Evolutionary Economics

The evolutionary origins of human patience: Temporal preferences in chimpanzees, bonobos, and human adults

by Alexandra Rosati

Rosati, A.G., Stevens, J.R., Hare, B., & Hauser, M.D. (2007) Current Biology

To make adaptive choices, individuals must sometimes exhibit patience, forgoing immediate benefits to acquire more... more To make adaptive choices, individuals must sometimes exhibit patience, forgoing immediate benefits to acquire more valuable future rewards. Although humans account for future consequences when making temporal decisions, many animal species wait only a few seconds for delayed benefits. Current research thus suggests a phylogenetic gap between patient humans and impulsive, present-oriented animals, a distinction with implications for our understanding of economic decision making and the origins of human cooperation. On the basis of a series of experimental results, we reject this conclusion. First, bonobos (Pan paniscus) and chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) exhibit a degree of patience not seen in other animals tested thus far. Second, humans are less willing to wait for food rewards than are chimpanzees. Third, humans are more willing to wait for monetary rewards than for food, and show the highest degree of patience only in response to decisions about money involving low opportunity costs. These findings suggest that core components of the capacity for future-oriented decisions evolved before the human lineage diverged from apes. Moreover, the different levels of patience that humans exhibit might be driven by fundamental differences in the mechanisms representing biological versus abstract rewards.

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity

by Alexandra Rosati

Rosati, A.G. & Hare, B. (2011) Biology Letters

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose... more Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Rational decisions: The adaptive nature of context-dependent choice

by Alexandra Rosati

Rosati, A.G. & Stevens, J.R. (2009) In: Rational Animals, Irrational humans (S. Watanabe, A. Young, L. Huber, A. Blaisdell & Y. Yamazaki, eds.).

Although classical economic theory hinges on the assumption that rational actors should seek to maximize gains,... more Although classical economic theory hinges on the assumption that rational actors should seek to maximize gains, psychologists and behavioral economists have recently collected a wealth of evidence challenging this premise. In violation of the principles of rational choice, context appears to dramatically influence human decision making. Like humans, numerous nonhuman animals, ranging from honeybees to primates, are sensitive to context, suggesting deep evolutionary roots for seemingly irrational decision-making. Many psychologists have suggested that such choices may stem from cognitive biases that result in errors. We contend, however, that labeling context-dependent choices as errors obscures the real issue. Natural selection does not create organisms that adhere to economic theory—it creates decision makers that maximize fitness. We review evidence that many species show context-dependence when making decisions and then present a framework for analyzing the adaptive consequences of these choices. We argue for an approach weaving psychological perspectives into an evolutionary framework to elucidate the nature of decision making.

Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets

by Joachim Kaldasch

The Product Life Cycle of Durable Goods

by Joachim Kaldasch

The model presented here derives the product life cycle of durable goods. It is based on the idea that the purchase... more The model presented here derives the product life cycle of durable goods. It is based on the idea that the purchase process consists of first purchase and repurchase. First purchase is determined by the market penetration process (diffusion process), while repurchase is the sum of replacement and multiple purchase. The key property of durables goods is to have a mean lifetime in the order of several years. Therefore replacement purchase creates periodic variations of the unit sales (Juglar cycles) having its origin in the initial diffusion process. 
The theory suggests that there exists two diffusion processes. The first can be described by Bass diffusion and is related to the information spreading process within the social network of potential consumers. The other diffusion process comes into play, when the price of the durable is such, that only those consumers with a sufficient personal income can afford the good. We have to distinguish between a monopoly market and a polypoly/oligopoly market. In the first case periodic variations of the total sales occur caused by the initial Bass diffusion, even when the price is constant. In the latter case the mutual competition between the brands leads with time to a decrease of the mean price. This change is associated with an effective increase of the market volume, which can be interpreted as a diffusion process. Based on an evolutionary approach, it can be shown that the mean price decreases exponentially and the corresponding diffusion process is governed by Gompertz equation (Gompertz diffusion). 
Most remarkable is that Gibrat's rule of proportionate growth is a direct consequence of the competition between the brands. The model allows a derivation of the lognormal size distribution of product sales and the logistic replacement of durables in competition. A comparison with empirical data suggests that the theory describes the main trend of the product life cycle superimposed by short term events like the introduction of new models. 

