Climate change policy

Local Surface Water Policy Under Conditions of Climate Change

by Elizabeth Brabec

Neoclassical realism and international climate change politics: moral imperative and political constraint in international climate finance (Under review)

by Mark Purdon

This paper is under review

This paper presents a neoclassical realist theory of climate change politics that recognizes systemic constraints on... more This paper presents a neoclassical realist theory of climate change politics that recognizes systemic constraints on cooperation while also identifying political factors specific to each state that help explain variation in individual state behaviour. At the system level, relative-gains concerns represent a major political constraint to climate change cooperation; however, sensitivity to relative-gains concerns is a two-level game involving international and domestic political factors. As a preliminary test of this model, I compare the effectiveness of two forms of international climate finance: carbon markets and climate funds. Results suggest that carbon markets perform relatively better than climate funds, which is explained by to the fact that markets cultivate stronger domestic political conditions but also that climate funds are more exposed to systemic constraints. Neoclassical realism also better explains why states with the highest participation in the carbon markets also tend to be making the most progress in reducing emissions domestically and why states most invested in carbon markets tend to be the most involved in climate funds. In advocating for climate change, it is important to promote policies that are both ethical and politically feasible.

The limits of liberal environmentalism: the CDM and the greening of the developmental state (2011)

by Mark Purdon

Paper Presented at the 2011 International Studies Association Annual Convention 2011, Montréal, (Québec) Canada – March 17, 2001

The focus of the current paper is on institutions involved in the domestic governance and implementation of projects... more The focus of the current paper is on institutions involved in the domestic governance and implementation of projects operating in developing countries under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, drawing on empirical research of the performance of CDM projects in the forest and bioenergy sectors in Tanzania and Moldova. The rationale for an international carbon market was that it would steer private investment towards low-cost emission reduction projects, epitomizing liberal environmentalism. Domestic regulation of the CDM in developing countries was limited to a single government body responsible for assessing the sustainable development contribution of CDM projects, the Designated National Authority (DNA). However, evidence from Tanzania and Moldova indicates that the governance of CDM projects involves a number of different domestic institutions, to which the DNA appears redundant. In addition, all CDM projects investigated have failed to attract the attention of state agencies responsible for promoting foreign investment. As a result, international development agencies continue to play a leading role in financing projects with the result that the CDM resembles more an instrument for development financing than a carbon market. The paper concludes that liberal environmentalism has limited thinking about the role of the state in the carbon market and prevented consideration of a consolidated foreign investment centre that includes in its mandate sustainable development and carbon finance. As an alternative, the paper suggests a greening of the developmental state model.

Performance of CDM Afforestation in Tanzania (2011)

by Mark Purdon

Paper presented at THE 5TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT (EFD) INITIATIVE, Arusha, October 27-30, 2011

The research question motivating this research project is under what conditions do afforestation projects under the... more The research question motivating this research project is under what conditions do afforestation projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol contribute significantly to sustainable rural development and generate genuine, additional carbon credits? This study provides answers to this question through a robust, comparative research design investigating CDM afforestation projects in Mufindi district, Tanzania. The afforestation projects were clearly having a positive direct impact on local employment and incomes. The observation that lands acquired for the CDM projects were unproductive lands allays concerns about food security. Furthermore, district government appeared to effectively verify that sufficient lands were retained by villages. In addition, the CDM project developer had been slow with meeting its commitments to provide social services, by at least 2008 it had begun to fulfill these obligations, including written commitment to dedicating 10% of carbon revenues to village development projects. There however remain biodiversity concerns due to the transformation away from grassland which need to be weighed against these direct economic benefits. Furthermore, the risks if the project fails to deliver continued economic development are significant given that the villages have lost title to former villages lands while review of compensation provided indicates this was extremely low. The additionality claims of the afforestation projects are however highly questionable. This is because the financial viability of the tree-planting changed over time in Mufindi district as a result of changing development conditions in Mufindi district as well as at the national level during the period 2005-2006. Trees planted for the CDM afforestation project can safely claim that carbon finance was necessary for project implementation, but becomes highly questionable afterward. This points to a need to devise a carbon accounting system to better accommodate changes in baselines over time.

