Adaptation to Climate Change

Adapting UK dwellings for heat waves

by Chris Goodier

Last millennium climate change in the occupation and abandonment of Palau’s Rock Islands

by Christian Reepmeyer

Clark, G., Reepmeyer, C. 2012. Archaeology in Oceania 47: 29-38.

The role of AD 1300 climate change in widespread societal change in Palau and the Pacific Basin has recently been... more The role of AD 1300 climate change in widespread societal change in Palau and the Pacific Basin has recently been debated by Fitzpatrick (2010, 2011) and Nunn and Hunter-Anderson (2011). The central proposition examined here is the link between a sealevel driven food crisis and the outbreak of conflict, which is hypothesized in the AD 1300 event model to have led people to shift from unprotected coastal parts of large islands (e.g. volcanic Babeldaob) to more readily defensible offshore islands (e.g. limestone ‘Rock Islands’) during the transition between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Revision of radiocarbon dates from village sites in the Rock Islands suggests instead that permanent settlements were established on small offshore islands during the MWP with village abandonment during the LIA. Palaeoclimate records from equatorial islands show that during the LIA Palau had less rainfall from the southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The abandonment of multiple limestone islands by a population estimated at 4000–6000 people may have been influenced by decreased precipitation and more tentatively from a decline in near-shore marine foods as a result of sea-level fall.

The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

by Simon Gosling

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling... more Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variable in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990–2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g. higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world’s major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, while those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Palaeoprecipitation trends and cultural changes in Syrian protohistoric communities: the contribution of δ13C in ancient and modern vegetation.

by Valentina Caracuta

Co-authored with 'G. Fiorentino, G. Quarta, L. Calacagnile, D. Morandi Bonaccossi.

Mediterranean agriculture under climate change: adaptive capacity, adaptation, and ethics

by Giuseppe Feola

with M. Grasso, in Regional Environmental Change, available in pre-print version here: http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/25989/

In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative... more In the coming decades, the Mediterranean region is expected to experience various climate impacts with negative consequences on agricultural systems and which will cause uneven reductions in agricultural production. By and large, the impacts of climate change on Mediterranean agriculture will be heavier for southern areas of the region. This unbalanced distribution of negative impacts underscores the significance and role of ethics in such a context of analysis. Consequently, the aim of this article is to justify and develop an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation in the Mediterranean and to derive the consequent implications for adaptation policy in the region. In particular, we define an index of adaptive capacity for the agricultural systems of the Mediterranean region on whose basis it is possible to group its different sub-regions, and we provide an overview of the suitable adaptation actions and policies for the sub-regions identified. We then vindicate and put forward an ethical approach to agricultural adaptation, highlighting the implications for the Mediterranean region and the limitations of such an ethical framework. Finally, we emphasize the broader potential of ethics for agricultural adaptation policy.

Rolling stones; fast weathering of olivine in shallow seas for cost-effective CO2 capture and mitigation of global warming and ocean acidification

by Poppe de Boer

R. D. Schuiling and P. L. de Boer

Human CO2 emissions may drive the Earth into a next greenhouse state. They can be mitigated by accelerating weathering... more Human CO2 emissions may drive the Earth into a next greenhouse state. They can be mitigated by accelerating weathering of natural rock under the uptake of CO2. We disprove the paradigm that olivine weathering in nature would be a slow process, and show that it is not needed to mill olivine to very fine, 10 μm-size grains in order to arrive at a complete dissolution within 1-2 y. In high-energy shallow marine environments olivine grains and reaction products on the grain surfaces, that otherwise would greatly retard the reaction, are abraded so that the chemical reaction is much accelerated. When kept in motion even large olivine grains rubbing and bumping against each other quickly produce fine clay- and silt-sized olivine particles that show a fast chemical reaction. Spreading of olivine in the world’s 2% most energetic shelf seas can compensate a year’s global CO2 emissions and counteract ocean acidification against a price well below that of carbon credits.

Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change

by Peter Macreadie

Marine and Freshwater Research (2011)

One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms,... more One of the most obvious and expected impacts of climate change is a shift in the distributional range of organisms, which could have considerable ecological and economic consequences. Australian waters are hotspots for climate-induced environmental changes; here, we review these potential changes and their apparent and potential implications for freshwater, estuarine and marine fish. Our meta-analysis detected ,300 papers globally on ‘fish’ and ‘range shifts’, with ,7% being from Australia. Of the Australian papers, only one study exhibited definitive evidence of climate-induced range shifts, with most studies focussing instead on future predictions. There was little consensus in the literature regarding the definition of ‘range’, largely because of populations having distributions that fluctuate regularly. For example, many marine populations have broad dispersal of offspring (causing vagrancy). Similarly, in freshwater and estuarine systems, regular environmental changes (e.g. seasonal, ENSO cycles – not related to climate change) cause expansion and contraction of populations, which confounds efforts to detect range ‘shifts’. We found that increases in water temperature, reduced freshwater flows and changes in ocean currents are likely to be the key drivers of climate- induced range shifts in Australian fishes. Although large-scale frequent and rigorous direct surveys of fishes across their entire distributional ranges, especially at range edges, will be essential to detect range shifts of fishes in response to climate change, we suggest careful co-opting of fisheries, museum and other regional databases as a potential, but imperfect alternative.

Sharing the Risk of Hail: Insurance, Reinsurance and the Variability of Hailstorms in Switzerland, 1880-1932

by Franz Mauelshagen

Published in: Environment & History 17 (2011), No. 1, p. 171-91.
Modified version of a paper presented at the German Historical Institute, Washington D.C on 15 September 2007.
Another slightly different version was presented at the World Congress of Environmental History in Copenhagen on 8 August 2009.

This paper describes part of the early history of crop insurance in Switzerland as a process of adaptation to the... more This paper describes part of the early history of crop insurance in Switzerland as a process of adaptation to the hazard of hail. It argues that insurance is a means to socialize hazard through risk sharing and, therefore, adaptation is an active process influenced by various decisions on and outside the market for insurance. These decisions are as much part of the story as is the variability of hailstorms in Switzerland. A period of more extreme hailstorms, which challenged insurance, occurred between 1920 and 1930 and was linked by reinsurers with climatic change. This will give rise to discussing insurance in the context of the current debate on global warming, its projected impacts, and possible strategies of adaptation.

99 Canyon - Adaptation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) oviposition behavior in response to humidity and diet

by Deon Canyon

Canyon DV, Hii JLK and Muller R. Adaptation of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) oviposition behavior in response to humidity and diet. Journal of Insect Physiology 1999;45:959-964.

Seasonal environmental practices and climate fluctuations in Melanesia. An assessment of small island societies in Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.

by Carlos Mondragon

In co-authorship with Fred Damon (UVa). To be published in the Technical Report emanating from papers presented at the Climate Change and Indigenous Knowledge Workshop held in Mexico City in July 2011.

This paper presents two exemplary case studies of indigenous adaptability to environmental change in the region of the... more This paper presents two exemplary case studies of indigenous adaptability to environmental change in the region of the Western Pacific known as Island Melanesia. We draw on extensive experience of local environmental knowledge and short- and long-term fluctuations in two small Pacific Islands’ societies, the island of Muyuw, on the northern side of the Kula ring (maritime Papua New Guinea), and the Torres Islands, in the north of the Vanuatu archipelago. We offer a critical assessment of the contemporary state of human-environmental relations in these communities, with special attention to sea level rise and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in view of these being signature issues within climate change discussions in Pacific Islands. We place these topics within the framework of primary food production systems and local forms of guardianship and exploitation of forest and marine resources. Throughout, our focus is on these communities’ reactions to observed climatic and geological fluctuations over the past two decades: in the first case, in relation to the human modification of forest resources in Muyuw, while the second case focuses on the shoreline dynamics provoked by sudden and extreme sea level fluctuations as a consequence of seismic activity in Vanuatu. We argue that the observed effects of these processes offer valuable data regarding the specifics of human adaptation to climate change in small islands’ contexts. One of our key arguments is that mid and long term environmental fluctuations have long been a part of Melanesian engagements with the physical world, and have consequently given rise to coping strategies that are inherent to traditional knowledge practices. We also seek to emphasize that the geomorphology of the Melanesian islands –which tend to be small land masses that are often graced with multifarious soil types and forest and marine resources– already possesses degrees of ecological adaptability which appear to be absent from other idiosyncratic Pacific Islands’ contexts, most notably those of the low-lying atolls proper to Micronesia and Polynesia, which are often taken as exemplary of all small islands around the world. It follows that assessments of climate adaptation across much of the Western Pacific, and indeed large parts of Island Southeast Asia, must be approached and understood in ways that are sensitive to the local differences between these environments and those of insular societies in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean.

