new efforts to reach a much larger political community and organization in world politics. Both of them argue that the formation of new political actor(s) is replacing the old nation-states across religious and cultural affinities. The terrorist organization Al-Qaeda is trying to legitimize its political violence by manipulating the weakness of the nation states and the utopia of the formation of a much more comprehensive political community and political organization through Islam. Huntington’s clash of civilizations thesis indirectly provides a base for Al-Qaeda’s rhetoric and a certain type of justification for its terror activities, since the theory argues for the inevitability of the conflict between civilizations, regardless of their political regimes (liberal or totalitarian) with civilizations being determined by their cultural and religious differences—a theme that is used by the
ideologues of political Islam.

Future of NASA and American Space Exploration–An evaluation of Obama's 2010 Space Policy and Kugler's Article on Avoiding the end of NASA

by Pleasant P V

New guidelines for NASA have been proposed by the United States government considering the exploration, scientific and... more New guidelines for NASA have been proposed by the United States government considering the exploration, scientific and technological projects for the next few decades. This paper evaluates the key aspects of President Obama's Space Policy of 2010 and Justin Kugler's article on how the end of the Space Shuttle Era is not the end of NASA (Kugler 8 Aug 2011)1 with conclusion on the future of NASA considering the current economic and political scenario.

Europa i globalizacja 2050 WLprognoza

by Wojtek Lamentowicz

Knowing Future Contingents

by Ezio Di Nucci

Logos & Episteme (forthcoming)

This paper argues that we know the future by applying a
recent solution of the problem of future contingents to... more This paper argues that we know the future by applying a
recent solution of the problem of future contingents to knowledge
attributions about the future. MacFarlane has put forward a version of assessment-context relativism that enables us to assign a truth value 'true' (or 'false') to future contingents such as There Will Be A Sea Battle Tomorrow. Here I argue that the same solution can be applied to knowledge attributions about the future by dismissing three disanalogies between the case of future contingents and the case of knowledge attributions about the future. Therefore none of the traditional conditions for knowledge can be utilized to deny that we know the future, as I argue in the last section.

Wisdom and Futures Studies

by Vahid V. Motlagh

Book Review: Wisdom, Consciousness, and the Future by Tom Lombardo. 461 pages. Bloomington, IN: Xlibris, 2011. ISBN13: 978-1-4628-8360-8. US$23.99 paper

In the coming decades we will witness a new collective enlightenment which many futurists describe as a “significant... more In the coming decades we will witness a new collective enlightenment which many futurists describe as a “significant jump in the collective mental functioning of humanity”. As expected by many writers, contemporary challenges and evolutionary forces will push humanity to a new level of “cosmic consciousness.” And for Lombardo, a core feature of this evolutionary transformation is “heightened future consciousness.”