Contagion

During the recent global financial and Euro-area sovereign debt crises we witnessed a dramatic increase in the correlation between sovereign and bank default risk prices. In this paper we try to separate the portion of the correlation that is attributed to developments in common risk factors, which capture changes in the degree of risk aversion and the perceived amount of risk among international investors, from the impact of domestic or idiosyncratic risk factors. We employ a panel VAR model where all variables are treated as endogenous and the common risk factors are represented by widely used default and liquidity indexes. In this framework the residuals from the panel VAR model are associated with the effect that domestic/idiosyncratic factors have on sovereign and bank CDS prices. The main result we derive is that the European banking sector reacted homogeneously during the 2007:1–2009:12 period but after 2010, Euro-area Periphery countries became more “idiosyncratic”. Moreover, calculated directional volatility spillovers indicate that Eurozone periphery countries were net receivers and not net contributors to the financial instability caused by the subprime and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises.

The recent waves of political crises in Africa and the Middle East have inspired the debate over how political instability could pose a risk of financial contagion to emerging countries. With retrospect to the Kenyan political crisis, our findings suggest stock markets in Lebanon, Mauritius were contaminated while Nigeria experienced a positive spillover. Our results have two major implications. Firstly, we have confirmed existing consensus that African financial markets are increasingly integrated. Secondly, we have also shown that international financial market transmissions not only occur during financial crisis; political crises effects should not be undermined.

**Please click on the link below (https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/alambique/vol6/iss1/5/) to access the Alambique site and download the article.**

Argentinian director Alejandro Brugués’s 2011 Cuban-Spanish film Juan de los muertos and Mexican playwright Pedro Valencia’s 2013 play Con Z de zombie spring from similar roots: both initially place the blame for each country’s zombie apocalypse at the feet of the United States. In Brugués’s film, the accusation is clear but never proven: news reports interspersed through the film state that the country is being invaded by “dissidents” paid by the U.S. government, though there is no political or military U.S. presence in the film beyond the symbolic presence of the country’s flag. In Valencia’s Mexico, the cause is entirely unknown: Randy, the zombie-narrator-protagonist, does not know how it began. He does, however, take satisfaction in the knowledge that the plague is heading north, since the undocumented zombie immigrants would be impossible to contain: “[L]o que hubiera dado por ver a un zombie latino partiéndole su madre a la border patrol, ¡por fin se habrían metido su ley antiimigrante por el culo!” (I.2, unpaginated) Both texts propose the idea of contagion as a double-edged sword that can be an instrument of resistance or oppression; as such, they underline the political and economic structures that dictate how human life is valued (and not) in both post-revolutionary countries. Brugués and Valencia portray the 21st century Latin American zombie as a vector of and participant in this double-edged contagion, unraveling and complicating apocalyptic outbreak narratives while articulating sociopolitical critiques of their respective countries that operate on a national and global level.

When the suicide of Kate Spade was followed by Anthony Bourdain in the same week, a radio show I listened to a while back popped into my head. The discussion surrounded " copycat " suicides and the manner in which the media reports suicide that was statistically shown to be the cause of contagion of suicides. Social learning theory is another paradigm through which suicide contagion may be understood. According to the observational learning theory (Bandura, 1977), an individual who had memorized a celebrity's behaviour and had been sufficiently motivated could harbor suicidal ideation even over a longer period of time. I thought about the chains of events of suicide in celebrities. I theorize that the biggest link to this chain began from Robin Williams who died by suicide, according to Kate Spade's older sister she was fixated on his death. Robin Williams is a legendary human being to all different types of people of religions, cultures, on a global scale—myself included.

In recent years, the Islamic State terror organization has become notorious for its evil brutality. The brutal nature of its propaganda (distributed mostly online) inspires Jihadi sympathizers around the world, encouraging them to use violence against " the enemies of Islam ". This form of violent behavior has also been adopted and imitated by others – including non-Muslim individuals and groups – regardless of their geographic location, worldview, religion, ethnicity, or nationality. Drawing from numerous examples, this article illustrates two processes: first, the " mainstreaming " of beheadings among Jihadists, and second, the imitation of this method (decapitation) by individuals motivated by other kinds of extremism.

The integration of financial markets has caused the country's economy and stock markets to interact more and more. The global crisis, which started in 2008 and whose effects are still unavailable, has also affected other countries' stock exchanges due to the fact that it originated in developed countries. Negative indicators created by the contagion effect on financial markets negatively affected the economies with the decrease of portfolio investments and the decrease of trade volumes. In this process, many studies have been carried out to investigate how integrated the markets are. The effects of the crisis in US and the dollar exchange rate on developing country currencies are still under investigation. In the study in order to reveal the relationship between financial markets, Turkey and between BRICS countries stock indexes, short-and long-run equilibrium relationship was examined. For this purpose, between January 2003 and March 2016, index values of country stock exchanges were examined by Engle Granger, Johansen and Gregory Hansen cointegration test.

Libros, papeles e impresos de a pliego o en cuarto, octavo, folio; notas, consignas, quejas. Emancipatorias. Personales. Funerarias. Ideas de libertad y de sedición, de derrocamiento. Versiones contrarias de asuntos locales que circulaban de mano en mano, pegados en muros y columnas, postes y puertas. Papeles peligrosos e incendia rios, virulentos. Perseguidosy borrados. Reducidos a la mínima expresión. Durante el periodo colonial los castigos se normaron severos para quien escribía papeles y también eran “incursos todos los que las oyeren leer, o supieren que existen en poder de alguna persona, a quien tendrán la obligación de denunciar” (Amar, 1809).

https://publicaciones.banrepcultural.org/index.php/boletin_cultural/article/view/4995

In existing paper they had used a full month of Twitter data to evaluate SEISMIC .In which the original data set contains over 3.2 billion tweets and retweets on Twitter from Octobor 7 to November 7, 2011.Also they only kept tweets such that it has at least 50 retweets, the text of the tweet does not contain a pound sign # (hashtag), and the language of the original poster is English. There are 166,076 tweets satisfying these criteria in the end.So here we are going to propose the mining of tweets with a particular #hashtags and going to formulate the number of retweets in an efficient manner ,so that it will be more efficient in terms of organizing particular categories while mining the popularity of retweets. Karthick.D | Dr. G. Vadivu"Seismic: A Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Predicting Tweet Popularity using Hashtags" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-1 | Issue-5 , August 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd2366.pdf