Dynamic baselines and additionality: the case of CDM bagasse cogeneration in Uganda (2011)

by Mark Purdon

Paper presented at THE 5TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT (EFD) INITIATIVE, Arusha, October 27-30, 2011

This paper presents a case-study investigating the environmental integrity (“additionality”) of a CDM bagasse... more This paper presents a case-study investigating the environmental integrity (“additionality”) of a CDM bagasse cogeneration project in Uganda by modeling changes to financial and emissions baselines over the 2008-2014 crediting window. The CDM project claims that CDM financing was necessary for the expansion of bagasse cogeneration capacity, the surplus electricity from which has been exported to Uganda’s national grid. There are two levels to the additionality claim: (i) that KSW would not have been able to purchase the cogeneration technology to produce electricity for the national grid without CDM financing and (ii) that cogenerated electricity would displace fossil fuel emissions on Uganda’s national grid. For financial additionality, it was necessary to trace the history of the CDM cogeneration project in an effort determine if there were other significant sources of financing for the project than the CDM and, if so, attribute emission reductions to them. For emissions additionality, it was necessary to model baseline emissions as they evolved over the project’s crediting period 2008-2014. Recalculating the grid emissions factor entailed using a tool to calculate Uganda’s grid expansion factor developed using available ex-post data on power generation and updated to account for Uganda’s expected power mix through 2014. Findings indicate that the CDM has accelerated the capacity to export electricity, but not at the rate claimed in the CDM project documents. Genuine carbon credits are reduced from the original claim of 378,793 tCO2e over 2008-2014 to 189,396 tCO2e when appropriate historical financial baselines are included and further drops to between 74,699-117,711 tCO2e when dynamic financial baselines are considered. When dynamic grid emission factors are included in the assessment of emissions additionality, the initial amount of genuine carbon credits is reduced to 360,029 tCO2e. This is reduced further to 180,015 tCO2e when appropriate historical financial baselines are considered and between 89,645-116,731 tCO2e when dynamic financial baselines also considered. The main conclusion is that CDM additionality changes over time as financial incentives and baseline emissions change. Parsing out which emission reductions are due to the CDM and other interventions is difficult but, as demonstrated here, possible. Results indicated that baselines can deviate substantially from ex-ante efforts based on historical approaches and that emerging market mechanisms whether they be sectoral CDM, REDD+ or NAMAs warrant consideration of dynamic baselines that address changes in financial incentives and baseline emissions.

Performance of CDM Afforestation in Moldova (2011)

by Mark Purdon

Paper presented at THE 5TH ANNUAL MEETING OF THE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT (EFD) INITIATIVE, Arusha, October 27-30, 2011

The research question motivating this research project is under what conditions do afforestation projects under the... more The research question motivating this research project is under what conditions do afforestation projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol contribute significantly to sustainable rural development and generate genuine, additional carbon credits? The primary goal of the current study is to answer this question through a robust, comparative research design of CDM afforestation projects in Moldova in Eastern Europe. The sustainable development claims of the two CDM afforestation projects are most significant in terms of restoration of degraded land—an ecosystem service of national importance. However, in terms of the socioeconomic development of the villages involved, the current impact of the projects appear modest. There were also significant problems with the institutional mechanism for allocating lands for afforestation which have resulted in tension, if not conflict, in a number of villages involved. This is due to a lack of appropriate mechanisms to allow villagers to effectively participate in decisions made by village councils. Villages already have significant rights over the use of village lands that Moldsilva, the state forest agency, and district authorities respected. The CDM afforestation projects in Moldova appeared highly additional (particularly in the short-term), leading to a more than doubling of afforestation effort than Moldsilva would have been able to muster independently. Two elements help to explain the additionality of the CDM afforestation projects. Most important, has been the motivation for afforestation, which has been political rather than financial. At the same time, there was a latent institutional infrastructure in place that was able to respond effectively once the CDM made resources available for afforestation.

Understanding Biodiversity with Socio-Cultural & Environmental Aspects. 30 April 2011

by M.T. Abdullah, PhD

This paper discusses on some concepts and new ideas related to the high biological diversity in Malaysia. This may be... more This paper discusses on some concepts and new ideas related to the high biological diversity in Malaysia. This may be known as integrative biological diversity.

Climate Change and Biodiversity in Malaysia. 2010

by M.T. Abdullah, PhD

Impact, gaps and future of biodiversity in the face of climate change in Malaysia. Impact, gaps and future of biodiversity in the face of climate change in Malaysia.

