Financial Economics

In the Basel III era, measuring, managing, mitigating and forecasting interest rate risk has become significant. In the first study of its kind, this paper develops a principal component analysis-based forecasting of interest rates of different maturities and stress testing approach in a univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) framework in the context of India. Debating the existence of multiple representations of interest rates in the Indian market, the study broke down all the short-term, as well as long-term interest rates to derive the optimal principal component of unique interest rates. These unique interest rates are further exercised to forecast the future interest rates through the ARIMA model. The rolling average method was applied to the recently created Indian volatility index (VIX) to place the stress points. The model performance was examined over this stress point of building multiple scenario analysis. The study found that ARIMA (2-1-1) forecasting model of interest rates produced a better forecast result, both in the case of in-sample and out-of-sample performances as well as in stress periods. From the forecasting results, the study found that the proportionate gain in yield is higher as the maturity increases. By examining the stress period on the basis of eight quarters (2007: Q4 of 2009: Q3) rolling average on Indian volatility Indices, the survey concluded that the Indian economy will reach a stable situation signalled by less volatile interest rates post the second quarter of 2018.

I am motivated by the desire to achieve, not by the desire to beat others and that makes me a good team player. I am still young in the banking industry and that means have a lot to learn from and contribute to the global banking industry. My work experience is still narrowed to bank relationship management, credit risk, planing, product development, market research and analysis, recoveries and collections, corporate banking, private banking, marketing of financial services; banking operations

Multiple of factors such as technological innovation, public policy and market landscape, the nature of competitions, firms (cost) structures, firms' strategies, stock market performances managerial skills and other indigenous and exogenous factors have an explicit and implicit influence on firm's growth. A wealth of literature indicates that there is a divergence of thoughts on the direction and the extent of these various factors on firms' growth. There is a divergence of views on whether the relative impacts of stocks market performance on firms' growth could be identified, and what are the best practices to capture such lines of thoughts? And hence disentangling the impact of stock market performance on firms' growth is particularly open-ended and disputable. With this context, the key purpose of this article is to examine the impact of stock market performance on firm's growth in order to address the pillar questions raised above by considering the South African stock market as a case study. The data utilized for this study includes quarterly observations ranging from 2001Q1 to 2015Q4. Time series methods are applied with the purpose of empirically testing the impact of stock market performance on firms' growth. The empirical testing process involves Johansen's co-integration technique which is employed in order to establish the co-integrating nature of the relationship between the two previously mentioned variables. In addition, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is utilized to ascertain the long-run dynamics of the link between the two variables. The evidence obtained from the empirical testing for a sample of sixty observations suggests that the performance of stock markets have a significant long-run impact on firms' growth. The insightful results we obtained using the parsimonious methods reinforce and significantly support the view that stock market performances have a substantial impact on firms' growth in the long run.

The whole world looked on as the passage of the Dayton Accords resulted in a ceasefire in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), however, the years to follow oversaw protracted conflict fuelled by ethnic tension, government corruption and attempts to create a peaceful economy. Globalization and the potential to build an economy was a significant incentive to motivate actors to work together in the process of rebuilding a stable infrastructure and opening the economy. Although BiH has progressed economically, certain indicators highlight that all is not as it should be. In this paper, therefore we examine the contributions of institutional quality and financial deepening to economic development in a post-conflict area like BiH. Using an endogenous growth model, the evidence suggests that financial deepening and institutional quality are necessary ingredients for economic performance in BiH.

The objective of the study is to analysis portfolio returns and the  performance of asset pricing models in the context of macroeconomic variables. Portfolios have been constructed on the basis of firms’ size; two equally weighted decile portfolios and two value weighed decile
portfolios representing the cluster of the largest and smallest firms are included in the analysis along with the market portfolio. Portfolio returns are regressed with the factor loadings of CAPM, three-factor and five-factor Fama and French asset pricing models. The relationship of portfolio returns and asset pricing models is evaluated in the presence of four macroeconomic variables namely interest rate, industrial production, producer price index and exchange rate; each
macroeconomic variable is introduced separately in threshold regression to the identify regime shift effect. Analyses are performed on monthly returns of securities listed on PSX during the period from 2000 to 2010. Results of the study have revealed that only the interest rate and
exchange rate are found to have a threshold effect on the portfolio returns. According to the results, the threshold effect is frequently captured through three factors Fama French model. Finally, the results also suggest that the threshold effect is only evident with large firms’
portfolios.

