Electoral Behavior

Populist Party Choice in Germany and The Netherlands: The Protest Vote Hypothesis Revisited

by Bengü Hosch-Dayican

Paper presented at the 10th Dutch-Belgian Political Science Conference (Politicologenetmaal), Amsterdam, 9-10 June 2011

The outcomes of recent parliamentary elections in Germany (2009) and The Netherlands (2010) have provided clear... more The outcomes of recent parliamentary elections in Germany (2009) and The Netherlands (2010) have provided clear evidence for significant changes in both party systems. The increasing party system fragmentation and voter volatility in these contexts have been associated with the rise of populist challengers which have achieved remarkable success at these elections. This paper aims at analysing the backgrounds of this sudden electoral success by revisiting the protest vote hypothesis, which offers plausible explanations for populist party choice in various Western democracies but at the same time challenged by the issue and ideological voting hypothesis. I suggest that one could systematically merge the two concepts to differentiate between instrumental and expressive types of protest vote, which lead to a better understanding of populist party vote and its consequences for electoral volatility. The findings of the preliminary analysis of this new protest vote model suggests that instrumental protest vote is more general in The Netherlands, where there is a variety of populist alternatives in the party system. On the contrary, expressive protest vote has been found to be the primary protest vote type in Germany where the populist left party is not challenged by any other populist contesters.

Do Mixed Systems Encourage Voter Turnout? A Statistical Analysis

by Patrick Button

2008, Honours Paper, Department of Economics, University of Regina

Redibujando el Mapa Electoral Chileno: Incidencia de Factores Socio-Económicos y de Género en las Urnas.

by David Altman

[2004] Revista de Ciencia Política 24 (2): 49-66

Este artículo estudia el cambio de clivajes en el Chile post autoritario usando evidencia electoral y socio–económica... more Este artículo estudia el cambio de clivajes en el Chile post autoritario usando evidencia electoral y socio–económica que va más allá de elecciones presidenciales y datos de opinión pública. Esta investigación determina que las condiciones socio económicas (medidas a través del Índice de Desarrollo Humano)
tienen los efectos esperados en cuanto al porcentaje de votos recibidos por las dos coaliciones mayoritarias del país (la coalición gubernamental Concertación y el bloque opositor Alianza). En términos generales, la Concertación obtiene mejores resultados en las comunas de mayor índice de desarrollo humano y la Alianza en comunas con niveles más bajos de desarrollo humano. Si consideramos los efectos
curvilíneos, la Alianza por Chile vota mejor en las comunas con valores extremos de IDH y la Concertación dentro de las comunas con valores medios. En otras palabras, la Concertación presenta una distribución con forma de U invertida (∩) y la Alianza lo opuesto (∪). Respecto al voto de la mujer, se puede afirmar que, si bien tiende a favorecer a los partidos de la Alianza por Chile, simultáneamente tiende significativamente a votar más a las mujeres que a los hombres, dándose así una suerte de solidaridad de género.

Age, Period and Cohort Effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany: An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992–2009)

by Bram Vanhoutte

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system.... more Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and this article first expands previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age–period–cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992–2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.

Identitat o càlculs instrumentals? Anàlisi dels factors explicatius del suport a la independència

by Raul Tormos

co-authored with Jordi Muñoz

A Failure to Preference: UK and Electoral Reform

by Jonathon Louth

The Election Review, April, 2012

An edited version of this article appeared on The Daily Organ, April 4, 2012:
'The Power of Preferences: The UK... more An edited version of this article appeared on The Daily Organ, April 4, 2012:
'The Power of Preferences: The UK and the Alternative Vote: A missed opportunity…'
http://www.dailyorgan.com/2012/04/the-power-of-preferences/

The full and hyperlinked version is is available at the Election Review, April 10, 2012:
'A Failure to Preference: UK and Electoral Reform'
http://theelectionreview.com/a-failure-to-preference-uk-and-electoral-reform/

Mobilising the Youth Vote: The Future of British Democracy

by Jonathon Louth

Refereed paper (with Lisa Hill) presented to the Australasian Political Studies Association conference University of Newcastle, Australia, 25-27 September 2006