Evolutionary Model of the Personal Income Distribution

by Joachim Kaldasch

The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free... more The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized system. Based on the idea that the dynamics of an economy is governed by slow modes, the model suggests that for short time intervals a fixed ratio of total labour income (capital income) to net income exists (Cobb-Douglas relation). Explicitly derived is Gibrat’s law from an evolutionary market dynamics of short term fluctuations. The total private income distribution is shown to consist of four main parts. From capital income of private firms the income distribution contains a lognormal distribution for small and a Pareto tail for large incomes. Labour income contributes an exponential distribution. Also included is the income from a social insurance system, approximated by a Gaussian peak. The evolutionary model is able to reproduce the stylized facts of the income distribution, shown by a comparison with empirical data of a high resolution income distribution. The theory suggests that in a free market competition between products is ultimately the origin of the uneven income distribution.

A complex systems approach to the evolutionary dynamics of human history: the case of the Late Medieval World Crisis

by Johannes Preiser-Kapeller

Working Paper for the European Meetings on Cybernetics and Systems Research (EMCSR) 2012, Vienna, University Campus, April 10th 2012 (http://www.emcsr.net/symposium-b-evolution-throughout-the-sciences-and-humanities/) (Slides of the presentation here: http://oeaw.academia.edu/JohannesPreiserKapeller/Talks/78041/A_complex_systems_approach_to_the_evolutionary_dynamics_of_human_history_the_case_of_the_Late_Medieval_World_Crisis)