The legacy of climategate: revitalizing or undermining climate science and policy?

by Reiner Grundmann

WIREs Climate Change, 2012. doi: 10.1002/wcc.166

The release of emails from a server at the University of East Anglia’s Climate  Research Unit (CRU) in November... more The release of emails from a server at the University of East Anglia’s Climate  Research Unit (CRU) in November 2009 and the following climategate controversy  have become a topic for interpretation in the social sciences. This article picks  out some of the most visible social science comments on the affair for discussion.  These comments are compared to an account of what can be seen as problematic  practices by climate scientists. There is general agreement in these comments  that climate science needs more openness and transparency. But when evaluating  climategate a variety of responses is seen, ranging from the apologetic to the highly  critical, even condemning the practices in question. It is argued that reluctance to  critically examine the climategate affair, including suspect practices of scientists,  has to do with the nature of the debate which is highly politicized. A call is made  for more reflection on this case which should not be closed off because of political  expediency. 

F. Sindico, “Climate and Trade in a Divided World: Can Measures Adopted in the North End Up Shaping Climate Change Legislative Frameworks in the South?”, in Y. Le Bouthillier, H. McLeod-Kilmurray, B. Richardson and S. Wood (Eds.), Climate Law and Developing Countries: Legal and Policy Challenges for the World Community, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2009, pp. 361-385

by Francesco Sindico

Book chapter published in http://www.e-elgar.com/bookentry_main.lasso?id=13363

The climate debate in the North is currently divided between countries that wish to adopt stringent mandatory emission... more The climate debate in the North is currently divided between countries that wish to adopt stringent mandatory emission reduction commitments and others that prefer voluntary initiatives. However, both share one same concern: they do not want to loose competitiveness vis a vis potential free riders, in particular emerging developing countries. Against this background, this paper wishes to address two main questions: Can the climate legislative framework in a developing country be influenced by measures adopted in the North? And, would such a measure be compatible with the developed countries’ obligations under World Trade Organization (WO) law? This paper will deal with these two questions by focusing on the current United States (US) climate policy.

F. Sindico, "Post 2012 compliance and carbon markets" in J. Brunnée, M. Doelle and L. Rajamani (Eds.), Promoting Compliance in an Evolving Climate Regime, Cambridge, CUP, 2012, pp. 240-261

by Francesco Sindico

Book chapter published in http://www.cambridge.org/aus/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521136136&ss=fro

Book summary:

As the contours of a post-2012 climate regime begin to emerge, compliance issues will require... more Book summary:

As the contours of a post-2012 climate regime begin to emerge, compliance issues will require increasing attention. This volume considers the questions that the trends in the climate negotiations raise for the regime’s compliance system. It reviews the main features of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, canvasses the literature on compliance theory, and examines the broader experience with compliance mechanisms in other international environmental regimes. Against this backdrop, contributors examine the central elements of the existing compliance system, the practice of the Kyoto compliance procedure to date, and the main compliance challenges encountered by key groups of states such as OECD countries, economies in transition, and developing countries. These assessments anchor examinations of the strengths and weaknesses of the existing compliance tools and of the emerging, decentralized, ‘bottom-up’ approach introduced by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord and pursued by the 2010 Cancun Agreements.

Introduction: The re-evolution of energy policy in the EU

by Israel Solorio

Co-authored with Francesc Morata, in F. Morata and I. Solorio, eds. European Energy Policy: An Environmental Approach, Edward Elgar Publisher, pp. 1-22.

Varieties of Biosocial Imagination: Responding to Climate Change and Antibiotic Resistance

by Nick Lee

An extract of a draft paper currently under review.

Co-authored with Johanna Motzkau

The authors present climate change and antibiotic resistance as emergent biosocial phenomena – ongoing products of... more The authors present climate change and antibiotic resistance as emergent biosocial phenomena – ongoing products of massively multiple interactions amongst human lifestyles and broader life processes. They argue that response to climate change and antibiotic resistance is often framed by two varieties of biosocial imagination. Anthropocentric imaginations privilege the question of human distinctiveness. Anthropomorphic imaginations privilege the question of whether biosocial processes can be modelled in terms of centres of moral and causal responsibility. Together, these frame the matter of response in terms of deliberate human action. The authors argue that, considered as emergent biosocial phenomena, climate change and antibiotic resistance ‘diffract’ deliberate human action and thus limit the value of this frame by rendering the human/nonhuman and intended/nonintended distinctions that are crucial to its practical operation locally irrelevant. Alternative biosocial imaginations currently developing around climate change and antibiotic resistance that allow for ‘diffraction’ and therefore frame response differently are considered.