Prehistoric Pastoralists and Social Responses to Climatic Risk in East Africa

by Katherine Grillo

Marshall, Fiona; Katherine Grillo; and Lee Arco. In Sustainable Lifeways: Cultural Persistence in an Ever-changing Environment, eds. Naomi F. Miller, Katherine M. Moore, and Kathleen Ryan. University of Pennsylvania Museum, Philadelphia (2011).

Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed conditions in Cameroon—A method to improve attainable crop yields by planting date adaptations

by Patrick Laux

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.05.008

Rainfed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from low productivity. Prolonged dry spells and droughts... more Rainfed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are suffering from low productivity. Prolonged dry spells and droughts often lead to significant crop losses, a situation that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. In this study, the impact of climate change on attainable yields of maize and groundnut, as major alimentary crops in sub-Saharan Africa, is evaluated at five stations in Cameroon under rainfed conditions. It is focussed on the contribution of future climate change in terms of the direct fertilisation effect of the expected CO2 alteration and the indirect effects of the expected temperature and precipitation change. As improved agricultural management practices in rainfed systems are crucial to increase agricultural productivity, the impact of the planting date is analysed in detail. For this purpose, a fuzzy logic-based algorithm is developed to estimate the agriculturally relevant onset of the rainy season (ORS) and, thus, the optimal planting date. This algorithm is then connected to the physically based crop model CropSyst, hereinafter referred to as optimal planting date following crop modelling system. A Monte Carlo approach is used to optimise the ORS algorithm in terms of maximising the mean annual crop yields (1979–2003). The optimal planting date following crop modelling system is applied to past and future periods, mainly for two reasons: (i) to derive optimal fuzzy rules and increase mean attainable crop yields; and (ii) to reliably estimate the impact of climate change to crop productivity with (‘optimal planting date scenario’) and without planting date adaptations (‘traditional planting date scenario’).
It is shown that the fuzzy rules derived for assessing the optimal planting dates may allow for significantly increased crop yields compared to the existing planting rules in Cameroon under current climatic conditions, especially for the drier northern regions. A change in the climatic conditions due to global warming will reduce the growing cycle and, thus, the crop yields. However, the positive effect of CO2 fertilisation is likely to outweigh the negative effects of precipitation and temperature change for the 2020s and partly for the 2080s. When additionally considering planting date adaptations, groundnut yield is expected to increase for the 2020s and the 2080s, with maximum yield surpluses of about 30% for the 2020s compared to the extended baseline period. For maize, crop yield is likely to increase (decrease) for the 2020s (2080s) by approximately 15%. For the driest stations analysed, the negative impacts of temperature and precipitation change could be mitigated significantly by planting date adaptations.

Keywords: Crop modelling; CropSyst; Monte Carlo approach; Onset of the rainy season; Planting date; Climate change; Attainable crop yield

Arctic tundra caribou and climatic change: Questions of temporal and spatial scales

by Mike Ferguson

Ferguson, M.A.D. 1996. Arctic tundra caribou and climatic change: Questions of temporal and spatial scales. Geoscience Canada 23: 245-252.

Climatic changes have affected populations of caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) at scales ranging from a single... more Climatic changes have affected populations of caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) at scales ranging from a single winter to tens of thousands of years, and from micro-habitats to entire continents. Individuals, populations and the species have adapted to these climatic changes, however, producing complex evolutionary and ecological issues requiring multi-scale, interdisciplinary research. Caribou populations wintering on arctic tundra may be most susceptible to the impacts of anthropogenic climatic change, given the low productivity of their forage, the severity and duration of the winters, and the physical barriers that limit dispersal.

Sub-speciation of Rangifer tarandus hypotheticaly occurred during the Wisconsin glaciation. Recent genetic analyses support the current classification of subspecies, except that Baffin Island caribou may be distinct from barren-ground caribou, R. t. groenlandicus, on mainland Northwest Territories. Baffin caribou may have originated from a small ancestral population in a refugium on Baffin Island during the Wisconsin glaciation; or, they may have originated from immigrants after the Wisconsin glaciation, later experiencing a severe population bottleneck.