Despite the slight increase recorded at the 2005 poll, turnout at British national elections continues to be low. The... more Despite the slight increase recorded at the 2005 poll, turnout at British national elections continues to be low. The slight rise in turnout was driven by the increased voting participation of baby boomers whereas the youth vote dipped well below the fifty percent mark. This is worrying, not only because youth is a surrogate for other forms of social and economic exclusion, but also because it augurs ill for the future of British democracy.
Although the low voting turnout of the young was once dismissed as merely a life-cycle phenomenon, this no longer appears to be true with the early low participation habits of young people apparently becoming entrenched over time.
In Britain a number of reforms have been instituted to stem the tide of electoral demobilisation but none have been particularly successful. Since such piecemeal reforms seem unable to solve the problem, we recommend compulsory voting as the most reliable means of raising voting participation. And, as we show, compulsory voting has a good chance of being adopted in Britain due to its growing popularity with both policy makers and the public.

Un análisis del efecto de la Ley de igualdad en la representación electoral, parlamentaria y en el comportamiento electoral de las mujeres en las elecciones generales de 2008

by Álvaro Martínez Pérez

Co-authored with Kerman Calvo
Piblished in Estudios de Progreso series, Fundación Alternativas, 2010

Imprensa e voto nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2002 e 2006

by Pedro Santos Mundim

Published in "Revista de Sociologia & Política", v. 20, n. 41, p. 123-147, fev. 2012.

O artigo apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa sobre os efeitos da cobertura da imprensa no voto nas eleições... more O artigo apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa sobre os efeitos da cobertura da imprensa no voto nas eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2002 e 2006. Argumenta-se que ela foi um fator importante em ambos os pleitos. A variável dependente é formada pelas séries históricas de intenção de voto dos principais candidatos: Lula (Partido dos Trabalhadores), Serra (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira), Garotinho
(Partido Socialista Brasileiro) e Ciro (Partido Popular Socialista) em 2002, e Lula, Alckmin (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira), Heloísa Helena (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade) e Cristovam Buarque (Partido Democrático Trabalhista) em 2006. A principal variável explicativa é a cobertura eleitoral de quatro grandes jornais do país: Folha de S. Paulo, O Estado de S. Paulo, O Globo e Jornal do Brasil. Completam o modelo as seguintes variáveis de controle: propaganda partidária dos candidatos, o Horário Político Gratuito Eleitoral no 1º e 2º turnos, os debates presidenciais e o índice de popularidade presidencial. Os modelos foram estimados via MQO. Os resultados dos testes indicam que, em 2002, a cobertura da imprensa de Lula e Ciro Gomes foi uma das responsáveis pela variação observada nas suas respectivas intenções de voto. Em 2006, a dinâmica foi um pouco mais complexa. Apenas as intenções de voto em Heloísa Helena foram afetadas por sua própria cobertura. A princípio, é surpreendente que a cobertura extremamente negativa de Lula não tenha lhe custado votos. Mas ela teve um impacto indireto, e importante, para Alckmin e Cristovam Buarque. Como esse impacto foi maior durante o escândalo do dossiê tucano, podese afirmar que a cobertura da imprensa contribuiu decisivamente para a ocorrência do 2º turno na última eleição presidencial. Esses resultados mantêm-se mesmo quando se analisam os votos de eleitores de grupos de escolaridade distintos, um controle para os diferentes níveis de exposição aos jornais

Explorando La Dinámica Del Abstencionismo Electoral, Ponencia Presentada En El Seminario De Análisis De Encuestas Nacionales Sobre Cultura Política Y …

by Benjamin Temkin

13 Getting a single message? The Impact of Homogeneous Political Communication Contexts in Spain in a Comparative Perspective

by Laura Morales

In M. Wolf, L. Morales & K. Ikeda, Political Discussion in Modern Democracies in a Comparative Perspective, Routledge, 2010

In this chapter, I examine citizens’ voting decisions with an encompassing approach that takes into consideration the... more In this chapter, I examine citizens’ voting decisions with an encompassing approach that takes into consideration the major intermediation contexts that are likely to have an impact on their final electoral choices, by focusing on their political homogeneity. Starting from the closest intermediation environments in which citizens are embedded (their social networks), the analytical model also incorporates the ‘meso’ level networks and contexts – provided by voluntary organisations and, especially, political parties – as well as the wider communicational environment provided by media messages.