The Impact of Climate Policy on US Aviation.

by Regina Clewlow

Journal of Transportation Economics & Policy. [In Press]

Authors:  N. Winchester, C. Wollersheim, R. Clewlow, N. Jost, S. Paltsev, J. Reilly and I. Waitz

F. Sindico, “The Copenhagen Accord and the future of the international climate change regime”, 1.1 Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental (2010), pp. 1-24

by Francesco Sindico

This paper analyses the environmental integrity, the nature and the political relevance of the Copenhagen Accord.... more This paper analyses the environmental integrity, the nature and the political relevance of the Copenhagen Accord. According to the first two parameters, the Copenhagen Accord is not satisfactory. From a political point of view the conclusion is slightly different, albeit not positive. This paper concludes arguing that after the Copenhagen Conference the future of the international climate change legal regime is likely to be more fragmented, the Accord being one further piece of the global carbon puzzle.

Crisis ambiental global: COP 15 ¿Éxito o fracaso? Análisis y prospectivas futuras

by Christopher Kiessling

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

by Simon Gosling

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling... more Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variable in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990–2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g. higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world’s major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, while those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Changing climate, changing democracy: a cautionary tale

by Mhairi Aitken

Aitken, M., 2012, 'Changing Climate, Changing Democracy: A cautionary tale' Environmental Politics Volume 21, Issue 2 pages 211-229

Climate change has come to hold a central position within many policy arenas. However, a particular framing of climate... more Climate change has come to hold a central position within many policy arenas. However, a particular framing of climate change and climate science, underpinned by modernist assumptions, dominates policy discourse. This leads to restricted policy responses reflecting particular interests and socio-political imaginaries. There is little public debate concerning this framing or the assumptions underpinning approaches to climate policy. The implications of this are illustrated by considering the ways in which UK planning policy has adapted to reflect commitments to mitigate climate change. It is shown that the importance attributed to climate change mitigation has had negative impacts on democratic involvement in planning processes. Given the uncertainty and high stakes of climate science (typical of post-normal science), value may be gained by incorporating the views and perspectives of ‘extended peer communities’, to question not only the processes and findings of climate science but also the ways in which the science is interpreted and responded to through policy.

Why Have The Relatively Successful Attempts To Govern The Worlds Production Of Chlorofluorocarbons Not Been Duplicated in Other Areas of Global …

by Charles Laffiteau

Climate change due to global warming is but one of many issues confronting countries that they cannot successfully... more Climate change due to global warming is but one of many issues confronting countries that they cannot successfully deal with on their own. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain why international attempts by governments and institutions to forestall climate change by regulating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions have not been successful. The question is answered through an empirical study of the international politics of regulating chemicals which lead to ozone depletion and comparing this with the politics surrounding CO2 emissions. Part I reviews the world’s growing awareness of global environmental issues and the relatively successful attempts which have been made to govern the production of chlorofluorocarbons. Part II examines he growing influence
of environmental NGOs on government’s response to concerns about environmental degradation and the unsuccessful attempts by states to prevent climate change by reducing their carbon gas emissions. Part III compares and contrasts the politics of
ozone depletion with the political complexity of the problem of climate change brought on by global warming and analyzes alternative strategies for regulating the production of greenhouse gas emissions and reducing deforestation. The Conclusions
section then offers suggestions on how greenhouse gas emissions might be regulated by governments in the near term (utilizing existing laws and treaties), and even more effectively in the future, by developing new international environmental governance and regulation regimes.

Australia's carbon tax: A sheep in wolf's clothing?

by Alex Lo

Spash, C.L. & Lo, A.Y. (2012) The Economic and Labour Relations Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2012: 67-86.

The Australian Government has produced a CO2-equivalent tax proposal with a difference: it is a short prelude to an... more The Australian Government has produced a CO2-equivalent tax proposal with a difference: it is a short prelude to an emission trading scheme that will allow the increasing rate of emissions to continue, while being a net cost to the Treasury. That cost extends to allowing major emitters to make guaranteed windfall profits from pollution permits. The emission trading scheme suffers numerous problems, but the issues raised in this article show that taxes can also be watered down and made ineffectual through concessions. Taxpayers will get no assets from the billions of dollars to be spent buying-off the coal generators or other polluters. The scheme seeks to stimulate private investors to create an additional 12 per cent in renewable electricity generation by 2020. A really serious emissions reducing alternative would need to create a nationalised electricity sector with 100 per cent renewable energy within a decade. We explore the limitations of Australia's carbon tax plan which has now passed into law.