Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Dual properties of the relative belief of singletons

by Fabio Cuzzolin

A study of Bayesian approximations of belief functions in the probability simplex

by Fabio Cuzzolin

Book Review of Sandra Mitchell (2009) Unsimple Truths. Science, Complexity, and Policy.

by Jeroen Van Bouwel

In: Science & Education (forthcoming).

Information-sharing and aggregation models for interacting minds

by Piotr Migdal

"L'incertitude comme menace"

by Claude-Olivier Doron

Draft to be published in Deprins, D. (ed.), Parier sur l'incertitude, Bruxelles, Bruylant, 2012

Through an analysis focusing on penal policies and how they deal with "uncertainty", this article wants to... more Through an analysis focusing on penal policies and how they deal with "uncertainty", this article wants to distinguish between different ways of perceiving and governing uncertainty, what we call different "rationalities" dealing with uncertainty.

The mask of the symptoms

by Marcelo Manucci

The gap between environmental demands and the ability to adapt and respond generates symptoms in a human system. In a... more The gap between environmental demands and the ability to adapt and respond generates symptoms in a human system. In a system that has lost its ability to make decisions, the symptom decides for the system. In general terms, the masks have the function to hide some features while others becoming visible. Thus, masks are functional elements for interaction. The game of hide and show is only feasible in a wider context of significance. Without context, masks are worthless.

Military Cognitive Readiness at the Operational and Strategic Levels: A Theoretical Model for Measurement Development

by Rebecca Grier

Published online in advance of the print version in JCEDM

Military cognitive readiness is a somewhat new concept that has been defined many ways. In this article, I review... more Military cognitive readiness is a somewhat new concept that has been defined many ways. In this article, I review these definitions and propose that cognitive readiness is not just one construct, but three inter-related constructs akin to the military levels of war and readiness (tactical, operational, & strategic). Each of these
constructs requires cognitive performance in complex, uncertain, and stressful military operations. However, the nature of performance is different for each. Thus, each level of cognitive readiness requires different measures. As a first step in the development of measures for operational and strategic cognitive readiness, a review of research related to predicting cognitive performance in complex, uncertain, and stressful operations was conducted. From this review a set of inherent psychological factors and their measures were identified. The article concludes by indicating what future steps are needed to develop measures of both operational and strategic readiness.

CONSEQUENTIAL AND DECISION VALUE AND THE IRRELEVANCE OF IRRELEVANT ALTERNATIVES IN CHOICE PROBLEMS

by Amir Konigsberg

In this paper I propose a distinction between consequential and decision value in the
rational assessment of... more In this paper I propose a distinction between consequential and decision value in the
rational assessment of choice. By making this distinction I provide an alternative
taxonomy for dealing with rational choice problems. I introduce the notion of decision
value, and show that it can explain a wider spectrum of choice problems than can be
explained using consequential value alone. Perhaps more importantly, I show that
decision value can make sense of choice problems that are considered irrational when
assessed only by their consequential value. In doing so, I show that the
consequentialist standard of rational choice, which I take to be the consensual means
of addressing choice problems, is too strong, as are the internal consistency standards
of rationality that are closely related to it. The paper has two aims: to introduce the
notion of decision value into the taxonomy by which choice problems are evaluated.
And to demonstrate the implications that the notion of decision value has for the
accepted normative standards of rational choice. In perusing the latter aim, I will
address the internal consistency conditions of rational choice as they are expressed in
the principle of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Using the notion of
decision value, I propose a model of choice behavior which demonstrates that because
the IIA only considers consequential (or "internal") value, and not decision value, it is
too strong as a standard for rational choice.
Powered

The Political Imaginary of Care: Generic versus Singular Futures

by Christopher Groves

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity

by Alexandra Rosati

Rosati, A.G. & Hare, B. (2011) Biology Letters

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose... more Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Raw material availability, flaking quality, and hunter-gatherer technological decision making in Northern Tierra del Fuego Island (Southern South America).

by Karen Borrazzo

Borrazzo, K. 2012. Raw material availability, flaking quality, and hunter-gatherer technological decision making in Northern Tierra del Fuego Island (Southern South America). Journal of Archaeological Science, in press.