„There are few theoretical approaches to which historian respond so negatively as to the explanation of historical... more „There are few theoretical approaches to which historian respond so negatively as to the explanation of historical processes by such theories“, the German historian Rainer Waltz states most accurately in his study on „Theories of Social Evolution and History“; there he also presents two main causes for this rejection: a moral one, the perversion of evolutionary thinking in so-called Social Darwinist theories in the 19th and 20th centuries, and a scientific one, the fear of a biologistic interpretation of human history by adopting evolutionary models (Walz, 2004). This distinguishes historical studies from other social sciences and humanities such as anthropology or sociology and even other historical disciplines such as archaeology, where evolutionary models have become part of the methodological toolkit (Renfrew & Bahn, 2008; for a rare example from the field of history of literature cf. Moretti, 2009).
Although most historians are reluctant to adopt evolutionary models (yet alone in their mathematized or sociobiologist form) for the interpretation of human past (respectively the larger or smaller period of time they are specialised in), terms such as “evolution” and concepts of evolutionary thinking such as “adaption” or “selection” are used in numerous descriptions of historical events and processes, albeit often in a metaphorical way (Walz, 2004). At the same time it is evident that major developments in human history such as the emergence of the human kind itself, of human culture and of complex social structures such as states as well as phenomena of long duration (up to the scale of “Big History” from the Big Bang until present times as it has been attempted in the last decades, Spier 2010) cannot be explained without the help of evolutionary concepts (cf. Blute, 2010; Voland, 2009); but again, these subjects refer mainly to the fields of evolutionary biologists and psychologists, anthropologists, sociologists or (prehistoric) archaeologists (cf. Yoffee, 2004). Some specialists from these disciplines have also tried to adapt such concepts for the entire human history beyond its “beginnings”, but have equally found mixed reception among historians, especially if they try to demonstrate some kind of progress in the development of humanity as for instance Steven Pinker has done most recently in his study on “Why Violence has declined” (Pinker, 2011; see also Atran, 2002; Boyd & Richerson, 2005; Morris, 2010).
In contrast to this (non)-use of evolutionary concepts for historical studies, we intend to demonstrate the benefit of a complex evolutionary approach for the analysis of a specific period of late medieval/early modern history between 1200 and 1500 CE, which has been attributed central importance for the so-called “Rise of the West”, since it saw the beginning of European overseas expansion at its end (cf. Goldstone, 2009; Morris, 2010).
In the “calamitous” 14th century, as Barbara Tuchman called it (1978), the medieval world entered a period of severe crisis in demography, economy, politics and religion. This crisis took hold in all regions, ranging from China in the East to England in the West. Even before the catastrophic pandemic of the Black Death (1346-1352), deteriorating climatic conditions had ended the period of demographic and economic expansion that began in the 10th century (Behringer, 2007; Atwell, 2001; Benedictow, 2004; Brook, 2010).
The local and regional impacts and consequences of these general crisis-laden conditions may have differed; outcomes ranged from actual societal collapse to the emergence of powerful new polities. But these conditions provide a framework for global perspective on this period and allow us to use the 14th century-crisis as a field of “natural experiments of history”, as Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson have called them (Diamond & Robinson, 2011); accordingly, we analyse how similar crisis phenomena influenced the development of societies with different (or similar) traditions, religions, institutions, geographies or ecologies (cf. also Borsch, 2005). In particular, we will analyse and compare five polities in the “Old World”, England, Hungary, Byzantium, Egypt and China, of which three disappeared around the end of this period due to the expansion of the most successful newly emerged Ottoman Empire (Byzantium in 1453, Mamluk Egypt in 1517, Hungary in 1526/1541; cf. also Preiser-Kapeller, 2011).
In order to be able to capture variations and complexities within this sample, we adopt concepts and tools provided by the field of complexity science. We understand complex systems as large networks of individual components, whose interactions at the microscopic level produce “complex” changing patterns of behaviour of the whole system on the macroscopic level. In the last decades, historians and social scientists also tried to use concepts of complexity theory for the description of phenomena in their own fields, but again often only in a “metaphoric” way (Gaddis, 2002; Hatcher & Bailey, 2001). Less frequently, though, historians have tried to make use of the mathematical foundations of complexity theory or of quantitative tools provided by this field (Kiel & Elliott, 1997; Preiser-Kapeller, 2012). Recent scholarship has implemented some of these tools especially for the construction of macro-models of socio-economic development (Goldstone, 1991; Turchin, 2003; Turchin & Nefedov, 2009).
In addition, we combine complexity theory with the analytical framework of “systems theory” developed by the German sociologist Niklas Luhmann (1927-1998) in order to capture the interdependencies between politics, economy and religion within a polity and with the political, economic and ecological environment (Luhmann, 1997; Becker & Reinhardt-Becker, 2001; Becker, 2004). Luhmann´s theory is valuable for our analysis in various aspects; it makes us aware of the reduction of environmental and social complexity which is reflected in our historical sources, and it provides a framework to approach complex mechanisms within and the dependencies between various social spheres and their environment. Its evolutionary aspects have also been analysed by Walz (2004). In addition, we employ methods and tools of network analysis, which allow us to capture, analyse and model linkages and cause-effect correlations in society, economy, politics and religion on the macro- and micro-level down to groups and individuals (Gould, 2003; Lemercier, 2005).
Overall, our analytical approach allows us to capture the “diversité véritable” without losing track of essential commonalities (the “strange parallels”, as Victor Liebermann has called them, 2009) with regard to the transformation of polities and societies and their adaption to this “first world crisis”. Thereby, the value of a framework of evolutionary dynamics for the exploration of human history will be demonstrated