Participação Política e Desenho Institucional: Uma Proposta Para a Concepção De Mecanismos Participativos / Political participation and institutional design: A proposal for the conception of participatory mechanisms

by Francisco Paulo Jamil Marques

Title in English: Political participation and institutional design: A proposal for the conception of participatory... more Title in English: Political participation and institutional design: A proposal for the conception of participatory mechanisms. Text in Portuguese. Abstract in English available: This paper focuses on the study and development of those institutional innovations conceived to promote participatory practices in contemporary democracies. In a first moment, one considers some of the main arguments addressing the scope, limits and the effects of the institutional design on the political game. Then, the article explores, through a brief history regarded the configuration modes of modern democracies, the relationship between institutional design and political participation. This fact calls the attention to the need of a change in the current institutional design of democracies. Finally, one proposes the idea that three features must be taken into account in any attempt to offer effective mechanisms of participation in the decision-making process: (a) to improve citizens’ repertoire of skills and political information; (b) to pay attention to motivational factors that encourage the involvement in politics; (c) to be careful about the setting and the availability of input channels whose goal is to lead the contributions of civil sphere.

Sobre a Comunicação Político-Partidária na Internet: Um Estudo dos Informativos Digitais do PT e do PSDB / Political party communications on the Internet: a study of the digital newsletters of the PT and the PSDB

by Francisco Paulo Jamil Marques

Title in English: Political party communications on the Internet: a study of the digital newsletters of the PT and the... more Title in English: Political party communications on the Internet: a study of the digital newsletters of the PT and the PSDB. Text in Portuguese. Abstract in English available: The purpose of this work is to evaluate how Brazilian political parties use their newsletters distributed by e-mail, which are intended to provide opinion-forming information for citizens with access to the Internet. The main question here is how President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva s administration is characterized in two specific newsletters: the first, called Informes PT, produced by the leadership of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers Party) in the Chamber of Deputies; the second, called Diário Tucano, published by the leadership of the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party), which opposes President Lula's administration in Congress. At certain points, the argumentative dispute about certain issues extends beyond the floor of Congress, reaching the Internet through party websites and newsletters. The news and opinions set forth in the aforementioned newsletters is analyzed to ascertain to what extent these two main Brazilian parties use the Internet as another instrument to compete for citizens votes and political support. The main conclusion is that the conventional media (such as radio and television) still receives the major portion of attention and investment by Brazilian parties and their media consultants, who have yet to learn how to deal with a medium that can provide more interactive opportunities for political participation and discussion..

The impact of Internet on electoral discourse in 2009 Romanian presidential campaign

by Sebastian Nastuta

Key words: blogs, politics, Romania, elections, campaigns

In recent years, new media technologies and the Internet increasingly
invaded people’s lives. Starting with the... more In recent years, new media technologies and the Internet increasingly
invaded people’s lives. Starting with the USA and Japan, continuing with
Western Europe and finally with post-communist countries (new
democracies), daily use of emails, Internet, mobile phones, PDA,
Blackberry, IPhone, etc. became more and more important and have had
great impact on people’s social relations, on language, social practices and
interactions. In this context, advertising discourse and techniques
(commercial, electoral) were strongly oriented to use these communication
platforms.
The evolution of electoral communication from traditional media to new
media technologies increased the numbers of persons who receive the
political messages and the speed of spreading information. The relation
between a political candidate and his or her voters, and discourse style or
political language was radically changed.
This “new electoral communication” is characterized by personalization,
interactivity, unlimited and instant discourse creation/ dissemination. We can
easily discuss an “open to all” process of discourse creation (in virtual
communities from blogosphere).
For sure, the 2008 U.S. Presidential election was the greatest example in
this direction and a template to be applied by many political consultants in
the following years. The way Barack Obama used tools like emails,
Youtube, Facebook, MySpace, etc. became an example for the 2009
Romanian presidential election campaign.
Like never before in electoral processes in Romania, the Internet became
the perfect environment for negative campaigns. Pseudo-websites for
counter-candidate denigration, radicalization of electoral discourse, people’s
sharp segregation in two groups pro and against the president, censored
televised debates, sofistical argumentation, strange campaign subjects like
“fight against the Communism”, rude behaviour at official ceremonies, were
just a few characteristics of this campaign. The Internet had a fundamental
role in disseminating these negative messages and provided an
environment where people were involved in political action by freely and
aggressively expressing their feelings and beliefs.
This paper will analyse the content of the most visited blogs and websites to
underline the specificity (language style and content) of the electoral
discourse in 2009 in Romania and, comparing with other previous campaign
discourses, will try to understand if the Internet (or other factors) facilitated
the dissemination of this aggresive political language.