The technological organization and lithic raw material procurement of Holocene hunter-gatherers have been topics of... more The technological organization and lithic raw material procurement of Holocene hunter-gatherers have been topics of considerable interest in northern Tierra del Fuego Island. Ongoing archaeological investigations indicate that most of the rocks employed by native human populations came from secondary deposits of fluvio-glacial and marine origin. However, a primary geological source for two distinctive lithologies has been recently discovered near the Chorrillo Miraflores Valley (Tierra del Fuego, Chile). These raw materials became the focus of further research since one of them (a silicified tuff) has been identified in several archaeological sites of Tierra del Fuego. Some of these sites are located more than a hundred kilometers away from the source. A regional survey of potential lithic sources along with petrographic and geochemical analyses confirmed that the silicified tuff is only available at Chorrillo Miraflores. Here we present the technological analysis of artifacts manufactured on Miraflores silicified tuff that were recovered from the Argentine portion of northern Tierra del Fuego composed of Espíritu Santo and San Sebastian Capes. The role of utilitarian currencies in the prehistoric use of this lithology is assessed through the application of the Metcalfe and Barlow (1992) field-processing model. The results show that this raw material may not have been exclusively selected for its flaking quality, although an alternative functional efficiency hypothesis is also introduced. Finally, its spatially restricted availability as well as unique macroscopic aspect suggests its selection and use may have been mainly influenced by social factors.

Keywords: lithic raw material, flaking quality, transport, lithic technology, hunter-gatherer, Tierra del Fuego.

Market entry timing, uncertainty and temporal agglomeration: The case of the Hollywood cinema industry

by sebastien liarte

Co-authored with Manuel Cartier
Published in M@n@gement, 13, 2, 70-98

The aim of this article is to show that firms opt for temporal agglomeration (entering the market at the same time as... more The aim of this article is to show that firms opt for temporal agglomeration (entering the market at the same time as their competitors) when uncertainty concerning the success of their products is particularly significant. An analysis of the major Hollywood studios from 2000 to 2006 shows that these firms limit uncertainty by adopting similar behaviours. Results show that a combination of factors lead to the agglomeration of film release dates. Budgets and styles are used as reference points by players in the industry; Oscar and day-off effects are strong. Rules and standards relating to the process of selection limit firms’ behaviour. More than a deliberate strategy, temporal agglomeration seems to emerge from complex interactions, increasing competition and thus decreasing the movies’ market performance.

Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

by Marjolijn Haasnoot

published in climatic change

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water... more Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.

A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future

by Marjolijn Haasnoot

published in Sustainable Development

Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation... more Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identifi cation of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what-if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water and the social system. Moreover, the two systems interact: society responds to events and the state of the water system changes in response to management. In this paper we discuss a transdisciplinary approach. Key elements in the concept are (1) the model of pressure, state, impact and response, (2) the Perspectives method to consider uncertainties of social and natural systems and (3) the evaluation of the system using transient scenarios in which we consider time series of trends, events and interaction between the water system and society. The effect analysis is executed with an integrated assessment meta-model based on simple cause–effect relations and response curves.

A Method to Explore Social Response for Sustainable Water Management Strategies Under Changing Conditions

by Marjolijn Haasnoot

co-authored with Astrid Offermans. Publish in Sustainable Development

Society aims at sustainable water management, which means that it is effective (meeting targets for people, planet and... more Society aims at sustainable water management, which means that it is effective (meeting targets for people, planet and profi t), robust (able to cope with uncertainties) and flexible (easily adaptable to changing conditions). The past has demonstrated that extreme weather events and their impacts are important triggers for adaptations in water management. Furthermore, societal changes or events lead to changes in perception of desired situations, goals, and valuation of costs and benefi ts. Insight into the dynamic nature of societal perspectives and responses provides information about the (non-) support and sustainability of water management strategies. The method presented here comprises the ‘Perspectives method’, derived from Cultural Theory to classify, analyze and explore present and future perspectives and according social response. These are presented in a so-called perspective

