Behavioural Economics

Application of Pulsed Melodic Affective Processing to Stock Market Algorithmic Trading and Analysis

by Alexis Kirke

Alexis Kirke, Eduardo Miranda

The application of Pulsed Melodic Affective Processing (PMAP) to stock market analysis and algorithmic trading is... more The application of Pulsed Melodic Affective Processing (PMAP) to stock market analysis and algorithmic trading is examined. PMAP utilizes musically-based pulse sets (“melodies”) for processing – capable of representing affective states. Affective processing and affective input/output is now considered to be a key tool in artificial intelligence and computing. However in the designing of processing elements (e.g. bits, bytes, floats, etc), engineers have primarily focused on the processing efficiency and power. Having defined these elements, they then go on to investigate ways of making them perceivable by the user/engineer. But the extremely active and productive area of Human-Computer Interaction - and the increasing complexity and pervasiveness of computation in our daily lives – supports the idea of a complementary approach in which computational efficiency and power are more balanced with understandability to the user/engineer. PMAP provides the potential for a person to tap into the affective processing path to hear a sample of what is going on in that computation, as well as providing a simpler way to interface with affective input/output systems. In this paper PMAP will be applied to a simple algorithmic trading system based on an affective model of a simulated stock market.
Keywords: Human-Computer Interaction, Music, Affective, Boolean Logic, Neural Networks, Behavioural Finance, Algorithmic Trading, Stock Market 

Redibujando el Mapa Electoral Chileno: Incidencia de Factores Socio-Económicos y de Género en las Urnas.

by David Altman

[2004] Revista de Ciencia Política 24 (2): 49-66

Este artículo estudia el cambio de clivajes en el Chile post autoritario usando evidencia electoral y socio–económica... more Este artículo estudia el cambio de clivajes en el Chile post autoritario usando evidencia electoral y socio–económica que va más allá de elecciones presidenciales y datos de opinión pública. Esta investigación determina que las condiciones socio económicas (medidas a través del Índice de Desarrollo Humano)
tienen los efectos esperados en cuanto al porcentaje de votos recibidos por las dos coaliciones mayoritarias del país (la coalición gubernamental Concertación y el bloque opositor Alianza). En términos generales, la Concertación obtiene mejores resultados en las comunas de mayor índice de desarrollo humano y la Alianza en comunas con niveles más bajos de desarrollo humano. Si consideramos los efectos
curvilíneos, la Alianza por Chile vota mejor en las comunas con valores extremos de IDH y la Concertación dentro de las comunas con valores medios. En otras palabras, la Concertación presenta una distribución con forma de U invertida (∩) y la Alianza lo opuesto (∪). Respecto al voto de la mujer, se puede afirmar que, si bien tiende a favorecer a los partidos de la Alianza por Chile, simultáneamente tiende significativamente a votar más a las mujeres que a los hombres, dándose así una suerte de solidaridad de género.

The effects of Facebook use on civic participation attitudes and behaviour: A social network study (DPhil research proposal)

by Mark Dix

Unpublished DPhil research proposal

This research proposal suggests a network analysis approach to study the effects of web communication on civic... more This research proposal suggests a network analysis approach to study the effects of web communication on civic participation.

A three-phase mixed methods research design is proposed to examine the effect of supplementary communication via the social networking site Facebook, on the structure (quantity) and content (quality) of social ties within a network of citizens engaged in health and social care policymaking.

Subsequently, it is proposed that the network variables of tie structure and content are tested in an affective capacity against the participatory attitudes and behaviour of networked individuals.

By reframing the study of web use and civic participation under a network theoretical framework, when executed, the proposed study will add to the existing literature in the field through recognition of the mediative capacity of relational ties in the formation of participatory capital.

It is suggested that it is through their effect on relational tie structure and content within citizen participation networks, that social networking sites such as Facebook affect participatory attitudes and behaviour.

To set a critical context for the proposed study, a final qualitative phase of research is suggested to examine the professional power structures impacting upon participatory agency.

A Contemporary Framework for Emotions in Consumer Decision-Making: Moving Beyond Traditional Models

by Holly A. Bell

Published in 'International Journal of Business and Social Science', 2011

Traditional models of consumer decision-making are largely cognitive and sequential in nature. While there is some... more Traditional models of consumer decision-making are largely cognitive and sequential in nature. While there is some recognition of an emotional component in the decision-making process, traditional models assume emotions should be overcome, cognitive and affective processes and multiple emotions cannot exist simultaneously, and a dichotomy exists between satisfaction and emotion in consumer decision-making. This paper examines contemporary research that challenges traditional assumptions about the role of emotions in consumer decision-making and introduces the role of consumer emotional intelligence into the process. The discussion concludes with a look at the strategic and ethical implications for marketers.