Once an investor has established his objectives, an asset allocation model establishes a correspondence between views and optimal portfolios. It is often useful to start an analysis by using a model to find the implied investor views for which an existing portfolio is optimal. The weights relative to benchmark or market portfolio define the directions of the investor’s views. By assuming the investor’s degree of risk aversion one can find the excess returns for which the portfolio is optimal (Black and Litterman, 1992).
Implied views are particularly important in terms of strategic asset allocation. In strategic asset allocation process it is not unusual for some asset classes to be left out of the portfolio or to be assigned less weights compared to market weights despite being in investment universe. BLM implied returns provide a solid method for assesing optimality of these decisions. It is interesting that neither academicians nor practicians paid little attention to this aspect of BLM in assesing the optimality of portfolios.

Colanta es una empresa representativa para el sector lácteo en Colombia, por lo cual es un referente para analizar su impacto financiero con relación al Tratado de Libre Comercio (TLC). El objetivo del proyecto que fundamenta este artículo es identificar los efectos en el desempeño financiero de Colanta de la entrada en vigencia del TLC entre Colombia y Estados Unidos, en el año 2012. Para ello se procedió con el cálculo de sus indicadores financieros, teniendo como base sus estados financieros para el periodo 2009-2016. Con los datos obtenidos se realizó el análisis de los indicadores y se complementó con un estudio del comportamiento del sector lácteo para contextualizar diversas razones que afectaron el desempeño financiero de Colanta. A pesar de la entrada en vigencia del TLC, los indicadores de liquidez, rentabilidad y endeudamiento no mostraron variaciones relevantes porque Colanta diversificó sus líneas de producción para tener alternativas en la oferta de sus productos en el mercado nacional y en el extranjero, logrando un crecimiento constante a nivel financiero, reflejado en las cifras presentadas en sus activos e ingresos durante los años objeto de análisis. La investigación es un estudio de caso y el método es descriptivo, cualitativo y cuantitativo o mixto.

Para reativar o crescimento econômico, enfrentar a guerra comercial em curso na economia mundial e impedir que o País sofra as consequências da inevitável explosão da bomba da dívida mundial, é preciso substituir o modelo econômico neoliberal que vem devastando a economia brasileira desde 1990 e, sobretudo, após 2014, pelo modelo nacional desenvolvimentista de abertura seletiva da economia brasileira que deveria ser posto em prática com base na planificação da economia nacional que assegurasse o crescimento econômico e o desenvolvimento do País em bases sustentáveis. Sem a adoção dessas medidas, o Brasil caminhará rumo à inevitável ruína econômica e social com graves repercussões de natureza política.

Afin de réactiver la croissance économique, de faire face à la guerre commerciale dans l’économie mondiale et d’empêcher le pays de subir les conséquences de la inévitable explosion de la dette mondiale, il est nécessaire de remplacer le modèle économique néolibéral qui a dévasté l’économie brésilienne depuis 1990 et, surtout, après 2014, par le modèle de développement national d'ouverture sélective de l'économie brésilienne qui devrait être mis en pratique sur la base d'une planification de l'économie nationale qui assurerait la croissance économique et le développement du pays sur une base continue. base durable. Sans l'adoption de ces mesures, le Brésil s'acheminera vers une ruine économique et sociale inévitable ayant de graves répercussions politiques.

In order to reactivate economic growth, to face the current commercial war in the world economy and prevent the country from suffering the consequences of the inevitable explosion of the world debt, it´s need to replace the neoliberal economic model that has devastated the Brazilian economy since 1990 and, above all, , after 2014, by the national development model of selective opening of the Brazilian economy that should be put into practice based on the planning of the national economy that would ensure economic growth and the development of the country on a sustainable basis. Without the adoption of these measures, Brazil will move towards inevitable economic and social ruin with serious repercussions of a political nature.

Un texto sobre economía destinado a adolescentes... Siempre he pensado que si no puedes explicar las grandes cuestiones económicas de forma que los jóvenes las puedan entender, es que ni tú mismo las entiendes. La crisis ha convertido la economía en tema central de nuestras conversaciones, y en una de las principales preocupaciones que dividen a nuestra sociedad. «¿Conseguiré escribirlo?», me pregunté. «Y si lo consigo, ¿será útil para los demás lectores? Espero que el hecho de que mi hija sea la más exigente de mis lectores me haya ayudado a escribir de una manera más clara y directa. En cuanto al contenido, decidí no centrarme en la realidad griega de los últimos tristes años —en los memorandos, la pobreza, la falta de dignidad con la que vivimos desde el año 2010—, sino poner el acento en los grandes asuntos de la economía social que nos afectan a todos en todas partes. De esta manera, el lector que lo desee podrá utilizarlo para ver con otros ojos el reciente colapso de nuestra economía social, así como las razones por las cuales los que ostentan el poder se niegan con obstinación a tomar las decisiones que llevarían a la salvación de nuestras sociedades en Grecia, en Europa y en todo el mundo.