References
Atran, S. (2002). In Gods We Trust. The Evolutionary Landscape of Religion. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Atwell, W. S. (2001). Volcanism and Short-Term Climatic Change in East Asian and World History, c. 1200–1699. Journal of World History 12/1, 29-98.
Becker, F. & Reinhardt-Becker, E. (2001). Systemtheorie. Eine Einführung für die Geschichts- und Kulturwissenschaften. Frankfurt, New York: Campus Verlag.
Becker, F. (Ed.). (2004). Geschichte und Systemtheorie. Exemplarische Fallstudien. Frankfurt, New York: Campus Verlag.
Behringer, W. (2007). Kulturgeschichte des Klimas. Von der Eiszeit bis zur globalen Erwärmung. Munich: C. H. Beck.
Benedictow, O. J. (2004). The Black Death 1346–1353. The Complete History. Woodbridge: Boydell & Brewer Inc.
Blute, M. (2010). Darwinian Sociocultural Evolution. Solutions to Dilemmas in Cultural and Social Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Borsch, St. J. (2005). The Black Death in Egypt and England. A Comparative Study. Austin: University of Texas Press.
Boyd, R. & Richerson, P. J. (2005). The Origin and Evolution of Cultures. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Brook, T. (2010). The troubled Empire. China in the Yuan and Ming Dynasties. Cambridge (Mass.), London: Harvard University Press.
Diamond, J. & Robinson, J. A. (Eds.). (2011). Natural Experiments of History. Cambridge (Mass.), London: Harvard University Press.
Gaddis, J. L. (2002). The Landscape of History. How Historians map the Past. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Goldstone, J. A. (1991). Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Goldstone, J. A. (2009). Why Europe? The Rise of the West in World History, 1500–1850. New York: Mcgraw-Hill Higher Education.
Gould, R. V. (2003). Uses of Network Tools in Comparative Historical Research. In: J. Mahoney & D. Rueschemeyer (Eds.). Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences (p. 241-269). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hatcher, J. & Bailey, M. (2001). Modelling the Middle Ages. The History and Theory of England´s Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kiel, L. D. & Elliott, E. (Eds.). (1997). Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences. Foundations and Applications. Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan Press.
Lemercier, Cl. (2005). Analyse de réseaux et histoire. Revue d’histoire moderne et contemporaine 52/2, 88-112.
Lieberman, L. (2009). Strange Parallels. Southeast Asia in Global Context, c. 800–1830. Vol. 2: Mainland Mirrors: Europe, Japan, China, South Asia, and the Islands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Luhmann, N. (1997). Die Gesellschaft der Gesellschaft. 2 Vols., Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp Verlag.
Moretti, F. (2009). Kurven, Karten, Stammbäume. Abstrakte Modelle für die Literaturgeschichte. Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp Verlag.
Morris, I. (2010). Why The West Rules For Now: The Patterns of History and what they reveal about the Future. London: Profile Books.
Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of our Nature. Why Violence has declined. London: Viking.
Preiser-Kapeller, J. (2012). Complex historical dynamics of crisis: the case of Byzantium. In: A. Suppan (Ed.). Krise und Transformation (in print). Vienna: Austrian Academy Press (pre-print online: http://oeaw.academia.edu/JohannesPreiserKapeller/Papers/506625/Complex_historical_dynamics_of_crisis_the_case_of_Byzantium).
Preiser-Kapeller, J. (2011). (Not so) Distant Mirrors: a complex macro-comparison of polities and political, economic and religious systems in the crisis of the 14th century. In: A. Simon (Ed.). Proceedings of the International Conference "The Angevin Dynasty (14th Century)" in Târgoviște (Romania), October 21st-23rd 2011 (forthcoming). Vienna: Peter Lang (working Paper online: http://oeaw.academia.edu/JohannesPreiserKapeller/Papers/506595/_Not_so_Distant_Mirrors_a_complex_macro-comparison_of_polities_and_political_economic_and_religious_systems_in_the_crisis_of_the_14th_century)
Renfrew, C. & Bahn, P. (2008). Archaeology: Theories, Methods and Practice. London: Thames & Hudson.
Spier, F. (2010). Big History and the Future of Humanity. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Tuchman, B. (1978). A Distant Mirror. The calamitous 14th Century. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
Turchin, P. & Nefedov, S. A. (2010). Secular cycles. Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press.
Turchin, P. (2003). Historical Dynamics. Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity). Princeton, Oxford: Princeton University Press.
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Yoffee, N. (2004). Myths of the Archaic State. Evolution of the Earliest Cities, States, and Civilizations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

FARMERS'REASONS FOR ENGAGING IN BIOENERGY UTILISATION

by Melf-Hinrich Ehlers

Variety generation and price evolution in the ski manufacturing industry

by Marco Guerzoni

Reply to Henrich et al.: Behavioral variation needs to be quantified at multiple levels

by Shakti Lamba

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2012)

'Knowledge management practices' and path-dependency in innovation

by Richard Hull

The construction of the techno-economic: networks vs. paradigms

by Richard Hull

Sistemas sociotécnicos, innovación y desarrollo.

by Leandro Lepratte

Reproductive selection and human evolution: An empirical analysis for Spain, 2010

by Diego Varela

Working paper.