On a shorter time scale, recent research has suggested that density-independent climatic events occurring over a single winter have caused at least one major population decline among Peary caribou on the Queen Elizabeth Islands. Dramatic fluctuations of Greenland populations over the past 200 years have been attributed to climatic changes. However, the onset of some population changes on western Greenland have been inconsistent with the timing of climatic changes. Inuit knowledge of Baffin caribou and studies of tundra caribou on Svalbard, Coats and Southampton islands, South Georgia, and Norway suggest that caribou populations are affected primarily by density-dependent grazing impacts on forage that can last several decades. The discrepancy between these views may be caused by differences in the temporal and spatial scales over which scientific investigations have been conducted, and the measurement of only some ecological factors. Arctic ecological studies require extensive spatial and temporal data before impacts of anthropogenic climate change can be assessed. This will require a long-term interdisciplinary study integrating scientific data from several disciplines, as well as Inuit knowledge.

Between Warm and Cold: Impact of the Younger Dryas on Human Behavior in Central Europe

by Sonja B. Grimm

Weber, M.-J., Grimm, S. B. & Baales, M. (2011): Between warm and cold - Impact of Dryas III on human behavior in Central Europe. Quaternary International 242, 277-301. (special issue: Straus, L. G. & Goebel, T. (eds.): Humans and Younger Dryas: Dead end, short detour, or open road to the Holocene? Proceedings of the symposium on Human Responses to Younger Dryas in the Northern Hemisphere at the 75th SAA annual meeting, April, 17th, St. Louis)

A PDF-copy of the article can be requested via email

Following a thorough review of high-resolution environmental archives, this paper aims at discriminating the factors... more Following a thorough review of high-resolution environmental archives, this paper aims at discriminating the factors determining the heterogeneous repercussion of the Lateglacial Younger Dryas in Central Europe. When examining the archaeological implications of human adaptation to the subsequent changes in the natural environment two divergent biotic regions are of special interest: the North European Plain and adjacent areas; and the Alpine foothills and surrounding mountain ranges. In these regions, two different archaeological technocomplexes (traditions) are found: the Tanged Point Complex and the Curve-Backed Point Groups. Considering the distribution of the archaeological sites witnessing changes in the material culture and subsistence pattern, the intensity of the environmental changes caused by the Younger Dryas is a decisive element. Settlement discontinuity during the Younger Dryas is questioned. Moreover, the potential existence of established social networks between the two regions expressed by comparable developments such as microlithization is considered. Finally, the authors assess whether the Younger Dryas acted as an accelerator or a brake in the process of regional diversification prior to the Early Mesolithic.

Evaluating poverty–environment dynamics

by Edward Carr

Commentary: the challenge of quantifying susceptibility to drought-related crisis

by Edward Carr

The co-production of land use and livelihoods change: Implications for development interventions

by Edward Carr

The co-production of livelihoods and land use change: Case studies from South Africa and Ghana

by Edward Carr

Between structure and agency: Livelihoods and adaptation in Ghana's Central Region

by Edward Carr

Adaptations to climate change, drought and desertification: local insights to enhance policy in southern Africa

by Lindsay Stringer

Stringer LC, Dyer JC, Reed MS, Dougill AJ, Twyman C, Mkwambisi M 2009 Adaptations to climate change, drought and desertification: local insights to enhance policy in southern Africa. Environmental Science and Policy 12 (7) 748-765

The impacts of climate change, drought and desertification are closely interlinked, and mostacutely experienced by... more The impacts of climate change, drought and desertification are closely interlinked, and mostacutely experienced by populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to affect the Southern Africa region, it is essential to assess how household and community-level adaptations have been helped or hindered by institutional structures and national policy instruments. In particular, there is a need to reflect on efforts related to the United Nations’ environmental conventions to ensure that policies support the maintenance of local adaptations and help retain the resilience of socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper examines three interlinked drivers of adaptation: climate change, desertification and drought, assessing the extent to which international and national policy supports local adaptive strategies in three countries in southern Africa. We show that while common ground exists between desertification and climate change adaptations at the policy level, they are insufficiently mainstreamed within broader development approaches. Similarly, there are some overlaps between policy-driven and autonomous local adaptations, but the mutually supportive links between them are poorly developed. Further efforts to integrate local adaptation strategies within policy could increase local resilience to environmental change, while also contributing to wider development goals.