Gianis (Yanis) Varoufakis fue ministro de Finanzas de Grecia en el primer gabinete del gobierno de Alexis Tsipras, desde el 27 de enero, hasta su dimisión, el 6 de julio de 2015. En octubre de 2018 Varoufakis anunció junto con el senador estadounidense Bernie Sanders el lanzamiento de la ONG denominada Progressive International que reúne a Naomi Klein, Cornel West, Fernando Haddad, Jeffrey Sachs, Niki Ashton y Ada Colau, entre otros estadistas. Es también candidato a las próximas elecciones griegas y a las elecciones europeas del 26 de mayo de 2019.

Indice:
Introducción 7
1. ¿Por qué tanta desigualdad? 9
2. Precio frente a valor 27
3. Deuda, beneficio, riqueza 49
4. Confianza, crisis, Estado 61
5. Máquinas embrujadas 83
6. Dos mercados edípicos 109
7. ¿Virus idiotas? 130
8. Dinero 153
A modo de epílogo: la píldora roja 182

The purpose of this article is to highlight the implications of capitalization and bank risk management on financial development in Chad before and after the banking (financial inclusion) of Chadian officials. To achieve this goal, we used Generalized Method of moment (GMM) and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimators on truncate data from Chadian banks during the period 2000-2015. Results show, Chadian banks recapitalize to reduce bank risks, while risks negatively affect financial development before the start of the banking process. During the period of the mass banking and despite the risk inherent to Chadian customers, the recapitalization of the banks however improved in weak proportion the financial development in Chad.

Muchos países de América Latina han realizado esfuerzos para favorecer la inclusión financiera de las micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas (MIPYMES), entendida en sus tres acepciones centrales: acceso,
uso y calidad. En tal sentido, los esfuerzos se concentran tanto en promover que un mayor número de firmas de menor tamaño puedan acceder al financiamiento como a lograr mejores condiciones
financieras que permitan favorecer la inversión. Los bancos de desarrollo cumplen un papel importante en estos aspectos y se han producido cambios relevantes en el papel y las características de dichas
instituciones. En particular, se observa la presencia de entramados institucionales que complementan el histórico papel de la banca de desarrollo, sumando asistencia no financiera, educación financiera y
sistemas de garantías.
Este trabajo analiza comparativamente los casos de cuatro países de la región: Colombia, Costa Rica, Perú y Argentina. No se trata de estudios exhaustivos sino de aportes complementarios en el marco del
proyecto titulado "Inclusión Financiera de las PYMES y políticas de innovación de la banca de desarrollo para el cambio productivo y estructural", a cargo de la Unidad de Financiamiento para el Desarrollo de la
División de Desarrollo Económico de la CEPAL. Los objetivos de este documento han sido analizar los esfuerzos que realiza la banca de desarrollo para favorecer la inclusión financiera, su
complementariedad con la banca privada, los esquemas de evaluación de sus programas y los desafíos
de la banca de segundo piso. En un sentido más general, se analiza la manera en que estos propósitos
se alinean con los objetivos de cambio estructural.

The incomparability of financial statements around the world is an obstacle to the effective and efficient running of the integrated global financial markets. This study examined cultural difference in the application of the IFRS between the accounting professionals in the Republic of Benin and Nigeria using the concept of uncertainty avoidance.  The study surveyed accounting professionals in the Republic of Benin and Nigeria to obtain their perception of application of IFRS using the concept of uncertainty avoidance. The population covers accounting professionals that have skills and expertise needed to prepare and present financial statements. The sample size of two hundred (200) respondents, 100 each was randomly selected from accounting professionals in both Republic of Benin and Nigeria. The data collected by structured questionnaires were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while two sample t-Test were employed as statistical tools to test the hypothesis. At 0.05 significant level and 198 degree of freedom, the estimated t-value was 10.97. Thus, there was a significant difference in the application of IFRS between the accounting professionals in the Republic of Benin and Nigeria using the concept of power distance. The research findings implied that the accounting professionals with similar cultural values apply IFRS similarly, while those differ in cultural values apply IFRS di