In this paper I investigate whether there is an economic bias in the reproduction of humans in Spain using data from... more In this paper I investigate whether there is an economic bias in the reproduction of humans in Spain using data from the Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (Household Budget Survey) of 2010. The main result is that parents that are income earners tend to earn 16% more than other income earners of equal age and gender. Parents also have greater probability of being income earners than the rest of the population of equal age and gender. I argue that the contribution of such reproductive selection to economic development can be as high as half a percentage point per year.

Traiter les archives de la toile. Une histoire d´ un systeme d´ information dans une communauté: WordPress (2003-2008)

by Emmanuel Ruzé

Un article de méthodologie en histoire économique, un des premiers concernant l'analyse des archives numériques avec une perspective historique.

Collaboration massivement distribuée et gestion du savoir en ligne: le cas du wiki de la communauté WordPress (2003-2008).«Code is Poetry», but «a …

by Emmanuel Ruzé

Ma thèse de doctorat. Je me permets de citer la conclusion du rapport de soutenance de François-Xavier de Vaujany, le rapporteur le plus prolixe :

"Finalement, le candidat a démontré dans ce travail doctoral de qualité (appliqué à un objet encore peu exploré) de réelles qualités de chercheur. Les données traitées sont impressionnantes, leur formatage également. L'écriture est d'une réflexivité rare et les analyses débouchent sur de véritables contributions conceptuelles et managériales."

Et celle de J-M Dalle, dans un rapport qui ne contient aucune critique:

"Monsieur Ruzé démontre au cours de son travail l’ampleur et la variété des ressources qu’il est capable de mobiliser en vue de soutenir les thèses qu’il défend."

Constructing knowledge landscapes within the framework of geometrically oriented evolutionary theories

by Andrea Scharnhorst

A. Scharnhorst: Constructing Knowledge Landscapes within the Framework of Geometrically Oriented Evolutionary Theories. In: Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Sciences – Systems Science 2000. Ed. by M. Matthies, H. Malchow, J. Kriz. Springer, Berlin, 2001, pp. 505-515

Virtual knowledge landscapes are constructed from empirical data to visualize and to understand search and innovation... more Virtual knowledge landscapes are constructed from empirical data to visualize and to understand search and innovation processes in science and technology. In this paper we discuss how geometrically oriented evolution theories (G_O_E_THE) may represent an appropriate framework for the empirical design of such knowledge landscapes as well as for theoretical explanations of observable, dynamic processes therein. G_O_E_THE describes evolution as a competitive hill-climbing process of different searchers or searching groups in an unknown adaptive landscape over a continuous characteristics space. In this chapter we discuss the application of this framework to the dynamics of national science systems in the international scientific communication system.

Measurig Globalisation: An Evolutionary Economic Approach to Tracking the Evolution of International Trade

by Tim Kastelle

The Evolving Nature of Taiwan's National Innovation System: The Case of Biotechnology Innovation Networks

by Tim Kastelle

Organisational diversity, evolution and cladistic classifications

by Ian McCarthy

McCarthy, I.P., Leseure, M., Ridgway, K., and Fieller, N. 2000. Organisational Diversity, Evolution and Cladistic Classifications.The International Journal of Management Science - OMEGA, 28, 77-95.

This article presents a case for the construction of a formal classification of manufacturing systems using... more This article presents a case for the construction of a formal classification of manufacturing systems using cladistics, a technique from the biological school of classification. A seven-stage framework for producing a manufacturing cladogram is presented, along with a pilot case study example. This article describes the role that classification plays in the pure and applied sciences, the social sciences and reviews the status of existing manufacturing classifications. If organisational diversity and organisational change processes are governed by evolutionary mechanisms, studies of organisations based on an evolutionary approach such as cladistics could have potential, because as March [March JG. The evolution of evolution. In: Baum JAC, Singh JV, editors. Evolutionary dynamics of organizations. Oxford University Press, 1994. p. 39±52], page 45, states ``there is natural speculation that organisations, like species can be engineered by understanding the evolutionary processes well enough to intervene and produce competitive organisational effects''. It is suggested that a cladistic study could provide organisations with a ``knowledge map'' of the ecosystem in which they exist and by using this phylogenetic and situational analysis, they could determine coherent and appropriate action for the specification of change.