Political Apathy: A Curable Malady for Ukraine?

by Paul Pryce

Published in e-International Relations, November 2011

The 2011 Parliamentary Election in Latvia

by Paul Pryce

Published in the Journal of Electoral Studies, June 2012

Explorando las dinámicas territoriales del voto en una sociedad fragmentada : el despliegue institucional "formal" y el arraigo electoral "real" de los partidos políticos en Guatemala (1985-2003)

by Luis Fernando Mack

Centro de Estudios Mexicanos y Centroamericanos - CEMCA, Insitut des Hautes Etudes de l'Amérique Latine - IHEAL, Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo - BID, 2005, coord. Willibald Sonnleitner, 111 pag,
code ISSN 0185-6286, formato 21 x 27.7

El trabajo realiza un análisis introductorio de tipo territorial sobre el desempeño electoral de los partidos... more El trabajo realiza un análisis introductorio de tipo territorial sobre el desempeño electoral de los partidos políticos desde 1985 al 2003, tratando de desentrañar la lógica política que está detrás de estos fenómenos.

Electoral turnout in Johannesburg: socio-economic and political determinants

by Christine Fauvelle-Aymar

EL DESEMPEÑO INSTITUCIONAL DE LOS PARTIDOS POLÍTICOS EN GUATEMALA

by Luis Fernando Mack

Cuadernos de Información Política No. 4
Abril de 2006
Area de Investigación Sociopolítica de FLACSO Guatemala

Desde la ciencia política, uno de los principales indicadores de institucionalidad partidaria es el de permanencia en... more Desde la ciencia política, uno de los principales indicadores de institucionalidad partidaria es el de permanencia en el tiempo —Honduras, por ejemplo, tiene dos partidos que datan de inicios del siglo pasado el partido liberal tiene más de 100 años, ya que fue fundado en 1901—, y si se tiene en mente este dato, empiezan a aparecer incoherencias cuando se analizan a los partidos políticos en Guatemala: el único partido que tiene más de 20 años de existencia es la Democracia Cristiana Guatemalteca (DCG), con una organización municipal declarada para el 2004 en 330 municipalidades y con el mayor número de afiliación registrada en el Tribunal Supremo Electoral (más de 80,000 afiliados).

Además, a la DCG se le puede considerar dentro del selecto grupo de partidos que han hecho gobierno, ya que fue ganador de la contienda electoral de 1985, aparte de que quedó en tercer lugar en las elecciones de 1990; sin embargo, desapareció con más pena que gloria en el 2007 sin casi dejar rastro. ¿Cómo se explica esto?

Si consideramos los hechos anteriormente citados, el presente trabajo pretende plantear algunas pistas para entender el complejo y contradictorio desempeño institucional de los partidos políticos con miras a desentrañar la lógica institucional que subyace tras los fenómenos
que ocurren en la democracia guatemalteca.

REFORMA POLÍTICA: a breve história de um “projeto-travesti”

by Silverio Zebral

O presente artigo oferece uma visão crítica do projeto de reforma política ora consolidado na PEC no. 352 /05... more O presente artigo oferece uma visão crítica do projeto de reforma política ora consolidado na PEC no. 352 /05 recentemente aprovada na Comissão de Constituição e Justiça da Câmara dos Deputados. O artigo advoga que o projeto mencionado fere diversos princípios fundadores da ordem liberal (direto à livre escolha e iniciativa, direito de propriedade, representação imperativa etc...) oferecendo argumentos articulados em torno do marco teórico neoinstitucionalista, descortinando problemas de sequenciamento, path dependence, free-rider, moral hazard, oportunismo e conseqüências não pretendidas. O trabalho analisa a proposta de reforma dos principais institutos que disciplinam o sistema político-eleitoral com destaque para a cláusula de desempenho, coligações partidárias em eleições proporcionais, verticalização das coligações, listas fechadas pré-ordenadas e financiamento público de campanhas. Oferece ainda sugestões de reformas alternativas pontuais mais eficientes e politicamente menos custosas.