Using Adaptation Tipping Points to Prepare for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: a Case Study In the Netherlands

by Marjolijn Haasnoot

published in WIREs Climate change
co-authored with Jaap Kwadijk

Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To... more Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long-termwatermanagement planning in the Netherlands, we carried out a study that started at the opposite end of the effect chain. In the study we refer to three aspects of water management, flood defense, drinking water supply, and protection of the Rotterdam Harbour. We examined whether, and for how long, current water management strategies will continue to be effective under different climate change scenarios. We did this by applying the concept of ‘adaptation tipping points’, and reached it if themagnitude of change is such that the current management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. Beyond the tipping points, an alternative adaptive strategy is needed.
By applying this approach, the following basic questions of decision makers are answered: what are the first issues that we will face as a result of climate change and when can we expect this. The results show, for instance, that climate change and the rise in sea level aremore likely to cause a threat to the freshwater supply in the west of the Netherlands than flooding. Expressing uncertainty in terms of the period that the existing strategy is effective (when will a critical point be reached) was found to be useful for the policy makers.

Fighting the Pipe: neo-liberal governance and barriers to effective community participation in energy infrastructure planning

by Christopher Groves

Co-authored with Prof. Max Munday (Cardiff Business School) and Dr Natalia Yakovleva (University of Winchester). Submitted to Environment and Planning C.

Developing effective participatory mechanisms within infrastructure planning governance has been represented as... more Developing effective participatory mechanisms within infrastructure planning governance has been represented as depending on how far the outputs of participatory processes have an impact upon strategic policy priorities. However, neoliberal modes of governance are characterised by “recentralisation” within arms-length regulatory bodies and private corporations. Tensions between participatory governance and re-centralisation are exemplified by the relationship between energy privatisation and energy infrastructure planning, which is illustrated by a case study of a major critical infrastructure project from the UK, the South Wales Gas Pipeline. Findings from this study confirm arguments in the literature that siting conflicts often centre on policy issues as much as local concerns. They also suggest that neoliberal recentralisation of some governance functions exacerbate such conflicts. While new efforts to secure effective participation are necessary in neoliberal regimes, they will face obstacles in the form of risk-based governance structures, as exemplified by the privatised energy sector.

Influence de l'incertitude objective et du système de coûts sur la latence et la certitude subjective, dans une situation de jugement prédictif

by Guy Tiberghien

An implementation of extended P-log using XASP

by The Anh Han

ICLP 2008

We propose a new approach for implementing P-log using XASP, the interface of XSB with Smodels. By using the tabling... more We propose a new approach for implementing P-log using XASP, the interface of XSB with Smodels. By using the tabling mechanism of XSB, our system is most of the times faster than P-log. In addition, our implementation has query features not supported by P-log, as well as new set operations for domain definition.

Adaptability of nursing handovers: contingency theory shows the limits of standardization

by Eric Mayor

Cite as: Mayor, E. (2011). Adaptability of nursing handovers: contingency theory shows the limits of standardization. Studies in Communication Sciences, 11, 173-194.

Nursing shift handovers are institutional routines aimed at the transfer of patient information and responsibility... more Nursing shift handovers are institutional routines aimed at the transfer of patient information and responsibility among teams of caregivers at the change of shift. They are essential to patient safety and a priority concern for regulatory institutions. Standardization of information transfer during nursing shift handovers is now mandatory in many hospitals. But to date, no study has shown that standardized handover protocols actually improve patient condition. In organization science, research on contingency theory has shown that standardization is efficient only when uncertainty is low. This paper examines how the research on handovers and practical design of handovers could be informed by approaches stemming from contingency theory. The following aspects of adaptability are proposed for more thorough investigation in relation to uncertainty in the unit: adaptability of functions, adaptability of contents, and adaptability of structure.