What does being initiated severely into a group do? The role of rewards

by Caroline Kamau

Kamau, C. (2012)

Psychological game theory: a review of current literature

by Daniel Neicu

published in the Review of Business and Economic Literature, 2012, vol. 57, p. 37

Experimental evidence appears to contradict traditional game theory predictions in numerous settings. Although a solid... more Experimental evidence appears to contradict traditional game theory predictions in numerous settings. Although a solid basis for characterizing equlibria, game theory needed to – and to some extent did – go through some major developments and transgress the barriers between different social sciences to more accurately depict human behaviour in economic circumstances. Psychological game theory, first developed in the 80s, is one such advancement. By integrating beliefs directly within utility, it seeks to tie affective psychology to economic choice and thus better predict decision making. This paper reviews existing literature on psychological game theory and a strand of prospect theory relevant to emotional decision-making, and proposes further refinements and possible extensions.

Valuation Techniques for Social Cost Benefit Analysis: Stated Preference, Revealed Preference and Subjective Well-Being Approaches

by Ross Campbell

Fujiwara, D., and Campbell, R. (2011). Valuation Techniques for Social Cost Benefit Analysis: Stated Preference, Revealed Preference and Subjective Well-Being Approaches. Green Book Discussion Paper

The valuation of non-market impacts is a challenging but important area of economic appraisal.  The full value of... more The valuation of non-market impacts is a challenging but important area of economic appraisal.  The full value of goods such as health, family and community stability, educational success and environmental assets cannot be inferred from market prices, but we should not neglect such important impacts in decision making.

This Green Book discussion paper therefore considers three techniques for the valuation of non-market impacts in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Revealed preference and stated preference are two ‘market based approaches’ which have been referenced in the Green Book for some time. This paper introduces a third approach, involving the measurement of subjective well-being, which has been gaining currency in recent years.

Essentially, the robustness of the estimates generated by any of these techniques has to be considered on a case-by-case basis before inclusion in Social Cost Benefit Analysis.  In particular, the estimates generated by the subjective well-being technique are not yet sufficiently accepted as robust enough for direct use in Social Cost Benefit Analysis.  The technique is under development, however, and may soon provide a reliable and accepted complement to the more traditional economic approaches. In the meantime, the estimates may give us a better idea about the relative value of non-market goods compared with each other. They will also be important in encouraging consideration of the full range of social impacts of policies, and in encouraging reconsideration of the values that may otherwise place be placed implicitly on certain types of impacts

The Brain Drain: Implications for Regional Economic Integration in the Expanding European Union.

by Matthew Jelavic

Jelavic, M. (2012). The brain drain: Implications for regional economic integration in the expanding European Union. In B. Chapalet, & M. Le Berre (Eds.), Producing New Knowledge on Innovation Management. Presses Universitaires de Grenoble, 99 – 111.

This paper provides a review and conceptual analysis of issues surrounding regional economic integration and the... more This paper provides a review and conceptual analysis of issues surrounding regional economic integration and the potential for inter-country brain drain within the expanding European Union (EU). As the EU expands eastward, it absorbs millions of highly skilled knowledge workers and opens opportunities for western European organisations to capitalise on this workforce. The migration of these skilled workers is a macro-exercise in eastern European knowledge management, and could have far-reaching implications at the regional, industry and organisational levels. This paper explores the context and implications of knowledge worker movement across fading borders.

Word-of-Mouth online applicato al marketing turistico

by Armando Travaglini

The American Dream Redux

by Marcus Goncalves

Published by the Telegram & Gazette of Worcester, MA on February 15, 2012

The noted historian James Truslow Adams defined the American Dream as a lifestyle that “should be better and richer... more The noted historian James Truslow Adams defined the American Dream as a lifestyle that “should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement.”

Do I have more free will than you do?

by Brian Earp

Earp, B. D. (2011). Do I have more free will than you do? An unexpected asymmetry in intuitions about personal freedom. New School Psychology Bulletin, Vol. 9, No. 21, 34-40.

The present research explores the relationship between moral evaluations and intuitions about the causes of human... more The present research explores the relationship between moral evaluations and intuitions about the causes of human behavior, in particular freedom of the will. Two studies test for a self-serving bias in intuitions about free will. Study 1 explores whether individuals may seek to exculpate themselves from wrongdoing by denying free will, while justifying blame of others by endorsing free will. Study 2 explores whether individuals may justify personal failures by denying free will, while taking credit for personal successes by endorsing free will. In neither study do the data show the predicted differences between conditions. However, an unexpected finding is reported. By pooling the data from both experiments and collapsing across conditions, it is shown that participants give greater endorsement of free will whenever actions are described from a first-person, instead of third-person, perspective—a tentative “I have more free will than you do” effect. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed, as are avenues for further research on this topic.

Inter-regional mobility in the EU: A labour market perspective

by Joel Marsden

Master's Thesis - forthcoming publication in Bruges European Economic Research Papers (2011)

The Economic Decision to Sleep

by Joel Marsden

Bachelor's Thesis (University of Warwick)

Bloomberg interview with Khnifer over Goldman Sachs’ “Tawrruq” Sukuk

by Mohammed Khnifer -(MSc,MBA,CSAA,CIFP) محمد الخنيفر

Financial Times interview ( http://bit.ly/rFMtXC ) Orignal research note on GS Sukuk ( http://bit.ly/ulykYj ) -Goldman Sachs Sukuk Row May Dent Industry Lure

Advisers including Riyadh-based Mohammed Khnifer of Edcomm Group Banker’s Academy in New York has also said it’s... more Advisers including Riyadh-based Mohammed Khnifer of Edcomm Group Banker’s Academy in New York has also said it’s unclear on how Goldman will use the funds it raises.
Edcomm’s Khnifer, a sukuk structurer and strategist, drew parallels between Goldman Sachs’ Islamic bond structure and the reverse Tawarruq contract. He also says Goldman’s program doesn’t ensure the commodity murabaha certificates are only traded at par.
--------------
Bloomberg: ADIB Scholars See Goldman Sukuk Non-Islamic, Al-Eqtisadiah Says ( http://bloom.bg/xzBCeM )

=-=-=-=-=-= Subjective Op-ed from the industry =-=-=-=-=-=

1)GS "sacks of gold" Rocket Scientists Vs. one Saudi Sharia expert (http://bit.ly/tvYSZW )
2)Young Turks’ Reform movement Vs. Old Guards (http://bit.ly/tsTiQS )

3)Reforming the industry: Sheikh Edam M. Ishaq, said the Goldman case might lead to institutional reforms in the industry and closer scrutiny of sukuk issues in general. http://reut.rs/y8ZgEj
4- "This whole issue has really done the market a big favour," said one senior Islamic finance banker following the panel discussion. "It’s got all the questions out in the open very early in the process rather than at the point of issuance, which could have been a disaster." (Source: EuroWeek). http://bit.ly/ACiWlg

5-The research note I once wrote on the financially engineered "flawed" sukuk by Goldman Sachs was chosen by Zawya as a "Major event that shaped the Sukuk Industry in 2011 & expected to leave an impact which will direct the course of 2012" ( http://lnkd.in/hb2WkV )

6- Reuters Breakingviews:Goldman's First Islamic Foray too Clever by Half ( http://bit.ly/yv7R3i )
7-IFN:”The impending issuance has grabbed headlines; not just as it will mark the western banking giant's first foray into the Islamic debt market, but due to questions raised on the Shariah compliance of the facility's structure, including in much-publicized comments by Mr. Khnifer”.
8- Sachs & the triple entendre ! http://read.bi/z2lLJ4
9- مصرفيون إسلاميون تحت فوهة البركان http://tiny.cc/kxxsbw
=-=-=-=-=-= Update =-=-=-=-=-=

The Irish Stock Exchange is reportedly unable to stabilize the tradability at par. Disturbing because the message the industry was receiving from those behind GS deal is the assurance that any tradability would be at par. That means the “third flaw” can not be fixed at all. Further, there will be no control over the OTC transactions which means the sukuk could be traded at market value. Such tradability would make it non-Shariah. (EuroWeek story: http://goo.gl/3E5Hl )

Khnifer's Recent Interview with the FT- (Goldman runs into sukuk hurdle)

by Mohammed Khnifer -(MSc,MBA,CSAA,CIFP) محمد الخنيفر

Financial Times--Tom Braithwaite in New York and David Oakley-December 15, 2011- The interview is based on a column I wrote ( http://bit.ly/ulykYj )- Bloomberg interview ( http://bit.ly/tz0eVR ).

"But other experts say the offering may flout the rules. Mohammed Khnifer, a Saudi Arabia-based sharia adviser,... more "But other experts say the offering may flout the rules. Mohammed Khnifer, a Saudi Arabia-based sharia adviser, said there were at least three “flaws” in the structure that he believed would disqualify the offering from sharia compliance.
First, the prospectus suggested that underlying assets used in the sukuk could be sold to a third party; second that the funds raised could be directed to Goldman itself; and third that there was no guarantee the securities would trade at par. Any of those might breach the complex rules required to be compliant."

=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-= Reuters =-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=
Being quoted by Thomson Reuters:" Mohammed Khnifer, an Islamic finance analyst in Saudi Arabia, wrote that Goldman might use the proceeds of the sukuk to fund conventional banking activities." To continue: http://reut.rs/ukhMYb
Reuters España (http://bit.ly/wQqAcG ) Reuters France (http://bit.ly/xSt5xW )

=-=-=-==-=-=-= Financial Times =-=-=-==-=-=-=more interviews with
1) the German Language Edition ( FT Deutschland) http://bit.ly/umlOy5
2) Arabic Language Edition of FT (متخصص سعودي يشكك في صكوك جولدمان ساكس ) http://bit.ly/t0X96f

An elasmosaur bitten by a pliosaur

by Tony Thulborn

Written jointly with Dr Susan Turner.

Disclosure of 3 Flaws in Goldman Sachs' $2 Billion Islamic Bonds

by Mohammed Khnifer -(MSc,MBA,CSAA,CIFP) محمد الخنيفر

This is the Original column that was published on the 1st of Dec. which Ignited the "Great Debate" of the industry. To read Khnifer's Recent Interview with the Financial Times ( http://bit.ly/rFMtXC )- Bloomberg interview ( http://bit.ly/tz0eVR )

Goldman Sachs claims that its $2 billion Sukuk programme follows a Murabaha structure, Mohammed Khnifer claims... more Goldman Sachs claims that its $2 billion Sukuk programme follows a Murabaha structure, Mohammed Khnifer claims otherwise – that it is nothing more than a
Reverse Tawarruq. What follows is an in-depth review of GS sukuk Offering Circular.
=-=-=-==-=-=-=More interviews with=-=-=-==-=-=-=
1) EuroWeek (http://bit.ly/s8cyaT ) & ( http://bit.ly/w0AVPQ)
2) The Islamic Globe (http://bit.ly/tqiPPs) ( http://bit.ly/tFLUpU)
3) Asharq Awsat مقابلة صحيفة الشرق الأوسط (http://bit.ly/rqrq1n )

EuroWeek: ADIB adds to Goldman sukuk heat with Shariah ruling
Provider: IFIS-February 15, 2012

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank's Shariah board has rejected Goldman Sachs's proposed $2bn sukuk programme as unacceptable for Islamic investment, according to a leaked email seen by EuroWeek and one senior official at the Abu Dhabi bank.

Attitudes, norms, identity and environmental behaviour: Using an expanded theory of planned behaviour to predict participation in a kerbside recycling programme

by David Uzzell

Nigbur, D., Lyons, E., and Uzzell, D. (2010). Attitudes, norms, identity and environmental behaviour: Using an expanded theory of planned behaviour to predict participation in a kerbside recycling programme, British Journal of Social Psychology,49, 2, 259 – 284

In an effort to contribute to greater understanding of norms and identity in the theory of planned behaviour, an... more In an effort to contribute to greater understanding of norms and identity in the theory of planned behaviour, an extended model was used to predict residential kerbside recycling, with self-identity, personal norms, neighbourhood identification and injunctive and descriptive social norms as additional predictors. Data from a field study (N=527) using questionnaire measures of predictor variables and an observational measure of recycling behaviour supported the theory. Intentions predicted behaviour, while attitudes, perceived control, and the personal norm predicted intention to recycle. The interaction between neighbourhood identification and injunctive social norms in turn predicted personal norms. Self-identity and the descriptive social norm significantly added to the original theory in predicting intentions as well as behaviour directly. A replication survey on the self-reported recycling behaviours of a random residential sample (N=264) supported the model obtained previously. These findings offer a useful extension of the theory of planned behaviour and some practicable suggestions for pro-recycling interventions. It may be productive to appeal to self-identity by making people feel like recyclers, and to stimulate both injunctive and descriptive norms in the neighbourhood.

Ökonomischer Imperialismus – oder: Kann die ökonomische Verhaltenstheorie alles erklären?: Eine Bewertung der ökonomischen Verhaltenstheorie anhand ihrer Anomalien und neueren Ansätze und eine versöhnliche Perspektive auf den ökonomischen Imperialismus

by Basanta Thapa

term paper

Behavioural Economics and the Demand for Sports Consumption

by John Embery